Old WRs are balling out at historically high rates and it’s like none of you even care.
OK, sorry for coming at you a bit harshly there, but seriously, this is getting ridiculous.
There are a whopping four WRs posting top-12 PPR per game production who have either already lived on Earth for 30 years or will have done so by the end of 2023:
- Bills WR Stefon Diggs (30 in November): 55 rec-678 yards-6 TD, 22.4 PPR points per game (WR2)
- Chargers WR Keenan Allen (31): 46-574-4, 22.3 (WR3)
- Panthers WR Adam Thielen (33): 49-509-4, 21.1 (WR6)
- Rams WR Cooper Kupp (30): 17-295-1, 18.2 (WR11)
And this doesn’t even include Buccaneers WR Mike Evans (30, WR14) or Raiders WR Davante Adams (31 in December, WR16). These dudes are partying like it’s 2019 again.
This phenomenon is truly rarer than even Vincent Vega’s steaks: Only 14 WRs with an age starting with the number three managed to post top-12 per-game PPR production with a minimum of eight games played from 2013 to 2022 — and never more than three in a season.
While young studs like Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase and A.J. Brown are certainly making their mark, veteran WRs keeping on keeping on into their 30s is starting to become a trend.
Let’s dive into the aforementioned top four performers and discern why things have gone so right for them — and whether Father Time will come knocking on their door before the end of this season.
Stefon Diggs, WR - Bills
The longtime stud WR really hasn’t missed yet in 2023 on his way to averaging career-high marks in both receptions per game (7.9) and yards per game (96.9).
Overall, Diggs is the NFL’s only WR with top-13 PPR production in six games this season. He joins Tyreek Hill and Puka Nacua as the only WRs with five top-12 performances if you want to call me out on using an arbitrary top-13 disclaimer to blend this narrative to my own personal agenda.
Either way: The wildest part about Diggs’ production has been the reality that he and Josh Allen have left quite a bit of meat on the bone along the way. Just four players have racked up over 400 unrealized air yards this season on their incomplete targets:
- Chris Olave (632, lol)
- Marquise Brown (488)
- Diggs (444)
- A.J. Brown (433)
Diggs isn't always without fault — he's dropped a league-high 11 passes since Week 1 of last season — but there have also been some misses by Allen that could have really helped light up the box score.
Ultimately, Diggs' 33.8% target share trails only Cooper Kupp (42.3%) this season: The ex-Vikings WR is the clear-cut No. 1 pass-game option inside of the league’s sixth-most pass-happy offense in non-garbage-time situations.
A career-high mark in yards per route run (2.55) alongside his career-best targets per route run rate (29.9%) helps prove that Diggs isn’t simply getting by with volume alone — but regardless there’s little reason to believe that part of the equation is on the verge of regression anyway.
Don’t expect his weekly status as an upside fantasy WR1 to go anywhere anytime soon: Kings stay kings, and Diggs’ entire tenure in Buffalo has been pretty damn royal.
Keenan Allen, WR - Chargers
Allen is not only averaging a career-high 95.7 yards per game on top of his most receptions per game (7.7) since 2015, but the veteran is doing so on the best per-route (2.4), per-reception (12.5) and per-target (9.0) efficiency that we've seen in more than half a decade.
The biggest change in Allen's game this season has been the presence of more downfield opportunities. A career-high 21.4% of Allen's targets have come on passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield; he didn't even reach a double-digit rate in all but three of his first 10 career seasons.
Things have been objectively great for Allen’s fantasy managers … except for the reality that Justin Herbert’s performance has fallen off a cliff over his past three games:
Justin Herbert | PFF Pass Grade | YPA | Adj Cmp % | Passer Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Weeks 1-3 | 73.7 (No. 12) | 7.8 (No. 5) | 78.5% (No. 8) | 112.9 (No. 2) |
Weeks 4-7 | 66.0 (No. 18) | 7.2 (No. 18) | 64.7% (No. 34) | 75.9 (No. 30) |
A fractured middle finger on his left hand hasn't helped. Nor have matchups against the Raiders, Cowboys and Chiefs after getting to feast on the Dolphins, Titans and Vikings over the first three weeks of the season.
But still: That adjusted completion rate (accounts for drops) ranks dead last among all QBs with at least 75 dropbacks over the past month of action. Herbert has missed a LOT of gimme throws to Allen in their last two games together specifically.
Of course, we have far more evidence than not that Herbert is a *very* good professional QB, and target competition for Allen remains at a near-all-time low with Mike Williams (knee, IR) done for the season and Quentin Johnston struggling to get anything going to start his career.
Once again, we’re looking at a longtime stud receiving combining elite volume with similar sky-high efficiency. Don't be surprised if this duo gets back to partying like it's September again in Week 8 against a Bears defense that has posted bottom-eight numbers in TD rate, passer rating and contested target rate allowed this season.
Adam Thielen, WR - Panthers
Thielen’s Next-Gen Stats route trees are a good illustration of just how involved the 33-year-old veteran has been on a weekly basis this season. Overall, the Panthers’ clear-cut No. 1 WR is on pace to rack up a career-high 167 targets just one year removed from only seeing 107 pass-game opportunities in a full 17 games.
Volume is the biggest piece of the puzzle, but additional optimism is warranted thanks to the reality that Thielen has proved capable of supplying WR1 goodness with both Bryce Young and Andy “The Red Rocket” Dalton under center. Imagine the possible ceiling for Thielen if the former QB finds a way to, you know, not rank dead last in yards per attempt (5.3).
Oct 1, 2023; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Carolina Panthers wide receiver Adam Thielen (19) reacts in the third quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
Ultimately, the Panthers’ slot maven has the sort of low-aDOT role (8.1 yards, 58th among 69 qualified WR) and sure hands to believe this success can continue. Thielen finds himself atop the top of the leaderboard when it comes to most receptions without a drop this season.
- Thielen (49 receptions without a drop
- Chris Olave (39)
- Darren Waller (35)
- Michael Thomas (34)
- Kendrick Bourne (34)
Is featuring Thielen as your offense’s end-all, be-all No. 1 option in the year 2023 the sign of a highly lethal NFL offense? Probably not, and the Panthers accordingly rank as a bottom-10 offense in points per game, yards per play and EPA per play through seven weeks — just realize Thielen continues to look a lot like the engine of a unit not exactly overflowing with additional pass-game options who are demanding more work.
I’d bet against Thielen maintaining top-six production the rest of the way, but a legit WR1 finish is firmly in his range of outcomes with a clean bill of health thanks to nothing more than that sweet, sweet fantasy-friendly volume.
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Cooper Kupp, WR - Rams
Kupp has played three games this season, posting two typical (for him) world-beating efforts before last week’s dud:
- Week 5: 8-118-0, PPR WR12
- Week 6: 7-148-1, WR4
- Week 7: 2-29-0, WR48
The “problem” is that Kupp suddenly finds himself with more of a sidekick than he’s seen in years in the form of rookie WR Puka Nacua. QB Matthew Stafford has been more than happy keeping both members of his breakfast club heavily involved in the offense over the past three weeks:
- Kupp: 17-295-1 (28 targets)
- Nacua: 19-251-1 (28)
Simultaneous 35% target shares have enabled both receivers to post top-12 PPR production in Weeks 4 to 7 despite the offense only averaging 19 points per game during that stretch. Life remains pretty great for each in fantasy land.
Yes, the Nacua and overall scoring upside factors could certainly continue to keep Kupp out of his familiar position as fantasy’s overall WR1 in PPR points per game. Also yes, fantasy managers should hardly be overly concerned with an easy top-12 finish, something that remains firmly on Kupp’s radar as long as the injury Gods leave him and Stafford alone.
So yeah: Not exactly expecting any of these early-season studs to necessarily fall off the face of the map thanks to the reality that:
- Each is living on truly elite volume at the moment.
- All four are demonstrating similarly great per-route efficiency.
- Three of the four (sorry Thielen) should have something close to top-tier performance under center more weeks than not moving forward.
Thielen and Kupp have indeed already spent time on the injury report this season; just realize there’s a difference between being injury prone and actively injured.
Here’s to hoping 2023’s elderly stud WRs keep on proving that age is nothing but a number.
