A lot of wild stuff happens during the course of any given football play. After all: Twenty-two finely tuned athletic machines run into each other while playing with a ball that isn’t even round.

This is why fantasy football managers rely heavily on a player’s projected utilization when making decisions. And they should! Player usage is the biggest piece of the start/sit puzzle — and Fantasy Life accordingly is devoted to giving you the very best tools around to accomplish just that (and they’re free!).

However, a player simply having that dog in ‘em also counts for something. I’m talking about the RBs capable of turning a three-yard gain into a 60-yard TD, the WRs who turn 50/50 contested catches into 80/20 propositions: The players capable of consistently making more with less thanks to the reality that they are really f*cking good at the game of football.

Of course, sometimes these “overperforming” players turn into pumpkins after having their sample sizes increase. Regression is a helluva drug in fantasy land — so it’s important to discern which early-season phenoms are here to stay, and which might have already put forward their best performances of the season.

What follows is a breakdown of what players have produced the most above expectation and whether or not we should expect their absurd efficiency to sustain throughout the rest of 2023.

49ers QB Brock Purdy and Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa

It’s honestly easier to just discuss these two together because they are indeed each viewed as “system” QBs surrounded by baller playmakers in an offense designed by some of the very best offensive minds that the world has to offer.

A lot of that is indeed true, but guess what: Style points don’t matter in fantasy land, and both signal-callers rank among the league’s best in nearly any passing metric measuring the ability to pick up as much yardage as possible per pass attempt (which is kind of the whole point of throwing the football, ya know?).

Among 48 qualified QBs:

  • EPA per dropback: Purdy: +0.38 (No. 1), Tua: +0.37 (No. 2)
  • Completion percentage over expected: Purdy: +3.8% (No. 9), Tua: +7.1% (No. 3)
  • Passer rating: Purdy: 111.2 (No. 2), Tua: 114.1 (No. 1)
  • Yards per attempt: Purdy: 8.5 (No. 2), Tua: 9.5 (No. 1)

This efficiency has led to great fantasy returns thus far, with Purdy (18 fantasy points per game, QB13) and (especially) Tagovailoa (21, QB4) emerging as consistent high-end fantasy performers despite their respective lack of rushing floors.

The “whatever the grand prize of your fantasy league is” dollar question: Can they keep it up?

Brock Purdy

Oct 15, 2023; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) throws a pass during the first half against the Cleveland Browns at Cleveland Browns Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

In Purdy’s case, a lot of that could come down to the health of Deebo Samuel (shoulder) and Christian McCaffrey (oblique). Neither is tentatively expected to miss TOO much time, and the team doesn't exactly have the world's stiffest defensive matchups against the Vikings and Bengals before their Week 9 bye.

Bad weather, mid game injuries and a badass Browns defense didn’t make life easy for Purdy last week. He still missed on plenty of throws in his own right — but this remains an offense with two rather dope available playmakers in Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle.

Don’t expect Purdy’s standing as a weekly borderline QB1 to go anywhere in his winnable upcoming matchups before he really gets grooving again with a more healthy supporting cast (hopefully) available by Week 10.

Similar optimism is warranted for Tua: This Dolphins offense is second to none when it comes to pre-snap high-jinx maneuvers to help set their playmakers up for success: Nobody has utilized pre-snap shift/motion on a higher percentage of their plays than the Dolphins (86.1%). The 49ers (79.4%) are the only other team even over 75%.

Good luck slowing down this passing game as long as Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Mike McDaniel are healthy: Continue to treat Tua as the upside QB1 he’s been in both fantasy land and real life this season.

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Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert

The 31-year-old speedster has already racked up 574 total yards and 11 TDs (!) in just six games, good for a 17-game pace of 1,626 yards and 31 TDs. Not too shabby!

Yes, Mostert has achieved a lot of this with nothing other than hot, nasty, badass speed. His top speed of 21.62 miles per hour on this 43-yard TD is the fifth-highest mark by any ball carrier in 2023, while his 23.09 and 22.73 MPH marks from 2020 remain the top two fastest recorded times since Next-Gen Stats began tracking the metric in 2018.

Also yes, Mostert deserves credit for posting top-six rates in both missed tackles forced per rush (0.33, No. 3 among 53 qualified RB) and yards after contact per carry (4, No. 6). Next-Gen's  No. 4 RB in rushing yards over expected per carry (+1.71): Mostert has been great even independent of the Dolphins’ ridiculously fantasy-friendly offensive environment.

Chart

The usage here dipped a bit when De’Von Achane (knee, IR) was coming on, and the eventual return of Jeff Wilson (finger/midsection) could lower the week-to-week ceiling just a bit. It'd make sense if Mostert doesn't boom quite as frequently in upcoming tough matchups against the Eagles, Patriots and Chiefs.

That said: Mostert will continue to warrant weekly upside RB1 consideration as long as he remains in line for weekly 15-plus touch workloads inside of the game’s top-ranked scoring offense.

Seemingly the only thing capable of slowing down the Dolphins is the wrath of the injury Gods; selling high — and I mean high — is only really recommended on rosters with a true need to add extra high-end pieces across multiple spots.

Jets RB Breece Hall

The case against Hall is simple: He probably won't average 6.4 yards per carry the rest of the season because that's really f*cking hard to sustain, and scoring opportunities don’t figure to be overly plentiful in this Zach Wilson-led attack.

The case for Hall is also simple: The Jets have finally unleashed their stud second-year RB as the clear-cut leader of what was truly a three-way committee backfield for most of the first month of the season.

Breece Hall

Hall's average of +3.1 PPR points above expectation could very well regress down the stretch, but that difference could also be negated by a (Ned) stark increase in his average of just 10 expected PPR points per game — just the 35th-highest mark among all RBs this season.

The four key elements of any great fantasy asset come down to hopefully elite:

  1. Volume
  2. Talent
  3. Offensive environment
  4. Matchup

Volume is at the top for a reason and also serves as the prime evidence for why Hall managers should confidently strap in and enjoy the RB1 ride the rest of the way, even if the going gets a bit tougher in the efficiency department down the stretch.

Bears WR D.J. Moore

I wrote that Moore was a sell-high candidate last week for the following three key reasons:

  1. This wouldn’t be the first time Moore experienced some early-season booms followed by a prolonged stretch of mid-season busts.
  2. We have a far larger sample size of Justin Fields and this passing game being rather bad than we do of them being the sort of world-beaters the league had seen over the past two weeks.
  3. Word for word: “While I’d never wish an injury on anyone, Fields has missed multiple games in each of his first two seasons, meaning there’s at least some chance Moore has to deal with the Tyson Bagent experience at some point this season.”

Sadly, the latter sign of caution has come to fruition, with Bagent expected to start under center for at least Week 6 while Fields tends to a dislocated right thumb.

Only Terry McLaurin rivals Moore when it comes to their generation's Andre Johnson of consistently being forced to catch passes from one mid-to-bad QB after another.

Ideally, Moore can still provide some booms thanks to the reality that he's quite good at his job, although he doesn’t exactly have the world’s most fantasy-friendly schedule before the team's Week 13 bye.

  • Week 7 vs. Raiders: No. 10 best defense in limiting fantasy points per game to QBs
  • Week 8 at Chargers: No. 32
  • Week 9 at Saints: No. 7
  • Week 10 vs. Panthers: No. 15
  • Week 11 at Lions: No. 14
  • Week 12 at Vikings: No. 21

The (hopefully) short-term absence of Fields won’t do DJM managers any favors on the field or in the trade streets; I’d try to at least wait for the ex-Panthers talent to put together something close to another boom before attempting to trade him at anything close to what his value was this time last week. 

Texans WR Nico Collins

This C.J. Stroud-led passing game is smashing preseason expectations at the moment, thanks in large part to Collins stepping up as a legit No. 1 WR through six weeks of action.

Seriously: It’s tough to find an advanced metric that paints the third-year talent as anything other than one of the league’s most efficient

 players at the position:

  • PFF Receiving Grade: 87.3 (No. 6 among 64 qualified WRs)
  • Yards per route run: 3.01 (No. 3)
  • Yard per reception: 18.9 (No.  2)
  • Passer rating when targeted: 135.5 (No. 4)

Hell, Collins (+3.4) is tied with Deebo Samuel (+3.4) for the most yards after the catch above expectation this season.

The eye test backs up what the numbers are telling us: Collins is balling.

Similar to our discussion on Breece Hall: The warranted optimism surrounding Collins’ ability to keep on keeping on down the stretch boils down to the reality that his volume should be at an elite level moving forward, even if he experiences a decline in efficiency. While teammate Robert Woods surprisingly holds the team lead in total targets (43 vs. 42), nobody on the Texans comes close to his 30.5% air-yard share — a mark which is on par with fellow early-season phenoms like Puka Nacua (32.2%), Adam Thielen (31.5%) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (30.6%).

There is potential for this to turn into more of a 1.A/1.B/1.C situation with Tank Dell (concussion) back after the team’s Week 7 bye; just realize Collins is fully deserving of that 1.A spot thanks to the reality that he’s been the Texans’ best skill-position talent all season long.

Maybe Collins doesn't quite maintain his standing as the WR14 in PPR points per game the rest of the way, but the talent he and Stroud have displayed makes it tough to see him falling out of the WR2 ranks throughout the rest of 2023.

Lions TE Sam LaPorta

The rookie sensation isn’t just balling out relative to other first-year options at the position — LaPorta is already making a name for himself as one of the league’s most efficient TEs regardless of experience:

  • PFF receiving grade: 72.9 (No. 2 among 30 qualified TEs)
  • Yards per route run: 1.93 (No. 2)
  • Yards per reception: 11.2 (No. 8)
  • Yards after the catch per reception: 4.9 (No. 9)
  • Targets per route run: 25% (No. 2)

Those second-place finishes trail only Taylor Swift’s boyfriend. Not too shabby!

The return of Jameson Williams and a calf injury did nothing to slow LaPorta's usage last week, as his 11 targets and 81% route participation rate tied his season-high marks.

This Ben Johnson-schemed Lions offense has posted top-five marks in virtually every efficiency category through six weeks of action; we’re seeing a great example of just how bright a young talent can shine when paired with a capable QB and top-tier play-caller.

Only Travis Kelce (17.7) and Mark Andrews (14.3) have scored more PPR points per game than LaPorta (13.3) this season.

I'd probably take T.J. Hockenson (12.7) and George Kittle (9.6) over the rookie for the rest of the way, but even then: You don’t need more than one hand to count the number of players at the position you would rather have on the fantasy squad during the stretch run of 2023.

Overperformers