With the chaos of the 2023 NFL Draft behind us, our biggest offseason task awaits: figuring out how to value the rookies.
Draft capital is part of the equation, but a player’s landing spot — and place on the depth chart — can also lead to some fun narratives. Here are two rookies that I’ll be targeting in best ball drafts with, of course, some analytical reasoning to back up my thoughts.
WR Jordan Addison to the Vikings (23rd Overall)
OK, so I made part of my job easy. Jordan Addison’s a no-brainer.
Dwain McFarland’s rookie model loved him (85th percentile, WR2), Eliot Crist mocked the former Trojan to the Chargers in the first round, and I highlighted his efficiency independent of alignment in a pre-draft rookie profile. A first-round selection only confirms that Addison has talent.
But we can find fantasy value at the intersection of talent and situation. And while the Vikings showed us with their wallet that they agree Addison can be an instant playmaker, Minnesota’s offensive situation lends itself to the USC product becoming fantasy relevant as early as Week 1.
Kirk Cousins hit a career-high in pass attempts, and the Vikings finished sixth in pass rate over expected (PROE) last season. However, it’s not just coach Kevin O’Connell letting Kirko Chainz sling it all over the yard that’ll boost Addison’s fantasy stock: It’s the types of targets he’ll earn.
After the trade for T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota soared to third in target rate to the TE position in obvious passing situations and ranked 12th in EPA per play on third- and fourth-down attempts. But, with Kirk’s decision-making, relying on a TE running shallow routes has obvious (read: painful) drawbacks.
Addison instantly steps in as, at worst, the third option for Cousins to start the season, with more looks coming his way throughout the year (RIP K.J. Osborn’s fantasy value). His separation skills will earn Kirk’s trust and raise his weekly floor.
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RB Chase Brown to the Bengals (163rd Overall)
I didn’t have to dig deep for this one, either, because I’m a Bengals fan, but Chase Brown isn’t on everyone’s radar… yet. Regardless, let’s stick with the “intersection of talent and situation” quip for a bit.
Feb 2, 2023; Mobile, AL, USA; National running back Chase Brown of Illinois (2) runs the ball during the third day of Senior Bowl week at Hancock Whitney Stadium in Mobile. Mandatory Credit: Vasha Hunt-USA TODAY Sports
There’s no doubt that Brown’s rushing skillset lags behind his classmates. He split the totes in the Illini backfield until his final season … at age 23. Even then, he wasn’t the most powerful runner. His two-year samples of missed tackles forced per attempt (0.25) and yards after contact per attempt (2.87) sit below the class average. So, Brown’s situation needs to make up for his talent deficit.
Let’s take a stroll down Narrative Street.
Joe Mixon was a draft winner, as Cincinnati didn’t sink significant draft capital into replacing Samaje Perine. But Brown’s final-season stats hint at a profile similar to the Bengals’ former backup. And Perine began to eat into Mixon’s workload late last season.
Chris Evans never saw more than five snaps in a single game and remained inactive through the playoffs. Brown should be able to bypass the former sixth-rounder and slide in as the complement to Mixon on a potent Bengals offense in ’23.
