Are These 2022 Overachievers Still Worth It? Prolly Not…
Avoid the Disappointment
Last week’s exercise about chasing hyped players was fun.
Probabilistic reasoning should be a part of any drafter's process as the market sways with the latest news. But I only considered positive outcomes for some of 2022’s overachievers during the upcoming season. And, with free agency already heating up, we’ll need to cut through the hype and avoid over-drafting players based on their ’22 totals alone.
Josh Jacobs
- Draft Rank RB24
- EOS Rank RB3
Betting against the previous year’s rushing king usually feels like an easy sell. I usually cast a side-eye at RBs of Josh Jacobs’s archetype. And, no, my concern isn’t born out of fear of injury like last season's ‘CMC vs. JT’ debate.
Although, it’s not like there’s a positive track record for guys getting the volume necessary to rack up over 2,000 all-purpose yards.
Adrian Peterson’s 2012 campaign (399 touches and 319 the following year) is the closest example to an effective season after handling so much work the prior year. Arian Foster (2010) and Steven Jackson (2010) also gave us usable volume, but seeing their names only reminds us of a mostly bygone era.
Regardless, let’s assume (hope) Jacobs makes it through all of ’23.
He, more or less, did it in 2022. However, the Raiders’ bellcow would need to play at a similar level to keep up with his RB10 cost. Which, for him, would be another personal best.
Jacobs was top 12 in almost every metric, from Rush Yards Over Expected to Forced Missed Tackles (min. 90 carries). Unsurprisingly, he hit a three-year high for most. All except for TPRR.
In a season where Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow missed a combined 15 games, Jacobs saw fewer targets on a per-route basis.
So even if he’s improved at the aspects he can control (e.g., fighting through contact, and timing to get to the second level), his usage as a receiver is still (literally) out of his hands. And so is his team situation.
The Derek-Carr-sized void at QB isn’t as alarming, assuming Josh McDaniels can lure either of his former signal-callers (Jimmy Garoppolo or Jacoby Brissett) to Vegas.
Both had a higher EPA per play than Carr last season, although Jimmy G had some help. But the Raiders’ protection unit should be a source of uncertainty. Las Vegas returned three of five offensive line starters and was one of the most effective blocking groups in the league. Any drop in play from them affects the new quarterback, effectively capping Jacobs’s ceiling without a larger role on the offense.
So again, injuries due to workload aren’t something we can predict. And with the team tagging Jacobs, his volume won’t be an issue. But given the team’s personnel turnover and his prior history of inefficiency, a step down from the last season’s heights must be in the range of outcomes.
Alternative Option(s): Rhamondre Stevenson (RB12), Najee Harris (RB14)
Christian Kirk
- Draft Rank WR41
- EOS Rank WR11
Christian Kirk was one of two Jaguars drafted in the Top 100 last season.
Jacksonville handed the former Cardinal a ‘shocking’ deal, and its value gave us insight into his status on the team. He got WR1-like money on a team lacking young talent. And, for a time, his opportunities reflected the contract.
For the first two months, Kirk was everywhere. He led the team in looks from Trevor Lawrence, cracked the Top 12 rankings once, and stayed in the weekly top 20 conversation.
But the team only had two wins. Something had to change about the offense, and over the back half of the season, it did.
Weekly air yard shares for Zay Jones and Evan Engram saw an uptick From Weeks 9-18 relative to the start of the season. Their increased involvement didn’t relegate Kirk to a WR3. However, it made him more a part of the offense rather than its leader.
Jones overtook Kirk in TPRR as the sixth-year vet became Lawrence’s downfield target under duress.
Engram led the team in yards after the catch, and his ability to create became a detriment to opposing defenses. As a result, Kirk retained his coveted slot role, but his aDOT fell from 10.5 to 8.8. So, he still owns the short area of the field, but his intermediate and deep utilization becomes a question for 2023.
In his final full season with Atlanta, Calvin Ridley accrued 68.6% of his targets at a depth of 10 air yards or more. It was 59.4% the prior year. Kirk’s WR24 ADP accounts for not just the volume but the quality/type of looks he’ll earn next season.
However, with another intermediate option for Lawrence, a potential negative shift in Kirk’s usage should play into our decision to draft him.
Alternative Option(s): Tyler Lockett (WR32)
Cole Kmet
- Draft Rank TE11
- EOS Rank TE7
I’ll probably get kicked out of a group chat or two for this one. Cole Kmet is like the movie “Snatch” or “The Boondock Saints.” He’s a cult classic.
You’re either pining for him to live up to his athletic testing or couldn’t care less. There’s no in-between. Drafters will shrug off his TE13 price as inconsequential and give him another chance in ’23. But I’m out unless we hear more positive news out of Chicago.
Let’s start with Kmet’s volume. At a 19.3% target rate, he had the eighth-highest share amongst all TEs last season (min. 30 targets). However, Kmet’s seasonal mark doesn’t reflect his weekly inconsistencies as a target earner or receiver.
Sure, Kmet showed some flashes weaving through traffic. But his valleys outnumbered the performance peaks. We only got three top-12 weeks from Kmet on a team that gave meaningful snaps to Dante Pettis and traded for Chase Claypool. David Montgomery posted a higher TPRR and was more efficient as a pass-catcher than Kmet.
But my biggest concern, relative to Kmet’s position, is his red-zone usage.
I’d typically use target share, but the Bears were 31st in red-zone pass rate over expectation last season. (yikes)
Regardless, Kmet sitting at 18th between two guys that missed multiple games last season should give us pause.
Plus, with Justin Fields under center, there’s nothing to suggest Head Coach Matt Eberflus’ tendency will change in his second year. Kmet might be the best pass-catching talent on the team, but the team’s pass rate and his inefficiencies as a receiver are a detriment to his fantasy value, even at a low cost.
Alternative Option(s): Chigoziem Okonkwo (TE15)
