Fantasy Questions: The Biggest Questions for the Divisional Round.

The Divisional Round is officially upon us. Let’s keep our heads on a swivel out there and make some well-informed fantasy and betting decisions to provide food for our families and loved ones. Cool? Cool.

Presenting: eight questions ahead of Saturday and Sunday’s action mostly centered around every remaining playoff team’s biggest potential mismatches for better or worse. Check out this thread for the full charts used to accomplish this very task.

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (BAL -9, 43.5)

Are there ANY weaknesses here for C.J. Stroud and company to exploit?

Put simply: This Ravens defense is scary good. First in points per game allowed, second in EPA allowed per play and third in yards allowed per play, there’s a reason why defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald is one of the hottest head coaching names out there at the moment.

This begs the question: What is it that makes this group so good?

A few higher-level observations on anyone’s idea of one of the league’s very best defensive units:

• The Ravens are one of just five defenses to play nickel on 80% of their opponent's snaps, yet have featured eight-plus defenders in the box just 13.1% of the time.
• Their biggest coverage tendency is Cover-6 (16.3%, 4th), but even that's a combo coverage featuring Cover-2 on one side of the field and Cover-4 on the other. Generally, this group mixes things up quite a bit: This was a top-five defense in utilizing some sort of pre-to-post snap disguise with their middle-of-the-field safeties.
• They also run plenty of Cover-0 (6%, 6th) to force offenses to account for their robust blitz packages. While the Ravens surprisingly only blitzed at the league's 19th-highest rate (27.5%) on pass plays this season, they ran simulated pressures (4-man rush blitzes) at the league's fifth-highest rate (27.6%).

The Ravens combine the league’s lightest boxes with plenty of coverage disguise and complex blitz packages to create negative plays AND prevent big ones better than just about anyone out there.

Kudos to Matthew Stafford for putting on one helluva display back in Week 14 against this group, but otherwise passing attacks of all shapes and sizes have largely been shut down. This included Stroud during his NFL debut, as the Ravens held him to his second-worst marks of the season in essentially any efficiency metric.

Obviously Stroud, Nico Collins and company aren’t the same offense that they were all the way back in early September — and they also just got done largely eviscerating a Browns defense that also ranks highly in many of these same defensive metrics.

That said: It’s worth wondering if Houston’s best path to success might just be attempting to exploit what’s been a fairly leaky run defense.

Don’t get it twisted: It’s not a coincidence that most of the league’s best overall defenses are also much better against the pass than the run. It is 2024 after all (still feels weird to type that).

Still, virtually the only sustained offensive success against the Ravens has come on the ground:

• EPA allowed per run play: -0.99 (12th)
• Yards allowed per carry: 4.5 (tied for 24th)
• Yards allowed before contact per carry: 1.2 (14th)
• Yards allowed after contact per carry: 3 (28th)
• Explosive run play rate allowed: 14.1% (27th)

The Texans haven't posted a positive dropback over expected rate for seven consecutive games, leading to Devin Singletary being a bonafide workhorse on his way to racking up 1,091 total yards and four TDs during the regular season alone. One of just seven RBs with at least 900 total yards in each of the past five seasons, I like Singletary’s alternant rushing lines of 70+ (+165) and 80+ (+250) yards over at DraftKings Sportsbook.

What makes this Ravens offense different from past editions?

The overall effectiveness isn’t necessarily better than what we saw in 2019, or even 2020 for that matter.

EPA per play 2019-2023:

Still, this is a team that has gone from throwing the ball on a league-low 50.1% of their non-garbage time snaps in 2019 to 26th (57.9%) in 2023. Maybe not night and day, but enough to put together the league’s fourth-best scoring offense during a relatively down year across the league.

Things have been especially lethal in recent weeks, as the Ravens peeled off 37, 23, 33 and 56 points during their final four games with Lamar Jackson under center.

Dec 31, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) throws during the during the first quarter against the Miami Dolphins at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

However, this Texans defense has also saved their best football for last, holding the Titans (3), Colts (19) and Browns (14) under 20 points in their last three games since getting No. 3 overall pick Will Anderson back from injury. Of course, the league’s 17th-ranked defense in EPA allowed per play has never been confused as an elite unit this season; just realize this doesn’t exactly qualify as a smash spot.

The first matchup between these squads back in Week 1 didn’t exactly feature fireworks for Jackson and company on their way to scoring 25 points, as Houston actually limited the Ravens to a league-low 265 total yards of offense (excluding Week 18 with former Pro Bowl QB Tyler Huntley under center).

Look for the Ravens to (again) do everything in their power to get their most explosive playmaker Zay Flowers the football in space. He caused all kinds of problems for this Texans defense back in Week 1 (87 total yards on 11 touches).

I’ll be putting some of my hard-earned dollars on Flowers OVER 51.5 receiving yards against a Texans defense that totaled the third-most missed tackles of any group in the league this regular season.

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (SF -9.5, 50.5)

Do the Packers have a path to success against Nick Bosa and company?

Similar to most of the league’s top defenses: San Francisco boasts a largely consensus top-five overall and pass defense that hasn’t been quite as solid against the run.

Don’t be surprised if Packers head coach Matt LaFleur continues to embrace the rushing attack early and often. As much love as Jordan Love (ha!) has deservingly earned with his brilliant second-half play, this has been a run-first offense in recent weeks ever since their home loss to the Buccaneers.

Overall, Green Bay has posted dropback over expected rates of -9%, -2%, -2% and -5% over the past four weeks. Longtime stud RB Aaron Jones is accordingly BALLING:

• Week 16: 21 carries-127 yards-0 TD
• Week 17: 20-120-0
• Week 18: 22-111-0
• Wild Card: 21-118-3

Otherwise, the Packers’ best bet might just be attacking this defense before the pass rush can get home. The 49ers have been fairly average in terms of explosive pass play rate (10.3%, 15th), yards per attempt (6.4, 18th) and EPA per play allowed (+0.048, 16th) when opposing QBs have gotten the ball out in 2.5 or fewer seconds — an area in which Love earned the third-highest PFF passing grade of any QB behind Tua Tagovailoa and Jared Goff.

And who are the Packers’ two leading receivers in target rate when Love gets the ball out that quickly? Romeo Doubs (20%) and Jayden Reed (17%)! I’m an especially big fan of Doubs’ over 51.5 (+210) alternant receiving line this week.

How does this 2023 49ers offense stack up historically?

Pretty, pretty, pretty well. Consider: The 2023 49ers join the 2016 Falcons and 2018 Chiefs as the most explosive NFL passing offenses since 2010 (15-plus yard completions per attempt).

That said, the overall offensive dominance shouldn’t be confused with one of the best units ever. They did rank “just” third in the league in scoring after all, and their average of +0.179 EPA per play is tied for the fourth-highest single-season mark of the last five years.

The key to unlocking the best version of this unit has been pretty simple: Health.

This excludes three 17-point efforts with Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams banged up in Weeks 6 to 8 as well as their Sam Darnold-led 20-point effort in Week 18.

Let’s just say defensive coordinator Joe Barry and the Packers haven’t quite earned the same benefit of the doubt. While they have played good ball lately and proved to be opportunistic against the Cowboys, this is still just the league’s 23rd-ranked defense in EPA allowed per play on the season.

Ultimately, I’m most concerned with their ability to slow down Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel. Only the Titans and Commanders allowed a higher passer rating to WRs than the Packers this season. Look for the former in particular to FEAST against this Cover-3-heavy defense considering he led the team in all meaningful receiving volume and efficiency metrics against this specific coverage throughout 2023.

While volume is occasionally a problem for Aiyuk due to the overwhelming number of playmakers in this offense, I like his potential to make the most out of his opportunities this week and go for over 87.5 (+210) receiving yards.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (DET -6.5, 48.5)

How does Baker Mayfield’s 2023 really stack up?

Not too shabby! Among 49 QBs with at least 100 dropbacks this season (Including the playoffs):

• EPA per dropback: +0.142 (No. 9)
• CPOE: 0% (No. 19)
• PFF pass grade: 73.6 (No. 19)
• Passer rating: 96.1 (No. 13)
• Yards per attempt: 7.3 (No. 17)

It’s probably too early to talk about Mayfield being a top-10 QB who NEEDS to be someone’s leading man of the future, but at a minimum he’s proved capable of operating at an above-average level when given the courtesy of a decent scheme and solid playmakers.

Let’s just say the Lions haven’t exactly been shutting down opposing passing attacks in recent weeks:

• Wild Card: Matthew Stafford (367 pass yards-2 TD- 0 INT)
• Week 18: Nick Mullens (396-2-2)
• Week 17: Dak Prescott (345-2-1)
• Week 16: Mullens (411-2-4)

While Mayfield himself only totaled 206-scoreless yards through the air against this group back in Week 6, although that performance was at least a little unlucky. For instance, take this missed 92-yard TD to Mike Evans that was tipped and intercepted at the line of scrimmage.

Baker also missed potential scores to Chris Godwin and Trey Palmer on the afternoon. There were PLENTY of yards left on the field during what wound up being one of his single-worst performances of the season.

I like his chances of at least somewhat correcting things this time around and hitting the over on his 253.5-yard passing prop. This matchup has the potential to turn into more of a back-and-forth shootout between two solid offensive passing games facing mediocre secondaries. 

Are there any tried and true methods for slowing down this Lions' offense?

Pressuring Jared Goff is a good start. After all, the man did complete all 22 of his pass attempts for 277 yards and a TD when not pressured last week (H/T Field Yates).

All QBs are obviously better when given the benefit of a clean pocket, but Goff in particular falls apart in a hurry when pressured even relative to other signal-callers.

Goff when pressured among 33 QBs with 100-plus dropbacks (including playoffs)

• PFF pass grade: 52.7 (14th)
• Passer rating: 62.1 (24th)
• Adjusted completion rate: 65.5% (12th)
• Yards per attempt: 6.3 (13th)

Not exactly league-worst numbers, but certainly a far cry from Goff’s top-two marks in the former three statistics when given the benefit of a clean pocket.

Jan 14, 2024; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (14) runs against Los Angeles Rams cornerback Cobie Durant (14) during the second half of a 2024 NFC wild card game at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

Goff enjoyed many clean pockets during his 353-yard and two-TD effort against this group back in Week 6. The main beneficiary of his success was per usual Amon-Ra St. Brown (12-124-1), who has been on one helluva heater since the fantasy playoffs started:

• Week 15: 7 receptions-112 yards-1 TD
• Week 16: 12-106-1
• Week 17: 6-90-1 (and 11 rushing yards)
• Week 18: 7-144-1
• Wild Card: 7-110-0

St. Brown’s five-game active streak with at least 100 yards from scrimmage is the longest in the NFL; don’t be surprised if the Sun God stays hot (lol) against a Bucs defense that ranks among the league’s bottom-seven units in explosive pass-play rate (22.1%) and yards per attempt (9.4) allowed to slot WRs.

Any and all St. Brown over props are good in my back, but I’m especially into his -105 anytime TD odds as the focal point of the game’s fifth-ranked scoring offense inside of a matchup that should yield him one fantasy-friendly scoring opportunity after another.

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (BUF -3, 45.5)

What can we learn from past matchups between these two AFC juggernauts?

These two teams have met on six occasions since 2020:

• Week 6, 2020: Chiefs win 26-17
• 2020 AFC Championship: Chiefs win 38-24
• Week 5, 2021: Bills win 38-20
• 2021 AFC Divisional Round: Chiefs win 42-36
• Week 6, 2022: Bills win 24-20
• Week 14, 2023: Bills win 20-17

Both teams have captured three victories, although it was Patrick Mahomes and company who captured the two-most important W’s.

The thing that sticks out is how well the Bills have generally done at limiting big plays. Aside from some ridiculous YAC efforts by Tyreek Hill (64-yard TD) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (42), every one of Mahomes’ additional 11 TDs came from inside the 12-yard line.

The Bills have largely taken a page out of the Chiefs playbook and done everything in their power to limit big plays. This season two of the top-three defenses in two-high coverage looks (Cover-2, Cover-4, Cover-6, 2-Man) are none other than the Chiefs (50.3%) and Bills (47.1%).

Mahomes has certainly been far more adept at taking down single-high looks relative to these sorts of more conservative coverages in 2023:

• Mahomes vs. One-high coverages: 80.1 PFF pass grade, 7.8 YPA, 65.8% completion rate, 98.6 passer rating
• Mahomes vs. Two-high coverages: 74.8 PFF pass grade, 6.7 YPA, 71.6% completion rate, 77.4 passer rating  

It’s not a coincidence that Mahomes has a 7.5-yard average target depth vs. the former aggressive looks and a 5.8-yard mark vs. the latter: He’s gotten more and more used to taking what the defense is giving him, but the drawback has been a newfound lack of explosive plays.

That’s the single-biggest difference between this year’s Chiefs offense with past editions: Kansas City averaged an explosive passing play (15-plus yards) on 16.7% of their pass attempts from 2018 to 2022 (second in the NFL), but they have fallen to just 12.6% (19th) in 2023.

Buffalo seems somewhat uniquely adept at forcing opposing offenses to operate under pressure without sacrificing extreme resources in the secondary to do so. While their present health isn’t ideal, the Bills joined the Ravens, 49ers, Jets and Dolphins as probably the five best units at getting a lot of pressure without needing to blitz all that much.

Look for the Bills to (again) do everything in their power to limit big plays — I accordingly LOVE Mahomes to go OVER 36.5 pass attempts. He has racked up 43, 40, 44, 54, 38 and 26, has averaged 37-plus per game in his career for both the regular season and playoffs, is at 36.7 per game in 14 career games in sub-freezing temperatures, and has also simply clearing this threshold in four of his last five games.

What have been the biggest changes for the Bills with Joe Brady at OC?

Things weren’t exactly going too badly with Ken Dorsey running things during the first 10 weeks of the season, but it’s hard to deny the success that Brady and company have enjoyed on their way to winning all but one of their last eight games.

• Bills in Weeks 1-10: 63.4% pass-play rate, 51.4% shift/motion rate, +4% dropback rate over expected
• Bills in Weeks 11-WC: 52.5% pass-play rate, 65.1% shift/motion rate, -3% dropback rate over expected

That’s right: Buffalo has functioned as the NFL’s most run-heavy offense over the past two months of action. Some of this has had to do with simply being able to play with more leads, but it’s certainly a far cry from the team’s 63.9% (6th) mark across the 2020 to 2022 seasons.

While James Cook deserves plenty of credit for working as the team’s most explosive playmaker, Josh Allen continues to be a weekly cheat code on the ground. Only Lamar Jackson (6.0) has averaged more yards per carry than Allen (5.5) among the league’s 49 most-used ball carriers since 2018 — and only Derrick Henry (80 vs. 53) has more TDs.

Ultimately, it will probably take Allen once again playing like he has an S on his chest to overcome this ever-difficult Chiefs test. And why wouldn’t this be the crucial factor? Allen has scored an NFL-high 202 combined passing and rushing TDs over the past five years … with Mahomes (170) being the only QB within even 50 scores.

Look for the rushing angle to continue to be exploited — Allen has handled a ridiculous (for a QB) 26% of the Bills’ designed rush attempts over the last three weeks.

I’ll be pounding Allen’s over 9.5 rush attempts odds (+105) thanks to the reality that this late-season usage shift has led to him racking up 11, 15 and eight carries over the past three weeks.