Three more football games separate us between now and the rest of our LIVES.

Or at least next season. Either way, I’ve got some important questions ahead of Championship Sunday that need to be asked and accordingly answered.

Presenting: The biggest questions ahead of Sunday’s postseason battles. Some might say it’s a great day to be great.

Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens (BAL -3.5, 44.5)

Can these Chiefs pass-catchers replicate last week’s surprisingly solid performance?

This is mostly just a question for Travis Kelce (5-75-2 vs. the Bills) and Rashee Rice (4-47-0), but hey, Marquez Valdes-Scantling (2-62-0) made a few plays in the Chiefs’ road victory as well.

Wild but true: MVS had two receptions on passes thrown at least 20 yards downfield last week after having just *three* such catches in his previous 17 games.

Let’s start with Kelce, who can’t stop, won’t stop putting up big-time numbers in the playoffs.

Kudos to Kelce for posting 7-77-1, 7-89-0, 6-87-0 and 7-109-1 receiving lines in four matchups against the Ravens since 2018, but then again, these teams haven’t faced off since Week 2, 2021.

A lot has changed since then — namely the Ravens’ decision to take S Kyle Hamilton with the 14th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft and to trade for Bears LB Roquan Smith. The former stud first-team All-Pro safety has racked up four INTs this season, while the latter first-team All-Pro linebacker leads the team in tackles (158) and is PFF’s 10th-highest-graded linebacker among 67 qualified players at the position.

Together they’ve helped form one of the league’s stingier defenses against opposing TEs: Only George Kittle (7-126-0) and Trey McBride (10-95-1) have cleared even 60 yards vs. this Ravens defense. Hamilton and company have allowed just three total scores to the position all season — tied for the second-lowest mark in the league.

Obviously, Patrick f*cking Mahomes and arguably the greatest TE to ever do it (I have Gronk as the GOAT, but it’s at least a conversation) will have something to say about just how elite this Ravens defense really is — regardless, it will make sense to lean into Rice’s YAC abilities considering just how great the rookie has been after the catch this season:

  • Yards after the catch per reception: 8.3 (No. 2 among all WRs with 25-plus targets)
  • ESPN Analytics YAC Receiving Rating: 73 (No. 3)
  • Next-Gen Stats yards after the catch above expected per reception: +1.9 (tied for No. 9)

Rice’s success is even more impressive when considering he’s maintained this elite efficiency with relatively high volume. Only 2021 Deebo Samuel (10.2) has topped Rice (8.3) over the last 10 years among all WRs with triple-digit targets in a season.

Naturally, the Ravens have been good at limiting extra yards after the catch (5.0 – 9th), but the continued absence of CB Marlon Humphrey (calf) wouldn’t help matters.

At the end of the day: This matchup features a pair of great pass-catchers going up against a great defense. Don’t be surprised if one or both of MVS and Justin Watson are forced to step up and make a big play, as it’s pretty clear where the bulk of Baltimore’s attention will be when Mahomes is dropping back to pass.

Can Isiah Pacheco chill out?

Nope, and that’s exactly what has helped him score seven TDs in his last six games. He’s gained at least 88 yards in all but one of those performances and has worked as the team’s clear lead back ever since Jerick McKinnon (groin, IR) was sidelined:

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The Ravens have been far stingier against the pass than the run this season, although that’s at least somewhat been a choice. Nobody has spent fewer snaps with eight-plus defenders in the box than the Ravens (13.1%) this season, as defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald has generally been happy to let Jadeveon Clowney, Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen among others pull most of the weight at the line of scrimmage.

While Devin Singletary (9-22-0) found next to no success on the ground last week, Pacheco has been a far more consistent workhorse on the ground this season. Specifically, the Chiefs’ 2022 seventh-round pick has racked up 16, 19, 15, 18, 11, 18, 24 and 15 carries over his last eight games.

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Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco (10) cuts back for a short gain.

As the Chiefs’ season-low -10% dropback over expected rate in the Divisional Round indicated: Head coach Andy Reid is happy to lean on his run game these days even when Mahomes and company are largely making good things happen through the air.

The Ravens haven’t exactly shut down each and every RB they’ve faced this season:

Pacheco averaged the league’s eighth-most rushing yards over expected this season; he’ll need to supply another efficient performance on the ground if the Chiefs have any hopes of sustaining some offensive success come Sunday. 

Who is the true x-factor in this Ravens passing game?

Probably three-time Pro Bowler Mark Andrews (ankle) if he’s healthy enough to return to action. Otherwise, Lamar Jackson has put forward the following target distribution in six games since:

Flowers was relatively quiet (4-41-0) last week, but certainly proved capable of making plenty of good things happen after the catch throughout the regular season. This skill is much needed against a Chiefs defense that hasn’t allowed a single WR to clear even 90 yards since DeVonta Smith (6-99-0) back in Week 11.

And then there’s Likely, who has scored six TD in his last six games despite only averaging only 4.2 targets per contest during the stretch. The second-year TE trails only George Kittle (7.5 vs. 7.3) in yards after the catch per reception this season among all players at the position with at least 30 receptions — and let’s just say his hands are pretty good too.

It would have made sense if OBJ saw a usage bump in the playoffs, but he only posted a 30% route participation rate in the first three quarters of last Sunday’s blowout win over the Texans. Bateman and even Agholor are suddenly the favorites to join Flowers in three-WR sets on more dropbacks than not.

As for the group’s wild card: Look no further than RB Justice Hill against a Chiefs defense that has been good, not great vs. pass-catching RBs this season:

Chiefs yards per attempt allowed by position:

  • RB: 5.4 (12th)
  • TE: 6.7 (4th)
  • WR: 6.9 (2nd)

James Cook (9-104-1 receiving in two matchups vs. the Chiefs) found a good amount of success against the Chiefs working downfield, something that Hill has been quite adept at doing himself this season.

Speaking of Hill…

What exactly is going on with this Ravens RB rotation?

Last week was the first game that Hill and Gus Edwards was joined by Dalvin Cook:

Ravens RBs

At this point it’s hard not to call Hill the lead back. While Gus Bus is still a threat to lead the way in total carries and (especially) rush attempts inside the five-yard line, Hill has been leaned on down the stretch and has played more than half the offense’s snaps in three of his last four games.

The receiving usage in these contests has been tough to ignore: Hill has ripped off 3-31-0, 5-64-1 and 2-11-0 receiving lines in his last three games with Jackson under center. I don’t like betting OVER on Hill’s 13.5-yard receiving prop — I love it.

How ridiculous has Lamar Jackson’s rushing production been in the playoffs?

Rather absurd. Overall, Jackson has ripped off 9-54-0, 20-143-0, 16-136-1, 9-34-0 and most recently 11-100-2 rushing performances in five career postseason appearances.

The man is only 127 rushing yards away from having the most career playoff rushing yards by a QB … ever:

This Chiefs defense hasn’t exactly shut him down over the years, as Jackson has posted 14-67-0, 8-46-1, 9-83-0 and 16-107-2 rushing lines against this group in four career matchups. Kansas City hasn’t exactly shut down dual-threat QBs this season, surrendering the 10th-most rushing yards to the position and allowing six individual QBs to total at least 30 yards on the ground.

Lamar’s rushing prop of 64.5 yards is certainly steep, but he has managed to clear it with ease in three of five career postseason performances as well as in three of his last five games overall. I wouldn’t put the mortgage down here, but a small play on the over makes sense considering the potential for 1.) Double-digit designed runs in a leading script, or 2.) Loads of scrambles should the Ravens be forced to play catch-up.

Score prediction: Chiefs 23, Ravens 20. I just can’t bet against potentially the greatest QB … ever.

Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers (SF -7, 51.0)

Where can Jared Goff and company find success through the air?

Well, don’t expect them to try to find much downfield. Detroit has the league’s single-lowest deep ball rate (20-plus yards) of any offense this season. Goff's 7.2-yard average target depth is the fourth-lowest mark of any QB; this group hasn’t made a habit of overly testing the backbone of a defense all season long.

However, the ex-Rams veteran has truly made some great things happen on the rare occasion that offensive coordinator Ben Johnson draws up a shot play.

Lions on passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield:

  • Yards per attempt: 17.3 (No. 4)
  • Explosive pass-play rate: 52% (No. 3)
  • Completion rate: 52% (No. 3)

While nobody has more deep ball receptions than Amon-Ra St. Brown (9), complementary WR Kalif Raymond (5) leads all other Lions. His potential return from a knee injury would be low-key huge ahead of Sunday’s matchup with Nick Bosa and company.

Of course, the 49ers haven’t exactly let opposing offenses create big plays with any level of consistency. They join the Ravens, Jets and Chiefs as the only defenses allowing under 10 yards per pass attempt on balls thrown 20-plus yards downfield (side note: the Lions rank 28th).

Similar to the Ravens, the Lions’ best bet for sustained success through the air might just be with their RBs. This 49ers defense ranks inside the top-five in yards per attempt allowed to WRs and TEs, but “only” 11th against opposing backs.

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Jan 14, 2024; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs (26) runs for a touchdown against Los Angeles Rams safety Quentin Lake (37) during the first half of a 2024 NFC wild card game at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports

While spending too much time roaming around Fred Warner probably isn’t a good idea, this defense has allowed opposing RBs to clear 30 receiving yards on nine separate occasions this season.

Enter: Jahmyr Gibbs, who has posted 4-40-0 and 4-43-0 receiving lines over the past two weeks with Raymond sidelined. His 22.5-yard receiving prop feels light considering the likelihood that the underdog Lions have to keep their foot on the gas in the passing game throughout Sunday evening.

How does this Lions supporting cast stack up the 49ers?

At least on offense: Quite well!

The Lions finished the season with PFF’s second-ranked offensive line and have received BIG-time years out of guys like Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery and Sam LaPorta.

Similar to the 49ers: There are plenty of avenues to go with the football, making it difficult for defenses to simply focus on taking away one individual player. This has been one of the league’s most well-balanced units all season long.

Passing and Rushing Efficiency

Of course, as that chart demonstrates: Nobody has been close to the 49ers when it comes to run/pass balance.

There’s just one itty bitty concern…

Can Brock Purdy survive without Deebo Samuel?

The 49ers’ Wild Card win over the Packers wasn’t supposed to be close. We’re talking about a well-rested one-seed coming in as 10.5-point home favorites against a Green Bay defense that ranked a mediocre 22nd in EPA allowed per play during the regular season.

While Jordan Love’s decision to go full Brett Favre clinched the victory for San Fran, it was hard to ignore just how rough Purdy had looked for the majority of the evening. We’re talking “multiple dropped INTs that will probably keep Packers fans sleepless for a few nights” level of rough.

There were some good throws — notably the TD to George Kittle, deep out to Chris Conley and dime down the middle to Jauan Jennings — but certainly more bad than good. Mother Nature was a factor, as Purdy took his glove off after just one drive and later dried off his hands mid-dropback.

49ers fans shouldn’t really care. Purdy played his best when it mattered most and got the win. It’s ultimately a free country: Compare the final-drive heroics to Joe Montana if you want.

Still, Purdy has looked awfully mortal without the services of stud WR Deebo Samuel (shoulder) over the past two seasons

Purdy with and without Deebo:

  • With (19 games): +0.362 EPA per dropback, 87.2 PFF pass grade, 119.5 passer rating, 38 TD-7 INT, 9.4 YPA, 70.4% completion
  • Without (7 games): +0.124 EPA per dropback, 65.4 PFF pass grade, 80.6 passer rating, 10 TD-7 INT, 8.3 YPA, 62.9% completion

No QB is exactly better off without the services of one of their team’s very best overall players. All-world LT Trent Williams was also sidelined in two of the non-Deebo games in 2023.

Still: We’re talking about a QB who has gone from being the most efficient passer *ever* with Deebo on the field … to one who would find themself ranked outside the game’s top-30 QBs in pretty much any metric other than yards per attempt without.

Good news: Purdy’s total on-field splits this season with Samuel on the sideline aren’t as severe, and the 49ers honestly probably don’t have to be at their best against this defense.

Can this Lions defense come close to slowing down Purdy?

They sure haven’t passed the test in recent matchups. The last five QBs to face off against the Lions have put up the following numbers:

Remember that cool chart we looked at demonstrating how both the Lions and 49ers were really good at moving the football both on the ground and through the air? A look at the defenses involved tells a different story:

Passing and Rushing Defense

The Lions have been among the league’s very best units at stopping opposing rushing attacks, but they have largely been a dumpster fire against the pass. 

Shoutout to rookie Brian Branch for largely playing great this season. Otherwise, nearly every Lions corner to play 100-plus snaps has been a combination of undersized and bad:

Credit to safeties Ifeatu Melifonwu and C.J. Gardner-Johnson for consistently supplying a solid backbone to the secondary; just realize this should be the sort of spot where guys like Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle are capable of going nuclear.

Score prediction: 49ers 38, Lions 20. Sorry Detroit faithful, but I simply don’t trust your defense to get stops.

Fantasy Questions