Fantasy Questions Week 1. Key Questions for Every Team.

After seven long, cold, heartless months: Meaningful football is finally BACK.

Today’s goal: Break down Week 1 by asking — and attempting to answer — the most meaningful fantasy-related questions possible.

And maybe even have some fun, too. Because, you know, why not?

Questions are ordered chronologically by game. Check out the Fantasy Life Game Hub for updated spreads and totals throughout the week. Fantasy Life’s team of expert rankers also have you covered (for free!) if you’re into that kind of thing.

As always: It’s a great day to be great.

Bengals at Browns (CIN -2.5, 47.5)

Will Joe Mixon get a true every-down workload?

It’s going to be scary in Fantasy Land if Mixon does because he already had one of the game’s most fantasy-friendly roles in 2022.

The RB position’s leaders in expected PPR points per game were as follows:

1. Austin Ekeler (20.4)
2. Mixon (19.0)
3. Christian McCaffrey (18.6)
4. Saquon Barkley (17.9)
5. Josh Jacobs (17.4)

Poor efficiency led to Mixon scoring 27 PPR points below expectation on the season (second most among RBs), but the veteran still managed to work as one of just six RBs to score 17-plus PPR points per game on the year.

I’m not a fan of “take away a player’s good games and he was actually bad” analysis, but if you insist: Mixon still would have worked as the RB12 in PPR points per game last season *without* his 55.1-point explosion.

Removing nominal third-down RB Samaje Perine from the equation could lead to one of the more voluminous workloads in the entire NFL inside of an offense that should still provide plenty of scoring opportunities.

Even without the benefit of improved run-game efficiency, Mixon deserves immediate top-10 treatment — he was only as cheap as he was in drafts because of potential cap casualty and suspension concerns.

Can Deshaun Watson and company make an early statement in this potential shootout?

Only Chiefs-Lions (53) and Chargers-Dolphins (51) have higher game totals than Browns-Bengals (48) at the time of this writing. Both offenses are set up rather great from an explosive play perspective.

Obviously Joe Burrow and company are a big reason why that number is so high, but the potential for Watson to look more like the guy we saw in 2017-2020 vs. 2022 also matters.

Head coach Kevin Stefanski certainly seems ready to take the training wheels off this passing attack if the preseason was any indication: No offense utilized more empty than the Browns (14.5% — only six offenses were even in double-digits).

Dec 4, 2022; Houston, Texas, USA; Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson (4) runs with the ball during the fourth quarter against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

The 2023 preseason offense also ranked seventh (65.3%) in raw pass play percentage, a mark nearly 10% higher than their 24th-place regular season finish last year (55.6%).

Could this simply be because the Browns were without their top-two RBs in Nick Chubb (rest) and Jerome Ford (hamstring)? Or maybe it’s just the f*cking preseason and Stefanski felt like passing a little more?

Absolutely, but maybe it’s also the early result of something that was already being talked about plenty in training camp circles. Nobody threw for more yards than Watson (4,823) the last time he played a full football season; anything remotely close to that sort of production will make all of his involved pass-catchers rather great values at their preseason ADP.

Texans at Ravens (BAL -10, 43.5)

Is the idea of the Texans utilizing a committee backfield just a cruel, sick joke?

The Athletic’s Mike Jones (who?) referenced the addition of longtime Bills RB Devin Singletary and noted that it's “appearing as if Houston plans on going with a platoon.”

While Jones did say Pierce should still start, anything close to a 50/50 split would really go against what we saw from the team’s first-team preseason usage.

The team's decision to not bring back 2022 pass-down specialist Rex Burkhead opens up some fantasy-friendly targets; it remains to be seen whether Pierce or Singletary — hell, maybe even Dare Ogunbowale — manage to truly seize a sizeable target share, or if things are destined to be split more evenly than involved fantasy managers would prefer.

Performance in pass pro could be a deciding factor: Pierce graded out as PFF’s sixth-worst pass-blocking RB among 60 qualified backs in 2023. Singletary ranked 12th.

Obtaining plenty of pass-down work is more vital than ever for Pierce ahead of a game expected to feature plenty of negative game script for the Texans. The rising second-year back will need to be on his A-game to overcome this feisty Ravens front-seven.

What will new OC Todd Monken’s version of the Lamar Jackson show look like?

The hope is for more passing and general up-tempo pace. Overall, Monken-led offenses ranked 20th, sixth, fourth and 17th in pass-rate over expected from 2016 to 2019 while never finishing worse than 11th in neutral situation pace.

As for the Greg Roman-led Ravens? They never ranked higher than fifth in PROE and 22nd in pace from 2019 to 2022.

Give Roman some credit for helping the Ravens score the NFL’s fifth-most total points during this span, but it’d sure be a lot cooler if more of the passing game revolves around their trio of talented WRs and pair of stud TEs than, you know, 300-plus pound FB Patrick Ricard.

What better time than the present to f*ck around and find out what this passing game is capable of than against the league’s reigning 28th-ranked defense in explosive pass play rate allowed? I’m not overly hyped to fire up any of the involved WRs as MUST-start options this week with the pecking order uncertain; just realize each could be knocking on the WR2 door in a hurry with a good week of utilization.

Buccaneers at Vikings (MIN -6, 45.5)

Can Baker Mayfield be decent enough for Chris Godwin and Mike Evans to keep on keeping on?

Week 1 should provide a solid litmus test against a Vikings defense that struggled to slow down opposing passing game of most shapes and sizes in 2022:

• Vikings yards per attempt allowed: 7.7 (No. 30)
• Explosive pass play rate: 16.7% (No. 29)
• QB fantasy points allowed per game: 20.6 (No. 28)
• WR PPR points allowed per game: 40.5 (No. 31)

The Buccaneers might be embracing a new offensive identity; they ranked dead last in play-action rate in 2022 (15.9%) before posting league-high numbers in the preseason (39.3%).

Here’s to hoping former Seahawks QB coach — now Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales — has enough tricks up his sleeves to (again) help his offense’s truly talented wideouts stay afloat in fantasy land despite the presence of a new QB.

Reminder: Both Evans and Godwin have posted four consecutive top-16 finishes in PPR points per game in each of the past four seasons — a feat only Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill and Keenan Allen have also pulled off during the same span.

Are the Vikings once again poised to be one of the league’s most shootout-heavy teams?

Last season just three top-10 scoring offenses also fielded a bottom-10 scoring defense:

• Lions: offense: 5th | defense: 29th
• Vikings: 7th | 30th
• Seahawks: 9th | 25th

The team’s aforementioned poor ranks in most pass defense efficiency metrics were the primary culprit last year, Perhaps third-round rookie CB Mekhi Blackmon and former Cardinals CB Byron Murphy shape up the group in a hurry; just realize it’s far from a guarantee that this Kirk Cousins and company will be afforded many opportunities to take their collective foot off the gas in 2023.

Of course, this is great news in fantasy land!

Each of Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson and (to a lesser extent) Alexander Mattison are auto-starts, while talented first-round rookie WR Jordan Addison deserves immediate FLEX consideration — especially against a Bucs secondary that has generally funneled opposing offensive production to the air under head coach Todd Bowles.

Panthers at Falcons (ATL -3.5, 39.5)

Will Carolina make Miles Sanders one of the league’s most-fed RBs?

Seemingly recovered from an August groin injury (AKA not listed on the team’s initial injury report), Sanders got PAID this offseason and stands out as easily the most proven option inside the Panthers’ admittedly underwhelming backfield.

Nobody is doubting Sanders’ status as the offense’s No. 1 RB; the big question is whether his role will be large enough to deal with a likely bottom-10 scoring environment.

Just four offenses are implied to score fewer than 19 points in Week 1:

• Panthers (18)
• Texans (16.75)
• Cardinals (15.5)

Aug 12, 2023; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Carolina Panthers running back Miles Sanders (6) during the second half against the New York Jets at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

RBs have historically been more adept at overcoming porous offensive environments than other positions. Still, I’d have a much easier time buying into the idea that head coach Frank Reich will feature Sanders in the team's passing game… if he hasn’t consistently been one of the league’s very worst receivers at the position over the past three seasons.

• 2022: 35.9 PFF receiving grade (47th among 47 qualified RB), 0.29 yards per route run (47th)
• 2021: 67.1 (21st), 0.81 (tied for 47th)
• 2020: 37.0 (44th), 0.67 (40th)
• 2019: 75.7 (13th), 1.61 (11th)

As cool as Sanders’ contract might be, the history of high-priced free agents changing teams has been no bueno. Fire up the ex-Eagles veteran as a low-end RB2; he’ll be on the rise with definitive evidence of a three-down role.

Will Kyle Pitts fantasy managers once again face a season mostly filled with pain?

Falcons beat reporter Josh Kendall sure seems to think so. He concluded a question on where fantasy managers should draft Pitts with:

“I don’t see Pitts being any higher than fourth on this team in targets. Plus, he still must prove he’s healthy after last season’s surgery.”

While Pitts frustrated fantasy managers last season with his lack of production, the usage on hand was actually pretty hard to complain about:

Most targets per route run in 2022 (min. 50 targets

1. Kyle Ptts (26.5%)
2. Mark Andrews (25.4%)
3. Travis Kelce (25%)

Unfortunately, no TE had more uncatchable targets than Pitts last season (PFF), leading the 2021 NFL Draft’s No. 4 overall pick failing to convert his big-time opportunities into big-time numbers.

Current Fantasy Life season-long projections do indeed have Drake London (118.5) leading the way in targets, but Pitts (93.2) comes in well ahead of guys like Mack Hollins (63.8), Bijan Robinson (51.4) and Cordarrelle Patterson (29.9).

Pitts’ fantasy managers should indeed be concerned about the overall available pass-game volume inside of the league’s reigning second-most run-heavy offense since at least 2016 as well as with the assumption that Desmond Ridder will be a massive upgrade over Mariota (he wasn’t last year) — just remember the rising third-year “TE” is one of just two rookies to gain 1,000-plus yards at the position for a reason: Pitts is really good at football.

It’d make sense if Pitts has to put forward some excellent efficiency to really make some waves in fantasy football land because of the overall volume concerns in this passing game; just realize it’d be borderline coaching malpractice for this sort of talent to fall outside of Ridder’s top-three options in 2023.

Will the Earth blow up after the Falcons give Tyler Allgeier more touches than Bijan Robinson?

I’m kidding.

Kind of.

But seriously: The team’s assessment of their offensive weapons has been rather weird all offseason. Twelve players are unironically listed as starters on the team’s “official” depth chart, and that doesn’t even include Allgeier, who also figures to be plenty involved if head coach Arthur Smith’s August comments mean anything.

Historically, Round 1 RBs have been fed workhorse roles almost immediately. While Robinson wouldn’t be the offense’s first top-10 pick to disappoint in fantasy land, it’s really hard to believe that the “generational” prospect won’t be the focal point inside of what will likely once again be one of the league’s most run-heavy offenses.

Moral of the story: Robinson shouldn’t ever go near your fantasy bench, but it’d be very Arthur Smith of Arthur Smith to limit the rookie’s touches more than fantasy managers would prefer in the early parts of 2023.

Cardinals at Commanders (WSH -7, 38)

Can James Conner survive inside of this sad excuse for an NFL offense?

Yes, this Kyler Murray-less offense profiles as the league’s single-worst group.

Also yes, we did get a four-game sample of Conner working without Murray at the end of last season, and the veteran back rewarded loyal fantasy managers with some legit RB1 production.

• Week 14: 15-85-1 rushing, 6-29-0 receiving, PPR RB5 (95% snaps)
• Week 15: 16-63-1, 3-28-0, RB12 (91%)
• Week 16: 15-79-1, 7-41-0, RB4 (97%)
• Week 17: 16-79-0, 3-31-0, RB15 (55% - left early with a shin injury)

I’m perfectly fine leaving Conner on the fantasy bench on loaded rosters with enough top-24 RBs and WRs to fill all your FLEX spots; just realize it’s hard for RBs looking at 20-plus touches per game to bust too badly in fantasy land — even in a Cardinals offense that looks ROUGH on paper ahead of Week 1.

Should fantasy managers just get used to starting everyone they can against the Cardinals?

It’s probably not a bad idea. The league’s reigning 31st-ranked scoring defense was largely a disaster for all of last season — and that was with guys like DT J.J. Watt (retired), LB/S Isaiah Simmons (traded), CB Byron Murphy (left in free agency) and EDGE Markus Golden (left in free agency).

Firing up QB Sam Howell in non-SUPERFLEX/two-QB leagues might be a bit aggressive at this point, but fantasy managers should feel rather great about WR Jahan Dotson as well as Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson. Even Terry McLaurin (toe) warrants WR3 consideration if he winds up playing through the pain this weekend.

Robinson in particular stands out as someone who I will be answering the majority of close start/sit questions with. He should see ideal leading game-script and gets to face a front-seven that didn’t make a habit of shutting down opposing rushing attacks last season:

• Cardinals rush yards per attempt allowed: 4.5 (tied for No. 21)
• Explosive run-play rate allowed: 15% (No. 29)
• PPR points per game allowed to RBs: 28.8 (No. 29)

Jaguars at Colts (JAX -5, 45)

Just how BACK is Calvin Ridley?

My bank account sure hopes Ridley will resemble the same guy who worked as the WR4 in PPR points per game back in 2020. Preseason hype rocketed the 28-year-old veteran up draft boards to the point that Ridley is seldom available by the time Round 3 comes around in high-stakes leagues.

While facing longtime stud CB Stephon Gilmore would have really been a great first test for Ridley, fantasy managers won’t complain about likely matchups against rookie CB JuJu Brents and second-year former undrafted free agent Dallis Flowers.

One of Fantasy Life’s (free!) season-long bets courtesy of the great Matthew Freedman: Ridley (+6,000) to lead the NFL.

I don’t like it: I LOVE it.

Is the time to trust Anthony Richardson as a legit QB1 right meow?

Abso-lutely.

Why? Because the fantasy community has (rightfully) rode the coattails of guys like Tim Tebow and Taysom Hill to plenty of spot start fantasy production over the years thanks to one single variable: Rushing volume.

Reminder: Richardson scored a perfect 10 RAS (relative athletic score) after showing up to the combine at 6-foot-4, 244 pounds. The Florida product posted a more than stellar 103-654-9 rushing line in 12 games at Florida last season, proving capable of being able to take the rock to the house by himself from pretty much anywhere on the field.

Week 1 of the preseason was a good snapshot of what we should expect to see from this group. Overall, the Colts’ utilized an RPO on 42.6% of their snaps — the highest mark in the NFL by a whopping 16.7%.

High-volume rushing QBs really don’t bust in fantasy football land:

Richardson profiles as this year’s late-round darling at the position who performs far better in fantasy than real life — don’t be surprised if we see some GAUDY rushing numbers to make up for expected growing pains as a passer.

Should you REALLY roll with any of these Colts RBs in fantasy land?

Not as anything more than low-upside FLEX options. This profiles as a likely three-headed committee in an offense not exactly expected to light up the scoreboard against the Jaguars’ formidable defensive front.

Seriously: Good RBs in *great* scoring offenses struggle to put up big-time fantasy numbers when attached to high-volume rushing QBs — removing any semblance of high-end scoring upside makes life difficult for all backfield parties involved when their collective target share and goal-line opportunities figure to be rather meh.

With all due respect to borderline WR3 Michael Pittman: My only recommended start in this offense at the moment is Richardson. Gun to my head, give me Zack Moss as the preferred backfield option; just don’t be surprised if the answer to which Colts RB you should start is simply: No.

49ers at Steelers (SF -2.5, 41)

What does the potential absence of George Kittle (groin) mean for this 49ers offense?

Pretty good things for the rest of the involved parties, although Kittle was already shoved down the pecking order in our small sample of starts with Brock Purdy and a healthy assortment of skill-position weapons at his disposal:

• Deebo Samuel: 34 targets
• Brandon Aiyuk: 26
• Christian McCaffrey: 26
• Kittle: 21
• Jauan Jennings: 15

Deebo and CMC obviously aren’t ever leaving your starting fantasy lineup (even if there’s a fire), but the absence of Kittle would also push Aiyuk into near must-start territory — especially against a Steelers defense that allowed 17 TDs to opposing WRs last season (sixth-highest mark in te league).

This 49ers passing attack profiles as having a rather steep advantage over the Steelers’ secondary if last year’s performance is any indication.

What if Kenny Pickett and this offense are actually … good?

They certainly were in the preseason!

I know, I know: It was just the preseason. But still: Five TDs in five drives with Pickett under center is nothing to scoff at.

The really alluring piece here is the potential for Pickett to push the ball downfield far more often than last season. Overall, nobody posted a higher deep-ball rate (20-plus yards downfield) than the Steelers (13.9%) in the preseason.

Throwing the ball downfield more often doesn’t guarantee a better offense, but it does make for more fantasy-friendly targets (yay) and potentially lighter boxes for the associated RBs. Overall, both Najee Harris (40.4%) and Jaylen Warren (40.3%) faced eight-plus defenders in the box on an above-average amount of their carries last season.

Is this all just a ploy to make myself feel better about drafting Diontae Johnson and Warren more than just about anybody in best ball land this offseason? Maybe, but don’t discount the potential for second-year Pickett to help out his array of talented skill-position weapons a bit more than last year.

Titans at Saints (NO -3, 41)

Will Father Time come for DeAndre Hopkins and Derrick Henry in 2023?

Hopefully not, although both Hopkins (31) and Henry (29) are at the point of their career where top-tier fantasy production becomes MUCH harder to come by.

Of course, neither Nuk nor The Big Dog are currently dealing with any injuries; it’d make sense if the early-season versions of their “elderly” selves supply some fantasy goodness — especially considering the expectation for HEAVY condensed volume for each.

While familiar elite efficiency could be a bit tougher to come by than in past years, Hopkins and Henry *for now* continue to profile as a volume-hogs worthy of every-week starting treatment; just realize history tells us nicks and bruises could be a bit more a detriment to both than usual as the season goes on.

Is Jamaal Williams quietly set up to smash in the early going?

Oh yeah — if you aren’t starting Williams this week, when exactly are you planning on doing so?

• Alvin Kamara is serving the first game of his three-week suspension.
• Kendre Miller is dealing with a hamstring injury and should be considered questionable for Sunday.

While Williams was normally used as just an early-down option in Detroit, he did briefly prove capable of handling every-down duties in Green Bay when Aaron Jones missed time over the years.

• Week 7, 2020: 19-77-1 rushing, 4-37-0 receiving, 89% snaps
• Week 8, 2020: 16-75-0, 6-27-0, 85%

The Saints’ status as 3-point home favorites *should* lead to the sort of favorable leading game-script that benefits a grinder like Williams; he’s deserving of RB2 treatment this week thanks to his potential to seize a near every-down role in a potentially ascending Saints offense. 

Credit to the Titans for supplying a tough matchup in the trenches; just realize it’s tough to fade any RB looking at 20-plus touches just because of a tough on-paper matchup.

Raiders at Broncos (DEN -3.5, 44)

Will the non-Shanahan version of Jimmy G good or nah?

Jimmy Garoppolo — AKA the NFL’s all-time leader in yards per attempt (min. 50 starts) — hasn’t worked alongside Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels since 2016, but the pair did enjoy plenty of success during their brief time together. Overall, Garoppolo averaged more adjusted yards per attempt in a (much) smaller sample with the Patriots (8.4) than he did with the 49ers (8.2).

That was seven years ago, although this Raiders offense certainly isn’t lacking for viable pass-game options with Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, Hunter Renfrow, Josh Jacobs and even rookie TE Michael Mayer filling out starting three-WR sets.

An early-season road trip to Mile High isn’t the time to get overly cute here — only Adams and Jacobs are recommended starting options this week — but don’t be surprised if the artist known as Jimmy GQ closes the gap between himself and the pocket passing QB2 tier in fantasy land sooner rather than later.

Will Russell Wilson stop kissing babies already?

Sean Payton wants answers!

How evenly is Sean Payton planning on splitting this two-RB committee?

Good question, me!

Sean Payton is already on the record about his preference for using two RBs. It’s likely, if not inevitable, that the ex-Bengals RB Samaje Perine is heavily heavily involved next to presumed No. 1 RB Javonte Williams. Consider: Payton has NEVER fed an RB 250-plus carries in a single season during his time as head coach.

Overall, Williams led the way in snaps (13 vs. 11) and routes (8 vs. 3) over Perine with the starters in the second week of the preseason; this sort of split usage could make it tough to overly commit to one over the other in fantasy land — particularly if Williams isn’t quite his usual efficient self early in the season coming back from his BRUTAL 2022 knee injury.

Good news fantasy managers: Neither back necessarily needs an every-down role to ball out against the Raider’s reigning 28th-ranked defense in PPR points per game allowed to the position. It’d also make sense if the Broncos lean on their rushing attack more than usual while their WR room continues to resemble a walking graveyard.

Eagles at Patriots (PHI -4, 45)

Who is the No. 1 fantasy RB in Philly?

Who knows, but hopefully this gets cleared up in a hurry because in *fantasy* football land: The Eagles don’t exactly represent the best offensive environment for RBs specifically.

Dual-threat QBs make for pretty spectacular fantasy assets, but their tendency to 1.) Scramble instead of checking down, and 2.) Factor into the rushing equation near the goal line, has made it tough for their offense’s RBs. This is why offenses like the Eagles, Bills, Seahawks and Ravens rank among the league’s bottom-12 offenses in expected RB PPR points per game despite boasting a top-12 scoring offense over the past three seasons.

Only the Rams, Ravens, Bills, Jets and Chiefs were less willing to give their RB 15-plus touches in a game last season, and Eagles RBs rank just 28th in targets over the past two seasons. Injuries could always force a coaching staff’s hand (see: 2022 Rhamondre Stevenson), but don’t expect any RB involved here to completely take over without multiple parties out of the picture.

Swift’s chance to lock down the (minimal) pass-down work available with explosive upside on the ground earns him my overall nod in the ole fantasy ranks, but I’ll be answering close start/sit questions involving an Eagles RB with the other guy while this situation sorts itself out.

Can Mac Jones get back to partying like it’s 2021?

Shocking but true: Jones led the NFL’s sixth-ranked scoring offense as a rookie despite his top-five target leaders being: Jakobi Meyers, Hunter Henry, Kendrick Bourne, Nelson Agholor and Brandon Bolden.

Simply subtracting Matt Patricia from the equation in favor of Bill O’Brien isn’t guaranteed to fix things overnight, but at least the offense showed some signs of changing things up during the preseason.

• RPO rate: 7.5% in 2022 regular season, 16.6% in 2023 preseason
• Screen rate: 17%, 22.9%
• Deep ball rate: 4.4%, 10%

The Philadelphia Bulldogs Eagles certainly have plenty of youthful talent on the defensive side of the ball, but that doesn’t change the fact they have to replace five separate defensive starters from a season ago.

For now, Rhamondre Stevenson is the only locked-and-loaded fantasy starter in New England; just realize a return to form from Jones could help guys like Henry, DeVante Parker and JuJu Smith-Schuster provide some low-key solid fantasy production as well.

Rams at Seahawks (SEA -5.5, 46)

Will Sean McVay save this Cooper Kupp-less (hamstring) Rams offense?

Maybe, maybe not, but you know who should ball out either way?

TE Tyler Higbee, who has returned multiple stretches of elite fantasy production during his career when the Rams have had minimal places to go with the football.

There aren’t many players at the position out there with Higbee’s best-case target ceiling:

Most games with 8+ targets among all TEs in 2022:

• Travis Kelce (13)
• T.J. Hockenson (8)
• Tyler Higbee (7)
• Mark Andrews (6)

Higbee deserves legit TE1 treatment for as long as Kupp (hamstring) remains sidelined — and even once he returns it shouldn’t be too surprising if the 30-year-old veteran continues to look a lot like one of fantasy’s best late-round values at the position.

Fire up Higbee as a top-10 option at the position vs. a Seahawks defense that allowed the second-most PPR points per game to opposing TEs last season.

Was 2022 Geno a one-off or a sign of more great things to come?

Nothing about Smith’s performance would make you think he simply dinked and dunked his way to success. While he did lead the NFL in raw completion rate (69.8%), Smith’s 8.3 average target depth ranked a respectable 25th out of 48 qualified QBs. Nobody posted a higher PFF passing grade (99.2) or threw more TDs (15) on passes thrown 20-plus yards down the field last season.

The NFL’s best QB in completion rate over expected (+5.6%): Smith objectively balled out in 2022, and now he gets a Jalen Ramsey-less Rams defense that doesn’t have much firepower outside of, you know, world-beating DL Aaron Donald.

This sure looks like a pretty, pretty, pretty nice matchup for Smith and company even when using 2022 numbers that include Ramsey.

The government doesn’t want you to know that Smith outscored guys like Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert on a per-game basis last season. I’d certainly take the latter two QBs over the course of the entire season, but Smith offers weekly boom upside inside of an offense littered with high-end playmakers that may need to continue keeping their foot on the gas if the league’s reigning 25th-ranked scoring defense fails to improve in a meaningful way.

What will the Kenneth Walker-Zach Charbonnet dynamic be?

Walker (groin) didn’t participate in the preseason but is seemingly ready to go for Week 1.

Meanwhile, Seattle used the 52nd overall pick of the 2023 NFL Draft on Charbonnet, who has the sort of skill-set to be a major thorn in the side of Walker’s fantasy managers should the Seahawks decide to make this an evenly split committee to start the year.

Specifically, Walker was the league’s worst high-usage RB at converting rush attempts inside the 5-yard line into TDs as a rookie, and his status as PFF’s 35th and 43rd highest-graded RB in receiving and pass-blocking wasn’t exactly great.

The Athletic’s Dane Brugler concluded his writeup on Charbonnet in his ever-excellent “The Beast” with the following:

“Overall, Charbonnet is not a dynamic start-stop athlete to quickly change rush lanes or escape trouble, but he has extraordinary vision with reliable pass-catching and blocking skills and impeccable football character. He projects as a low-end NFL starter.”

I’m firing up Walker as the upside RB2 he was throughout most of 2022, but 50/50 usage could QUICKLY elevate the rookie into the driver seat in fantasy land if Charb manages to seize the fantasy-friendly pass-down and goal-line work.

Dolphins at Chargers (LAC -3, 51)

Should Raheem Mostert be started in fantasy leagues of most shapes and sizes?

You bet. Similar to Jamaal Williams, Mosert is a big-time early-season beneficiary of his team’s banged-up RB room:

• Jeff Wilson (midsection/finger, IR) will miss at least the first four games of the season.
• Devon Achane (shoulder) returned to practice recently, but might not be healthy enough to threaten much of Mostert’s early-down work.

This leaves Mostert and Salvon Ahmed to do most of the heavy lifting. Perhaps the latter back is more involved than expected, although the former RB held solid leads in snaps (11 vs. 3) and routes (6 vs. 0) with the starters during Week 3 of the preseason.

While the Dolphins’ offense figures to continue to heavily flow through Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, Mostert is in play as an upside RB2 this week against a Chargers defense that simply didn’t have many answers for opposing rushing attacks in 2022:

Chargers defensive ranks in 2022

• EPA allowed per carry: +0.089 (No. 32)
• Yards per carry: 5.3 (No. 32)
• Yards before contact allowed per carry: 1.9 (No. 29)
• Explosive run-play rate: 11.7% (No. 24)
• PPR points per game allowed to RBs: 27.5 (No. 27)

I would start Mostert ahead of guys like Cam Akers and Rachaad White, who could have similar roles in far worse overall offenses — this matchup is just too tasty to ignore.

Is there anyone on the Chargers you should NOT start?

The key parties: You better have a DAMN good reason to put Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen or Mike Williams anywhere near your fantasy bench regardless of the matchup — particularly one that has shootout written all over it.

The better questions revolve around my FAVORITE late-round TE of the year in Gerald Everett as well as first-round rookie WR Quinton Johnston.

The former is my pick to be featured on the cover of Week 2 waiver wire articles *if* new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore hands him the same sort of every-down route rate that was on the table for Dalton Schultz over the years, while the latter also should find his way into starting three-WR sets sooner rather than later — if not in Week 1 period.

I’d advise staying in “wait and see” mode for both complementary options for a week; just realize any potential full-time options inside of this potentially prolific passing attack should be safely stashed on fantasy benches in leagues of all shapes and sizes.

Packers at Bears (CHI -1, 43)

Is Jayden Reed a must-start option if both Christian Watson (hamstring) and Romeo Doubs (hamstring) are sidelined?

Not quite, but it would certainly help matters. Reed would land in borderline WR3 territory in my fantasy ranks should both Watson and Doubs be sidelined.

Hopefully, Reed is already on your bench after you, a scholar, read Fantasy Life’s resident waiver wire expert Chris Allen’s excellent pre-Week 1 waiver breakdown:

“Watson and Doubs’ injuries make Reed an easy click and stash to start the season.

Reports in May highlighted Reed getting slot reps with the first-team offense.

We saw Love’s connection with Reed in early August, and he was on a trajectory to be a starter when Doubs was healthy. The rookie led the receiving corps in targets per route run (TPRR) and secured half of the looks from Love in obvious passing situations during the preseason.

Chicago gave up the third-most yards after catch per reception of any defense in ’22, and Reed ranked behind only Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Zay Flowers, and Jordan Addison from this draft class in the same metric.

With the Bears allowing an average of 55.5 yards to slot WRs last season, Reed has the volume and talent to be a viable fantasy asset in Week 1.”

WR-needy rosters should feel good about potentially streaming Reed in the early going with winnable matchups against the Falcons, Saints, Lions and Raiders on the docket in Weeks 2 to 5.

For this week, stick to Aaron Jones and (to a lesser extent) AJ Dillon as the only fantasy options you should feel ESPECIALLY good about starting: The Packers are projected to enjoy one of the larger advantages in the trenches in Week 1.

Will Justin Fields have his “Uh oh, Happy learned how to putt” breakout passing performance?

I, an unapologetically ignorant Ohio State fan, certainly hope so.

But seriously: It’s not like Fields has never flashed the ability to make some truly awesome big-time throws.

Whether or not Fields can make these sorts of throws with more consistency remains to be seen, but the man once upon a time worked as PFF’s most accurate college QB charted for a reason.

Reminder: Fields’ top-three WRs in his last start were Equanimeous St. Brown, N’Keal Harry and Byron Pringle. In Week 1 he’ll have the privilege of throwing to D.J. Moore, Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool.

This group is still maybe (definitely) not the world’s best WR trio, but they are certainly a step up over what the 24-year-old QB has worked with during his short two-year NFL career.

Here’s to hoping Fields enjoys a similar year-three jump as a passer like Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts, who also combined rushing-heavy fantasy excellence before truly exploding after getting a true No. 1 WR added to their offense.

Sunday Night Football: Cowboys at Giants (DAL -3, 46.5)

Are the Kellen Moore-less Cowboys still one of the league’s most-lethal scoring offenses?

Hopefully, but it’s not a given.

Reminder: Dak Prescott and company have been as good as any group in the league at racking up points over the past three years.

Cowboys points per game and NFL rank

• 2020 pre-Dak injury: 32.6 (No. 2)
• 2021: 31.2 (No. 1)
• 2022 post-Dak injury: 32.5 (No. 1)

It’d take a royal screwup from Mike McCarthey to lead this offense to anything close to below-average territory; that said there really isn’t much room for this group to go but down from a raw scoring perspective.

For now, Tony Pollard and CeeDee Lamb are the only two must-start fantasy options in Dallas — this run game could be leaned on if the projected advantage in the trenches is any indication. Maybe this group will include additional WRs and maybe a TE this time next week with confirmed evidence that McCarthy still knows what he’s doing in the year 2023.

Will year two of the Daniel Jones-Brian Daboll partnership lead to more fireworks?

Hopefully, otherwise the artist known as Vanilla Vick will (again) need to lean on his legs to maintain top-tier fantasy production.

Most fantasy points per game from purely rushing production in 2022

1. Justin Fields (10.8)
2. Jalen Hurts (10.3)
3. Lamar Jackson (7.9)
4. Josh Allen (7.4)
5. Jones (7.1)

One of just eight QBs to average at least 18 fantasy points per game last season, Jones became one of just nine QBs to ever register a season with 3,000-plus passing yards and over 700 rushing yards.

Of course, a matchup against Micah Parsons and company doesn’t figure to make life easy on the Giants’ $160 million man. This group limited Jones to two pedestrian QB20 finishes last year and easily led the NFL in overall pressure rate.

There’s a chance this Giants’ offensive line is completely overwhelmed on Sunday night.

I’d refrain from overly trusting any Giant not named Saquon Barkley or Darren Waller in Fantasy Land this week, but Year 2 in a system not run by the clapper *should* lead to better overall passing production in more chill mashups down the stretch.

Monday Night Football: Bills at Jets (BUF -2.5, 46.5)

Will the Bills let James cook? (I’m sorry)

On the one hand, Cook was really good as a rookie, averaging more yards per carry (5.7) than any RB not named Breece Hall (5.8) and posting the position’s eighth-best PFF receiving grade (71.8) among 55 qualified RBs. He might have fumbled away his first career carry, but credit to the rookie for not letting the football hit the ground on his next 126 touches.

On the other hand, the Bills never quite trusted him as an early-down answer, as virtually all of his games with double-digit rush attempts came during a Bills blowout.

The presence of Damien Harris and Latavius Murray has caused many to assume that Cook will be an afterthought on the ground this season.

But could that be a bit overblown considering neither veteran fetched a contract worth even $2 million this season?

There’s also the reality that Harris has played in just 38 of a possible 66 regular season games since entering the league in 2019, and Murray turns 34 in January.

While the dual-threat tendencies of Josh Allen haven’t led to bunches of expected PPR points for Bills RBs, the offense has been more willing to leave a single RB out on the field longer than most.

Word out of training camp certainly seems to paint the picture that the latter scenario is at least plausible for 2023.

“Cook went coast-to-coast as their unquestioned top running back at camp, displaying excellent pass-catching skills and a good knack for finding running lanes between the tackles

Cook also separated himself from backups Damien Harris and Latavius Murray, with Murray giving Harris a run for the primary backup duties due to his performance…With a cleared runway, Cook appears to be locked into a significant role barring injury.”

Sauce Gardner and company are one of the toughest tests for any WR group in the league, but the Jets did post bottom-five numbers in explosive pass-play rate (11.7%) allowed to RBs last season.

It’s fair to be at least a little bit conservative with Cook’s Week 1 projection — a committee system is certainly still possible and this is a tough matchup — but the rising second-year talent could quickly be knocking on the RB1 door with something close to a legit three-down workload inside of the NFL’s reigning second-ranked scoring offense.

Are we POSITIVE the Jets have enough in place for Aaron Rodgers to regain MVP form?

Yes, Rodgers is newly motivated and presumably healthier than last season when he played most of the final three months with a broken thumb.

Also yes, he’s not exactly entering a vastly superior offensive environment when strictly looking at the Jims and Joes involved:

Maybe Jets offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett simply deserves more credit than longtime Packers head coach Matt LaFleur for Rodgers’ late-career success, although that certainly didn’t shine through during Hackett’s tenure in Denver last season.

There’s also an argument to be made that rising second-year WR Garrett Wilson is SO much better than anything Rodgers was throwing to last season that a massive bounceback is inevitable.

Don’t get it twisted: Adding a talent like Rodgers to a team with a consensus top-five defense makes the Jets very deserving of their real-life hype, but I’d exercise caution in fantasy land when deciding between close start-sit decisions for anyone in the offense other than Wilson.