Halfway through the 2023 NFL regular season and a mere 51 days from fantasy championship Sunday: Football is footballing and it’s more imperative than ever to stay on top of the ever-shifting dynamics of America’s game.

Right? That feels right to me. Let’s roll with it.

Regardless: What follows are my 10 biggest questions ahead of this week’s action along with a bunch of other shit that I just so happened to find cool for one reason or another.

As always: It’s a great day to be great.

1. What does Kyler Murray’s return mean for this Cardinals offense?

Well, the bar certainly couldn’t be lower (not a short joke!) after rookie QB Clayton Tune “led” the offense to 58 total yards on 48 plays during the Cardinals’ Week 9 loss to the Browns.

But in all seriousness: The return of Kyler means the return of one of fantasy football’s productive QBs … ever. Just five signal-callers have averaged 20-plus fantasy points per game over the course of their career during the Super Bowl era (min. 16 starts):

  • Patrick Mahomes (22.9)
  • Josh Allen (22.1)
  • Deshaun Watson (20.7)
  • Murray (20.4)
  • Justin Herbert (20.2)

Yes, this didn’t exactly translate to elite real-life offenses: Arizona has ranked 16th, 13th, 11th and 21st in points per game since selecting Murray with the No. 1 overall pick of the 2019 NFL Draft.

Also yes, we simply haven’t seen Murray play professional football and function as anything other than an elite fantasy QB1.

Of course, teammates James Conner (knee, IR) and Marquise Brown have also proved more than capable of putting up big-time fantasy numbers alongside Kyler over the years. 

The hope is that the former veteran is healthy; being designated to return from the injured reserve list is a good start. Conner handled 19, 24, 16 and 13 combined carries and targets in his only four fully healthy games of 2023; he’s one of the league’s few true workhorses left and will work as a recommended upside RB2 start any week he’s healthy enough to suit up moving forward.

And then there’s the artist known as Hollywood, who objectively balled the f*ck out in his brief six-game run with Murray (returned to practice Wednesday) last season while DeAndre Hopkins was serving his suspension:

  • Week 1: 4 receptions-43 yards-1 TD (6 targets)
  • Week 2: 6-68-0 (11)
  • Week 3: 14-140-0 (17)
  • Week 4: 6-88-1 (11)
  • Week 5: 8-78-1 (10)
  • Week 6: 5-68-0 (9)

Overall, Brown worked as the PPR WR5 before breaking his foot.

Read that last sentence again. Madness. Only Stefon Diggs, Cooper Kupp, Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson had more PPR fantasy points than Brown during the first six weeks of his Cardinals career. His pre-injury pace: 122-1,374-9 — and he looked good doing it!

Credit to A.J. Terrell and the Falcons for allowing the 10th-fewest PPR points per game to opposing WRs this season, but Hollywood is right back in the weekly recommended start picture as an upside WR3 at worst.

I also like the idea of adding Rondale Moore in deeper leagues; the pint-sized slot maven posted 7-92-1, 8-69-0 and 9-94-0 receiving lines in his final three games with Murray last season and has found some newfound usage rushing the football in 2023.

You can target the Cardinals pieces for cheap on Underdog Fantasy, where you can get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you sign up below with promo code LIFE!

2. Soooo is Deshaun Watson good at football again?

His right shoulder certainly looked far healthier than what we saw during that ill-fated 12-snap performance against the Colts in Week 7.

The performance was still far from perfect. Watson displayed some erratic accuracy on his shorter pass attempts, while his two short TD passes featured an objectively lucky tipped ball that wound up deflecting straight to Amari Cooper as well as the Cardinals curiously declining to cover David Njoku near the goal line.

Still, Watson has now managed to return QB1 production in three of his full starts this season, with the only exception being a pressure-induced dud against T.J. Watt and company in Pittsburgh:

  • Week 1: 20.7 fantasy points (QB6)
  • Week 2: 11.6 (QB27)
  • Week 3: 21.2 (QB9)
  • Week 9: 19 (QB8)

Don’t call it a comeback just yet. Watson ranks just 24th in completion rate over expected (-0.7%) and 26th in EPA per dropback (-0.08); his average of 6.6 yards per attempt is still a far cry from the 8.3 mark he put forward during four seasons with the Texans.

Some might believe Watson is truly back, while others remain convinced he’s still operating as one of the league’s worst QBs: The truth (like in most cases) probably falls somewhere in between — that said it’s going to be really tough to expect anything resembling a big-time boom from this Browns passing game ahead of their Week 10 matchup against the Ravens.

Just how good is this group? Well, they’re allowing a TD on the lowest percentage of their opponent’s drives since … the 2000 Ravens (s/o Ben Solak). Defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald has engineered a defense capable of completely shutting down entire offenses for 60 minutes at a time:

  • Fantasy points per game allowed to QB: 10.3 (No. 1)
  • PPR points per game allowed to RB: 18.4 (No. 9)
  • PPR points per game allowed to WR: 30.9 (No. 8)
  • PPR points per game allowed to TE: 8.4 (No. 3)

Prolific passing games like the Lions and Seahawks could only muster six and three total points, respectively. I’ll be answering even somewhat close start/sit questions involving Browns players with the other guy ahead of this brutal spot — especially when also considering that Watsons and company will be without both of their starting offensive tackles after LT Jedrick Wills (knee, IR) was forced to join RT Jack Conklin (knee, IR) on the sideline.  

3. What is our early impression of the Will Levis experience?

Not too shabby — and head coach Mike Vrabel agreed enough to confirm that Levis is the team’s starting QB moving forward.

Things haven’t all been pretty. The rookie second-round pick joins Kenny Pickett, Jordan Love, Taylor Heinicke and P.J. Walker as the only QBs posting an adjusted completion rate south of 70% this season, while his four-TD debut was at least a little bit inflated thanks to two of his TDs to DeAndre Hopkins rather heavily being influenced by uncalled OPI as well as a badly blown coverage.

That said: The meh completion percentage is mostly because Levis has embraced his inner gunslinger, posting an NFL-high 11.4-yard average target depth. He also wasn’t exactly set up for success in Week 9 against T.J. Watt and company while being forced to operate behind PFF’s 30th-ranked offensive line that is now additionally rather banged up.

Will Levis

Oct 29, 2023; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Tennessee Titans quarterback Will Levis (8) during the first second at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports

There has been far more good than bad to Levis’ first two games — especially when considering he hasn’t even really shown off his underrated rushing ability yet. It’d make a lot of sense if fantasy managers are treated to some boom performances down the stretch thanks to playing one of the position’s single-easiest schedules:

  • Week 10 at Buccaneers: No. 31 in fantasy points per game allowed to QBs
  • Week 11 at Jaguars: No. 27
  • Week 12 vs. Panthers: No. 14
  • Week 13 vs Colts: No. 22
  • Week 14 at Dolphins: No. 23
  • Week 15 vs. Texans: No. 20
  • Week 16 vs. Seahawks: No. 16
  • Week 17 at Texans: No. 20

Levis is my matchup-induced QB15 this week ahead of guys like Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson and Jordan Love. Fire up the Titans’ triplets with confidence against a Buccaneers defense that looked lost against C.J. Stroud and company in Week 9.

4. Who would be the NFL’s best RBs in a pure point-per-volume fantasy league?

Here at the game’s top RBs in expected PPR points per game:

  • Alvin Kamara (23.5)
  • Josh Jacobs (19.7)
  • Christian McCaffrey (19.4)
  • Saquon Barkley (18.6)
  • Austin Ekeler (18.4)
  • Kyren Williams (17.8)
  • Tony Pollard (17.6)
  • David Montgomery (15.9)
  • Joe Mixon (15.8)
  • Travis Etienne (15.8)
  • D’Andre Swift (15.8)

Fantasy managers are likely continuing to start all of these talents without much of a second thought; just realize with Jacobs, Pollard and Mixon in particular that there should be better days ahead as long as they remain healthy enough to handle this sort of usage on a weekly basis.

I mean seriously: Pollard was borderline robbed of a TD in Week 9 against the Eagles. QB Dak Prescott appeared to confirm with the official that the Cowboys’ sixth offensive lineman had declared himself as an eligible receiver, only for the officials to nullify the two-yard plunge due to an illegal formation penalty.

Perhaps Cowboys OT Chuma Edoga never told the official himself, but smarter ball knowers than myself like The Athletic’s Nate Tice and former NFL o-lineman Geoff Schwartz are willing to give him the benefit of the doubt considering this is “like the number one thing the 6th OL is told to do.”

The Cowboys' featured RB has now gone an NFL-high 136 consecutive touches without a TD this season; he should have more than a few chances to break the streak as a 16.5-point (!) home favorite against the Giants this Sunday.

5. What defenses have massive kryptonites against specific positions?

The NFL’s bottom three defenses against specific positions in terms of fantasy points (PPR) allowed per game:

  • QB: Bears, Commanders, Buccaneers
  • RB: Broncos, Panthers, Cardinals
  • WR: Eagles, Buccaneers, Commanders
  • TE: Bengals, Texans, Broncos

Some notable FLEX options that are accordingly deserving of recommended start treatment ahead of these mouth-watering spots:

  • Titans QB Will Levis (at TB), Seahawks QB Geno Smith (vs. WSH)
  • Bills RB James Cook (vs. DEN)
  • Titans WR DeAndre Hopkins (at TB), Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (vs. WSH)
  • Texans TE Dalton Schultz (at CIN)

The Seahawks‘ additional stud WRs are obviously also recommended starts; just realize the Ohio State product has truly begun to come on strong in recent performances, posting 4-63-1, 3-36-1 and 6-63-0 receiving lines over the last month of action. Probably not exactly the heights that fantasy managers were hoping for when they used a sixth- or seventh-round pick to acquire JSN back in early September, but a real boom could be on the horizon against this bottom-two defense in TD rate (7.9%) and passer rating (116.1) allowed to targets aligned from the slot.

And then there’s Cook, who has finished with fewer than 75 scoreless yards in four of his last five games despite continuing to technically work as the Bills’ lead back. The second-year talent hasn’t been bad, but it’s also not like he’s been putting up the sort of rushing numbers that demand an increase in usage:

  • Yards per carry: 4.7 (No. 9 among 46 RBs with 50-plus carries this season)
  • Yards after contact per carry: 2.9 (tied for No. 20)
  • Missed tackles forced per carry: 0.14 (No. 34)

The initial metric is the only thing that really matters in fantasy football leagues not rewarding style points; just realize Cook has benefited mightily from facing eight-plus defenders in the box on just 10.2% of his carries this season — the fifth-lowest mark in the NFL.

While Leonard Fournette could make things annoying eventually, Cook does deserve recommended start treatment against the Broncos’ 31st-ranked scoring defense — only the Bengals (27.5) and Cowboys (27.5) are implied to score more points than the Bills (27.25) this week. 

6. Will Taysom Hill keep getting away with this?

Probably. The professional vulture has recently been one of the league’s highest-scoring fantasy assets regardless of whatever position you want to label him as. Hill’s ranks at each position over the last four weeks:

Total fantasy point rank at each position

  • QB: 8th
  • RB: 3rd
  • WR: 5th
  • TE: 2nd

While these totals are a bit inflated thanks to Hill having the benefit of four games played compared to others, Travis f*cking Kelce hasn’t had a bye during this period … and has only scored 1.4 more PPR points than Hill. Let that sink in.

Taysom Hill

Nov 5, 2023; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Taysom Hill (7) rushes with the ball against the Chicago Bears during the second half at the Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

It’s tough to see things falling apart too much for Hill considering just how well he’s performed with this newfound volume. Seriously: Even the returns of RB Jamaal Williams and TE Juwan Johnson have done nothing to stop Hill’s dual-threat usage:

  • Week 6: 1-2-0 rushing, 7-49-0 receiving
  • Week 7: 5-18-1, 4-50-0
  • Week 8: 9-63-2, 1-14-0
  • Week 9: 11-52-0, 4-13-1

While Hill has run just 25 combined routes over the past two weeks after racking up 36 and 45 such snaps in Weeks 6 and 7, it hasn’t overly mattered thanks to his continued ability to make good things happen on the ground. Overall, an NFL-high 38.8% of Hill’s rush attempts have gone for first downs and/or TDs (among non-QBs with 40-plus carries).

Fire up Hill as a legit upside TE1 moving forward inside of a Saints offense that has suddenly scored 24-plus points in four of their last five games after previously not reaching that threshold in 10 consecutive contests.

7. What would the first round of fantasy drafts look like if we did a rest-of-the-season session today?

Terrific question. Thanks man! No problem dude!

I would roll with the firing top-12 players if drafting for the rest of 2023, today:

1. 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey: The overall RB1; 20 PPR points feels like a disappointment.

2. Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill: On pace for 2,033 receiving yards and 17 TDs as the engine of the NFL’s top-ranked scoring offense.

3. Eagles WR A.J. Brown: Incredibly gained 125-plus yards in six consecutive games before last week’s 7-66-1 “let down.” Less target competition than ever with Dallas Goedert (forearm, IR) out of the picture.

4. Chargers RB Austin Ekeler: The NFL’s premiere TD scorer boasts one of the most fantasy-friendly roles in the game thanks to his combination of receiving and goal-line volume.

5. Saints RB Alvin Kamara: One of just four RBs averaging north of 20 PPR points per game on the season and getting FED check-downs in this ascending Saints offense.

6. Jaguars RB Travis Etienne: On pace for an absurd 378 touches and has had more than enough scoring opportunities to make up for a rather brutal 3.9 yards per carry.

7. Jets RB Breece Hall: Still very much looks the part of one of the game’s most explosive young talents and has averaged 20 touches per game over the last month of action.

8. Bills WR Stefon Diggs: The NFL leader in receptions (70) is on pace for career-high marks in receiving yards (1,576), TDs (13) and targets (183) alike.

9. Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown: Really hasn’t missed this season; a PPR cheat code getting funneled targets inside of the game’s ninth-ranked scoring offense.

10. Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase: Would be higher on this list if not actively dealing with a back injury and more target competition than these other WRs in the form of Tee Higgins.

11. Colts RB Jonathan Taylor: Finally released in Week 9 to the tune of a season-high 23 touches. A huge end-of-season stretch feels inevitable as the clear-cut engine of a Colts offense that surprisingly ranks seventh in scoring this season.

12. Raiders RB Josh Jacobs: The toughest pick of the group, but ultimately Jacobs ranks second in RB expected PPR points per game this season and is still the RB12 on a per-game basis despite offering middling efficiency for most of the season. Interim head coach Antonio Pierce’s one goal in life seems to be to feed Jacobs the football. 

Especially tough guys to leave out included: 

  • Vikings WR Justin Jefferson (hamstring, IR), who had his practice window opened, but a quick return seems unlikely with early chatter about this Sunday being “a little aggressive.” Getting back following the team’s Week 13 bye might make some sense.
  • Rams WR Cooper Kupp, who hasn’t reached 50 yards or scored a TD since Week 6 and now faces the prospect of potentially being without Matthew Stafford (right thumb) following the team’s Week 10 bye.
  • Chargers WR Keenan Allen, who continues to make the most out of life as Justin Herbert’s clear-cut No. 1 WR, although the 31-year-old veteran has slowed down just a tad by averaging “just” 64 receiving yards per game over his past five performances compared to 134 yards per contest in the first three weeks of the season.
  • Chiefs TE Travis Kelce, who is still fantasy’s overall TE1, although his career-low averages of 10.5 yards per reception and 8.3 yards per target have me concerned that back-to-back 6-68-0 and 3-14-0 duds aren’t completely random bad luck outcomes.
  • Raiders WR Davante Adams, who remains incredible at football but has newfound high-end pass-game competition in Jakobi Myers in terms of targets per game (9.4 vs. 7.8) and also doesn’t exactly possess the world’s most-proven QB in Aidan O’Connell.
  • Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb, who has been on absolute fire on the back of 11-191-0, 12-158-2 and 7-117-0 performances; just realize he still has five games this season with seven or fewer targets in an offense that still wants to establish the ole run.
  • Giants RB Saquon Barkley, who has all the volume one could want, but is being forced to operate inside of the Giants’ dumpster fire of an offense. Nobody is averaging more points per game (11.2) than this Tommy DeVito-led squad.
  • Cowboys RB Tony Pollard, who is destined for some quality regression considering he’s gone an NFL-high 136 consecutive touches without a TD this season, but the newfound lack of high-end efficiency keeps him out of Round 1.
  • Falcons RB Bijan Robinson, who has a whopping *four* more touches than teammate Tyler Allgeier this season. Of course, Robinson (5.5 yards per touch) has made far more out of his opportunities than Allgeier (3.5), but Arthur Smith gonna Arthur Smith.

8. Backfield competitions

There are four evolving backfield situations that demand the attention of fantasy managers at the moment:

Ravens: The emergence of Keaton Mitchell has sent the fantasy community into a frenzy, as the rookie looked good on his way to converting nine carries into 138 yards and a score. And yet, Gus Edwards (5-52-2) also made some plays, while Justice Hill (13-40-0) wound up racking up nearly as many carries as both former backs had combined.

All three RBs had four carries in the first half; we’re going to need to see a big-time change in usage for managers to overly trust Mitchell anytime soon.

That said: The explosive rookie might just be one injury to either Gus Bus or Hill away from seeing double-digit touches per game far more consistently. The pint-sized (5-foot-8, 179 pounds) speedster (4.37-second 40-yard dash) has RB2 upside down the stretch *if* this backfield wave continues to flow in his direction.

Lions: The expected return of David Montgomery (ribs) could be problematic for rookie Jahmyr Gibbs, who ripped off PPR RB2 and RB1 performances during his two spot starts as the offense featured back in Weeks 7 and 8.

It’d make sense if things are split a bit more evenly down the stretch with Gibbs seemingly performing far too well to just place on the bench. Still, the rookie also wasn’t exactly sucking to start the year. 

He struggled to see anything resembling overly fantasy-friendly volume in what is basically a three-game sample size with both players fully healthy:

  • Week 1: 27% snaps, 7-42-0 rushing, 2-18-0 receiving
  • Week 2: 48%, 7-17-0, 7-39-0
  • Week 4: 38%, 8-40-0, 4-11-0 

Ultimately, any RB getting double-digit touches inside of the league’s ninth-ranked scoring offense deserves to be in far more fantasy lineups than not.

The Lions are on pace to join the 2017 Saints as the only offenses to produce multiple top-12 RBs in PPR points per game in a single season in at least a decade — this is due in part to each obtaining a workhorse role when the other has been sidelined, but both backs rank inside of my top-16 options at the position this week ahead of a potential shootout against the Chargers’ ever-leaky run defense.

Colts: Jonathan Taylor easily had his biggest role of the season in Week 9.

Jonathan Taylor

Suddenly the lead RB inside of the game’s seventh-ranked scoring offense and running behind the 10th-best offensive line in yards before contact per carry, weekly fireworks could be on the horizon for one of the game’s best pure rushers. Don’t be surprised if JT has a German-themed boom performance against a Patriots defense that ranks just 26th in scoring this season — that would easily be the worst finish of Bill Belichick’s 38-year career as a head coach and defensive coordinator.

Seahawks: On the one hand, Kenneth Walker (calf) was listed on the team’s injury report in Week 8 and had to deal with a negative blowout game script in Week 9.

On the other, rookie Zach Charbonnet has led this backfield in snaps in back-to-back weeks since returning from injury.

Seahawks RBs

Walker is still getting the majority of the touches, but Charbonnet has certainly made his case for more opportunities by winning the battle in yards per carry (5.3 vs. 4.2) while grading out as PFF’s third-best pass-blocking RB among 61 qualified players.

It’d certainly make sense if the Seahawks, you know, make their 2023 second-round RB an important piece of the offense. Charb’s role isn’t big enough to trust just yet, but he remains one of the best handcuffs in all of fantasy football while also generally trending up toward potentially earning some FLEX value down the stretch.

9. Who deserves to be in the fantasy football MVP conversation halfway through the season?

Fantasy football MVP honors will be heavily influenced by what happens during the final two months of the 2023 season.

Still, that doesn’t mean we can’t give some flowers to the midseason frontrunners!

  • Tyreek Hill: Yes, it cost a first-round pick to acquire him. Also yes, quite literally nobody has scored more PPR points this season — his 2.5 PPR point lead on WR2 A.J. Brown is larger than at any other position.
  • Travis Etienne: RB4 on a per-game basis and was regularly available in Round 4 of drafts.
  • Christian McCaffrey: Average of 25.1 PPR points per game is the second-highest mark of his career and better than anyone else in the league at the moment.
  • Puka Nacua: Trending downward, but still the WR10 in PPR points per game despite being on waiver wires of most shapes and sizes when the season started.
  • Adam Thielen: Late-round darling is posting WR9 numbers in PPR points per game while serving as the engine of an otherwise miserable Panthers offense.

10. What are your three bold calls for Week 10?

Every week I put together matchup-specific charts to help determine the week’s biggest advantages by combining offensive and defensive rates in explosive plays, pressure, yards before contact, passing yards per dropback and EPA. This provides singular metrics to help quantity advantages on both sides of the ball instead of always having to go, “Offense ranks x, defense ranks y.”

The following three players might have a red flag or two in their Week 10 projection — that’s why they aren’t ranked as sure-thing top-12 options at their position — but I believe there’s enough of an edge in the matchup to warrant enhanced optimism:

1. Josh Reynolds booms with 100-plus yards and a TD against the Chargers.

Still very much a near-every-down receiver even with Jameson Williams back from suspension, Reynolds seems fully healthy following the team’s Week 9 bye and probably shouldn’t lose much — if any — work to recently acquired Donovan Peoples-Jones.

No offense is set up better than the Lions this week when it comes to combined pass yards per dropback.

2. Chigoziem Okonkwo goes 6-103-1, posts first TE1 finish of 2023.

It’s been a disappointing first half of 2023 for the second-year TE, who was a popular later-round option coming off his incredibly efficient rookie season.

While the counting numbers have been slacking, Chiggy posted a season-high 82% route rate in Week 9 and is getting to benefit from 

  1. Enhanced pass-game performance with Will Levis under center, and
  2. Playing a dog-shit Buccaneers secondary fresh off allowing 496 total yards and 39 points to C.J. Stroud and company.

The Titans are popping as one of this week’s best set-up offenses in terms of creating explosive plays through the air. I LOVE Chiggy as a low-priced TE punt option on DraftKings in particular.

3. Javonte Williams totals 150-plus yards and two TDs against the Bills on Monday night football.

Presumably more healthy than he’s been all season, Williams saw season-high marks in snap rate (66%) and rush attempt share (82%) prior to the Broncos’ Week 9 bye.

Denver has embraced the ground game more than ever recently with solid results, posting dropback over expected rates south of 7% in two of their last three matchups.

While this backfield doesn’t seem to be set up all that great in terms of combined yards before contact, nobody has a higher mark in combined explosive run play rate.

Other Notes for Week 10

  • Patriots WR Demario Douglas continues to work as the offense’s only real full-time WR in the absence of Kendrick Bourne (knee, IR) and DeVante Parker (concussion). The latter WR has managed to practice in a limited fashion this week and could be healthy enough to return Sunday, but either way: Douglas is the only recommended WR start inside the league’s 31st-ranked scoring offense. This reality makes Sunday’s matchup against the Colts’ 28th-ranked scoring defense a bit of a “moveable force meets a stoppable object” situation.
     
  • “Yeah, I’m thinking I’m back.” — Aaron Jones.
     
  • Steelers RB Jaylen Warren is drastically out-performing Najee Harris in terms of yards per carry (4.7 vs. 3.8) and missed tackles forced per carry (0.32 vs. 0.2). Note that Harris (17%) and Warren (14.5%) have faced eight-plus defenders in the box on a similar percentage of their carries this season. Warren has also been the vastly superior receiver in terms of yards per route run (1.82 vs. 0.86). All that said: Harris played a season-high 60% of the offense’s snaps in Week 9 and remains the likely touch leader during any given week.
     
  • Shoutout to Diontae Johnson for snapping his 655-day steak without a TD. The target-hog receiver has ripped off 5-79-0, 8-85-0 and 7-90-1 receiving lines since returning from the injured reserve list, easily out-targeting George Pickens (29 vs. 18) along the way. The overall WR6 in PPR points over the past three weeks, Johnson is back to weekly upside WR2 treatment despite Kenny Pickett continuing to underwhelm more weeks than not.
     
  • Another shoutout to Falcons WR KhaDarel Hodge for making the most out of his extra opportunities with Drake London (groin) banged up over the last two weeks. While the 3-75-0 and 3-60-0 performances aren’t exactly worth chasing in fantasy land, Hodge has displayed some ridiculous YAC ability recently and nearly made one of the best catches of the season last week.
  • New Vikings savior QB Joshua Dobbs had one helluva first week in Minnesota. “The Passtronaut” deserves credit for accounting for three total TDs in back-to-back weeks inside of completely different offenses; just realize the 28-year-old journeyman has still been an objectively bad QB in 2023:
    • EPA per dropback: -0.06 (No. 24 among 35 QBs with 100-plus dropbacks this season)
    • Completion percentage over expected: -1.5% (No. 26)
    • PFF pass grade: 57.2 (No. 28)
    • Passer rating: 83.3 (tied for No. 24)
    • Yards per attempt: 5.8 (No. 33)
       
  • It’d make sense if the eventual return of a healthy Justin Jefferson (hamstring, IR) helps lift Dobbs to new heights; just don’t get carried away with expecting constant fantasy boom in the near term.
     
  • Life was good for Justin Herbert in Week 8’s primetime destruction of the Bears, but otherwise, his production has been rather mid ever since losing Mike Williams (knee, IR) in Week 3:
    • Week 9: 136 pass yards-0 TD-0 INT, 7.1 fantasy points (QB25 fantasy finish)
    • Week 8: 298-3-0, 24 (QB8)
    • Week 7: 259-1-2, 12.9 (QB20)
    • Week 6: 227-2-1, 19.6 (QB5)
    • Week 5: BYE
    • Week 4: 167-1-1, 24.4 (QB5 — heavily aided by two goal-line rush TDs)
       
  • Of course, matchups against the Raiders, Cowboys, Chiefs and Jets haven’t exactly been layups, but Aidan Hutchinson and company also haven’t been too shabby throughout 2023. Herbert remains a consensus top-four QB in the Fantasy Life Rankings; just realize his HUGE numbers to kick off the season haven’t been replicated over the last month and a half of action.
     
  • Falcons RB Bijan Robinson is the RB25 in expected PPR points per game this season. Meaning: His RB22 production on a per-game basis is actually impressive relative to his workload. It’d make sense if the 2023 NFL Draft’s No. 8 overall pick finally experiences a mega boom of sorts against the Cardinals’ 30th-ranked defense in PPR points per game allowed to the position, but then again, it is Arthur Smith we’re dealing with here.
     
  • The Cowboys’ Week 9 loss to the Eagles came with their usual late-game hilariousness, but don’t let that distract from the fact that Dak Prescott has been playing like a man possessed over his last 12 quarters of action:
    • Week 9: 374 pass yards-3 TD-0 INT, 28.4 fantasy points (QB2 fantasy finish)
    • Week 8: 304-4-1, 29.1 (QB3)
    • Week 7: BYE
    • Week 6: 272-1-0, 24.9 (QB1)
       
  • Prescott ranks third in yards per attempt (9.1) and is tied with Jalen Hurts for the highest passer rating (125.5) during this stretch. Pretty, pretty, pretty good. 
     
  • Still, you know what has REALLY helped Prescott over the last few weeks? No. 1 WR Ceedee Lamb, who has ripped off 7-117-0, 12-158-2 and most recently 11-191-0 receiving lines over the past three weeks. How exactly are defenses supposed to deal with this?
CeeDee Lamb Route Tree
  • Giants RB Saquon Barkley deserves better. The league’s 32nd-ranked scoring offense has been snake-bitten by injuries more than any other squad this season, but just keeps on keeping on when it comes to feeding Barkley. Overall, the longtime stud RB has handled a whopping 110 touches since returning from injury in Week 6 — 21 more than any other back in the NFL. Barkley has accordingly averaged a solid enough 14.1 half-PPR points per game during the span; it’d just be a lot cooler if he could handle this hefty workload without worrying about it potentially leading to an issue that could sap all of his leverage ahead of offseason contract negotiations.
     
  • Commanders QB Sam Howell has thrown a whopping 97 passes over the past two weeks … and only taken four total sacks! It’s been a minor miracle — but clearly Howell and company have (understandably) placed a newfound importance on not taking these sorts of negative plays. Credit to Howell for doing a MUCH better job at not letting pressures always lead to sacks, helping the Commanders score 51 points in back-to-back not exactly ideal matchups against the Eagles and Patriots:
    • Weeks 1-7: 33% of pressures converted into sacks (worst mark among 35 qualified QBs)
    • Weeks 8-9: 8.3% (No. 5 best mark)
       
  • Yes, Zach Wilson had that cool performance against the Chiefs this season where he legit out-played Patrick Mahomes over the course of a 60-minute football game. Also yes, Wilson is averaging a career-low six yards per attempt and -0.23 EPA per dropback. The bar was low entering 2023, and the former No. 2 overall pick has not cleared it on his way to throwing just five TDs this season. Reminder: It’s Week 10. 
     
  • Best of luck to Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers in their effort to topple the Jets’ league-best defense in PPR points per game allowed to opposing WRs. Through nine weeks CeeDee Lamb (143), A.J. Brown (131), Stefon Diggs (102) and Keenan Allen (77) are the only WRs to clear even 50 yards against Sauce Gardner and company.
     
  • You know what’s great? Football coaches who go out of their way to get our fantasy players more production. I think I speak for all Josh Jacobs fantasy managers when I say: Thank you, Antonio Pierce.
     
  • It remains to be seen just how healthy both Ja’Marr Chase (back) and Tee Higgins will be for their Week 10 matchup against the Texans; just realize Chase’s middling 4-41-0 production in Week 9 coulda, shoulda, woulda been so much more had he not: 1.) Dropped a two-yard TD, and 2.) Been underthrown on a bomb that sure looked like it was heading for a 57-yard house call.
  • Nobody has thrown more interceptions than Josh Allen (23) since Week 1 of last season, and the 5-4 Bills are coming off their third-worst offensive performance of the season when it comes to total yard (317). Of course, Allen does still lead the NFL in QBR (75.3) and ranks first in completion percentage over expected (+8.8%) in 2023. I tend to lean toward the “everything will be just fine in Buffalo” side of the equation; don’t be surprised if Allen and company put forward a “ya’ll must have forgot” sort of effort on Monday night against the Broncos’ 31st-ranked scoring defense.
     
  • Buccaneers RB Rachaad White has ripped off three straight top-12 PPR finishes with unbelievably nice utilization and it’s like none of you even care:

Rachaad White

  • While White’s rushing efficiency is nothing to write home about, his average of 1.26 yards per route run ranks 13th among 45 qualified RBs — and nobody has forced more missed tackles (16) on receptions this season.
     
  • Don’t expect the Buccaneers to score 37 points every week — they previously hadn’t cracked 20 in a game since Week 4 — but White’s pass-game prowess should again be on display this Sunday against a pass-funnel Titans squad that seldom allows opposing RBs to experience much success on the ground anyway.

Best of luck in Week 10 and beyond!

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