Fantasy Questions Week 13. The 10 Biggest Fantasy Questions for the Week.

Week 13 is here. It’s time to either secure your fantasy football playoff spot or die trying: What follows are my 10 biggest questions ahead of an ever-important week of action that is poised to force fantasy managers to make some TOUGH decisions with six teams on bye.

As always: It’s a great day to be great.

1. Are Zack Moss and Kyren Williams right back to being the skeleton keys needed for your fantasy championship?

It’s looking that way! Jonathan Taylor (thumb) is expected to miss multiple weeks and undergo surgery, while Williams picked up right where he left off with a position-high 38.5 half-PPR points during the Rams’ demolition over the Cardinals.

Let’s focus on Moss first. Cousin of Santana (and Sinorice), we got a solid four-game sample of Moss functioning as the team’s undisputed No. 1 RB back in Weeks 2 to 5:

That’s RB1-worthy utilization right there, and Moss accordingly turned in three top-10 PPR finishes during this stretch. Credit to the ex-Bills back for ranking inside the position’s top-10 players in missed tackles forced per carry (0.21, tied for No. 8) and yards per carry (4.8, No. 10) — Moss has truly made the most out of his opportunities all season long.

It’s also helped that this offensive environment has been … pretty awesome? Wild but true: The Texans, Colts and Chiefs have all scored exactly 162 points on offense this season.

Up next is a Titans run defense that has usually funneled production to the air in recent years, but that sure wasn’t the case back in Week 5 when Moss torched them for 23-165-2 rushing and 2-30-0 receiving lines. The prized handcuff is locked in as a top-15 option at the position; I would start Moss ahead of guys like Breece Hall and Rhamondre Stevenson thanks to the reality that the scoring upside in this Gardner Minshew-led attack isn’t nearly as bad as what most RBs with backup QBs under center are being forced to endure.

And then there’s Williams, who actually didn’t have the world’s best utilization in his return from the injured reserve despite the gaudy fantasy numbers. That said: Head coach Sean McVay still found a way to feed the Rams’ lead RB 22 total touches, making it the fourth time in six tries that the 2022 fifth-round pick garnered a touch total starting with the number two since being promoted to starting duties back in Week 2.

Yes, back-to-back tough matchups against the Browns and Ravens aren’t ideal for Williams’ scoring upside. Also yes, his pass-game work is far too fantasy-friendly to overly worry about a tough on-paper matchup in the run game. The top RBs in PPR points per game from purely receiving production this season are as follows:

1. Alvin Kamara (11.9)
2. Christian McCaffrey (10.6)
3. Austin Ekeler (8)
4. Rachaad White (7.8)
5. Kyren Williams (7.7)

Look for Williams’ enhanced pass-game role to continue as long as Cooper Kupp (ankle) looks like a shell of himself while playing through the pain; you don’t need two hands to count the number of RBs to start ahead of the Rams’ featured back — and his ranking will go even higher should First-Team All-Universe DE Myles Garrett (shoulder) be unable to suit up.

2. Is it Taysom Hill boom week?

The Saints might not have much of a choice but to feature their hard-working alpha male jackhammer considering the state of their WR room at the moment:

• Michael Thomas (knee, IR): Remains out of the picture for at least the next three weeks.
• Chris Olave (concussion): Could clear the protocol in time for Sunday, but it’s rare to see players do so without missing at least one game. Caution is especially warranted here considering this is Olave’s third documented concussion.
• Rashid Shaheed (quad): Reportedly avoided major injury, but still likely unavailable for at least this week’s matchup against the Lions.

This leaves Derek Carr with household names like A.T. Perry, Keith Kirkwood and Lynn Bowden as his top-three receivers. It’d also make a lot of sense if Juwan Johnson (season-high 85% route rate in Week 12) is more or less featured as a full-time receiver.

Oct 29, 2023; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Taysom Hill (7) is tackled by Indianapolis Colts defensive tackle DeForest Buckner (99) in the second half at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports

Or maybe the Saints just say f*ck it, let’s give the ball to Taysom 20 times and see what happens. The 33-year-old “Mormon Missile” (his real nickname I swear) has racked up nine, three, 15, 10, nine and eight touches in his last six games, generally making good things happen as a rusher and receiver alike.

Overall, Hill’s average of 5.0 yards per carry ranks 12th among 64 players with at least 50 carries this season. He’s also already caught a career-high 24 passes while averaging 12 yards per attempt on a whopping six passes. 

It’d make sense if stud Lions DE Aidan Hutchinson makes a few splash plays, but the days of at all fearing this 2023 Lions defense are long over. Overall, they have allowed at least 26 points in four of their last five games and have posted the league’s fourth-worst EPA allowed per play in three games since returning from their Week 9 bye.

Guys like Travis Kelce, George Kittle and Sam LaPorta deserve no doubt starting treatment ahead of Hill this week, but after that I struggle to put anyone other than Trey McBride and maybe Evan Engram ahead of the Saints’ do-it-all vulture thanks to the heightened expectation that he’ll see double-digit touches inside of this banged-up offense. I would have included Dalton Schultz in the start-ahead group before last week’s puzzling part-time usage alongside Brevin Jordan.

3. What DST should you pick up now in order to THRIVE in the fantasy playoffs?

Four defenses have both a top-10 1.) Easiest schedule in Weeks 15 and 17, and 2.) Ranked unit in “Havoc” which measures how often a defense is creating fantasy-friendly things like pressure, forced fumbles, interceptions, pass deflections and tackles for a loss or no gain happen on a per-play basis:

• 49ers (97% rostered in Yahoo leagues)
• Browns (85%)
• Eagles (73%) 
• Jets (75%)

Sadly, these good-in-real-life groups with especially cozy end-of-season schedules are likely unavailable in your leagues at the moment, but keep an eye out for the Eagles potentially becoming available ahead of tough matchups with the 49ers and Cowboys prior to their b-e-a-utiful fantasy playoff stretch against the Seahawks, Giants and Cardinals.

The following defenses aren’t nearly as polished as the above group, but they at least aren’t horrible and do possess the sort of end-of-season schedules to potentially boom in a major way when you need it most:

• Rams (20% rostered in Yahoo leagues): Close the season with the Commanders and Saints at home before traveling to face the Giants in Week 17 — AKA two of the three most-prone QBs to take sacks in the NFL as well as either Derek Carr or Jameis Winston. The Rams still have a 40% chance of making the playoffs and figure to have a motivated Aaron Donald in these smashable spots. 
• Texans (12 %): Get the Titans in Weeks 15 and 17 as well as the Browns in Week 16. Involved QBs could be Ryan Tannehill, Will Levis, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, P.J. Walker and even Joe Flacco. Still very much fighting for their playoff life, the Texans haven’t been perfect on defense this season, but have proved capable of shutting down bad offenses like the Steelers (6 points allowed), Saints (13), Panthers (15) and Cardinals (16) among others.

4. What should we be looking forward to most in the Eagles-49ers game of the week?

Two of the top three teams in point differential will square off in a rematch of last season’s injury-riddled NFC Championship. The 49ers will have the luxury of suiting up three QBs if they desire as they seek revenge over Jalen Hurts and company.

Both offenses and defenses are largely awesome; there’s a reason these squads are a combined 18 and four this year. They have each scored exactly 310 points … but the Eagles have allowed an additional 76 points on defense. A quick look at each team’s run/pass EPA per play splits on offense and defense reveals the one true glaring weak spot in this matchup.

On offense, these are easily two of the game’s most complete and best units.

• EPA per play: 49ers (+0.136, 1st), Eagles (+0.051, 6th)
• EPA per pass play: 49ers (+0.283, 1st), Eagles (+0.099, 7th)
• EPA per run play: 49ers (-0.024, 8th), Eagles (-0.014, 7th)

Meanwhile, the likes of Fred Warner and Nick Bosa have the 49ers again sitting pretty as a top-five overall unit, but the Eagles fall outside of the league’s top half across the board.

• EPA allowed per play: 49ers (-0.143, 4th), Eagles (-0.025, 19th)
• EPA allowed per pass play: 49ers (-0.169, 5th), Eagles (-0.010, 17th)
• EPA allowed per run play: 49ers (-0.083, 17th), Eagles (-0.064, 20th)

The pass play number is particularly concerning in the year 2023. This secondary has allowed north of 330 passing yards in three of their last four games, with the one exception not exactly soothing concerns given some of the high-profile drops that still managed to occur.

The case for Philly: Home-field advantage and the potential for improved health, although the early-week injury report only featured DT Jordan Davis (hamstring) and DT Milton Williams (concussion) get in limited practices among their five banged-up defensive players.

Ultimately, the 49ers haven’t been held under 27 points this season when equipped with five of their six top offensive stars in Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and, yes, LT Trent Willaims. Their three straight losses occurred without Samuel or Williams healthy enough to participate. 

Don’t be surprised if this one comes down to whether or not the Eagles offense can keep pace in a potential shootout, because nothing we’ve seen in 2023 indicates that this new-look Philly defense is capable of shutting down Kyle Shanahan’s high-octane attack.

5. Is Devin Singletary suddenly a must-start RB1?

It’s looking that way! The ex-Bills veteran took over the backfield while Dameon Pierce was sidelined due to injury and didn’t look back once the Texans’ second-year RB returned last week:

Here’s the potential issue: Singletary has seemingly established himself as the team’s lead pass-down back, but the actual rush attempt discrepancy between him and Pierce (6 vs. 5) was largely negligible in a game that featured the Texans post a +15% dropback rate over expected.

This was a pretty good game-plan move against the Jaguars’ pass-funnel defense and reflects the reality that offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik has been willing to play into good on-paper matchups to a heavy extent since returning from the team’s Week 7 bye:

• Week 8 vs. CAR: -12% dropback rate over expected (DBOE) vs. No. 32 ranked defense in EPA allowed per rush
• Week 9 vs. TB: +8% DBOE vs. No. 2 ranked run defense
• Week 10 vs. CIN: -5% DBOE vs. No. 27 ranked run defense
• Week 11 vs. ARZ: +4% DBOE vs. No. 29 ranked run defense
• Week 12 vs. JAX: +15% DBOE vs. No. 14 ranked run defense

This is some serious flip-flopping in offensive tendency; the only matchup that featured Slowik not attacking his opponent’s glaring weakness came against the Cardinals, but that’s honestly the toughest one to really take much away from anyway considering Arizona has been brutal against the pass and run alike this season.

Up next is a matchup against a Broncos defense that ranks a lowly 26th in EPA allowed per run play this season. Only the Bengals have allowed more rushing yards before contact per attempt.

It’s not a given that Singletary’s snap share will remain as elite in a matchup that could feature the Texans lean far more on the run game than they have over the last two weeks, but even then he looks like a safe bet for 15-plus combined carries and targets inside this ever-lethal C.J. Stroud-led attack. 

So to answer the original question: No, Singletary is not a must-start RB1 with his Week 12 usage potentially being a matchup-induced fugazi, but yes he’s still someone who should be started in the majority of lineups thanks to his pristine offensive scoring environment and smashable Week 13 matchup. I would start him ahead of guys like Joe Mixon and the Steelers RBs, who don’t offer the same weekly multi-TD upside inside their lesser offenses.

6. Is Rashee Rice finally a weekly must-start WR2?

Pretty much! I won’t disagree with someone who wants to rank the explosive rookie just outside the position’s top-24 options, but Rice’s Week 12 bump in route usage corresponded with season-high marks in targets (10), receptions (8) and yards (107) alike.

And here’s the thing: Rice continued to look GOOD with his opportunities.

Rice’s superpower is his ability to RACK up yards after the catch. Overall, only Deebo Samuel has a higher YAC rating in ESPN’s advanced receiving metrics, while his average of +1.8 yards after the catch above expectation ranks seventh among qualified WRs (Next-Gen Stats). It’d make sense if this demonstrated goodness continues to lead to more and more opportunities inside of a Chiefs offense dying to get someone else involved alongside Travis Kelce (they’ve even admitted as much).

The potential problem: Rice’s bump in usage came in a week that saw the Chiefs without both Mecole Hardman (thumb) and Kadarius Toney (ankle/hip). As much as I love the thought that Kansas City realized something had to change following their Week 12 loss to the Eagles and made this necessary adjustment, it’s curious that Rice initially posted a middling 52% route rate as part of a six-man rotation coming out of the team’s Week 10 bye.

Optimism is warranted here: Rice looks the part of the Chiefs’ best WR and should finish second in targets down the stretch behind only Taylor Swift’s boyfriend. Still, I’d like to see his 68% route rate and high-end target total from last week replicated with a healthier supporting cast before firing up the rookie ahead of fellow good WRs with far more established roles like Marquise Brown, Terry McLaurin and D.K. Metcalf.

7. Is criticism of Justin Herbert’s win-loss record warranted?

The 2020 NFL Draft’s No. 6 overall pick is now just 29-31 as a starter while on the verge of missing the playoffs (New York Times gives the Chargers a 9% chance of making it). However, ball knowers regularly continue to rank Herbert inside the position’s top-five best players, noting that the rocket-armed 25-year-old has been anything but the problem in Los Angeles.

I’m with them. Herbert has engineered one of the game’s best offenses despite largely only having one consistent avenue to go with the football all year in Keenan Allen:

Chargers team ranks:

• EPA per play: +0.008 (No. 10)
• EPA per pass play: +0.094 (No. 8)
• EPA per run play: -0.154 (No. 26)
• Points per game: 24.5 (No. 8)
• Yards per play: 5.4 (No. 12)
• Yards per pass attempt: 7.2 (No. 11)

Maybe not top-five goodness, but still pretty impressive when considering Herbert has been playing with a legit bottom-four supporting cast when it comes to averaging team PFF grades in receiving, rushing, pass blocking and run blocking (everything except passing):

• Jaguars (62.9)
• Chargers (61.9)
• Panthers (58.3)
• Jets (57.9)
• Giants (53.5)

Look no further than the Packers game to find numerous examples of this injury-riddled pass-catching group killing drive after drive. Herbert hasn’t been perfect this season — his +0.5% completion percentage over expected ranks just 19th among qualified QBs — but far more blame should be shed at the lackluster supporting cast and league-worst defense in EPA allowed per play.

For now, Herbert, Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler remain the only fantasy options to really trust — especially ahead of this week’s trip to a potentially cold and rainy Foxborough.

8. Who exactly can we trust in this Kyler Murray-led Cardinals offense?

Sadly not James Conner at the moment, as the veteran bell-cow RB played just 39% of the offense’s snaps last week inside of a newfound three-back committee with Emari Demercado and Michael Carter. The reserves certainly got far more work in the fourth quarter of the Cardinals’ blowout loss to the Rams (especially Carters), but Conner still posted a relatively meh 59% snap rate in the first 45 minutes of action.

This is problematic because Conner has largely gotten by on nothing other than sweet, sweet volume during his time as rock-solid fantasy RB2 in Arizona. Taking away the assurance of 15-plus touches per week is no bueno for the 28-year-old back, especially with the Cardinals not exactly firing on all cylinders on their way to scoring 25, 16 and 14 points in Murray’s first three starts of the season.

It’s early, but Murray has objectively been one of the league’s worst passers through 180 minutes of action:

• EPA per dropback: -0.08 (No. 32 among 41 qualified QBs)
• Completion percentage over expected: -5.9% (No. 36)
• PFF pass grade: 59.7 (No. 28)
• Passer rating: 79.9 (No. 30)
• Yards per attempt: 6.7 (No. 25)

Some context: Murray’s accuracy numbers are in part so low because he boasts a top-five average target depth at 9.5 yards. This also isn’t giving any credit to the former No. 1 overall pick’s ever-lethal rushing ability (14-86-3 this season).

Still, this lack of efficiency through the air makes matters complicated with Murray insisting on keeping four pass-game options fairly involved. This is hardly the Hollywood show at the moment:

Targets with Murray under center in Weeks 10 to 12:

• Trey Mcbride (25 targets)
• Marquise Brown (19)
• Greg Dortch (16)
• Rondale Moore (14)

Hell, Dortch and Michael Wilson (five in one game) have actually combined to out-target in what was thought to be the offense’s No. 4 spot.

Up next is a road trip to Pittsburgh to face off against T.J. Watt and company. Good luck to PFF’s 28th-ranked offensive line, but Vegas doesn’t seem too confident in this group: Arizona is implied to score just 17.75 points — tied for the fourth-lowest mark on the week in front of only the Jets, Panthers and Bengals.

Kyler remains a solid low-end QB1, but nobody else other than McBride needs to be in fantasy lineups. I’d like to think Brown will get going sooner rather than later, but the second-team all-unrealized-air-yards WR simply isn’t getting much help out there: Brown has received the position’s fourth-lowest rate of catchable targets (65.5%) among 57 WRs with at least 50 targets this season.

9. Could Joe Flacco under center actually help Amari Cooper and David Njoku?

Sadly, maybe? The 38-year-old veteran was last seen … kind of putting up decent numbers with the Jets in the beginning of 2022?

• Week 1: 309 pass yards-1 TD-1 INT
• Week 2: 307-4-0 (!)
• Week 3: 285-0-2

Yes, there was also a Week 18 stinker (149-0-0) in there, but clearly Flacco was still capable of putting up some yardage through the air — even if plenty came down on the scoreboard (he averaged 52 pass attempts per game in Weeks 1 to 3).

So yes, Flacco could actually help things — because the bar literally could not be lower. Whether it be Deshaun Watson, Dorian Thompson-Robinson (concussion) or P.J. Walker: Cleveland has offered arguably the single-worst passing environment for its pass-catchers in fantasy land this season.

Browns team passing marks

• PFF pass grade: 46.5 (32nd)
• Yards per attempt: 5.7 (31st)
• Adjusted completion rate: 67.8% (32nd)
• Passer rating: 66.0 (32nd)

Overall, no offense has had a lower rate of catchable passes than the Browns (71%) this season. Not great!

Check out the late Friday edition of The Fantasy Life Podcast for an injury update on Cooper (ribs) and the rest of the week’s banged-up fantasy assets — but it’s possible that the likes of Coop, David Njoku and maybe even Flacco’s former teammate Elijah Moore get going just a bit in upcoming matchups against beatable secondaries in the Rams, Jaguars and Bears.

Don’t get it twisted: None of these pass-catchers deserve must-start treatment by any stretch of the imagination, but I’ve heard worse ideas than targeting them in DFS formats as likely low-owned and low-cost options.

10. What are three bold predictions for Week 13?

Every week I put together matchup-specific charts to help determine the week’s biggest advantages by combining offensive and defensive rates in explosive plays, pressure, yards before contact, passing yards per dropback and EPA. This provides singular metrics to help quantity advantages on both sides of the ball instead of always having to go, “Offense ranks x, defense ranks y.”

The following three players might have a red flag or two in their Week 12 projection — that’s why they aren’t ranked as sure-thing top-12 options at their position — but I believe there’s enough of an edge in the matchup to warrant enhanced optimism.

Credit to us (me) for calling out the potential for Zay Flowers and Michael Pittman to boom in this section last week. Please ignore my incorrect assertion that Jerome Ford would become the latest RB to torch the Broncos. Thank you.

1. Devin Singletary keeps on keeping on, clears 100 rushing yards and scores twice. There’s an aforementioned possibility that Singletary’s high-end usage in Week 12 was more so because he’s the primary pass-down back and the offense wanted to attack the Jaguars’ secondary. That said: He might not even need excess volume to take advantage of the Broncos’ shoddy run defense — this Texans offensive line has the second-best matchup of Week 13 when it comes to combined rush yards before contact per carry.

2. Isiah Pacheco rips off multiple big plays, clears 150 total yards and scores a TD on Sunday night football. The Chiefs boast the slate’s third-best mark in combined explosive run play rate. It’s going to be cold and potentially rainy at Lambeau Field come Sunday evening — what better way to alleviate some pressure off the team’s up-and-down passing game to further embrace the man who runs like the ground has taken everything he’s ever worked for? Throw in the potential continued absence of Jerick McKinnon (groin), and it’d hardly be surprising if Pacheco makes the most out of a touch total starting with the number two. 

3. The 49ers exact their revenge, beating the Eagles by 10-plus points. Brock Purdy and company carry the week’s second-largest advantage against the opponent in combined EPA per play, while their expected explosive success through the air on the ground is far superior to what is expected out of Philly. While Philly has played back-to-back-to-back high-profile emotional games against the Cowboys, Chiefs and Bills, the 49ers have comfortably blown out the Jaguars, Bucs and Seahawks in consecutive weeks and have gotten extra rest after playing on Thanksgiving last week. San Fran looks like the better overall team when fully healthy — which they are for the most part at the moment.

Other Week 13 Notes

• Derrick Henry had a familiar two-TD boom game last week and now has an NFL-high 198 targets and carries without a drop or fumble this season. And here’s the cool part: The Big Dog might just be getting started.
  • September: 3.9 career yards per carry
  • October: 4.6
  • November: 4.9
  • December and January: 5.5
     
• Put your hand up if you have overly enjoyed drafting any Atlanta Falcon in fantasy football this year. Immediate family of Jonnu Smith please put your hands down. See? Nobody. This offense as a whole is highlighted in my five biggest things that fantasy managers got wrong in 2023 column.
   
• Passer rating isn’t a great stat for QBs because it more so encompasses the success or failure of an entire passing game. However, this understanding makes one cumulative statistic that weights TDs and INTs a bit cooler as long as we aren’t being dick heads about it.
   
• The 10 worst passing offenses by team passer rating over the past 10 years include two units operating in the year 2023:
  • 2017 Browns (61.4)
  • 2018 Bills (62.6)
  • 2023 Browns (66.0)
  • 2016 Jets (67.6)
  • 2021 Panthers (68.5)
  • 2018 Cardinals (69.0)
  • 2016 Rams (69.5)
  • 2021 Giants (70.1)
  • 2023 Jets (71.2)
  • 2014 Jaguars (72.0)
     
• Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are the RB7 and RB8 in PPR points per game this season. Maintaining this production would make them the first pair of teammates to finish inside fantasy’s top-12 backs in a single season since 2017 Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. Pretty, pretty, pretty good.
   
• Weekly reminder that full-PPR scoring is stupid.
   
• Contested catches are tough to make, you know, because they are contested and all. This reality means that some “contested-catch artists” are probably a bit more prone to extreme volatility than we give them credit for. Look no further than Christian Watson and George Pickens, who have gone from two of the very best … to two of the worst in terms of their percentage of contested targets caught this season:
  • 2022: Watson (75% - tied for 1st), Pickens (68% - 3rd)
  • 2023: Watson (31% - 8th-worst), Pickens (27% - 6th-worst)
     
• You know who is fun to watch for better and for worse? Sam Howell, who is the NFL’s only QB with 20-plus big-time throws *and* 20-plus turnover-worthy plays this season (PFF). ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED? Side note: Have we ever seen Howell and Jameis Winston in the same room at the same time?
   
• Evan Engram has an NFL-high 82 targets without a TD this season. He was so close last week; don’t be surprised if the good times get rolling a bit more on Monday night against a Bengals secondary that looked lost trying to cover Pat Freiermuth (9-120-0) last week.
   
• It’s almost December and Jerry Jeudy’s two most memorable moments of the season are:
  • Steve Smith Sr. going viral for absolutely going off on Jeudy during a pregame rant that peaked with Agent 89 calling the former first-round pick “just a guy.”
  • Jeudy doing the always lethal QB scramble move of pump-faking while already downfield even though he had just caught a forward pass. It was awesome.
     
• Maybe Jeudy finds a way to replicate his 2022 end-of-season goodness — he does have a winnable enough final stretch of matchups against the Texans, Chargers (x2), Lions and Patriots — but that would almost just drive the knife even deeper into fantasy managers considering he’s impossible to trust as anything more than a low-ceiling FLEX at the moment.
   
• This throw last week by Tommy Devito was truly 🤌.
   
• Rhamondre Stevenson has racked up 100-plus total yards in three straight games after failing to reach that even once in Weeks 1 to 8. This has come with a bump in usage — he’s back on the RB1 borderline and essentially the only fantasy-viable option in the entire Patriots offense at the moment.

• Real question: Would you be THAT surprised if Tyreek Hill goes for 300-plus yards against the Commanders’ terrible and man-heavy secondary? The one that literally just fired their defensive coordinator a week ago? The one that made Tommy DeVito look like a capable NFL QB? Get your popcorn ready, Dolphins fans.
   
• Adam Thielen’s 1-2-0 performance against the Titans’ pass-funnel defense was a reminder of just how low the floor is for everyone involved in this Bryce Young-led offensive “attack.” How exactly did Andy Dalton throw for 361 yards and 2 TDs in his lone start of the season?
   
• Mike Evans … DOG.

• Shoutout to Jordan Love and the Packers for putting their best foot forward in recent weeks. And the best news? Smart real-life football people believe it’s sustainable.
   
• Cordarrelle Patterson is averaging more all-purpose yards per touch (7.6) than Bijan Robinson (5.5). Yes, I included return yardage. Also yes, it’s my article, I can do whatever I want. To an extent, you know?
   
• The Broncos have ripped off five straight wins, so assuredly their offense and defense must both be operating at peak levels entering December. Right? RIGHT? Not right:
  • Broncos offense EPA per play Weeks 1-6: -0.079 (20th)
  • Weeks 7-12: -0.067 (19th)
  • Broncos defense EPA per play allowed Weeks 1-6: +0.156 (32nd)
  • Weeks 7-12: -0.144 (4th)
     
• Much was made in the preseason about Travis Etienne’s ability to flourish as a highly efficient big-play demon inside this ascending Jaguars offense. Style points don’t matter in fantasy land — ETN managers should remain thrilled that they nabbed the RB6 in PPR points per game in the fourth round — but it’s surprising to see the third-year RB average just 3.7 yards per carry, the sixth-lowest mark among all backs with 100-plus carries this season. However, this dropoff in efficiency can be far more attributed to the offensive line struggling to get the same sort of push this time around:
  • 2022: 1.9 (4th)
  • 2023: 0.8 (29th)
     
• ETN’s average of 5.1 yards per carry still clears his mark of 4.8 this season if you apply the difference in yards before contact, but it’s certainly less of a dropoff. Let this be your daily reminder that more goes into raw yards per carry averages than individual RB performance.
   
• Puka Nacua: Confirmed good at football. Fantasy Life director of analytics Dwain McFarland broke down exactly how fantasy managers should be treating Nacua and Cooper Kupp moving forward; just please don’t confuse a few injury-induced duds (to Kupp and Matthew Stafford) as big-time evidence that either receiver is anything other than great.
   
• One day historians will look back on Gabe Davis’ 2023 season and confirm that it was the most Gabe Davis season in the history of the world.
   
• Jalen Hurts leads the NFL in rushing TDs since 2021 with 34. No other player has even reached 30. 
   
• LSU WR Malik Nabers is shaping up to be the 2024 NFL Draft’s WR2 behind only Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr. Early front-runner for best-related fantasy football team name: Nabers think I’m sellin’ dope.” You’re welcome.

I love football, man. Best of luck in Week 13 and beyond!