Sixteen weeks of blood, sweat and tears have brought you to this very moment. One measly week of games stands between you and fantasy football championship glory … and accordingly your overall happiness and mental health.

As Bruce Buffer would say: It’s time.

What follows are my 10 biggest questions ahead of Week 17 to accomplish that very goal and a bunch of other stuff that I found cool for one reason or another.

As always: It’s a great day to be great.

1. What are the biggest mismatches in this Cowboys-Lions shootout?

Each team boasts an objectively great all-around offense in terms of EPA (expected points added) per play:

  • EPA per play: Cowboys (+0.088, No. 4), Lions (+0.086, No. 5)
  • EPA per run play: Cowboys (-0.050, No. 11), Lions (+0.052, No. 1)
  • EPA per pass play: Cowboys (+0.176, No. 3), Lions (+0.112, No. 5)

However, the defensive side of the ball shows that there is really only one true weak link on either side of the football in this game:

  • EPA allowed per play: Cowboys (-0.108, No. 5), Lions (-0.004, No. 22)
  • EPA allowed per run play: Cowboys (-0.111, No. 9), Lions (-0.112, No. 8)
  • EPA allowed per pass play: Cowboys (-0.106, No. 7), Lions (+0.059, No. 26)

Both teams are truly top-12 units in everything … except for the Lions’ pass defense. The imminent return of S C.J. Gardner-Johnson (pec, out) will help, but not this week.

There isn’t too much to sweat here from a fantasy perspective: All of the key parties involved are recommended starts in a matchup featuring a week-high 53.5-point game total.

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2. Can Lamar Jackson (again) do his best Superman impression vs. the Dolphins?

Monday night’s electric primetime performance was certainly a good warmup. The league’s new frontrunner for MVP, Jackson has spearheaded the game’s fourth-ranked scoring offense all season long with his patented blend of elite athleticism and arm talent.

Seriously: What the f*ck is a defense supposed to do about this?

Jackson (20.1) joins Josh Allen (24.2), Jalen Hurts (23.3) and Dak Prescott (20.3) as the NFL’s only four QBs averaging north of 20 fantasy points per game this season. He remains one-of-one in the rushing department, while the loss of Mark Andrews (ankle, IR) hasn’t slowed down this new-and-improved Todd Monken-led passing attack.

Just one problem: This Dolphins defense has turned out to be good. Like, really good. Like, the best defense in the league since getting stud CB Jalen Ramsey back in Week 8 good:

  • EPA allowed per play: -0.181 (No. 1)
  • Scoring drive allowed percentage: 22.5% (No. 1)
  • Yards allowed per play: 4.4 (No. 2)
  • Yards allowed per pass: 6.1 (No. 5)
  • Yards allowed per rush: 3.5 (No. 3)
  • Success rate allowed: 29.8% (No. 5)

The schedule during this stretch has certainly helped matters, but kudos to the Dolphins for rising to the occasion in their two tough matchups vs. the Chiefs (14 points, 267 total yards allowed) and most recently the Cowboys (20, 339).

You don’t need more than a few fingers to count the number of QBs who should be starting ahead of Jackson this week; just realize *both* defenses are quite a bit better than they were last season … when these offenses combined for 80 points and 1,020 total yards. This doesn’t mean getting that popcorn ready is a bad idea, but perhaps consider reigning in shootout expectations just a tad in a matchup featuring a game total of “just” 47 points.

3. Should pretty much everyone in Tampa Bay be started with confidence?

Yup! Mike Evans (WR8 in PPR points per game) and Rachaad White (RB7) are self-explanatory starts at this point, but the other guys (underrated movie) are also starting to come on STRONG:

  • Baker Mayfield: Has ripped off QB12, QB2 and QB 13 finishes over the past three weeks, accounting for nine total TDs and *zero* INTs along the way.
  • Chris Godwin: Target totals of 11, 12 and 11 have helped produce sterling 5-53-0, 10-155-0 and 6-78-0 receiving lines — if only the longtime stud receiver had a bit more success finding the end zone (two TDs this season).

Mayfield is now tied as the league’s fifth-best QB in EPA per dropback (+0.13) alongside Jalen Hurts and Jordan Love. His 26 passing TDs are tied with Tua Tagovailoao and Patrick Mahomes for the sixth-highest mark in the league. The Bucs are tied with the Ravens (93) for the most points scored over the past three weeks.

Up next is a home matchup against a Saints defense that will once again be without stud CB Marshon Lattimore (ankle, IR). They have been lit up by the Falcons (24 points allowed), Lions (33) and Rams (30) since their Week 11 bye, only proving capable of dominating against the lowly Panthers (6) and Giants (6) — both in the Superdome.

Ultimately, Baker is a legit borderline QB1 this week and someone I would start ahead of guys like Russell Wilson, Derek Carr and Jordan Love among others. Godwin is also deserving of the nod in close start/sit decisions involving borderline WR2s like George Pickens, Terry McLaurin and Tyler Lockett among others.

Buccaneers’ country: Let’s bake!

4. Is it time to bench Stefon Diggs in Fantasy Land?

No.

The veteran receiver still very much looks like his usual explosive self; the problem centers around the reality that this offense has either faced a very tough matchup OR completely abandoned the passing game since switching to new OC Joe Brady.

Bills Play Style

Pure opportunity doesn’t earn fantasy points in the year 2023 (thanks, Biden), but Diggs has remained the overwhelming leader of the clubhouse over these past five games: Nobody on the Bills has come close to the 30-year-old’s 29.7% target share.

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Dec 23, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Buffalo Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs (14) carries the ball against the Los Angeles Chargers in the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Up next is a Bill Belichick-led defense that famously is the only group in the league that game-plans to take away the opposing offense’s No. 1 option. This “fact” makes it curious that Diggs has ripped off 6-58-1, 7-104-1, 7-92-1 and 7-85-1 performances in his last four regular-season meetings with this group. Hmm.

Don’t let yesterday’s painful fantasy performance overly dictate what we should expect in today’s start/sit decision: Diggs remains a top-15 option at the position and recommended start thanks to the reality that he’s very good at football and the clear-cut No. 1 pass-game option inside this USUALLY prolific Josh Allen-led attack.

5. Will Tee Higgins overcome this tough matchup vs. the Chiefs?

It won’t be easy! The Chiefs have made life TOUGH on opposing No. 1 WRs since returning from their Week 10 bye:

Kudos to Watson for being the outlier during this admittedly arbitrary timeframe; just realize the Chiefs’ standing as the league’s fourth-best defense in PPR points per game allowed to the position has been on display recently — this will NOT be an easy matchup for Jake Browning and company to overcome.

That said: Higgins has been pretty close to a sure thing with Ja’Marr Chase sidelined over the past two seasons:

  • Week 8, 2022: 3 receptions-49 yards-1 TD (6 targets)
  • Week 9, 2022: 7-60-0 (8)
  • Week 11, 2022: 9-148-0 (13)
  • Week 12, 2022: 7-114-1 (9)
  • Week 15, 2023 (Chase left early): 4-61-2 (8)
  • Week 16, 2023: 5-140-1 (8)

While Browning fell back to Earth a bit in Week 16, his 42 pass attempts reflect the reality that this offense is more than fine airing the ball out even in the absence of Joe Burrow (wrist, IR).

Ultimately, Higgins cracks my top-20 options at the position ahead of guys like DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley, Garrett Wilson and Courtland Sutton among others — it’s tough to overly sweat a rough matchup with a player of his talent expected to see double-digit targets in a competent-enough passing game.

6. Are we buying some of last week’s blowup performances?

To name a few:

  • Steelers WR George Pickens (4-195-2) snapped his seven-game scoreless streak in style … thanks in large part to a career-best performance from Mason Rudolph. The production also came on a mere six targets; Pickens remains a boom-or-bust WR3 ahead of a matchup with a Seahawks defense that has allowed just 268 total passing yards over the last two weeks.
  • Panthers WR D.J. Chark (6-98-2) snapped his streak of five straight games with under 60 scoreless yards, although it came against a Packers defense that has surrendered 851 yards and seven TDs without a single INT to Bryce Young, Baker Mayfield and Tommy DeVito over the last three weeks of action. He’s a meh WR4 option this week alongside guys like Michael Wilson and Joshua Palmer.
  • Bears RB Khalil Herbert (20-112-1) dominated usage with D’Onta Foreman (personal) sidelined; this continues to look far more like a “hot hand” approach than true sign of more consistent things to come.
  • Rams WR Demarcus Robinson (6-82-1) has seized the full-time No. 3 WR role even with Tutu Atwell back from injury. He’s ripped off four top-24 finishes in as many weeks and is on the WR3 borderline ahead of a more than winnable matchup with the Giants’ 27th-ranked defense in PPR points per game allowed to opposing WRs.
  • Bills WR Gabe Davis (4-130-1) has goose-egged in four of his last seven games, but hey these are the type of outcomes that occasionally can come to fruition with Josh f*cking Allen at QB. Don’t expect an encore against a Patriots defense that has never allowed more than 41 receiving yards to Davis in eight career meetings.
  • Raiders RB Zamir White (22-145-0) has handled robust snap rates north of 70% in back-to-back games with Josh Jacobs (quad/illness) sidelined. White will (again) be a volume-based RB2 in Week 17 if Jacobs is once again unable to suit up against the Colts’ 30th-ranked defense in PPR points per game allowed to opposing RBs.
  • Vikings WR K.J. Osborn (5-95-1) made the most out of a game that featured both T.J. Hockenson (knee, IR) and Jordan Addison (ankle) sidelined for more than half of the game. He’ll be no better than a dicey WR4 option even without Addison due to the Vikings’ general uncertainty under center at the moment.

In short: Meh.

7. Who is to blame for the Broncos’ middling offense?

Well, according to head coach Sean Payton the answer would be simple: Russell Wilson, who was benched for Jarrett Stidham ahead of the team’s Week 17 matchup against the Chargers.

While Russ hasn’t been GREAT this year, it’s also tough to be overly critical of “Mr. Unlimited” when looking at some of his advanced passing metrics:

  • EPA per dropback: +0.01 (No. 19 among 31 qualified QBs)
  • Completion percentage over expected: +4.8% (No. 9)
  • PFF pass grade: 72.5 (No. 19)
  • Passer rating: 98.0 (No. 7)
  • Yards per attempt: 6.9 (No. 20)

Of course, the ole numbers don’t always tell the whole story. Payton previously mentioned how Russ had missed multiple big-play opportunities to Jerry Jeudy, and Week 16’s disappointing win over the Patriots demonstrated more of the same. Even if Wilson’s 2023 campaign has been an improvement from what the world saw in 2022: It’s still not anywhere close to good enough to justify his five-year, $245 million contract.

The biggest culprit is probably the group of attached pass-catchers. While Courtland Sutton (58-770-10) has largely made the most out of his opportunities all season long, Jerry Jeudy’s most memorable moment of the season was being called a JAG by Steve Smith and Marvin Mims hasn’t found a way to consistently work ahead of guys like Brandon Johnson and Lil’Jordan Humphrey for one reason or another.

This isn’t to suggest Russ deserves no blame: PFF believes the Broncos boast the league’s seventh-best offensive line, and advanced analytics paint Payton’s playcalling performance as no worse than below average. Rather, the league’s 21st- and 16th-ranked offense in EPA per play and points per game simply hasn’t met expectations despite carrying the fifth-highest price tag of any group in the league.

Ultimately, what should have been a smash spot against the Chargers’ 26th-ranked scoring defense suddenly turns into a matchup that largely features … no overly fantasy-relevant options. Sutton will be his usual TD-dependent WR3 self if he manages to clear the protocol by Sunday, but otherwise: meh. Even Javonte Williams is a risky FLEX play after his utilization (particularly as a pass-catcher) fell off a cliff in Week 17.

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I’ll be answering the heavy majority of close start/sit questions featuring a Broncos player with the other guy.

8. Are the best days of Travis Kelce in the rear-view mirror?

Currently in the midst of his least-productive four-game fantasy stretch since 2018, Kelce hasn't scored since Week 11 and hasn’t cleared 100 yards since Week 7.

So, what’s the problem? Being 34 years old hasn’t helped, nor have early-season knee and ankle injuries that have seemingly sapped at least some of Kelce’s patented YAC ability. Overall, Kelce is averaging career-worst marks in yards per reception (10.8) and yards per target (8.3) alike despite being the clear-cut No. 1 pass-game option in a Patrick Mahomes-led offense.

The corresponding fantasy results surprisingly haven’t been THAT bad, as Kelce remains the TE1 in PPR points per game (15.3) and has scored more total PPR points than anyone at the position other than T.J. Hockenson. Of course, six performances with under 15 PPR points in his last seven games have a way of making fantasy managers not exactly overly remember the good times.

Good news: This week’s get-right spot features a Bengals defense that has allowed the second-most PPR points per game to the position, notably getting flamed by guys like:

Don’t be surprised if Kelce’s numbers more closely resemble his last performance vs. this defense in the 2022 AFC Championship (7-78-1) compared to what we’ve seen out of the four-time All-Pro talent in recent weeks.

9. Is Christian McCaffrey the fantasy football MVP?

The case for CMC is that he’s racked up an NFL-high 378.2 PPR points — 36.6 more than any skill-position player.

Additionally, the gap between McCaffrey and the next-best RB is wider than any other position:

Fantasy points between No. 1 and No. 2 highest-scoring player

  • QB: 11.4
  • RB: 110.5
  • WR: 60.2
  • TE: 4.2

Somehow, McCaffrey’s worst performance all season was as the RB17. He’s finished inside the position’s top-8 producers in all but three weeks! On pace to become the game’s 14th player with 2,000-plus total yards and 20 TD in a season, the NFL’s all-time leader in PPR points per game regardless of position certainly qualifies as a viable fantasy (and real-life) MVP pick.

However, the keyword that usually gets thrown around in these sorts of MVP debates is value, and it’s tough to overly praise a consensus top-three fantasy selection for accordingly putting up elite numbers.

Enter: Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert, who has scored 21 TDs (!) during his breathtaking 2023 campaign. Just the RB41 (pick 130) in terms of final average draft position (ADP), the Dolphins’ bell-cow RB was going in the same range of drafts as guys like Jerick McKinnon, Rashaad Penny and Elijah Mitchell.

While Mostert doesn’t have the raw numbers of McCaffrey (RB4 in PPR points per game also behind Kyren Williams and Alvin Kamara, the production RELATIVE to his ADP is tough to ignore.

Player of the year? McCaffrey. Value of the year? Mostert. Cool? Cool.

10. What are three bold predictions for Week 17?

Every week I put together matchup-specific charts to help determine the week’s biggest mismatches by combining offensive and defensive rates in explosive plays, pressure, yards before contact, passing yards per dropback and EPA. This provides singular metrics to help quantity advantages on both sides of the ball instead of always having to go, “Offense ranks x, defense ranks y.”

The following three players might have a red flag or two in their Week 17 projection — that’s why they aren’t ranked as sure-thing top-12 options at their position — but I believe there’s enough of an edge in the matchup to warrant enhanced optimism.

Credit to us (me) for calling out the potential for D’Andre Swift to boom last weekend. Please ignore my incorrect assertions that Drake London would boom and that the 49ers would “dog walk” the Ravens. Thank you.

1. Clyde Edwards-Helaire booms to the tune of 125-plus total yards and two TDs. Both Jerick McKinnon (groin, IR) and Isiah Pacheco (concussion) should be out of the picture, setting up CEH to assume an every-down workload against the league’s second-worst defense in rushing yards before contact allowed per carry. The Chiefs are implied to score 25.5 points (fifth-highest mark of Week 17) despite their recent struggles; fire up CEH as a legit upside RB2 with the potential for much more.

2. Calvin Ridley stays hot and posts an 8-132-2 receiving line vs. the Panthers. It’d certainly be a lot cooler if Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) is healthy enough to go, but even if it’s CJ Beathard: The Jaguars are expected to enjoy the week’s second-best advantage in combined pressure rate. This sort of plus matchup in the trenches should allow whoever is under center to enjoy more clean pockets than usual — which is a tough proposition against a man who has 7-103-2, 5-89-1 and 6-90-2 receiving lines to his name over the last six weeks of action.

3. Patrick Mahomes and company finally get going, he throws for 355 yards and four TDs. More Chiefs propaganda ahead of a matchup with a Bengals defense that is fresh off allowing 34 points and 368 total yards to Mason Rudolph and the Steelers for crying out loud. Don’t let last week’s disappointment distract from the fact that Mahomes is very much still the same man currently averaging the most fantasy points per game … of any QB in NFL history.

Other Week 17 Notes

  • Bengals QBs are currently demonstrating the duality of men: Joe Burrow wants to see some f*cking aliens, while Jake Browning is simply concerned with what’s going on here on Earth. Either way: Have fun dealing with the Chiefs’ third-ranked defense in EPA allowed per pass!
     
  • It looks like Texans QB C.J. Stroud (concussion) will make his triumphant return ahead of Sunday’s potential smash spot against the Titans. Reminder: This has been a pass-funnel defense worth attacking in recent years — and they are HURT, dog. Stroud — the QB8 in fantasy points per game this season — is a recommended start alongside Nico Collins (Fantasy Life’s WR17) and even Noah Brown (WR35).
     
  • Titans RB Derrick Henry’s last six games vs. the Texans:
    • 32 carries-211 yards-3 TD
    • 22-212-2
    • 34-250-2
    • 32-219-2
    • 23-126-1
    • 16-9-0
       
  • Obviously, the latter line that occurred two weeks ago wasn’t ideal; just realize this is still King Henry we’re talking about here. Fresh off 99 total yards and a TD: Fire up the Big Dog as an upside RB2 against a Texans defense that could again be without No. 3 overall pick DE Will Anderson Jr. (ankle) as well as DT Maliek Collins (hip) and DE Jonathan Greenard (ankle).
     
  • Speaking of Titans who sadly put forward a dud in this matchup two weeks ago: DeAndre Hopkins is coming off 2-21-0 and 2-20-0 performances over the last two weeks and has yet to catch a TD from Ryan Tannehill this season. Not ideal, but then again: The artist known as Nuk remains the unquestioned No. 1 target and at least proved capable of getting wide open deep against this group.
     
  • Wondering how Taylor Heinicke and Desmond Ridder stack up against each other this season? Let’s find out!
    • EPA per dropback: Heinicke (+0.10, No. 12), Ridder (-0.06, No. 31)
    • Completion percentage over expected: Heinicke (-3.9%, No. 41), Ridder (-1.8%, No. 30)
    • PFF pass grade: Heinicke (62.7, No. 30), Ridder (52.1, No. 40)
    • Passer rating: Heinicke (88.8, No. 22), Ridder (72.0, No. 30)
    • Yards per attempt: Heinicke (6.8, No. 25), Ridder (7.1, No. 18)
       
  • Most metrics seem to point toward Heinicke being the slightly superior passer this season; just realize neither would be what most would describe as, you know, good. Remember when the Falcons didn’t even call the Ravens to inquire about Lamar Jackson earlier this year? Good times!
     
  • Bears RB Khalil Herbert turned in a PPR RB10 performance last week with D’Onta Foreman (personal) sidelined. Good times … but the only consistency with this backfield during games with all three of their top RBs healthy has been the general inconsistency involved in their usage.

Bears RB Usage

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  • Cardinals QB Kyler Murray returned to action in Week 10. His top-five targets in six games since then:
  • McBride has ripped off PPR TE2, TE12, TE7, TE3, TE3 and TE19 finishes during this span — he’s the consensus Fantasy Life TE3 ahead of a winnable matchup against the Eagles’ 22nd-ranked secondary in EPA allowed per pass play.
     
  • The Eagles have played 12 games with starting TE Dallas Goedert healthy enough to play his usual allotment of snaps this season. Jalen Hurts’ top-five targets during these games:
  • Smith has been the one getting squeezed out, which is unfortunate given his obviously incredible talents. Ultimately, AJB is the only pass-catcher who absolutely needs to be in lineups of all shapes and sizes, while Swift in particular is also a recommended start against the Cardinals’ league-worst defense in PPR points per game allowed to opposing RBs.
     
  • Speaking of RBs who fantasy managers should feel good about starting this week: Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard has totaled 17, 24, 25, 25 and 19 touches in his last five outings, posting five consecutive top-24 PPR performances along the way. The Josh Allen-led Jaguars front-seven hardly represents a smash spot; just realize this sort of volume is a solid tiebreaker in close start/sit decisions in fantasy land.
     
  • The status of Raiders RB Josh Jacobs (quad) doesn’t look great after back-to-back DNPs to start the week. His continued absence would once again elevate Zamir White to recommended start status after turning a combined 42 touches into 230 total yards and one TD over the past two weeks of action. Whoever winds up starting at RB will be my answer to more start/sit questions than not ahead of Sunday’s smash spot against the Colts’ 30th-ranked defense in PPR points per game allowed to opposing RBs.
     
  • Yes, Colts RB Jonathan Taylor’s 43 yards and one TD weren’t exactly what fantasy managers had in mind ahead of their critical Week 16 playoff matchup. Also yes, he handled 82% of the backfield’s touches, 60% of the snaps and 41% of the routes. That’s borderline RB1-level usage that *should* provide better results down the road. I hope. JT is Fantasy Life’s consensus RB8 ahead of Sunday’s winnable matchup against Maxx Crosby and the Raiders.
     
  • Breakout rookie Rams WR Puka Nacua needs just 128 more receiving yards to break Ja’Marr Chase’s rookie record (1,455). Not too shabby for a fifth-round pick who totaled 1,749 receiving yards during his four collegiate seasons at Washington and BYU. Get your popcorn ready for Sunday’s matchup against the Giants’ 27th-ranked defense in PPR points per game allowed to the position.
     
  • Commanders QB Jacoby Brissett has led five TD drives on *checks notes* five full drives this season. Does it make a ton of sense to bench 23-year-old signal-caller Sam Howell during a lost season in favor of a relative journeyman in Brissett who is set to be an unrestricted free agent this offseason? Maybe not, but it does present a nice one-week upgrade for Terry McLaurin and company ahead of their ROUGH matchup with the 49ers’ third-ranked scoring defense.
     
  • Friendly reminder that TyRod Taylor was dropping some DIMES downfield before missing time with an injury.

Thanks for reading and good luck in the championship!

Week 17 Fantasy Qs