Fantasy Questions Week 2. Key Questions For Every Team.

Week 1 was great and all, but you know what has the potential to be even cooler?

Week 2, baby.

Today’s goal: Break down Week 2 by asking — and attempting to answer — the most meaningful fantasy-related questions possible.

And maybe even have some fun too. Because, you know, why not?

Questions are ordered chronologically by game. Check out the Fantasy Life Game Hub for updated spreads and totals throughout the week. Fantasy Life’s team of expert rankers also have you covered (for free!) if you’re into that kind of thing.

As always: It’s a great day to be great.

Chiefs at Jaguars (KC -3, 51)

Can any of these WRs be trusted in fantasy land if Travis Kelce (knee) remains sidelined?

Not really.

Especially not Kadarius Toney. Goodness gracious that was a horrific performance last week:

1. A trick play shovel pass to Toney produced his only reception of the evening; too bad he was stopped just short of scoring at the one-yard line.
2. Patrick Mahomes looked Toney’s way on a 3rd and 6 from the 46-yard line on a short crosser… only to watch as the ball bounced directly off the hands of the ex-Giants receiver and into the lap of Lions DB Brian Branch, who managed to take the gift all the way to the house.
3. Another big third down (to be fair, all third downs are big third downs), another incomplete pass off Toney’s hands. This one was a bit more defensible given that Richie James crossed directly in front of his teammate right before the ball arrived.
4. Last but not least: Mahomes lofted what should have been an easy 15-plus yard completion to wide-open Toney in the middle of the field… dropped. Sheesh.

Ultimately, Marquez Valdes-Scantling (73% route rate) and Skyy Moore (64%) were the offense’s only two WRs to run a route on more than 40% of Patrick Mahomes’ dropbacks. The former is perennially tough to trust due to his boom-or-bust way of life, while the latter is still looking for his first reception of the season despite Week 1’s decent enough underlying usage.

Nobody other than Mahomes and Kelce (if active) deserves to be locked into starting fantasy lineups this week despite the potential shootout on the horizon against the Jaguars.

Feel free to hold on to some of these WRs as lottery tickets; just realize most lottery tickets don’t wind up working out.

Is Travis Etienne suddenly a weekly top-eight option at the RB position?

It’s looking that way!

While ETN was out-snapped by JaMycal Hasty of all people the last time these two teams matched up in the AFC Divisional Round, Hasty was a healthy scratch in Week 1, paving the way for the former 2021 first-round pick to post some borderline erotic utilization numbers:

• Snap rate: 80% (No. 3 highest mark among all RBs in Week 1)
• Route rate: 83% (No. 1)

Tank Bigsby did vulture a goal-line TD, but there’s more than enough meat on the bone for ETN to eat in a major way this season should the backfield remain condensed around just two parties.

Aug 23, 2021; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) hands the ball off to running back Travis Etienne Jr. (1) against the New Orleans Saints during the first half at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

The Jaguars only fed Etienne 14 and 13 touches in two games against the Chiefs last season, but the continued absence of Hasty *should* lead to a far more consistently weekly floor for the undisputed lead back of this ascending Jacksonville offense.

Raiders at Bills (BUF -9.5, 47)

Does Jimmy Garoppolo not get enough credit for being pretty damn good?

While Jimmy G doesn’t earn a lot of style points, he continues to gain more yards per pass attempt than most QBs out there — which is kind of the whole point at the end of the day.

Yards per attempt isn’t a perfect QB stat; just realize the former Patriots and 49ers signal-caller has ranked near the top of the leaderboard in all eight of his professional seasons in which he registered at least one start:

• 2023: 7.7 yards per attempt (No. 6 among qualified QBs)
• 2022: 7.9 (No. 4)
• 2021: 8.6 (No. 2)
• 2020: 7.8 (No. 9)
• 2019: 8.4 (No. 3)
• 2018: 8.1 (No. 11)
• 2017: 8.8 (No. 1)
• 2016: 8.8 (No. 2)

Obviously, playcalling and an abundance of high-quality pass-game weapons over the years have helped; just realize we really haven’t ever seen Garoppolo do anything other than lead an efficient passing game.

Don’t expect too many extra fireworks this week against a Bills defense that was one of just eight units to allow fewer than 15.5 fantasy points per game to the position in 2022, but this Raiders passing game might have a higher floor than most anticipated.

Is Josh Jacobs still being used as one of the league’s most-fed RBs?

Absolutely.

From Fantasy Life’s new (and free!) Utilization Report Tool:

Week 1's 19-48-0 rushing and 2-23-0 receiving lines didn’t exactly take fantasy managers from six to midnight, but the Raiders sure seem to remain fully committed to featuring Jacobs as one of the league’s most-fed players.

This week’s road trip against the Bills isn’t insurmountable — just ask Breece Hall — but regardless: Jacobs remains a matchup-proof RB1 thanks to his nearly unmatched combination of innate talent and immense workload.

What the hell was that, Josh Allen?

Allen channeled his younger-DGAF self on Monday night, throwing not one, not two, but three ill-advised INTs (to the same guy!) while also fumbling a snap that hit him in the chest before losing said ball again upon running into his teammate (s/o Mark Sanchez).

The two-time overall fantasy QB1 still made a few great throws and chipped in 36 scoreless yards on the ground, but even he couldn’t say much of anything nice about the performance.

Of course, this did come against Sauce Gardner and the Jets’ lethal pass defense, who are now responsible for all three of Allen’s worst performances in terms of fantasy points from purely passing production since the beginning of last season.

Don’t be surprised if Maxx Crosby makes his presence felt on at least a few occasions, but Vegas fully expects this Bills offense to rebound in a major way.

Just five offenses are currently implied to score more than 25 points based on Week 2 game totals and spreads:

1. Bills (28.25)
2. Eagles (27.75)
3. Chiefs (27.25)
4. Lions (27.25)
5. 49ers (26.25)

Look for the all-time QB2 in fantasy points per game to remind everyone just how much of a cheat code he can be when everything is clicking.

Bears at Buccaneers (TB -3, 41.5)

Will Justin Fields ever provide true upside as a passer?

Week 1 certainly wasn’t a good start to the idea that D.J. Moore could help elevate Fields to new heights, although a look at his passing chart demonstrates that this passing game wasn’t exactly looking to open things up anyway.

Overall, Fields completed just two of four passes thrown more than 10 yards downfield in Week 1. The lack of involvement from Moore combined with a ghastly effort from the 2023 NFL Draft’s No. 32 overall pick didn’t help matters; either way it’s tough to expect anything from this passing game at the moment.

Don’t get it twisted: Fields remains a locked-in recommended QB1 in Fantasy Land thanks to that sweet, sweet rushing upside.

He posted top-five fantasy numbers last year despite similarly gross passing production, but the rest of the passing game’s “options” are non-viable starts for the time being — even Moore should be treated as more of a borderline WR2 at best for now.

Does the answer to which Bears RB to trust in fantasy start with “N” and rhyme with “Bo”?

See what I did there?

But seriously: Yeah, don’t start any of these Bears RBs at the moment.

Khalil Herbert seemed to have a stranglehold on the starting job after posting dominant first-team usage in the preseason, but D’Onta Foreman and Roschon Johnson were involved enough to make this an annoying 1.A/1.B/1.C situation.

Credit to Johnson for easily flashing the most out of anyone; even then it’s just tough to trust any fantasy RB when double-digit touches are more of a pipe dream than an expected reality.

How are the early returns on the “Let’s Bake” era?

A win is a win is a win, and Baker Mayfield seemed to show some of the fire that was regularly on display during the earlier parts of his career when things, you know, weren’t always terrible.

While it’s tough to be overly enthralled with 173 passing yards and a pair of scores through the air against one of the league’s worst secondaries in the Minnesota Vikings, Mayfield did register PFF’s fifth-highest passing grade (79.9) of the week and proved capable of keeping stud WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin plenty involved.

Up next is the Bears’ reigning 32nd-ranked scoring defense, and they looked rather miserable against Jordan Love and company last week.

Don’t freak out and treat Mayfield as anything other than a borderline QB2 in fantasy land, but Evans and Godwin are once again matchup-boosted upside WR3 options who deserve the benefit of the doubt in close start/sit decisions.

Does Rachaad White deserve “F*ck it, the volume is there” starting treatment?

To an extent, although a worrying case is starting to be made that White is the NFL’s single-least efficient rusher of the football. Since the beginning of last season…

• PFF rush grade: 67.5 (No. 42 among 47 RBs with 100-plus carries)
• Yards per carry: 3.5 (tied for No. 46)
• Yards after contact per carry: 2.3 (No. 47)
• Missed tackles forced per carry: 0.1 (No. 43)

And yet, White received workhorse treatment in Week 1, handling 79% of the offense’s total snaps, 80% of the short-down-and-distance looks as well as 100% of the two-minute snaps.

Up next is a Bears defense that had next to no answer for Aaron Jones last week and allowed the second-most PPR points per game to the position in 2022.

Fire up White as a usage-based RB2 overdue for a quality performance.

Packers at Falcons (GB -1.5, 40.5)

Was Jordan Love really THAT good in Week 1?

Not really!

Don’t get it twisted: Style points don’t matter in fantasy land, and managers will take Love’s 245-3-0 passing and 3-12-0 rushing lines eight days of the week.

Funny but true: Love leads the NFL in yards per attempt (9.2) over the past two seasons… with a minimum of 50 dropbacks.

That said: Love was just PFF’s 20th-highest graded QB on the week, and he posted a bottom-three mark in adjusted completion rate (63%).

He certainly left some throws out the field that could have made his final box score even bigger.

Be careful about crowning Love too quickly following the solid, albeit not spectacular, performance against the NFL’s reigning 32nd-ranked scoring defense.

We should know a lot more about Love and this Green Bay passing attack following this week’s road trip to Atlanta.

Here’s to hoping both of the offense’s top weapons in Aaron Jones (hamstring) and Christian Watson (hamstring) are healthy enough to suit up.

Be sure to check out the Friday edition of The Fantasy Life Podcast for a full analysis on every fantasy-relevant injury ahead of Week 2.

What is Arthur Smith’s problem, man?

Winning football games is cool, but what in the hell is this quote?

Maybe getting the guy you spent the No. 8 overall pick of the 2022 NFL Draft with, you know, one catch would be cool?

The implication that London’s complete and utter lack of production is something he couldn’t care less about is tough to fathom considering inevitable second contract discussions will revolve around his numbers relative to other players at the position.

Backfield usage also wasn’t exactly what fantasy managers had in mind, as electric rookie RB Bijan Robinson wound up forming an evenly split committee alongside Tyler Allgeier.

Smith is right: Winning is the only thing that matters to the Falcons, but I’d venture to guess they aren’t going to win too many more games with just 221 total offensive yards.

A much bigger test is on the horizon this week against a Packers defense that has the sort of talent at all three levels of the defense to make life difficult on Atlanta should they remain so one-dimensional.

Seahawks at Lions (DET -5.5, 47)

Can this Seahawks offense survive without their starting offensive tackles?

It sure didn’t look like it based on their second-half performance last week.

• First half: 13 points, 10 first downs, 5.3 yards per play, +0.122 EPA per play
• Second half: 0 points, 0 first downs, 0.9 yards per play, -0.754 EPA per play

Head coach Pete Carroll said LT Charles Cross (toe) and RT Abraham Lucas (knee) are both “hurting” and it’ll be a “challenge” for them to suit up this week.

The team’s decision to sign 41-year-old OT Jason Peters off the street reflects the reality that this group will probably be dealing with backups on both ends of the line of scrimmage.

Not great ahead of a matchup with stud second-year Lions DE Aidan Hutchinson, who was one of just seven players to rack up at least seven pressures in Week 1.

Dec 4, 2022; Inglewood, California, USA; Seattle Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf (14) runs the ball against Los Angeles Rams cornerback Derion Kendrick (6) during the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

WR DK Metcalf and RB Kenneth Walker are the only Seahawks who need to be started ahead of this sneaky dud matchup.

Obviously, many will have to also take a long glance at the team’s additional talented skill-position weapons; just realize I’ll be answering most close start/sit questions involving Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba with the other guy as long as this offense continues to have such glaring problems on the line of scrimmage.

Is this Lions offense already looking more mid than last year?

Scoring 14 offensive points against a Chris Jones-less Chiefs defense certainly wasn’t a great start, especially with Marvin Jones looking rather washed during his spot start in place of suspended WR Jameson Williams.

Of course, Amon-Ra St. Brown is destined to rack up bunches of catches regardless of his offensive environment — kings stay kings, after all — but the overall upside of this passing game could be a bit lower than last year if the team’s defense continues to look as good as they did in Week 1.

The Sun God is a weekly upside WR1, David Montgomery is a TD-dependent RB2 and Jahmyr Gibbs *should* have bigger days ahead if head coach Dan Campbell’s post-game comments are any indication.

Early top-12 treatment was a bit rich for the Lions’ speedy rookie RB, but he remains a recommended start in leagues of most shapes and sizes — particularly full-PPR formats.

Chargers at Titans (LAC -3, 45)

What were the early returns on the Chargers’ new-look Kellen Moore-led offense?

The run game looked great, although it wasn’t like Justin Herbert suddenly worked up the courage to start throwing the rock downfield with reckless abandon. Overall, his 7.5-yard average target depth was indeed an improvement on last year’s lowly seven-yard mark, but this still ranked just 17th among 32 qualified QBs in Week 1.

It was just 60 minutes of action; fantasy managers shouldn’t panic over low passing totals when the offense still managed to rack up 34 points against the Dolphins.

The bigger issue is the potential for Austin Ekeler (hamstring) to miss some time. Ekeler even told fantasy managers to add his backup Joshua Kelley thanks to his potential to provide “FLEX with benefits” value throughout the season.

The problem for Kelley this week is the matchup against a pass-funnel Titans defense that shut down Jamaal Williams in Week 1 and allowed the fourth-fewest PPR points per game to the position last year.

Kelley is more of a volume-based RB2 than the “holy sh*t you need to start this guy no matter what” option should Ekeler ultimately miss Sunday’s game.

Is this Titans passing game capable of putting up points if called upon?

They were close last week, but Ryan Tannehill simply wasn’t up to the task.

First, the veteran QB failed to take advantage of a beautifully designed trick play and sailed a pass long to a wide-open Chigoziem Okonkwo. It sure looked like this should have been a 47-yard TD.

Next, Tannehill missed out on a potential 65-yard TD to RB Tyjae Spears, who had broken wide open down the left sideline courtesy of a busted coverage.

While Tannehill was rolling to his left, he had time — didn’t take a hit — and still proceeded to not even give the rookie RB a chance to come down with the ball inbounds, let alone make a game-changing house call.

The artist known as TanneThrill posted top-10 efficiency numbers in a myriad of advanced metrics from 2019 to 2022; don’t completely give up on the man for one bad week at the office.

That said: Expecting HUGE fireworks out of DeAndre Hopkins (ankle) and company in this winnable matchup might be a bit of wishful thinking considering the potential for the group to simply ride workhorse RB Derrick Henry against the Chargers’ notoriously meh run defense.

Continue to fire up Nuk (if healthy) and Henry in fantasy leagues of all shapes and sizes; otherwise wait to see if this passing game can improve in a meaningful way before investing in the complementary options.

Ravens at Bengals (CIN -3.5, 46.5)

Is this Ravens offense healthy enough to survive a shootout?

Meh. There are presently four pressing issues that leave Lamar Jackson and company operating at far less than 100%.

• RB J.K. Dobbins (Achilles) will miss the rest of the season
• TE Mark Andrews (quad) missed Week 1 and should be considered questionable for Sunday.
• LT Ronnie Stanley (sprained knee) will likely miss at least Week 2.
• C Tyler Linderbaum (sprained ankle) is considered week-to-week.

Maybe Lamar puts his cape on and parties like it’s 2019.

We should also expect rookie WR Zay Flowers to continue making defenders of all shapes and sizes look absolutely silly in space.

Or maybe the Bengals limit the Ravens to 21 or fewer points for the sixth (!) consecutive meeting.

Jackson has far too much weekly upside to ever consider putting near a fantasy bench; just don’t be surprised if this banged-up Ravens offense makes his life tougher than usual.

Was the Bengals’ Week 1 stinker just a bad day or a sign of things to come?

Burrow has never had a less productive game, totaling just 82 passing yards against a Browns defense that benefited mightily from rather terrible weather conditions in Cleveland.

I get it: We’ve seen Burrow save some of his best performances for snow games and other inclement January environments; just realize he had a lot of problems gripping the ball all game long —  something that makes sense given his nine-inch hand size (sixth-percentile).

Ultimately, Joe Brrr has put far too much good football on tape since entering the league to make any of us overly panic about a rough, weather-induced, 60 minutes of football. I’m inclined to treat this entire Bengals much like the Packers’ infamous 38-3 Week 1 stinker against the Saints back in 2021.

A hungry Bengals offense that remains one of the league’s most talented passing attacks at home in good weather facing a Ravens defense expected to be without their top two secondary starters, is that something you might be interested in?

Colts at Texans (IND -1.5, 40)

Just how great could the Anthony Richardson show continue to be in fantasy land?

Pretty, pretty, pretty great.

While Richardson wasn’t asked to do much as a passer — particularly not to the left side of the field — the Colts clearly had a game plan to get the ball out quickly AND to utilize his legs as much as possible.

This combination helped the 2023 NFL Draft’s No. 4 overall pick post an intriguing 223-1-1 passing line to go with his 10-40-1 performance on the ground. Overall, only Jalen Hurts (7) had more designed rush attempts than Richardson (6) in Week 1.

A late-injury scare hasn’t lingered into Week 2, as Richardson isn’t even listed on the injury report. Fire up this dual-threat baller as a weekly top-10 option at the position with upside for even more should this early-season passing success continue.

Are the days of hoping for Dameon Pierce fantasy RB1 szn over?

Not necessarily, but Week 1 wasn’t a great start.

Fantasy managers can live with two-back committees in the year 2023; things get more complicated when three RBs are involved.

This week’s matchup against the Colts *should* be the sort of game where the score is close enough for Pierce to maintain involvement throughout all four quarters, but the run-game-specific numbers aren’t exactly awesome.

It’ll be tough to expect much out of the talented second-year RB if not considering his current lack of a stranglehold on this backfield’s pass-down work.

Can fantasy managers rely on any Houston pass-catchers?

Rookie QB C.J Stroud fed the following players multiple targets in his first career start:

• Nico Collins (11 targets)
• Robert Woods (10)
• Tank Dell (4)
• Noah Brown (4)
• Dalton Schultz (4)
• Mike Boone (4)
• Dameon Pierce (3)

While the artist known as Bobby Trees figures to remain plenty involved, Collins really emerged as the No. 1 option when considering some of the yards that went into his total.

Overall, Collins (107) and Tee Higgins (145) were the only two WRs who racked up triple-digit “unrealized air yards”, which are a good metric to help find players who at least had the opportunity for big games, even though things didn’t come to fruition in Week 1.

Don’t get too carried away. Stroud certainly isn’t done experiencing some rookie year lumps, and this Texans offense is implied to score just 19.25 points in Week 2.

Still, Collins in particular has the potential to provide upside WR3 goodness throughout the year should this sort of No. 1 treatment persist.

Giants at Cardinals (NYG -5.5, 40)

Is this Giants offensive line going to keep ruining the entire offense?

Maybe! They allowed a 65.9% pressure rate in Week 1, which is good for the third-highest single-game mark since 2020 (TruMedia).

While the Cardinals’ pass rush also showed up in a big way in Week 1, their success getting to the QB was more so due to Sam Howell holding the ball too long than anything else.

Bold but true: The Giants will score points in future weeks.

Week 1 was HORRIBLE, but it was also against objectively one of the best defenses in the NFL. It’d make a lot of sense if this get-right spot produces some fireworks for the group’s most involved parties.

Continue to fire up Saquon Barkley as a weekly RB1, while Darren Waller is more of a mid-tier TE1 as opposed to a locked-in top-three option due to this ongoing hamstring… and lower back issue. Not great!

Waller fantasy managers should certainly consider scooping up some serious backup depth if possible; it seems more like a question of “when” not “if” he misses time in 2023. 

Can fantasy managers even somewhat trust anyone in the Cardinals’ sad excuse for an NFL offense?

Pretty much only James Conner, although Zach Ertz is an unexpectedly viable TE2 after racking up double-digit targets in Week 1.

Mostly just Conner though. He’s now peeled off five consecutive RB2-level finishes since Kyler Murray (knee, IR) went down at the end of 2022.

• Week 14, 2022: 15-85-1 rushing, 6-29-0 receiving, PPR RB5 (95% snaps)
• Week 15, 2022: 16-63-1, 3-28-0, RB12 (91%)
• Week 16, 2022: 15-79-1, 7-41-0, RB4 (97%)
• Week 17, 2022: 16-79-0, 3-31-0, RB15 (55% - left early with a shin injury)
• Week 1, 2023: 14-62-0, 5-8-0, RB20 (84%)

Look, I understand that it doesn’t feel good to start Conner. His production won’t be overly pretty, and scoring opportunities will remain tough to come by.

That said, It’s tough to overly fade anyone looking at 20-plus touches and 80%-plus snaps on a weekly basis.

Fire up Conner as a volume-based RB2 with more upside than usual against a Giants defense that was one of just four units to allow over 2,000 rushing yards to opposing RBs last season.

49ers at Rams (SF -8, 44.5)

Just how good is Brandon Aiyuk?

Pretty, pretty, pretty good.

Seriously: The man managed to put a season’s worth of highlights in just 60 minutes of football last Sunday.

Of course, it’s hard (read: impossible) to score fantasy football points without getting the ball, and Deebo Samuel continues to be the lead option. In six full games with both Brock Purdy and Deebo healthy:

• Samuel: 41
• Aiyuk: 34
• Christian McCaffrey: 31
• George Kittle: 27
• Jauan Jennings: 16

Aiyuk is the 49ers’ go-to option against man coverage, while Samuel gets most of the looks against zone.

Don’t be surprised if the latter receiver gets back to booming against a Rams defense that he’s managed to clear 100 total yards and/or score a TD against in all but one of their eight career meetings.

Are these new big producers in L.A. for real or just a fugazi?

Fantasy Life Director of Analytics Dwain McFarland broke down the future fantasy prospects for WR Puka Nacua and RB Kyren Williams in his ever-excellent Utilization Report.

On Nacua:

“So, is Nacua for real? I honestly can’t tell you for certain. There are positive and negative data points. However, he has demonstrated a strong rapport with Matthew Stafford and has a skill set that might mesh well with McVay’s scheme.

If you are in need of WR help, I would be very aggressive on Nacua. Yeah, he could flop, but we are early in the season, and if you hit, there is a lot to gain.

Outlook: WR3 with WR2 upside until Cooper Kupp returns.”

And for Williams:

“Williams was a solid target-earning option in college and could have a more significant role in that capacity in the coming weeks.

Cam Akers still led the way on the ground with 56% of the attempts, with Williams handling 38%. However, Willams stole crucial carries in the red zone and scored two TDs.

Outlook: RB3 with RB2 spike potential.”

Of course, the biggest piece of good news out of Los Angeles is the simple reality that this offense looked good in Week 1 after mightily struggling out of the gate in 2022. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out who made that possible. 

Is Matthew Stafford partying like it’s 2021 again?

Oh yeah. I mean, look at these f*cking throws!

Most impressive was how much of the passing game was truly on the back of Stafford: Just 33.8% of his passing yardage came from yards-after-the-catch goodness — the third-lowest mark in Week 1.

Up next is a far tougher test against objectively the NFL’s best defense.

The 49ers have limited Stafford to 243-1-2, 238-3-2, 254-0-1 and 187-1-0 passing lines in four regular season matchups.

Rams nation better hope that Stafford manages to look more like his 2021 NFC Championship Game self (337-2-1) in order to overcome Fred Warner and company.

Commanders at Broncos (DEN -3.5, 38.5)

Were Sam Howell’s Week 1 sacks more on him or the offensive line?

Definitely more so on him. The below chart demonstrates every QB’s sacks taken in Week 1 (Y-axis) alongside their average time to being pressured (X-axis).

PFF ranked the Commanders' offensive line as just their 27th-best unit ahead of 2023, but it’s tough to blame them too much for the group’s Week 1 downfall. Howell’s placement in the top right means he: 1.) Took a lot of sacks, and 2.) Didn’t face anything resembling quick pressure.

A long average time to throw can be fine when the QB is athletic enough to routinely escape incoming pass rushers, but Howell failed to make that a consistent reality in Week 1.

This week’s matchup against a Broncos pass rush that ranked dead last in pressure rate last week (13.8%) *should* provide some more clean pockets, but failure to get the ball out with a sense of urgency against any defense can make even a mediocre pass-rush suddenly look awfully good.

Regardless, is Sam Howell still shaping up as a fantasy-friendly QB2  option?

You bet - Mostly thanks to rather ridiculous rushing production through two career starts.

Most fantasy points per game from purely rushing production 2022-23 (min. 2 starts)

1. Justin Fields (10.5)
2. Jalen Hurts (9.9)
3. Howell (8.3)
4. Lamar Jackson (7.6)
5. Josh Allen (7.2)

Not bad company! The fantasy ceiling might as well be the roof should Howell and his talented group of pass-catchers really get grooving at some point.

Is Brian Robinson suddenly a weekly must-start RB2?

Pretty close! The Big Hat aficionado has largely been force-fed the ball whenever healthy enough to suit up since being drafted with the 98th overall pick of the 2022 NFL Draft:

Obviously, most of those are rush attempts and fantasy managers would prefer targets, although it’s hard to be too picky with any RB looking at a solid weekly chance of receiving a touch total beginning with a two.

Don’t get too carried away here — especially against a Broncos front seven that limited Josh Jacobs to just 71 scoreless yards on 22 touches last week — but Robinson has earned low-end RB2 treatment and could have some BIG days ahead should the Commanders offense find a way to provide more fantasy-friendly red zone opportunities.

What’s the difference in Sean Payton’s scheme and the 2022 Broncos?

Two key differences were on full display in Payton’s first game leading the Broncos offense relative to what this group dealt with last season:

• Play-action: Last year’s Broncos utilized play-action on just 21% of their dropbacks (eighth-lowest mark in the NFL). But in Week 1? Wilson used play-action on a whopping 32.4% of his dropbacks — good for the sixth-highest mark of the week.
• Pressure: Despite facing a formidable Raiders pass rush led by Maxx Crosby, Wilson was pressured on just 21.6% of his dropbacks — the fourth-lowest mark of Week 1. Last season the Broncos’ 35.5% pressure rate was the ninth-worst rate in the league.

I’m more inclined to believe the latter variable was more due to pure schematic goodness than chance considering the Broncos posted the week’s third-highest rate in both

1. Snaps with six-plus offensive linemen on the field
2. 12 personnel

The results weren’t immediately golden — the Broncos have now scored 16 or fewer points in 11 of Wilson’s 16 starts — but these improvements *should* lead to bigger and better things if/when the team’s pass-catchers get healthier and more attuned to what Payton is trying to accomplish.

Jets at Cowboys (DAL -9.5, 39.5)

What the hell do the Jets do now?

Hopefully, just give the ball to Breece Hall every play considering how absurdly efficient the second-year stud was with his touches in Week 1.

But yeah: Not great! Swapping out Aaron Rodgers for Zach Wilson is the equivalent to breaking your expensive sunglasses on vacation and being forced to live with gas station lenses for the rest of your trip.

Actually, this is probably even worse than that (shoutout PUGS sunglasses).

As we saw last week: Garrett Wilson is far too good at football to hit the fantasy bench despite his grotesque on-off splits with Wilson under center, and Hall is more than capable of making the absolute most out of his limited opportunities that will assuredly increase as the season goes on.

Sadly, a date with Micah Parsons and company is hardly the sort of smooth game to help this offense find their groove. Wilson plummets to more of a low-end WR2 without Rodgers under center, and Hall remains a low-end RB2 without the benefit of 15-plus guaranteed touches. 

What were the main differences that head coach Mike McCarthy deployed as a play-caller?

We’ll roll with data from the first three quarters of the game considering the Cowboys were able to call off the dogs early during their blowout 40-0 victory over the Giants last Sunday night:

• Pass-play rate: 2023: 50%. 2022: 54%.
• Play-action rate: 2023: 40%. 2022: 27.2%.
• Deep-ball rate: 2023: 5%. 2022: 4.3%.
• Shift/motion rate: 2023: 72.5%. 2022: 53.1%.

We’re only working with a 45-minute sample here, and even that portion of the game was influenced by the blowout game script, but it does seem like McCarthey was very serious regarding his desire to run the damn ball a bit more than last season.

Jan 8, 2022; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (88) reacts after a play during the game against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

The good news is the Cowboys utilized a heavy dose of window dressing in the form of motion and play-action to go along with the run-heavy approach.

This should once again be a fairly efficient passing attack.

The bad news is that volume remains king in fantasyland, and it’s looking tough for everyone involved here not named Tony Pollard or CeeDee Lamb.

For now, Pollard and Lamb are the only surefire locks for fantasy lineups until we have some sort of evidence that Dak Prescott won’t merely be asked to game-manage this unit to victory.

This is especially true against a loaded Jets defense that put forward a rather great effort in Week 1 against Josh Allen and the Bills.

Sunday Night Football Dolphins at Patriots (MIA -2.5, 46.5)

Should fantasy managers keep firing up Raheem Mostert?

Abso-lutely. Mostert has now posted the following PPR fantasy finishes and snap rates in his last seven games as the Dolphins’ lead back with Jeff Wilson (finger/midsection, IR) out of the picture:

• PPR RB18, 73% snap rate
• RB13, 76%
• RB38, 65%
• RB7, 71%
• RB37, 62%
• RB15, 69%
• RB30, 72%

Not a perfect hit rate, but consistent high-end snap-by-snap involvement has helped the 31-year-old veteran provide plenty of RB2 goodness with upside for even more.

Obviously, Bill Belichick and company don’t figure to make life easy for anyone involved in Mike McDaniel’s high-flying attack, but Mostert remains a viable FLEX candidate in leagues of most shapes and sizes thanks to his potential to see 15-plus touches inside of one of the league’s most-lethal offenses when everything is clicking.

Is Tua Tagovailoa ironically the NFL’s premiere deep-ball passer?

Ironically because of the longstanding notion that Tua doesn’t have the arm strength to force defenses to beat defenses down the field.

But to answer the question: Yes!

Tua on passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield 2022-23:

• PFF Pass Grade: 95.8 (No. 2 among 49 qualified QB)
• Yards per attempt: 18.3 (No. 2)
• Adjusted completion rate: 58.7% (No. 1)
• Passer rating: 120.2 (No. 1)

Obviously, the scheme and world-beating talents of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle deserve some credit — Hill’s route tree in particular looks like one of those old Natural Geographic mazes — but you know who also deserves some love? The current frontrunner for 2023 MVP honors.

*Whispers* Is the good version of Mac Jones officially back?

Hopefully! There were certainly some good signs in *how* Jones and the offense went about attacking the Eagles in Week 1 during his 316-3-1 performance:

• RPOs. Last season the Patriots utilized run-pass-options on just 7.5% (20th) of their dropbacks. This mark nearly doubled in Week 1, as New England’s 14.1% mark was the 11th-highest mark in the league.
• Screens. Jones and company already threw plenty of screens in 2022 (17%, No. 4) but that mark soared even higher in Week 1 of 2023 (24.1%, No. 4) with new offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien at the helm.
• Deep ball rate. One common critique of former OC Matt Patricia was his reliance on the short game. Overall, the Patriots’ 4.4% deep-ball rate ranked just 13th in 2022 — their 13% mark in Week 1 was the seventh-highest mark of any offense.

It’s not guaranteed these trends stick, but the early results were certainly good despite the offense’s continued lack of high-end pass-game options at Jones’ disposal.

Here’s to hoping BOB (continues) to get more out of Jones than Patricia managed throughout 2022.

How big of a problem is Ezekiel Elliott to Rhamondre Stevenson’s fantasy upside?

Not much.

While Zeke shaved off a bit more than a third of the offense’s snaps and rush attempts, Stevenson continued to be the offense's featured receiving option in all facets of the game:

The potential for Zeke to vulture some goal-line TDs stands to be annoying one week or another, although that shouldn’t stop Stevenson from maintaining all sorts of PPR-friendly upside thanks to his potential to catch five-plus passes during any given week.

The latter point is more true than ever against a Dolphins defense that has allowed bottom-six marks in receptions (95), receiving yards (728), and receiving TDs (6) to opposing RBs since the beginning of last season.

Monday Night Football: Saints at Panthers (NO -3, 40)

Is this an absolute smash spot for EVERYONE in the Saints' offense?

Pretty much! At least for the skill-position talents:

• RB Jamaal Williams only converted his 20 touches into 52 scoreless yards in Week 1, but his elite 75% snap rate demonstrates the reality that this is HIS backfield while Alvin Kamara is suspended and Kendre Miller (hamstring) is banged up.
• WR Chris Olave already had a big performance (8-112-0), but he also managed to pop on the unrealized air yards leaderboard. Translation: Olave’s impressive day would have actually been even bigger with a bit more accuracy out of Derek Carr.
• WR Michael Thomas looked healthy on his way to catching five of eight targets for 61 scoreless yards. Higher-scoring games *should* yield more fantasy-friendly red-zone opportunities for the team’s most physical WR.
• WR Rashid Shaheed demonstrated more big-play goodness with five receptions for 89 yards and a score. Don’t expect the talented second-year WR to boom every week, but a full-time role in this good — maybe great in the right matchup — passing attack isn’t too shabby.
• TE Juwan Johnson only caught three passes for 36 scoreless yards, but he was on the field for 82% of Carr’s dropbacks and looked quite good in the route-running department for a 6-foot-4, 230-pound TE.

This Panthers defense had few answers for the Falcons’ limited offense last week; don’t be surprised if the wheels fall off in a more meaningful way against this far more complete offensive group.

Can Miles Sanders be trusted as a volume-induced RB2 in Fantasy Land?

For the most part, although his underlying utilization wasn’t quite as ideal as many were hoping:

• Snaps: Sanders (58%), Chuba Hubbard (36%)
• Rush attempts: Sanders (60%), Hubbard (30%)
• Routes: Sanders (48%), Hubbard (31%)
• Targets: Sanders (14%), Hubbard (7%)

This split proved to be enough for Sanders to rack up RB2-level production in a week that saw the Panthers run 72 plays, but the general meh-ness of this Carolina offense resulted in minimal fantasy-friendly red zone opportunities.

Sanders is tough to drive too far down the ranks thanks to his status as the clear lead back who *should* see 15-plus touches per week, but similar to someone like James Conner, It’s tough to be overly thrilled about the attached upside as long as this offense continues to look like one of the league’s bottom-five units.

Is it fair to say Bryce Young was quite bad in his debut?

Oh yes. Most notable was Young missing a rather wide-open Jonathan Mingo on what should have at least been a chunk gain, if not a mesmerizing 99-yard score.

One bad throw doesn’t always mean the entire performance was bad, although you’ll be hard-pressed to find an advanced metric that paints Young’s debut as anything other than ugly.

• PFF pass grade: 36.3 (No. 32 among 32 qualified QBs in Week 1)
• CPOE: -3.6% (No. 22)
• EPA per dropback: -0.22 (No. 25)
• Passer rating: 48.8 (No. 30)
• Adjusted completion rate: 69% (No. 27)
• Yards per attempt: 3.8 (No. 31)

Obviously Young isn’t playing alongside the world’s most-talented group of pass-catchers, but then again that reality isn’t expected to change anytime soon.

Here’s to hoping the 2023 NFL Draft’s No. 1 overall pick experiences better days ahead, but until then it’s tough to be overly excited about anyone involved here in fantasy land.

Monday Night Football: Browns at Steelers (CLE -2.5, 39.5)

Is this 2023 Browns passing game any different from 2022?

The Browns showed signs of opening up their playbook during the preseason and continued to do so in Week 1 despite inadequate weather that largely nose-dived both passing games involved.

Overall, Cleveland ran an empty formation on a whopping 15.3% of their snaps in Week 1 — the sixth-highest mark of the week and well above last season’s 9.7% mark.

Now equipped with Elijah Moore in addition to familiar outside WRs Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones: Deshaun Watson is in control of this unit and figures to have all kinds of opportunities to move the ball through the air moving forward.

Don’t be surprised if Moore in particular enjoys a mini-breakout before too long.

Of course, aerial success was tough to come by in Week 1, but Watson still managed to secure a top-five fantasy fish thanks to his work on the ground.

One of just eight QBs averaging north of 30 rushing yards per game over the past two seasons, Watson has the play style to still provide some rather awesome fantasy production even if he fails to get back to balling like it’s pre-2021 again.

Where is the volume being centralized in this 2023 Steelers offense?

Pretty much everywhere, sadly. The backfield is more split than ever thanks to Jaylen Warren’s rise, while Kenny Pickett fed seven different players between four and eight targets during the team’s disappointing blowout loss to the 49ers.

Of course, the field was also more condensed than ever with Pickett’s already meh 2022 eight-yard average target depth reduced to 7.4 last Sunday.

Aug 11, 2023; Tampa, Florida, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver George Pickens (14) celebrates with quarterback Kenny Pickett (8) after scoring a touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the first quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

He completed just one pass thrown more than 15 yards downfield and generally struggled to move the ball all game long.

Pickett and the Steelers scored five TDs in five preseason drives together. They totaled *one* net yard and zero first downs in their first five drives last Sunday.

A Monday night date with Myles Garrett and company probably isn’t the get-right cure that this offense needs — particularly with No. 1 WR Diontae Johnson (hamstring) expected to miss the next four weeks of action.

I’ll be answering the heavy majority of close start/sit questions involving any Steelers player with the other guy.