Fantasy Questions Week 3. Key Questions For Every Team.

Eleven percent of the 2023 NFL regular season has concluded, meaning we have all sorts of things to talk about ahead of what sure looks like an exhilarating Week 3 slate.

Today’s goal: Break down Week 3 by asking — and attempting to answer — the most meaningful fantasy-related questions possible.

And maybe even have some fun too. Because, you know, why not?

Questions are ordered chronologically by game. Check out the Fantasy Life Game Hub for updated spreads and totals throughout the week. Fantasy Life’s team of expert rankers also have you covered (for free!) if you’re into that kind of thing.

As always: It’s a great day to be great.

Texans at Jaguars (JAX -9.5, 44)

Can Dameon Pierce be started with any level of confidence?

Not really! The Texans have turned one of the game’s biggest tackle-breaking threats into an early-down plodder into a glorified committee grinder.

Fantasy managers could live with Devin Singletary siphoning away a handful of touches per game — single-RB backfields are awfully rare in the year 2023 after all — but the presence of Mike Boone or Dare Ogunbowale in pass-first situations makes life that much harder for the talented second-year RB.

Further complicating matters is the reality that this Texans offensive line is quite bad in its present state: They join the Jaguars, Bears, Buccaneers and Steelers as the only offenses averaging fewer than 0.5 rushing yards before contact per carry through two weeks. Pierce is certainly doing his best.

Pierce will have better days when the Texans are able to play with a lead and spend a bit more time establishing the ole run, but don’t expect that to come to fruition in Week 3’s road trip to Jacksonville, where Trevor Lawrence and company are sitting pretty as nine-point favorites. None of Fantasy Life’s rankers have Pierce inside the position’s top-24 options ahead of this tough spot.

Are the early returns on C.J. Stroud pretty solid?

Certainly not as terrible as many believed to be possible entering the year:

• EPA per dropback: -0.09 (No. 23 among 33 QBs with 25-plus dropbacks)
• CPOE: -1.4% (No. 21)
• PFF passing grade: 60.2 (No. 25)
• Passer rating: 91.2 (No. 17)
• Adjusted completion rate: 73.3% (No. 24)
• Yards per attempt: 6.9 (No. 16)

Even more encouraging has been the Texans’ willingness to let Stroud air the ball out all game long. Overall, the Texans boast a +3% dropback rate over expected, indicating they are more than comfortable with the 2023 NFL Draft’s No. 2 overall pick leading the way.

Failure for the Texans to get their offensive line in order could be more problematic than usual this week against the Jaguars’ pair of stud pass rushers in Josh Allen and Travon Walker; just realize Stroud is moving his way up the ranks and will be consistently in the upside QB2 conversation with more stellar performances.

For now, Nico Collins (legit WR3) and Robert Woods (WR4/FLEX) are the only options in this passing game fantasy managers should feel especially good about starting, but that’s still a helluva lot better than most opinions on this group just a few weeks ago.

What should the panic level be in Jacksonville after back-to-back meh offensive performances?

The Jaguars, Steelers and Jets have worked as the league’s three least-efficient offenses when looking at a combination of EPA per run and pass (TruMedia):

Things were oh so close to clicking in Week 2. Overall, there were *four* instances of Jaguars pass-catchers coming down with the target in the end zone but only getting one foot down inbounds.

Week 1’s 31-point effort against the Colts was certainly a better showing; just realize even that game didn’t produce fireworks, as all three of T-Law’s scoring drives came with the benefit of rather great field position.

That said: I am NOT panicking here. If anything, the fact this offensive line has allowed the fourth-lowest pressure rate (27.1%) through two weeks is a great sign for things to come.

This offense has weapons all over the place and Lawrence still very much looks the part of the next big thing at the position. It’d make sense if the group finally puts together a sustained, dominant effort in Week 3 against the Texans.

Saints at Packers (GB -2, 42.5)

Do the Saints boast the league’s best WR trio?

They are certainly playing like it through two weeks of action. Overall, only the Dolphins (8.16) boast three WRs with more combined yards per route than the Saints (7.32).

Chris Olave remains the alpha of the group, but Michael Thomas is looking healthy and Rashid Shaheed seemingly puts at least one corner on skates courtesy of a dope double-move every week.

Don’t be surprised if Olave really booms here shortly. One of just four players with more than 150 unrealized air yards this season: Derek Carr and his No. 1 WR have left a LOT of meat on the bone despite still achieving a good bit of success:

1. Kendrick Bourne (254)
2. Tee Higgins (198)
3. Tyreek Hill (166)
4. Chris Olave (160)

Is Tony Jones Jr. worthy of streaming consideration?

Not really due to the fact that rookie RB Kendre Miller is expected to make his NFL debut on Sunday after missing the first two games with a hamstring issue.

While Jones and Miller should form a fairly evenly split two-back committee, there’s always potential for professional vulture Taysom Hill to make his presence felt in a major way near the goal line.

Through two weeks this has been one of the league’s very worst offenses in terms of expected RB PPR points per game:

• Jaguars (36.3 expected RB PPR points per game)
• Chiefs (35.8)
• Cardinals (34.8)
• Saints (32.8)
• Jets (32.7)

Jones is a TD-dependent RB3 for desperate fantasy managers; Miller is the better stash option due to his potential to work more consistently alongside Alvin Kamara in Week 4 and beyond while Jamaal Williams (hamstring) misses time.

Speaking of Kamara…

What’s our way-too-early conclusion on Jordan Love?

Most of Love’s TD passes this year have been mostly thanks to well-designed plays from head coach Matt LaFleur, although the “veteran” QB did make a few throws in Week 2 that demonstrated his first-round arm talent.

That said: Things have gotten messy in a hurry when LaFleur hasn’t made things easy on Love.

Of course, style points don’t matter in fantasy land, and Love is inexplicably the overall QB2 behind only Kirk Cousins after two weeks of action… but now he’s gotta deal with a Saints defense that made life absolute hell for Ryan Tannehill and Bryce Young in Weeks 1 and 2:

• QB fantasy points allowed: 19.9 (No. 4)
• EPA allowed per pass: -0.307 (No. 3)
• Yards per attempt allowed: 5.2 (No. 4)
• Passer rating allowed: 57.5 (No. 2)
• Explosive pass play rate allowed: 10.1% (No. 9)

This offense would certainly be in a better spot with healthy versions of Christian Watson (hamstring) and Aaron Jones (hamstring) back in action, but I’m still a bit skeptical of crowning Love as a legit QB1 in fantasy land.

He’s my QB19 on the week and not someone that fantasy managers should overly trust ahead of this tough spot.

Bills at Commanders (BUF -6.5, 44.5)

Is James Cook locked in as a weekly upside RB2?

Yes. Just look at this utilization!

The second-year RB has made the most out of his opportunities along the way, posting top-10 marks in missed tackles forced per carry (0.28), yards per carry (5.8) yards after contact per carry (4.4) and yards per route run (1.13).

Yes, the Bills seem content to let Latavius Murray and Damien Harris handle the majority of goal-line work.

Also yes, Cook is on pace for a whopping 315 touches and 1,887 total yards after two weeks of action.

Beggars can’t be choosers in fantasy land: 15-plus combined carries and targets per week inside of this Josh Allen-led attack can and will go a long way this season.

It’d be cooler if the Bills gave Cook a goal-line carry here and there, but the young back’s explosive pass-catching ability is more than enough to make up for a lack of short-down-and-distance usage.

Is this the week rookie TE Dalton Kincaid BOOMS in a major way?

Kincaid has posted 4-26-0 and 5-43-0 receiving lines and is clearly locked in as a top-five pass-game option in Buffalo:

• Stefon Diggs (20 targets)
• Gabe Davis (11)
• Kincaid (10)
• James Cook (10)
• Dawson Knox (9)

It’d be a lot cooler if Kincaid’s 67% route rate on the season was a bit higher (80% is what we look for at TE), but it’s less of a problem in this Josh Allen-led pass-happy offense.

Credit to the Commanders for posting top-five numbers in PPR points per game allowed to opposing TEs last season, although Kincaid has run 69% (nice) of his routes in the slot or out wide this season.

Don’t be surprised if the Bills’ rookie TE produces a boom sooner rather than later as long as he remains a clear-cut featured receiver in this ever-potent passing attack.

Just how high is Brian Robinson’s weekly ceiling?

Pretty high! The Big Hat aficionado has largely been force-fed the ball whenever healthy enough to suit up since being drafted with the 98th overall pick of the 2022 NFL Draft:

Obviously most of those are rush attempts and fantasy managers would prefer targets, although it’s hard to be too picky with any RB looking at a solid weekly chance of receiving a touch total beginning with a two.

Don’t get too carried away here — especially against a Blls front-seven that limited Josh Jacobs to -2 (!) yards on nine carries last week — but Robinson has earned consistent upside RB2 treatment and could have some BIG days ahead should the Commanders offense find a way to play with a solid lead.

What’s our way-too-early conclusion on Sam Howell?

Well, this throw at least was rather amazing.

Overall, Howell’s +1.6% CPOE ranks a respectable 14th among all QBs, while his +0.05 EPA per dropback is also perfectly fine (16th).

There’s legit reason to be excited about Howell’s real-life potential moving forward, and the optimism surrounding his fantasy upside should be even higher. Small sample size be damned, here is the leaderboard for fantasy points per game at the position over the past two seasons (min. 3 starts, ha)

1. Jalen Hurts (24.5)
2. Patrick Mahomes (24.1)
3. Josh Allen (23.8)
4. Joe Burrow (20.5)
5. Justin Fields (19.1)
6. Lamar Jackson (19)
7. Howell (18.2)

This offense has a pair of stud receivers, and Howell continues to prove plenty willing to use his legs to pick up extra yardage when the moment calls for it. The second-year QB still has plenty of things to improve on — particularly not holding the ball so long and accordingly taking so many sacks — but it’s hard not to be optimistic about his future potential.

It’d make sense if Howell crashes back to earth a bit on Sunday against a Bills defense that limited both the Jets (117) and Raiders (185) to under 200 passing yards, but if not? Look the hell out, people. 

Chargers at Vikings (MIN -0.5, 54

Can Joshua Kelley still be trusted after last week’s dud?

Yes. Don’t get it twisted: That performance sucked, but it did come against the perennially stout Titans run defense.

Kelley’s underlying usage was more than enough to again warrant RB2 consideration:

• Snaps: 78%
• Rush attempt share: 62%
• Route participation rate: 66%
• Short down and distance snaps: 83%
• Long down and distance snaps: 77%
• Two-minute snaps: 100%

Don’t expect Kelley to get peppered with targets like he’s Austin Ekeler (ankle), but 15-plus combined carries and targets should still go a long way inside of a Chargers offense presently implied to score 26.75 points — the sixth-highest mark of Week 2.

This Vikings run defense had absolutely no answers for D’Andre Swift (28-175-1) last week. Kelley doesn’t need to be forced into every starting lineup — just don’t let last week’s dud overly impact this week’s start/sit decision.

Is T.J. Hockenson the new overall TE1 in fantasy football?

Not quite, but holy f*ck has the ex-Lions TE been on a roll ever since getting sent to Minnesota:

In 13 games…

• 114 targets
• 85 receptions
• 740 yards
• 5 TD

This comes out to an average of 14.5 PPR points per game, which would have easily been good for overall TE2 status in 2022.

Sep 14, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Minnesota Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson (87) scores a touchdown after a catch against the Philadelphia Eagles during the second quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Hockenson’s average of six yards per target reflects the reality that he hasn’t been overly efficient with his opportunities, but there’s been more than enough volume for him to still post massive fantasy numbers.

Don’t expect production to come easy in one-on-one matchups with Derwin James; just realize Hockenson has earned matchup-proof top-three treatment at this point.

What does the Cam Akers trade mean for Alexander Mattison workhorse RB szn?

It’s certainly not great considering the familiarity that Akers and head coach Kevin O’Connell have with each other dating back to O’Connell’s tenure as Rams offensive coordinator. While it’d be surprising if Akers rushed into too much action this Sunday, the potential for more split touches is bad news for an RB who has already struggled to get pretty much anything going on the ground through two weeks:

Mattison ranks among 37 RBs with 15-plus carries

• PFF rushing grade: 55.2 (No. 34)
• Yards per carry: 3.2 (No. 29)
• Yards after contact per carry: 2.3 (tied for No. 29)
• Missed tackles forced per carry: 0 (tied for No. 36)

Throw in a pedestrian 6-21-1 receiving line, and Mattison simply hasn’t managed to return the sort of value that many expected when drafting him in the early-middle rounds of 2023 fantasy drafts.

Good news: This Chargers run defense has been rather horrible for the better part of the last 13 months, ranking as a bottom-three unit in both raw yards per carry and yards before contact per carry allowed since Week 1 of last season.

If this Vikings run game can’t get it done in this spot, it’s tough to imagine when, or maybe if, they ever will. I’m firing up Mattison as an upside RB2 once again this week; just realize failure to really make something happen again could lead to a legit competition with Akers for future lead-back duties.

Is it time to trust Jordan Addison in fantasy lineups of all shapes and sizes?

Abso-lutely. The Vikings have hilariously only used three WRs to run routes all season, and Addison’s 78% route rate in Week 2 was exactly the sort of bump fantasy managers needed to see before truly trusting the rookie as a legit recommended start.

Yes, Addison has only seen 11 targets this season.

Also yes, he’s made the absolute most out of them, averaging a fanatic 1.99 yards per route run and an absurd 19 yards per reception. Overall, Addison’s 145.1 passer rating when targeted is the fifth-highest mark among 80 players with at least 10 targets this season.

This Chargers secondary was absolutely hoodwinked and bamboozled by the Dolphins in Week 1 before letting Ryan Tannehill and company largely do whatever they wanted in Week 2. The Vikings-Chargers 54.5 game total is a full 6.5 points higher than any other Week 2 matchup — close start/sit decisions regarding anyone in this matchup should probably go to whoever has a horn or lightning bolt on their helmet.

Titans at Browns (CLE -3, 39.5)

Can anyone be overly trusted in fantasy land aside from King Henry?

Not with THAT much confidence, although at least Ryan Tannehill proved capable of making good things happen through the air again in Week 2 after his disastrous Week 1 performance.

Still: This Titans offense continues to do little other than hand the rock off to Derrick Henry:

• 2023: -5.4% pass rate over expected (27th)
• 2022: -10.6% (30th)
• 2021: -8.2% (No. 32)
• 2020: -9.4% (No. 30)
• 2019: -6% (No. 30)
• 2018: -7.6% (No. 31)
• 2017: -4.2% (No. 24)

It was good to see that DeAndre Hopkins’ ankle injury was more of a maintenance issue than anything that would limit his usage, but his always-solid target share simply isn’t going as far inside of this Henry-centered attack.

A similar sentiment is true for Treylon Burks and Chigoziem Okonkwo: Both talented youngsters need to be absurdly efficient with their touches in order to make up for the overall lack of volume available.

Ultimately, I’ll be answering the vast majority of start/sit questions featuring a non-Henry Titan with the other guy due to the lack of overall upside for all pass-game parties involved. This is especially true against a Browns defense that ranks second in EPA allowed per play (-0.431) after two weeks of action.

How high is too high to rank Jerome Ford with Nick Chubb (knee, IR) sidelined?

Fantasy Life’s ranking team has Ford as our consensus RB21 at the time of this writing. Pretty solid, but also not exactly must-start territory.

This has more to do with this week’s offensive expectations and matchup than anything against Ford’s usage or ability. Even the newfound presence of Kareem Hunt shouldn’t impact things that much considering the team quite literally had all offseason to retain his services if they really wanted their long-time overqualified RB2 around.

The problem for this week is that matchup against a Titans defense that has consistently sold out to stop the run. Overall, only the Jaguars, Cowboys and Eagles have posted better marks in EPA allowed per run play than the Titans through two weeks of action — and this has come at the expense of defending the pass.

Pass funnel defenses based on the difference in EPA allowed per run vs. pass:

• Titans (+22: No. 4 vs. run, No. 26 vs. pass)
• Bears (+19)
• Jets (+17)
• Broncos (+17)

Accordingly, nobody has allowed fewer PPR points per game to opposing RBs than the Titans through two weeks of action.

Ford has the pass-game chops and volume ceiling to still provide some fantasy goodness this week despite the tough matchup; just realize things would certainly be a lot easier if his QB got back to balling like it was 2020 again.

Is Deshaun Watson simply done being a good NFL QB?

Watson’s eight starts with the Browns have come with far more bad than good.

Yes, poor weather has made life difficult on more than a few occasions.

Also yes, it’s fair to be critical about the lack of high-end performances from the man making $230 million.

Among 35 QBs with 250-plus dropbacks since Week 1 of last season…

• PFF passing grade: 55.2 (No. 32)
• Passer rating: 76.2 (No. 33)
• Adjusted completion rate: 71.1% (No. 29)
• Yards per attempt: 6.2 (No. 33)

Of course, fantasy football doesn’t always necessitate that players also, you know, be good in real life, and Waton’s 11-67-1 rushing line — with a pair of two-point conversions — has helped him score more fantasy points than guys like Geno Smith, Brock Purdy, Lamar Jackson, Matthew Stafford, Trevor Lawrence and Dak Prescott among others.

Sadly, the Browns have no choice but to turn the offense completely over to Watson at this point after losing Nick Chubb (knee, IR) for the season — I’m firing up Watson as a top-12 option at the position against the Titans’ pass-funnel defense, but it’d behoove fantasy managers to start trying to find a longer-term fix at the position with far less appealing matchups against the Ravens and 49ers up next.

Patriots at Jets (NE -3, 37)

Is Rhamondre Stevenson a prime buy-low candidate?

Oh hell yeah. Just look at this utilization.

Stevenson has handed roughly a third of the RB snaps to former Cowboys back Ezekiel Elliott, but make no mistake about it: This backfield still firmly belongs to No. 38.

The receiving upside here in particular is simply impossible to ignore in full-PPR formats. The position’s current leaders in PPR fantasy points from purely receiving production are as follows:

1. Bijan Robinson (23.5)
2. Saquon Barkley (19.1)
3. Kyren Williams (17)
4. Jaylen Warren (16.8)
5. Aaron Jones (16.6 — in one game)
6. Stevenson (16.4)

Stevenson posted 7-72-0 and 6-56-0 receiving lines against this Sauce Gardner-let secondary last season — don’t be surprised if the Patriots again look to attack the underneath areas of the field in a major way this Sunday.

Does Hunter Henry deserve top-10 fantasy treatment the rest of the way?

Pretty close to it! Sterling 5-56-1 and 6-52-1 receiving lines to start the season have Henry sitting pretty as the overall TE2 in PPR points behind only T.J. Hockenson. He’s posted an 82% route participation rate and earned a target on 15% of Mac Jones’ dropbacks along the way, indicating this production isn’t of the fluke variety.

Further helping matters this week is a matchup against a Jets defense that is good enough against WRs to typically force opposing offenses to instead feature their TEs. Since Week 1 of last season:

• Receptions allowed: 105 (tied for No. 17)
• Yards allowed: 1,102 (No. 27)
• Yards per attempt allowed: 7.7 (No. 21)
• PPR fantasy points allowed: 13.7 (No. 24)

Henry is a consensus top-12 option this week per the Fantasy Life consensus rankings; his early-season production looks far more like a sign of more good things to come than a flash in the pan. 

Can anyone in this offense overcome the Zach Wilson experience?

Every now and then you will see the Jets’ young QB make an absolutely absurd throw that makes you wonder if maybe one day things could be better.

But all in all: The Zach Wilson experience continues to produce far more lows than highs. This offensive line allowing a league-high 55% pressure rate hasn’t helped; just realize this passing game ranks dead ass last in EPA per attempt (-0.421) for a reason.

Overall, this Jets offense ranks as a bottom-two group in expected PPR points at RB (32nd), WR (31st) and TE (31st) alike (PFF). Not ideal!

Credit to Garrett Wilson for making arguably the catch of the year in Week 1 and then showing off some serious open-field speed by taking a short in-breaking route 68 yards to the house vs. the Cowboys; just realize it’s really tough to expect consistent fantasy goodness from anyone involved in an offense that has produced just 16, 17, 20, 3, 17, 3, 22 and 10 points in Wilson’s last eight starts.

Wilson maintains WR2 treatment thanks to the reality that he’s an absolute baller, but otherwise I’ll be answering the heavy majority of close start/sit questions involving a Jets player with the other guy – even Breece Hall until the team decides to break away from its current three-RB committee system.

Falcons at Lions (DET -3, 46.5)

How has Desmond Ridder fared through six career starts?

Pretty, pretty, pretty horrible as a whole.

• PFF passing grade: 53.6 (No. 39 among 42 QBs with 150-plus dropback since 2022)
• Passer rating: 8.4 (No. 23)
• Adjusted completion rate: 71.4% (No. 32)
• Yards per attempt: 6.4 (No. 35)

That said: Ridder did put together what I considered his finest game as a pro in Week 2, showing newfound willingness to extend plays (nearly had a dope TD to Mack Hollins in the back of the end zone) AND actually running the ball when the opportunity presented itself (10-39-1 rushing).

This offense has high-end playmakers all over the place; here’s to hoping Week 2 was a sign of more good things to come from Ridder and not just a blip on the radar. 

Is the whole Kyle Pitts TE1 thing ever going to happen?

It’s not looking good that’s for sure.

Overall, Pitts has posted non-needle-moving 2-44-0 and 2-15-0 receiving lines to start the season. Nobody is doubting the 2021 NFL Draft’s No. 4 overall pick has high-end talent, but there simply hasn’t been enough catchable opportunity on the table for anything major to come to fruition.

The Falcons actually rank a solid enough 11th in expected PPR points to the position this season, but just four of Pitts’ targets have been considered catchable by PFF, and No. 2 TE Jonnu Smith (8 targets vs. 6) has been far more involved than anyone would prefer.

Pitts remains a low-end TE1 option because that’s how bad this position is as a whole; just realize there’s not much of a ceiling here as long as head coach Arthur Smith treats him as the team’s de facto No. 4 pass-game option.

How high is Jahmyr Gibbs’ upside with David Montgomery (thigh) sidelined?

Pretty high! From Fantasy Life Director of Analytics Dwain McFarland’s ever-excellent Utilization Report:

“After Montgomery exited Week 2, Gibbs didn’t see a big bump in rushing attempts — with Craig Reynolds scooping up 60% of the totes. However, Gibbs’ route participation skyrocketed to 67%.

This is huge for Gibbs’ outlook in the short term and it could also open the door to secure a larger portion of the passing game reps moving forward. Coaches have always trusted Montgomery in passing downs, but he has never been a special player in that regard.

Gibbs currently has a 33% TPRR and if he can up his route participation to 50% or higher, he could perform similarly to what we saw from Kamara in 2017.

Outlook: Gibbs UPGRADES to high-end RB2 status with Monty out. His profile offers mid-range RB1 upside if he capitalizes on the opportunity.”

You had better be absolutely LOADED to find a good reason to leave Gibbs on the bench this week. The rookie currently ranks sixth among all RBs in missed tackles forced per touch (0.3) among all backs with at least 15 combined carries and targets; don’t be surprised if the Alabama product breaks out in a major way on Sunday.

Colts at Ravens (BAL -8, 44)

Should fantasy managers fire up Zack Moss as an upside RB2?

It’s kind of hard not to after last week’s ridiculous usage. Overall, Moss posted 18-88-1 rushing and 4-19-0 receiving lines on an asinine 98% snap rate during the Colts’ victory over the Texans, looking legit good along the way.

Of course, being home favorites against the lowly Texans is quite different than being heavy underdogs ahead of a road trip to Baltimore. It’s possible the every-down role was more so a one-week deal than a sign of things to come.

Sep 17, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Indianapolis Colts running back Zack Moss (21) runs the ball during the second quarter against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-USA TODAY Sports

Then again, Deon Jackson was horrendous with his opportunities in Week 1, Evan Hull (knee, IR) is out of the picture, and Jonathan Taylor won’t be back until Week 5 at the earliest.

Hide your kids, hide your wife: Zack Moss is a recommended start in the year 2023 thanks to workhorse usage that is nearly unrivaled around the league. He’s my RB18 on the week ahead of guys like Joshua Kelley, Najee Harris and Javonte Williams thanks to little else than that sweet, sweet volume.

Has Michael Pittman worked his way back into weekly must-start territory?

Pretty much. Only eight WRs have earned 30% of their team’s targets and air yards among every WR with at least 10 targets this season:

• Puka Nacua (36% air yard share, 39% target share)
• Jakobi Meyers (41%, 38%)
• Davante Adams (45%, 35%)
• Tyreek Hill (46%, 33%)
• Chris Olave (40%, 32%)
• Pittman (37%, 32%)
• DeAndre Hopkins (33%, 30%)
• Garrett Wilson (47%, 30%)

Pittman’s 8-97-1 and 8-56-0 receiving lines have been godsends in full-PPR scoring — this is the sort of format where he’s especially locked in as an every-week upside WR2.

Even in standard and half-PPR formats: It’s hard not to be enamored with the target upside here. The potential absence of Anthony Richardson (concussion) could actually be a net positive for Pittman if it means the offense embraces less of a run-first approach.

The Ravens have allowed the sixth-most PPR points to opposing WRs through two weeks of action, as both the Texans and Bengals proved plenty capable of moving the ball through the air while attempting to close multi-score deficits. Pittman is locked in as my WR18 on the week ahead of bigger names like Tee Higgins, Amari Cooper and Chris Godwin.

Why won’t the mainstream media acknowledge Gus Edwards’ greatness?

I don’t know, but make no mistake about it: Fantasy Life is well aware of just how great the artist known as Gus Bus is at efficiently picking up yardage on the ground.

Here’s a list for you: Most career yards per carry among all RBs with at least 500 rush attempts in the Super Bowl era.

1. Bo Jackson (5.4)
2. Jamaal Charles (5.4)
3. NickChubb (5.3)
4. Gus Bus (5.2)

The former undrafted free agent has averaged 5.2, 5.3, 5.0, 5.0 and this year 5.2 yards per carry in his five career seasons. Sure, Edwards isn’t the flashiest juker in the world, and his straight-line speed won’t land him on the Next-Gen Stats fastest ball carriers leaderboard anytime soon, but the last time I checked none of those things count for extra points in fantasy football land.

Justice Hill (toe) is banged up, locking Edwards into a likely 15-plus touch role (at least) as a big-time home favorite vs. a Colts defense that was a bottom-eight unit in PPR points per game allowed to the position one year ago. Guys like Melvin Gordon and Kenyan Drake will see some usage as well; just realize Edwards profiles as a volume-based RB2 ahead of this rather great spot.

How wild is Zay Flowers’ early-season efficiency?

Rather awesome.

• PFF receiving grade: 76.9 (No. 16 among 60 WRs with 10-plus targets this season)
• Yards per route run: 2.26 (No. 16)
• Yards after the catch per reception: 6.2 (No. 9)
• Targets per route run: 24.2% (No. 23)

Flowers is earning his “Joystick” nickname with a position-high five missed tackles forced on receptions this season. He’s the No. 1 WR in this passing game, getting plenty of designed screens and pop passes on top of shot plays down the field.

Broncos at Dolphins (MIA -6.5, 48)

Is Russ… cooking again?

Things are smelling nice.

Here’s the thing: I HATE fantasy analysis that takes away a player’s good plays and concludes that they are actually bad… but last week’s QB3 finish was aided HEAVILY by the last-second Hail Mary prayer that was tipped around multiple times before being caught. Russ would have finished as just the QB17 without that prayer being answered, and his standing as the overall fantasy QB4 would drop to QB13 territory.

That said: Things are still looking up in this Sean Payton-led attack. The team’s 33 points on Sunday were their most in a game since Week 14, 2021, and Wilson already has five scores through the air — it took him until Week 6 to reach that mark last year.

One potential answer for the improvement: More play-action passes. Last year’s Broncos utilized play-action on just 21% of their dropbacks (the eighth-lowest mark in the NFL). Through two weeks Wilson has used play-action on 26.6% of his dropbacks — good for the 14h-highest mark in the league.

Don’t confuse Russ with someone who needs to be jammed into starting fantasy lineups, but his path to regaining some of his Seattle stardom certainly seems more clear than it did a few weeks ago.

Is it Raheem Mostert or Raheem Must-Start? (Sorry)

Mostert has now posted the following PPR fantasy finishes and snap rates in his last eight games as the Dolphins’ lead back with Jeff Wilson (finger/midsection, IR) out of the picture:

• PPR RB18, 73% snap rate
• RB13, 76%
• RB38, 65%
• RB7, 71%
• RB37, 62%
• RB15, 69%
• RB30, 72%
• RB5, 73%

Brian Robinson (18-87-2) just proved that this Broncos front-seven isn’t one to be overly concerned with in fantasy land; fire up Mostert as a legit borderline RB1 as long as the position remains so banged up as a whole and Wilson remains on the sideline.

Panthers at Seahawks (SEA -6, 42)

Is anyone really fantasy-viable inside of this BRUTAL Panthers offense?

Kind of Miles Sanders, but even then it’s pretty concerning how close Sanders (19.5 PPR points) is with Chuba Hubbard (18.9) when it comes to season-long fantasy production.

Sanders is certainly this backfield’s leader; just realize this is far more of a 60/40 split than the true workhorse role some were expecting.

Sanders is a fine enough low-end RB2 thanks to the likelihood that he racks up 15-plus combined carries and targets more weeks than not, unfortunately, the lack of scoring upside in this offense will make it tough to produce many upside RB1 spike weeks.

Bryce Young and this passing game simply haven’t been able to get anything going through two weeks. The rookie has been great when given the benefit of open throwing windows, but the problem is that those opportunities have been few and far between with a receiving core consisting of Adam Thielen, D.J. Chark, Jonathan Mingo and Terrace Marshall (Who would’ve thought?).

Go ahead and leave anyone involved in this Panthers game on your fantasy bench or on the waiver wire until scoring multiple TDs in a game feels more like the expectation and less of a pipe dream. Here’s to hoping things look better against the Seahawks’ lackluster secondary this Sunday.

What exactly is the plan for Jaxon Smith-Njigba?

Currently, JSN’s average target depth of 1.8 yards ranks dead last among 97 WRs with at least five targets. While fantasy managers will take all the designed gadget-esque touches they can get, it becomes a problem when they come at the expense of a full-time role in the offense.

LSN (64% route rate) is lagging far behind both DK Metcalf (82%) and Tyler Lockett (89%) despite leading the team in targets per route run (21%). It’s only two weeks, but this certainly isn’t ideal usage for the 2023 NFL Draft’s consensus No. 1 WR.

It’s impossible to trust Smith-Njigba as anything more than a low-floor WR5 at the moment until there’s evidence of Geno Smith and company involving him as much as the squad’s baller incumbent receivers.

Cowboys at Cardinals (DAL -12.5, 43.5)

Have the Cowboys featured Tony Pollard to a Zeke-esque level?

You bet.

The Cowboys have only asked Pollard to play more than 60% of the offense’s snaps on five occasions since drafting him in the fourth round of the 2019 NFL Draft. It’s not a coincidence that former bell-cow RB Ezekiel Elliott was injured or ruled out in all three instances

• Week 15, 2020: 12-69-2 rushing, 6-63-0 receiving, 90% snaps, PPR RB1
• Week 7, 2022: 12-83-0, 2-26-0, 65%, RB23
• Week 10, 2022: 22-115-1, 3-13-0, 87%, RB8
• Week 1, 2023: 14-70-2, 2-12-0, 64%, RB5
• Week 2, 2023: 25-72-0, 7-37-0, 64%, RB12

Continue to lock the Cowboys’ stud RB1 in as a top-five option at the position — if anything he has room for even more upside if his 2023 rushing efficiency (3.6 yards per carry at the comment) returns to his typical sky-high levels.

Do the Cardinals have a prayer at putting up points against the league’s best defense through two weeks?

It’s going to be tough, man.

One of my favorite team defense stats is “Havoc Rate” which takes the sum of a group’s tackles for a loss or no gain, forced fumbles, interceptions, pass deflections and pressures before dividing by total plays faced.

A really good havoc rate is usually anything above 50%. Nine defenses have pulled this off through two weeks of action:

1. Cowboys (80.2%)
2. Saints (59.1%)
3. Bills (58.7%)
4. Packers (58.1%)
5. Commanders (57.5%)
6. Browns (57%)
7. 49ers (54%)
8. Steelers (53.1%)
9. Eagles (51.1%)

Micah Parsons and company have made life absolute hell for both Daniel Jones and Zach Wlison this season, unleashing a combination of elite pressure (62.8%, No. 1) and sticky coverage (21.4% contested target rate, No. 1) that is quite literally unmatched around the league.

Credit to Joshua Dobbs for seriously making some GREAT plays in Week 2 — but this Cardinals offense is implied to score a week-low 15.5 points on Sunday for a reason.

Death, taxes, James Conner RB2-level production?

That seems to be the case. He’s now peeled off six consecutive RB2-level finishes since Kyler Murray (knee, IR) went down at the end of 2022.

• Week 14, 2022: 15-85-1 rushing, 6-29-0 receiving, PPR RB5 (95% snaps)
• Week 15, 2022: 16-63-1, 3-28-0, RB12 (91%)
• Week 16, 2022: 15-79-1, 7-41-0, RB4 (97%)
• Week 17, 2022: 16-79-0, 3-31-0, RB15 (55% — left early with a shin injury)
• Week 1, 2023: 14-62-0, 5-8-0, RB20 (84%)
• Week 2, 2023: 23-106-1, 0-0-0, RB15 (72%)

It might not always be pretty, but Conner is the true engine of this offense and the favorite to account for whatever points they manage to put up on a weekly basis.

The Cowboy haven’t made ANYTHING easy on opposing offenses this season; just realize it’s awfully tough to bench any RB poised to rack up 20-plus touches during any given week.

Bears at Chiefs (KC -12.5, 47.5)

Just how bad has the Justin Fields experience been this season?

Well, you know it’s bad when Field himself said he was “kind of robotic” during the Bears’ beatdown loss to the Buccaneers in Week 2.

Look, the passing numbers are horrific this season – and they were last year too.

The bigger problem in fantasy land is the lack of rushing usage. Fields’ 2023 scramble rate (9.4%) is pretty far removed from last year’s 15.8% mark, and the reigning 1,143-yard rusher has just *four* designed rush attempts through two weeks.

Fields (29.3) is just narrowly behind Lamar Jackson (29.4) in total fantasy points this season; he’s managed to somewhat save the day with garbage time production through two weeks of action. Still, it’d sure be a lot cooler if the Bears leaned into the ridiculous rushing talents of the 2021 NFL Draft’s No. 11 overall pick. 

Don’t expect anything to come easy ahead of Sunday afternoon’s road trip to Arrowhead, but I remain optimistic that Fields will get back into the upside QB1 fantasy conversation sooner rather than later because at some point this Bears offense must realize they don’t have a better avenue to go with the football than letting No. 1 do his thing on the ground.

Will the Chiefs break out of their mini slump in a major way on Sunday?

The Chiefs totaled just two games with 20 or fewer points in the 2018, 2019 and 2020 regular seasons combined. That means they scored 21-plus points in 46 of a possible 48 games.

Well, through two weeks of 2023… the Chiefs have failed to surpass 20 points even once. It made sense to blame Week 1’s relative dud on the lack of Travis Kelce, but last week’s 17-point effort against the Jaguars was a far cry from last season’s pair of 27-point efforts against the very same defense.

The biggest difference between this year and last: Explosive plays. Overall, the Chiefs rank just 15th in passing plays of 15-plus yards per attempt (12.2%) — way behind last year’s second-place 17% mark.

We can’t fully blame Mahomes, especially with his receivers not quite creating separation to the same extent this year. Per PFF, Chiefs pass-catchers collectively rank just 17th in percentage of targets to be considered “open” or “wide open” after ranking fifth in the NFL last season.

Here’s the good news: This Bears defense presents just about the best get-right spot imaginable for everyone involved:

• EPA allowed per play: +0.131 (No. 29)
• Points allowed: 65 (No. 31)
• Yards allowed per play: 5.9 (No. 30)
• Yards allowed per pass attempt: 9.4 (No. 31)

Fire up Mahomes and Kelce as their usual upside selves, while it’d make sense if some of these complementary RBs and WRs finally experience some booms of their own.

Steelers at Raiders (LV -1.5, 43)

Is there any hope for Kenny Pickett and this Steelers passing game?

Other than George Pickens’ one absurdly awesome play per week, it’s not looking good!

Pickett has thrown *nine* TDs in 14 career starts. He joins Zach Wilson as the only two QBs without double-digit TD passes while starting at least 10 games since the beginning of 2022.

It’s fair to cut Pickett some slack this year because, 1.) Facing the 49ers and Browns is objectively very tough for any QB to deal with, and 2.) Offensive coordinator Matt Canada.

Let’s just say offensive production hasn’t been easy to come by since Matt Canada took over as offensive coordinator in 2021:

• EPA per play: -0.53 (No. 24)
• Offensive TDs: 63 (No. 31)
• Successful play rate: 32.7% (No. 28)
• Average yards per play: 4.9 (No. 31)

So yeah, not great! It’d make sense if the going is a bit easier vs. the Raiders — it really can’t get much worse — but even then: Only Pickens is a recommended start out of this entire passing game.

Has Jaylen Warren been significantly better than Najee Harris?

Easily as a receiver, but give Harris credit for averaging a robust 4.3 yards after contact per carry on the season.

Fun fact: This Steelers offense has *0* net rushing yard before contact this season.

Seriously, what in the absolute f*ck was this?

Neither Harris nor Warren has been put into anything remotely close to a position to succeed this season. Checkdowns and swing passes to Warren have largely been the only consistent sign of life from either player.

Like with Pickett, easier matchups *should* lead to better production, but also like Pickett: It’s tough to have too much hope here regardless based on what we’ve seen so far this year.

Harris barely remains a top-24 option at the position, while Warren remains an injury to Harris away from being someone who managers can trust as anything more than a handcuff stash.

Is Josh Jacobs the best buy-low candidate in all of fantasy football?

I believe so!

Of course, the reason why he’s a buy-low candidate in the first place is because the 2022 first-team All-Pro has yet to rip off a run longer than his new jersey number.

Seven receptions for 74 scoreless yards have somewhat saved the day in fantasy land, but this certainly hasn’t been a great start for the man who totaled 2,053 yards and 12 scores a season ago.

It’s tough to blame the newfound lack of efficiency on defenses loading the box more against Jimmy Garoppolo: Jacobs’ rate of carries with eight-plus defenders in the box isn’t significantly higher in 2023 (25%) than it was in 2022 (21%).

Rather, both Jacobs *and* this offensive line simply struggled to instill their will against both the Broncos and (especially) the Bills:

• The Raiders’ average of 0.8 yards before contact per carry is tied for 20th through two weeks. Last year’s average of 1.5 yards ranked 14th.
• Jacobs average missed tackles forced per attempt (0.26 vs. 0.18) and yards after contact per carry (3.4 vs. 1.9) have cratered relative to what we saw last season.

Overall, only Justice Hill (36.8%) and Cam Akers (45.5%) have gained at least two yards after contact on a lower percentage of their carries than Jacobs (46.4%) among 37 qualified RBs.

And yet, Back-to-back road trips to Denver and Buffalo hardly made life easy on anyone involved in this offense, while it also makes sense that Jacobs started slow after not joining the team until mid-August. Ultimately, Jacobs’ utilization remains borderline erotic — he’s THE buy-low candidate at the moment.

Eagles at Buccaneers (PHI -5.5, 46)

Is D’Andre Swift RB1 szn here to stay?

The ex-Lions RB certainly staked his claim to more consistent usage during last week’s massive Thursday night performance. Swift could have posted even bigger numbers if Jalen Hurts didn’t vulture not one, but TWO goal-line scores after his RB got the offense all the way down to the 1-yard line.

Sep 14, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles running back D'Andre Swift (0) reacts in front of Minnesota Vikings cornerback Byron Murphy Jr. (7) after his run for a first down during the second quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

While that performance did come with Kenneth Gainwell (ribs) sidelined, Swift proved that Rashaad Penny and Boston Scott are non-factors in this competition. The reality that this backfield is condensed down to two parties means that Swift *should* be able to maintain RB3-level production at worst even if Gainwell remains heavily involved.

Swift will be a legit RB1 on Monday night if Gainwell remains sidelined, and more of a recommended RB2 type if not. Wait a week on the latter back’s post-Swift-blowup usage before overly trusting him again.

Is this the week A.J. Brown gets back to posting monster numbers?

You would like to think so. Of course, last week’s performance included a nullified 25-yard TD due to a hold, and a near miss on what would have been a 35-yard score on a play that sure seemed to be impacted by some potential DPI.

Ultimately, Brown’s status as one of the game’s most talented WRs has gone nowhere. This is a "squeaky wheel gets the grease" situation ahead of a Monday night matchup against a Buccaneers defense that didn’t have No. 1 CB Carlton Davis (toe) last week. They allowed the 11th-most PPR points per game allowed to the position last season and rank ninth after two weeks this year.

Don’t be surprised if/when Brown reminds everyone just how capable he is of booming in the box score under the bright Monday night lights.

Will this Buccaneers offense keep on baking?

The 2-0 Baker Mayfield-led Buccaneers haven’t exactly faced the toughest defenses in the Vikings (28th in scoring defense in 2022) and Bears (32nd), but credit where credit is due: This offense has found an early-season groove despite being written off by pretty much everyone before the season began.

Yes, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin make life a helluva lot easier for any QB.

Also yes, Mayfield himself deserves a lot of credit for the team’s hot start.

• EPA per dropback: +0.18 (No. 8 among 33 qualified QB
• PFF passing grade: 80.3 (No. 3)
• CPOE: +6.3% (No. 9)
• Passer rating: 105.1 (No. 6)
• Adjusted completion rate: 78.7% (No. 11)
• Yards per attempt: 7.4 (No. 10)

The Eagles certainly present a stiffer test, although Mac Jones (316-3-1) and Kirk Cousins (364-4-0) certainly didn’t have any problem booming against them in Weeks 1 and 2.

Fire up Evans as an upside WR2 at worst and Godwin as a recommended WR3 start. Mayfield isn’t quite in the recommended start QB2 conversion, but the man is certainly moving in the right direction after largely being written off by the entire NFL before this season.

Rams at Bengals (CIN -2, 43.5)

Should you start basically all key parties involved in this suddenly lethal Rams offense?

Pretty much:

• Puka Nacua has a full 10 additional targets over anyone else in the NFL He’s shattering one rookie record after another and unironically deserves WR1 treatment in Week 3.
• Kyren Williams posted an elite 97% snap rate in Week 2 with Cam Akers (trade rumors) seemingly on the way out. One of just four RBs with a route participation rate north of 70% this season: Williams has one of the most fantasy-friendly roles in the league if this usage sticks.
• Tutu Atwell is the WR16 in PPR points per game and hasn’t even had the sort of inevitable long TD that is always in play thanks to his speedy field-stretching ability.
• Matthew Stafford has more than passed the eye test on his way to throwing for more yards than anyone other than Tua Tagovailoa and Kirk Cousins.

Nacua’s route trees are absolutely absurd for a player who has 120 minutes of professional experience at this point. Both he and William are must-start options in fantasy leagues of all shapes and sizes, Atwell is an upside WR3, and Stafford is rising up the QB2 ranks in a hurry and could be knocking on the QB1 door by the time Cooper Kupp (hamstring, IR) is back in the picture.

Just how low is the floor in Cincy if Joe Burrow (calf) is sidelined?

Well, it can’t get much lower to be honest. Consider: Handing the ball to Joe Mixon (4.4 yards per carry) has been a more efficient means of moving the football than Burrow throwing the ball (4.2 yards per attempt) this season.

This has been a consensus bottom-five offense in football through two weeks of action:

• EPA per play: -0.223 (No. 28)
• EPA per pass: -0.298 (No. 28)
• Yard per play: 3.9 (No. 32)
• Yards per pass attempt: 4.2 (No. 32)

Early-week reports indicated that Burrow 1.) Is feeling better, and 2.) Will be playing through this calf issue for quite some time.

It’s awfully difficult to fade the big-name options from Cincy at WR and RB; just realize Burrow is presently playing like a shell of his best self — which is pretty far from ideal ahead of a Monday night date with Aaron Donald and company.

Sadly, Burrow is more of a borderline QB1 if active than someone who needs to be jammed into starting lineups if active this week. The QB31 (!) through two weeks, this is life for an injured, struggling QB with essentially zero rushing upside at the moment.