Fantasy Questions Week 5. Key Questions For Every Team.

Four weeks of NFL football are in the books — and I have some SERIOUS questions that will (hopefully) help us get the fantasy football rosters as right as possible with bye weeks finally upon us.

What follows are my 28 biggest questions (and potential answers) ahead of all the Week 5 action.

As always: It’s a great day to be great.

Jaguars at Bills. BUF -5.5, 48.5 O/U.

Has Evan Engram been one of the season’s pleasant early surprises?

You betcha. The recently #paid 29-year-old veteran really hasn’t missed through four weeks of action:

• Week 1: 5-49-0 (5 targets), half-PPR TE7
• Week 2: 6-57-0 (8), TE9
• Week 3: 7-67-0 (8), TE7
• Week 4: 7-59-0 (8), TE10

Overall, Engram is the league’s only player at the position to churn out top-10 fantasy finishes in each and every game this season. Even Travis Kelce (TE11 in Week 3) hasn’t managed to repeat that feat during his three games played.

Sunday’s matchup against the Bills isn’t exactly a blowup spot, although I wouldn’t bet against Engram racking up a fifth-straight top-10 finish against a secondary that has been absolutely ravaged with injuries recently.

Is it just me, or is Josh Allen running quite a bit less than usual?

Nope, this is in fact true: The Bills seem to have made a concentrated effort to reduce Allen’s overall rushing usage early in 2023.

• 2018: 53 rush yards per game, 7.4 rush attempts per game
• 2019: 31.9, 6.8
• 2020: 26.3, 6.4
• 2021: 44.9, 7.2
• 2022: 47.6, 7.8
• 2023: 26.5, 4

This has been particularly apparent near the goal line: Allen has just a single rush attempt inside the five-yard line through four weeks after racking up 11, eight and nine during the previous three seasons.

Allen is still good for the occasional dope scramble, and the Bills haven’t completely abandoned their designed-QB run game; just realize Allen is at his FANTASY best when combining his big-time passing with top-tier rushing production. It’s not a huge reason for concern — Allen is the overall fantasy QB2 this season after all — but his average of 22.6 fantasy points per game is his lowest mark since teaming up with Stefon Diggs back in 2020.

Titans at Colts. TEN- 1.5. 43

Just how fun has Anthony Richardson been this season?

Rather awesome! While the rookie is still undergoing some growing pains in the accuracy (dead last in completion rate over expected) and handling pressure (bottom-eight in allowing pressures to be converted to sacks) departments, Richardson was flashing all over the place during the Colts’ ill-fated comeback effort against the Rams in Week 4.

The artist known as Cam Jackson has racked up 10-plus carries in both of his full starts and would probably have at least three top-12 finishes to his name if his Week 2 wasn’t cut short by a concussion.

Up next is a Titans pass funnel defense that *should* lead to even more good times for Richardson and his pass-catchers in fantasy land. Fire up the rookie as a legit upside QB1.

How confident should fantasy managers be in Jonathan Taylor’s potential return to action?

The reality that JT practiced in full to start the week demonstrates that his ankle injury was more so a case of contract-ulitis than any sort of serious issue that could impact his 2023 performance.

That said: It’s unknown just how hard Taylor has been working at staying ready to go during his mess of an offseason. There’s no debating just how good the 2021 first-team All-Pro RB is when right, but who's to know if Taylor is: 1) Right, and 2.) Going to get a major opportunity in this offense.

Obviously having Taylor at RB would make all 32 NFL teams better, but the war of words between him and owner Jim Irsay could prove to be problematic. It’s hardly a guarantee that this turns into an Al Davis — Marcus Allen situation; just realize completely benching Zack Moss might not happen immediately due to the reality that the ex-Bills talent hasn’t exactly stunk up the joint when given the rock this season:

• PFF rush grade: 68.3 (No. 32 among 58 RBs with 15-plus carries this season)
• Yards per carry: 4.2 (No. 25)
• Missed tackles forced per carry: 0.29 (tied for No. 8)
• Yards after contact per carry: 2.5 (No. 33)

Again: Taylor is clearly the best man for the job, but the complicated nature of this situation could lead to more of a split backfield than fantasy managers would prefer — at least in the early going.

For at least this week, treat Taylor more as a mid-tier RB2 as opposed to someone who needs to be forced into starting lineups of all shapes and sizes.

Texans at Falcons. ATL -1.5. 41.5

Is it time to crown C.J. Stroud as the next great young QB?

Well, he’s certainly been balling out recently, racking up QB13, QB12 and QB10 fantasy finishes while throwing for more yards (970) than anyone in football over the past three weeks of action.

Equally as impressive has been the performance of offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, who has teamed up with Stroud to overcome the league’s single most banged-up offensive line. This is a top-three offense in yards after the catch per completion alongside the Dolphins and Chiefs.

The Texans also boast the fourth-lowest deep pass rate in the league: They are clearly playing to their strengths so far — which makes sense!

Ultimately, Stroud and company boast the league’s seventh-highest explosive pass play rate and rank third in yards per attempt. The 2023 NFL Draft’s No. 2 overall pick isn’t just playing well relative to rookie-year expectations — Stroud has been working as one of the league’s most efficient passers regardless of experience through the first four weeks of 2023.

Kudos to the Falcons for having allowed just 127, 140, 243 (Lions) and 195 passing yards this season; conquering this unit would be yet another feather in Stroud’s hat.

Panthers at Lions. DET -10. 44

Are we absolutely positive Miles Sanders is the best RB in Carolina?

Sanders (groin) has certainly been playing through some pain this year, but either way he’s clearly been the far less efficient back on the ground compared to Chuba Hubbard through four weeks of action:

• PFF rush grade: Sanders (49.9), Hubbard (80.6)
• Yard per carry: Sanders (2.9), Hubbard (4.6)
• Yards after contact per carry: Sanders (2.1), Hubbard (4)
• Missed tackles forced per carry: Sanders (0.06), Hubbard (0.35)
• Explosive run play rate: Sanders (7.4%), Hubbard (15.4%)

Per Next-Gen Stats, Hubbard (38.5%) has surprisingly had to deal with eight-plus defenders in the box on a far higher rate of carries than Sanders (7.4%). They also attribute Hubbard (+0.7, 9th-best mark) as having created more rushing yards over expectation than Sanders (-0.83, 8th-worst mark).

Aug 12, 2023; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Carolina Panthers running back Miles Sanders (6) during the second half against the New York Jets at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

Credit to Sanders for averaging slightly higher marks in yards per route run (0.96 vs. 0.93) and yards per reception (5.4 vs. 5.2) compared to Hubbard, but then again those are hardly game-changing numbers.

A mix of Sanders’ injury, game-script and likely performance led to the ex-Eagles RB posting season-low marks in snap rate (43%), team rush attempt share (46%) and route participation percentage (28%); he’s more of a meh RB3 than usual despite the bye weeks ahead of Sunday’s road matchup against Aidan Hutchinson and company.

Should Jahmyr Gibbs managers just roll into a ball and cry?

The lack of usage for Gibbs has led to fantasy managers clawing their eyes out in two of our four Thursday night contests thus far. Overall, the rookie is just the RB27 in expected PPR points per game (12.3), which isn’t all that far removed from backup Steelers RB Jaylen Warren (11.3).

Yes, the Lions are sitting pretty at 3-1 while averaging the eighth-most points per game in the NFL (26.5). There’s no reason to criticize head coach Dan Campbell or offensive coordinator Ben Johnson for continuing to perform their respective jobs at very high levels.

Also yes, it’s reasonable for fantasy managers to be all kinds of depressed about the early-season production here given:

1. Gibbs was regularly taken off the board in the third round.
2. Presumed 1B Lions RB David Montgomery has already scored five TDs and is dominating overall utilization.
3. Gibbs’ early touch counts pale in comparison to fellow recent first-round picks at the position.
4. The rookie has made the most out of his opportunities, posting top-20 marks in yards per carry (4.6, 12th), yards after contact per attempt (3.1, 16th) and missed tackles forced (0.21, 19th)
5. while also earning targets at the fifth-highest rate in the league (27.9%).

Despite these early-season struggles, I believe Gibbs is a great buy-low candidate at the moment. His early-season role has admittedly be meh, but the Lions’ willingness to hand him a robust 17 carries on a 60% snap rate with Montgomery sidelined in Week 3 shows that they don’t necessarily view the 2023 NFL Draft’s No. 12 overall pick as a one-dimensional pass-down back.

This Lions offense is really good, they have run the ball more than anyone other than the 49ers, and Gibbs has proven to be good at football at the professional level: At some point these variable are going to collide in the favor of the Lions’ rookie talent, even if Montgomery continues to vulture everything in sight along the way.

Ravens at Steelers. BAL -4. 38

Should fantasy managers step aboard the Gus Bus in Week 5?

The return of Justice Hill in Week 4 didn’t lead to split usage with Gus Edwards. Rather, the No. 6 RB in yards per carry (5.1) during the Super Bowl era dominated the backfield’s snap share (71%), rush attempt share (50%) and even ran a route on a robust 56% of Lamar Jackson’s dropbacks.

It makes sense that extremely positive game-script against the Dorian Thompson-Robinson-led Browns had a major impact on this utilization, although that isn’t exactly poised to change on Sunday against a Steelers team that carries a brutal -38 point differential — the eighth-lowest mark in the NFL.

I’m not saying you need to start Gus no matter what, but he’s more of a recommended start than usual in the RB3-range of things. My RB28 on the week, I would start Edwards ahead of guys like Najee Harris, Samaje Perine and A.J. Dillon among others.

Can Steelers nation stop blaming Najee Harris for everything?

As someone who drafted Jalen Warren more than any other RB in best ball land throughout the offseason: I would love to sit here and point out that Harris has been playing terribly and deserves to be benched for his second-year backup.

But that’s simply not what is going on. Harris has actually been playing the best football of his career as a pure rusher:

The main two problems in fantasy land are the utter lack of scoring opportunities inside of this abysmally schemed Matt Canada-led “attack,” as well as the Warren holding a commanding 22 to eight lead in the target department.

Overall, Harris has gone from the RB2 (19.7) in expected PPR points per game as a rookie, to the RB12 (14.9) in 2022, to somehow just the RB43 (8.4) through four weeks of 2023.

One could blame Harris for his past underachieving negatively influencing his present day workload; just realize the brutal lack of production here is far more so due to the enhanced usage of Warren, poor performance of PFF’s sixth-lowest-graded offensive line in run blocking and the Kenny Pickett experience than a true indictment on the third-year Alabama product.

Sadly, it’s unclear if this offensive environment as a whole is going to be fixed for the better anytime soon. Pickett (knee) has avoided serious injury, but also isn’t guaranteed to, you know, be better moving forward.

Throw in head coach Mike Tomlin’s confirmation that nothing is changing at offensive coordinator or with play-calling responsibilities, and expecting a turnaround from Harris falls more into the “hope” than “expectation” department.

Saints at Patriots. NE -1. 40

Was the Alvin Kamara experience a helluva PPR drug in Week 4

You bet. While the Saints ranked dead last in RB targets Weeks 1-3 (8), their 15 alone in Week 4 easily led the NFL. This change in philosophy was due to two key factors:

• Alvin Kamara returned from his three-game suspension
• Derek Carr played through a shoulder injury

Kamara probably won’t dominate pass-game usage to this large of an extent moving forward, although his underlying usage was more than good enough for future RB1 production should this offense emerge as an even halfway decent scoring unit.

• Snap rate: 75%
• Rush attempt share: 61%
• Route rate: 70%

Sadly, the latter point about the Saints ideally boasting a more prolific scoring offense moving forward is far from guaranteed to come to fruition. Overall, the Saints have gone a league-high 10 straight games without scoring more than 21 points. They are averaging the fifth-fewest yards per play on the season and rank as a bottom-10 offense in rush yards before contact per carry.

Kamara won’t need many trips to the end zone to put up RB1-level production if he can maintain this sort of near every-down usage, but it’d certainly be a lot cooler if Carr and company can move the ball a bit more consistently moving forward.

What RBs have CONSISTENTLY churned out the most yards after contact?

While I enjoy the idea of rushing yards after contact, the metric doesn’t always identify the true down-to-down grinders due to the reality that big-play artists can break a tackle at the line of scrimmage and then rack up all sorts of additional yards after contact.

Presenting: The league’s best RBs at gaining *at least* two yards after contact per carry (minimum 25 carries):

1. Nick Chubb (82%, sigh)
2. Bijan Robinson (81%)
3. Kyren Williams (80%)
4. Chuba Hubbard (77%)
5. Khalil Herbert (76%)

Shoutout to Herbert specifically here. The third-year RB took over the RB1 role in Week 4 with elite marks in snap shares (79%) and route participation (63%).

And guess what: He looked good doing it.

On the other side of things, just five RBs have failed to gain at least two yards after contact on even 55% of their rush attempts this season:

• D’Andre Swift (54%)
• Brian Robinson (54%)
• Dalvin Cook (53%)
• Cam Akers (52%)
• Rhamondre Stevenson (50%)

Fantasy managers expected Stevenson to lose some rushing work to Ezekiel Elliott, but they probably didn’t expect the ex-Cowboys RB to hold such a commanding edge in the yards per carry department (4.1 vs. 2.7).

Throw in career-worst marks in yards per route run (0.85) and PFF receiving grade (51.7), and it’s not exactly easy to see a MAJOR shift in fantasy performance from Stevenson without an unexpected boom from Mac Jones and the league’s 30th-ranked scoring offense.

Giants at Dolphins. MIA -11.5. 48.5

Is there any hope left for Darren Waller?

Things certainly aren’t looking great. While head coach Brian Daboll said “the progression, the pressure, the read” prevented the Giants from getting Waller the football more last Monday night, some of the footage from Week 4 was truly damning.

Ultimately, Waller has just 15 receptions for 153 scoreless yards after four weeks of action. He has indeed led the team in targets with 23, but the discrepancy hasn’t been as big as expected compared to complementary WRs Parris Campbell (21) and Darius Slayton (20).

The Dolphins are one of only nine defenses allowing double-digit half-PPR points per game to opposing TEs, but even then it’s hard to rationalize an imminent turnaround with anything other than “it can’t get much worse.”

The sad state of the TE position leaves Waller as a consensus top-seven option at the position even after this horrid start to the season; just realize his upside has never looked lower inside of the Giants’ 32nd-ranked scoring offense.

What RBs have done the best job consistently making good stuff happen on their own?

It’s tough to always judge who the NFL’s best RBs are because of the obvious impact that offensive lines and QBs have on their overall performance.

This is why I like to use missed tackles forced per carry and yards after contact per carry to help isolate RB rushing performance independent of the rest of the offense. Still not perfect — sometimes missed tackles forced are more indicative of a rushing style than straight-up added utility — but hey, it’s something!

Ideally, we’ll see a group of RBs in the upper right portion of the graph to denote the league’s very best rushers of the football … wait, what in the absolute hell is that, De’Von Achane?!

The Dolphins’ electric rookie RB is somehow the overall RB3 in half-PPR scoring despite essentially playing two games. Look for Achane to continue to push for 15-plus combined carries and targets on a weekly basis as a clear-cut top-two RB inside the NFL’s most explosive offense; he needs to be in fantasy lineups of all shapes and sizes.

Note that Jeff Wilson (midsection/finger) wasn’t activated from IR this week.

Eagles at Rams. PHI -4.5. 50.5

How concerned should Dallas Goedert fantasy managers be?

You know things are going bad when the head coach is forced to reconfirm that someone is still a big part of the offense.

From Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni:

“Trust me, I promise you, he’s still part of the plan of wanting us to get him the football. We need to get him the football. Sometimes there’s a dry spell in there, too, that’s what’s kind of going on right now."

And what a dry spell it has been. 0-0-0, 6-22-0, 5-41-0 and most-recently 2-25-0 receiving lines leave Goedert outside the position’s top-36 performers in fantasy land despite his status as the overall TE2 in total routes run.

Sadly, this might just be what life is like more weeks than not with Jalen Hurts focusing his attention on A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith more than ever before. Overall, only the Raiders (63%) have targeted their top-two WRs on a higher percentage of pass attempts than the Eagles (58%) through four weeks.

Unlike with Pitts, there’s reason to believe Goedert will experience more good days ahead. There’s no reason to believe the 28-year-old veteran is suddenly bad at football; it makes sense that this Jalen Hurts-led attack has been a bit wobbly out of the gate while adjusting to life without current Colts head coach Shane Steichen.

Goedert probably won’t ever get the sort of target share to help him work as the sort of top-five fantasy option that he very well might be in real life, but a climb back into the position’s low-end TE1 range is well within his range of possibilities considering his overall track record of success inside of an offense that *should* even out the targets a bit more in a larger sample.

What does the potential return of Cooper Kupp (hamstring) mean for Puka Nacua?

Head coach Sean McVay channeled his inner Ron Burgundy while explaining that while Kupp was listed as limited for Wednesday’s practice: The reigning, defending, two-time overall WR1 in PPR points per game would be undergoing a regular session with no limitations.

How well Kupp holds up remains to be seen, but don’t get it twisted: He needs to be in fantasy lineups of all shapes and sizes if healthy enough to suit up ahead of any matchup.

The better question comes down to Nacua, who joins Justin Jefferson and Julio Jones as the only WRs with 500-plus yards in the first four weeks of the season over the past 10 years. With PPR WR9, WR5, WR36 and WR4 finishes to his name this season: Nacua is also looking like someone who fantasy managers should NOT put anywhere near their bench — even if there’s a fire.

Oct 1, 2023; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua (17) catches and runs for a touchdown with the ball while Indianapolis Colts safety Julian Blackmon (32) defends in the overtime at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

Ultimately, the first nine weeks of the 2021 season could give us some level of intel into how this partnership could work out. Nacua is wearing Robert Woods’ old number 17 anyway — now let’s find out if he can replicate the WR1-worthy production that the artist known as Bobby Trees pulled off alongside Kupp before suffering a season-ending knee injury during that Super Bowl run.

• Kupp in Weeks 1-9, 2021: 74-1,019-10 (103 targets), PPR WR1, WR1 per game
• Woods: 45-556-4 (69 targets), WR12, WR23 per game

I’m blessed enough to have Kupp and Nacua on the same roster in several leagues and fully plan on starting both with confidence against an Eagles defense that has allowed the fifth-most half-PPR points per game to opposing WRs this season.

Bengals at Cardinals. CIN -3. 44.5

Just how horrific is this Bengals offense at the moment?

Absolutely atrocious:

• Points per game: 12.3 (No. 31)
• EPA per play: -0.214 (No. 28)
• Yards per play: 4 (No. 32)
• Yards per pass attempt: 4.8 (No. 32)

The corresponding fantasy production has been rather abysmal for pretty much everyone involved, with Joe Burrow himself literally scoring *Johnny Manziel meme* zero TDs in all but one game this season.

It’s hard to imagine things remaining THIS bad as Burrow (calf) hopefully gets healthier, but expecting a full return to 2021 and 2022 heights might be wishful thinking in the near term — especially with overqualified No. 2 WR Tee Higgins (fractured rib) now banged up as well.

Back-to-back theoretically winnable matchups – when healthy – against the Cardinals and Seahawks are followed by a Week 7 bye and then TOUGH spots against the beastly 49ers and Bills defenses.

Sadly, there appears to be a decent chance we don’t see Burrow and company truly humming again until mid-November at the earliest.

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Jets at Broncos. DEN -1.5. 43

Just how promising was Zach Wilson’s performance last Sunday night?

Things actually went quite well! Let’s hold off on *best Dennis Green impression* crowning his ass after throwing for 245 yards and a pair of TDs, but that’s certainly one helluva improvement after three consecutive performances with 170 or fewer passing yards.

Some key differences in the performance:

• Average time to throw: Wilson took over three seconds to get the ball out of his hand on average in each of Weeks 1 to 3, but his 2.73-second time to throw in Week 4 was easily a season-low mark.
• Early-down pass-play rate: The Jets took the training wheels off to a large extent in Week 4, as Wilson's 66.7% pass play rate on first and second down was nearly 10% higher than his 58.6% mark in Weeks 1 to 3.
• Play-action usage: The Jets utilized play-action on just 23.5% of Wilson's attempts in Weeks 1 to 3, but bumped this number up to 36.7% last Sunday night.

Wilson surprisingly comes in as PFF's fifth-highest graded passer when releasing the ball in fewer than 2.5 seconds, but falls to 33rd among 36 qualified QBs when holding on to the ball for longer.

Let’s not get too carried away and call Wilson a viable streaming option in fantasy land just yet, but at a minimum No. 1 WR Garrett Wilson is locked and loaded as a recommended WR2 start ahead of this week’s matchup against the lowly Broncos.

Can Breece Hall get a f*cking three-down role already?

First of all: Chill out.

Second of all: Yes. Head coach Robert Saleh told reporters Wednesday that the team will not be limiting Hall’s workload any longer. This is especially convenient news ahead of a matchup with the Broncos’ league-worst defense in pretty much everything — including fantasy points per game allowed to opposing RBs.

*LeBron voice* It’s about damn time. Don’t get me wrong: Kudos to the Jets for not overly rushing things for their stud 22-year-old back. There was no reason to overly pile on touches in Hall’s first four games since returning from 2022’s devastating season-ending knee injury.

The “annoyance” is more so simply because Hall has been so good with his opportunities early in 2022:

• Yards per carry: 6.5 (No. 1 among 35 RBs with 30-plus carries)
• Yards after contact per carry: 6.2 (No. 1)
• Missed tackles forced per carry: 0.22 (No. 14)

Note that teammate Dalvin Cook’s average of 2.5 yards per carry is good for dead last in this sample. Sheesh.

Some have pointed out that Hall’s numbers are far worse when removing his season-opening 26- and 83-yard runs from the equation, but I’m not in the business of “take away a player’s good plays and they are actually bad” analysis. There was nothing overly fluky about either of those runs; great players should make these sort of great plays on occasion.

It was a frustrating September, but at long last Hall managers: Start your stud RB with confidence this week.

Is Jaleel McLaughlin actually going to be a thing in fantasy land?

If Javonte Williams (hip) is going to miss time: Kind of?

The pint-sized 23-year-old former undrafted free agent admittedly only has 13 rush attempts to his name this season, but it’s hard to ignore just how much additional juice McLaughlin has provided relative to Williams and Samaje Perine:

• PFF rush grade: McLaughlin (82.0), Williams (55.6), Preine (49.6)
• Missed tackles forced per carry: McLaughlin (0.5), Williams (0.13), Perine (0.06)
• Yards per carry: McLaughlin (6.4), Williams (3.7), Perine (3.7)
• Yards after contact per carry: McLaughlin (4.6), Williams (2.4), Perine (2)

While Perine (46% snaps) played ahead of McLaughlin (33%) last week with Williams limited to just eight total snaps, the Broncos wound up feeding McLaughlin more carries (7 vs. 6) and targets (3 vs. 2) than the ex-Bengals veteran.

Sunday’s matchup against the Jets isn’t ideal, but McLaughlin is deserving of top-36 status thanks to his performance thus far and upside for 15-plus combined carries and targets.

Has Russell Wilson been legit much better this season?

You bet! The longtime Seahawks signal-caller has vastly improved his PFF pass grade (77.6 vs. 64.5), yards per attempt (7.7 vs. 7.3) and adjusted completion percentage (78.6% vs. 74.1%) alike.

At this point we don’t even have to discuss Wilson’s relative advantages to his former self. The No. 2 QB in completion percentage over expected (+8.4%) and eighth-ranked passer in EPA per dropback (+0.15): Russ has largely been cooking all season.

Consider: Russ has already thrown nine TDs this year — a feat that took him until Week 14 (!) to complete in 2022.

Sadly (for fantasy), Wilson has been spreading the ball around too much for managers to feel overly confident about any one individual pass-catcher; just realize his standing at the fantasy QB9 through four weeks of action hasn’t been a fluke.

Sunday’s matchup against the Sauce Gardner-led Jets should be an especially good test considering they’ve brought the worst out of both Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes this season.

Chiefs at Vikings. KC -4. 52.5

Are there any RBs with particularly tasty upcoming schedules to take advantage of?

Well, Chiefs RB Isaih Pacheco has the single easiest Weeks 5-9 schedule in terms of half-PPR fantasy points per game allowed to the position.

• Week 5: Vikings (9th)
• Week 6: Broncos (32nd)
• Week 7: Chargers (24th)
• Week 8: Broncos (32nd)
• Week 9: Dolphins (25th)

While it hasn’t been all breezy for Pacheco this season, the man who runs like the ground took everything he ever worked for is fresh off his best performance and utilization of the young season.

This will always be a pass-first offense with Patrick Mahomes under center; just realize Pacheco's weekly 15-ish touch workload has the potential to go a lot further than usual over the course of these cozy upcoming matchups.

How ridiculously consistent has Justin Jefferson been this season?

Oh you know, he’s just the only WR to post top-24 finishes in every single game this season. Hell, Jefferson hasn’t finished worse than the WR12 during any individual week; Puka Nacua (3) is the only other WR to accomplish that feat more than twice so far in 2023.

On pace for a video game-esque 140 catches, 2,308 yards and 13 TDs: Jefferson is well on his way to repeating as fantasy’s overall No. 1 WR.

Get your popcorn ready for Sunday afternoon’s home date with the Chiefs, who deserve credit for allowing the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing WRs this season.

Cowboys at 49ers. SF -3.5. 45

Is this Cowboys offense having some serious problems in the red zone?

Abso-lutely. Nobody was better than the Cowboys at punching the football into the end zone upon crossing their opponent’s 20-yard line in 2022 (72.4% TD rate), but they rank just 30th (38.1%) in this very same metric four weeks into 2023.

Note that the Chargers — now led by former Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore — have improved upon their 16th-place standing (54.8%) from last season up to sixth (68.8%) this year.

It’s tough to call this an Ezekiel Elliott problem. Overall, Pollard has converted nine of his 12 carries (75%) with one-to-two yards to go — tied for the 15th-best mark among 33 RBs with five such carries.

The real problem here has been the passing game. While there are obviously many parties involved with any single pass attempt, the responsibility typically falls on the QB at the end of the day, and Dak Prescott simply hasn’t produced in an efficient manner inside the 10-yard line.

Among 27 QBs with five-plus pass attempts inside the 10-yard line:

• PFF pass grade: 25.2 (No. 26)
• Passer rating: 60.9 (No. 23)
• TD rate: 11% (tied for No. 25)
• Completion rate: 38.9% (No. 21)
• Adjusted completion rate: 53.3% (tied for No. 17)

These issues haven’t overly mattered during the Cowboys’ three blowout wins this season, but failure to make a bigger habit of scoring six points instead of three to cap off long drives will inevitably prove to be detrimental when the going gets tougher … like in Sunday night’s matchup against the 49ers.

Pollard and CeeDee Lamb remain the only must-start options in this offense at the moment, although TE Jake Ferguson has the looks of a potential TE1 down the stretch if his early-season utilization means anything.

What have the best defenses been in terms of havoc rate?

My favorite defensive team statistic is havoc rate, which takes the sum of every group’s total pressures, forced fumbles, interceptions, pass breakups and tackles for loss or no gain.

Basically, everything that causes “havoc” on a football field.

Just eight defenses have managed to create some sort of havoc on at least 50% of their opponent’s snaps this season:

• Cowboys (67%)
• Browns (57%)
• Bills (57%)
• Lions (54%)
• Eagles (52%)
• Seahawks (51%)
• 49ers (50%)
• Ravens (50%)

On the other side of things, eight units haven’t even managed to create some chaos on more than 40% of their defensive opportunities through four weeks:

• Colts (40%)
• Bengals (40%)
• Falcons  (39%)
• Bears (38%)
• Panthers (37%)
• Vikings (35%)
• Cardinals (34%)
• Broncos (33%)

You can view the full list of every team’s havoc rate here.

Is Christian McCaffrey the biggest cheat code in fantasy?

Pretty much. Currently one of five players in NFL history averaging north of 30 PPR points per game in a single season, CMC is the only RB to rack off four consecutive top-12 finishes to start the season.

His fantasy finishes since joining the 49ers are truly NSFW:

Sunday night’s matchup against the Cowboys presents one of the only teams to somewhat contain CMC, as he was limited to 10-35-1 rushing and 6-22-0 receiving lines in the NFC Divisional Round last season.

Of course, even Micah Parsons and company aren’t enough to budge McCaffrey off the top of the RB ranks — his ceiling will be higher than ever if Elijah Mitchell (knee) remains sidelined.

Packers at Raiders. GB -1

Does Jordan Love struggle when forced off of his first read?

On the one hand, I’m a fan of some parts of the Jordan Love experience. He has the requisite mobility and arm talent to make all kinds of cool throws, and his league-high 10.5-yard average target depth demonstrates the reality that he’s the opposite of a check-down Charlie.

On the other hand, there are some serious red flags here. Love ranks dead last in both raw completion rate (56.1%) and adjusted completion percentage (62.7%) among 34 QBs with at least 50 dropbacks this season. He’s one of just seven QBs with a completion percentage over expected of negative 5% or worse.

Nov 27, 2022; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) throws a pass against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Overall, Love is averaging a respectable 7.7 yards per attempt on a (still bad) 61.9% adjusted completion rate when throwing to his first designated read, but nobody has had a worse combination in these marks (2.4, 52.6%) when forced to look beyond the first read.

Here’s to hoping now-healthy difference-making playmakers Aaron Jones and Christian Watson make life easier on Love when he’s forced to make something happen outside the design of the play — because he could emerge as THE streamer QB to get you through an upcoming bye week if so.

Most of the top QBs in terms of having the easiest Weeks 5-9 schedule in fantasy points against are already owned in a majority of leagues, but there is something to be said for the stretch that Love is about to go on:

• Week 5: Raiders (25th in fantasy points per game allowed to opposing QBs)
• Week 6: Bye
• Week 7: Broncos (32nd)
• Week 8: Vikings (24th)

I’m also a big fan of Matthew Stafford’s potential to finally rack up some TD passes over the next two weeks in prime matchups against the Eagles (27th) and Cardinals (26th).

What are the best streaming DSTs for the next month?

I took every team’s ranking in DST points allowed this season and applied it to the next five weeks to get an idea of who managers can rely on for an extended stretch. The below chart references these ranks and is ordered from the easiest (blue) to hardest (red) upcoming stretches.

A specific look at our top-three DSTs, which are each conveniently available in leagues of most shapes and sizes at the moment (especially the Colts and Raiders):

• Commanders Weeks 5-9: Bears, Falcons, Giants, Eagles, Patriots
• Colts: Titans, Jaguars, Browns, Saints, Panthers
• Raiders: Packers, Patriots, Bears, Lions, Giants

The latter two squads can actually buy you an extra week as well, with both the Colts (Patriots) and Raiders (Jets) also having streamable Week 10 matchups to their credit.

Is Josh Jacobs’ workload any different than last year?

It’s actually a little bit more fantasy friendly considering the increase in pass-game opportunities! 

Jacobs’ 2022 numbers and 17-game pace for 2023 are as follows:

• Rush attempts: 340 (2022) vs. 264 (2023)
• Targets: 64 (2022) vs. 106 (2023)
• Snap rate: 74.5% (2022) vs. 76.2% (2023)

Up next is a Packers defense that is one of just five units allowing 25-plus half-PPR points per game to opposing RBs. Fire up the 2022 first-team All-Pro RB as the top-10 option at the position you drafted him as this offseason.