Fantasy Questions: The 12 Biggest Questions for Super Wild Card Weekend.

It’s Wild Card Weekend everyone. Let’s keep our heads on a swivel out there and make some well-informed fantasy and betting decisions to provide food for our families and loved ones. Cool? Cool.

Presenting: 12 questions ahead of “Super” Wild Card Weekend mostly centered around every non-bye playoff team’s biggest potential mismatches for better or worse. Check out this thread for the full charts used to accomplish this very task.

Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans (CLE -2.5, 44.5)

Will Joe Flacco stay hot against this suspect Texans secondary?

The Joe Flacco stuff was a bit funny at first. He led the team to a couple of wins while posting solid counting numbers thanks to high-end volume, so who cares if he had a worse EPA per dropback than Zach Wilson after his first three starts?

Then something funny happened: Flacco started playing a lot like one of the better QBs in the league.

• Week 13: -0.173 EPA per play (26th)
• Week 14: -0.028 (17th)
• Week 15: -0.371 (31st)
• Week 16: +0.416 (5th)
• Week 17: +0.169 (15th)

Flacco carries the position’s fifth-best EPA + CPOE composite score over the final three weeks of the season and the 19th-highest mark from Week 13 to 18 overall. In English: Mr. Elite has been incredibly accurate on his way to leading one of the game’s most efficient passing attacks over his last eight quarters of football, but the performance as a whole hasn’t been all that elite (sorry).

Of course, Flacco’s best performance came against this very defense back in Week 16 when he threw for 368 yards and a trio of scores. Note that one of his two INTs was simply an end zone heave with time expiring before halftime.

Still, that game highlighted just how different of a unit this Texans defense is without No. 3 overall pick Will Anderson in the picture. He’s still banged up with an ankle injury — as are a bunch of fellow defensive linemen — but the return of the potential defensive rookie of the year would certainly be appreciated against a Browns offensive line that has dealt with more injuries to their offensive tackles than just about any team out there.

The expected return of Amari Cooper (heel) should certainly help against the same group that he torched for 265 yards and a pair of scores.

Ultimately, it makes sense that the Browns are implied to score the fourth-most points of the Wild Card Round — they exploited this group last time out and have been willing to unleash the passing attack ever since turning the offense over to Flacco in Week 13.

Are the Texans ready to truly unleash C.J. Stroud and this passing attack?

That’s been the one holdup over the second half of the season. Overall, the Texans have posted a dropback rate over expected north of 0% just twice in their last eight games.

Week 18’s win over the Colts demonstrated C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins are more than capable of making the most out of their limited opportunities, but it’d probably make sense to put this game on the back of their rookie QB as opposed to … Devin Singletary.

And that’s with all due respect to Singletary (I said with all due respect!), but Stroud hasn’t just been a great rookie: He was one of the league’s more efficient throwers of the football by more advanced metrics than not in 2023:

• EPA per dropback: +0.12 (tied for No. 8)
• CPOE: +0.2% (No. 19)
• PFF pass grade: 79.4 (No. 14)
• Passer Rating: 102 (No. 5)
• Yards per attempt: 8.2 (No. 4)

It’d be a lot cooler if guys like Tank Dell (leg, IR), Noah Brown (back) and Robert Woods (hip) were healthier going into Sunday, but at least Nico has proven capable of working as one of the game’s best receivers.

Seriously. Collins’ season-long 80-1,297-8 receiving line doesn’t even do his actual per-route efficiency justice.

The primary concern is whether or not Stroud and company can avoid making too many negative plays. Nobody caused more down-to-down havoc than the Browns this season, as Myles Garrett and company have found a way to swing many games on their way to registering the single-best mark in EPA allowed per play.

The Browns join the Texans as defenses not exactly dealing with pristine health at the moment, but it remains tough to expect too many fireworks against what was consistently one of the game’s very best defenses throughout the entirety of 2023.

Favorite bet: Browns TE David Njoku has been on an absolute tear in recent weeks, turning in 6-91-2, 10-104-1, 6-44-1 and 6-134-0 receiving lines from Weeks 14 to 17. While the 44-yard performance did come against this group, Houston was one of just five defenses to allow over 1,000 yards to opposing TEs during the 2023-24 regular season. I LOVE Njoku’s alternate receiving props, particularly 80-plus yards at +240 odds over at DraftKings Sportsbook.

You can tail the Njoku line at DraftKings AND get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when you sign up for your new account below and place your first bet of at least $5!

Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs (KC -4, 44)

Can a fully healthy Dolphins offense overcome this stifling Chiefs secondary?

It’s hard to overstate just how good the league’s second-ranked scoring defense has been this season against the pass. Overall, the Vikings (259 passing yards) and Packers (253) are the only offenses to clear even 250 yards against this unit.

That includes the Dolphins (175 in Week 9), who have struggled to shoot off too many fireworks in their battles against top-10 defenses in EPA allowed per pass play.

• Tua vs. top-10 defenses (9 games): 7.4 YPA, 67.3% completion rate, 246.4 pass yards per game, 1.3 pass TD per game, 1 INT per game
• Defenses ranked 15th or worse (8): 9.3 YPA, 71.5% completion rate, 300.8 pass yards per game, 2.1 pass TD per game, 0.6 INT per game

Of course, some of those matchups came without the services of top WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Both are tentatively expected to be in their usual full-time roles come Saturday night, as is RB Raheem Mostert.

The other issue is the cold weather involved. Per Bet MGM’s John Ewing, the Dolphins are 0-9 straight up and 2-7 against the spread in cold weather games (<40 degrees) since 2017. Let’s just say the temperature won’t be getting close to above-freezing at Arrowhead this Saturday night.

Usually wind is the weather effect to be most concerned about when projecting passing attacks, but these sort of extreme freezing temperatures can also prove to be problematic.

It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Dolphins perhaps re-embrace their Week 9 strategy but (hopefully) without allowing the Chiefs to score a defensive TD. That game plan featured one of just five games all season that the Dolphins posted a negative dropback rate over expected as well as their only game with a pace that was considered slow.

While the Chiefs are fantastic at slowing down opposing passing attacks, they achieve this at a cost. Overall, Kansas City was the NFL’s only defense to spend more than half of their snaps in two-high coverages (cover-2, cover-4, cover-6, 2-man) this season. They could always change their strategy due to the inclement weather conditions, but then against those very same issues might force the Dolphins to lean on their ground game regardless.

Will Patrick Mahomes and company finally get going against this sinking Dolphins defense?

The Dolphins boasted the NFL’s best defense from Week 8 to Week 15 in terms of EPA allowed per play. It wasn’t a coincidence that this span coincided with getting stud CB Jalen Ramsey back into the picture — but the last three weeks have shown that their domination was a bit of a schedule-induced fugazi:

• Week 16 vs. Cowboys: 20 points allowed, 339 total yards
• Week 17 at Ravens: 56 points allowed, 491 total yards
• Week 18 vs. Bills: 21 points allowed, 473 total yards

The former and latter performances don’t look too bad from a points allowed standpoint, although that’s thanks in large part to a probably unsustainable 37.5% TD allowed rate on red zone possessions. They came within a goal line fumble exchange of giving up 27 points to Dallas, while Josh Allen overthrew a potential long TD to Stefon Diggs and had a separate potential score to James Cook flat-out dropped.

Dec 31, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) roll out of the pocket in the third quarter during a Week 17 NFL football game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Kansas City Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kareem Elgazzar-USA TODAY Sports

Of course, it’s not like Mahomes and company exactly deserve to be lumped in with those top-six scoring offenses. The Chiefs haven’t cleared 400 yards in a game since October — good for the sixth-longest streak in the NFL at the moment behind only the Patriots (23), Panthers (18), Raiders (18), Broncos (17) and Jets (12). Not great company to be in!

While this is a fairly arbitrary cutoff point, the Chiefs’ total of three-such games this season is half as many as their worst season-long performance (6 in 2019) during the Mahomes era.

This is easily the worst passing attack that Andy Reid and company have put forward during the last six regular seasons:

• 2023: +0.058 EPA per pass play (13th)
• 2022: +0.235 (1st)
• 2021: +0.216 (2nd)
• 2020: +0.298 (3rd)
• 2019: +0.255 (No. 2)
• 2018: +0.363 (No. 1)

Things never exactly got on track down the stretch. Mahomes has now gone nine consecutive games without a three-plus TD performance — he previously never had a streak go longer than six (including playoffs).

While the Chiefs have remained a pass-heavy offense (+7% DBOE on the season) despite their relative lack of success throwing the football, it might behoove them to embrace the grind in the trenches against this banged-up Dolphins defense. That has allowed 288 combined rushing yards over the past two weeks.

Look for Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice to continue functioning as the clear-cut top-two options inside this painfully average passing game, but the real star might just be second-year RB Isiah Pacheco considering how much he was leaned on down the stretch.

Best bet: Isaiah Pacheco has racked up 18, 11, 18, 15, 19 and 16 rush attempts in his last six games. This included a 16-66-0 effort against a much healthier version of this very defense in a game with far more ideal weather conditions. While the -145 juice isn’t ideal, I still like Pacheco over 15.5 rush attempts inside of an offense that has always been more willing to embrace one featured RB in the playoffs as opposed to the regular season (see: Damien Williams).

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills (BUF -10, 36.5)

Is Mason Rudolph actually about to give the Steelers a chance?

If he keeps on playing like he has been — maybe!

Yes, Rudolph hasn’t been asked to do THAT much on his way to throwing just 27, 24 and 20 times over his three wins as a starter. The competition also hasn’t been overly robust against the Bengals, Seahawks and plenty of Ravens backups.

Also yes, Rudolph has thrown some legit DIMES along the way and is currently putting forward the position’s best efficiency numbers if you shrink the sample size enough.

Will this keep up? Probably not, but we shouldn’t completely rule out a Geno Smith-esque transformation. It’s not like Rudolph spent the 2020-2023 seasons putting forward one horrendous performance after another; he never really had a legit chance to start behind Ben Roethlisberger and Kenny Pickett.

Of course, this Bills pass defense has proved capable of making some of the game’s best QBs look painfully average, let alone someone who hasn’t been forced to really take over a game yet. Overall, Buffalo hasn’t allowed more than 200 passing yards in a game since Week 14, and only the Joe Burrow-led Bengals managed to clear even 280 on the season.

No QB is expected to be under more constant duress than Rudolph, and things also look ROUGH in terms of combined pass yards per dropback. Hell, the Steelers don’t even possess much of an advantage on the ground, as their combined rush yards before contact mark is the third-worst advantage on the entire slate.

Add it all together, and the Steelers are implied to score a pitiful 13.5 points this week. That total has certainly been impacted by expected bad weather conditions, but either way: The oddsmakers are telling us they expect the clock to strike midnight on Rudolph’s fairytale 2023 campaign — and I’m with them considering just how ridiculously one-dimensional this group has been over the past three weeks.

Just how high is the ceiling for Josh Allen against this T.J. Watt-less Steelers D?

Pretty darn high considering the team has been more willing than ever to feature his legs down the stretch. From Dwain McFarland’s critically acclaimed Utilization Report:

Allen finished the season with 13% of the Bills designed rushing attempts — well below his three-year average of 18%. However, over the last two games, we have seen vintage Allen with 30% of the rushing attempts plus a 9% scramble rate.

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Altogether, Allen has compiled 27 rushing attempts over the last two games, fueling 111 yards on the ground. The fifth-year QB didn’t manage a rushing TD in Week 18, but he has handled eight of the Bills' 13 totes inside the five-yard line over the last four games, punching in five scores.

Maybe no one can 100% replicate the success of the tush push, but Buffalo has the closest thing going with Allen. The 6-foot-5 237-pound QB is a good bet to score a rushing TD each week with 15 on the season.

It was also nice to see the Bills passing attack showing signs of life, tying their season-high in yardage with 359 yards. When Allen is at his best, he is a threat to throw for 300-plus yards with multiple TDs and add 50 yards and a score on the ground.

Outlook: Allen is a high-end QB1 and could be peaking just in time for the NFL Playoffs.

Consider: Allen’s 53 rushing TDs since entering the league in 2018 are more than anyone not named Derrick Henry (80). He’s averaged a robust 5.5 yards per carry during this stretch, the sixth-highest mark of any player with at least 300 carries during this stretch.

Here’s to hoping Allen and No. 1 WR Stefon Diggs can get more on the same page moving forward. The duo was this close to blasting off during their Week 18 win over the Dolphins.

Look for Diggs to work as Allen’s No. 1 WR as always, while Dalton Kincaid has earned the benefit of the doubt as the No. 2 option — especially with James Cook’s dropped TD total up to three on the season. Khalil Shakir and Trent Sherfield will fill out three-WR sets should Gabe Davis (knee) be too banged up to suit up.

Subtracting T.J. Watt (knee) from this Steelers defense could be absolutely devastating if last season was any indication.

• Steelers with Watt (10 games): -0.104 EPA per play (4th), 7 yards per attempt (17th)
• Without (7 games): +0.102 EPA per play (30th), 8.1 yards per attempt (30th)

Best bet: 15 rushing TDs in 17 games is truly wild — but not necessarily fluky. Overall, Jalen Hurts (16) and Allen (14) were the only QBs with more than even five rush attempts inside the five-yard line this season. The tush push really does lead to fantasy-friendly opportunities that don’t exist in other offensive environments; I LOVE Allen’s anytime TD (-110) odds as the primary scorer facing a defense without the services of one of the league’s single-best players. 

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Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (DAL -7.5, 50.5)

Just how hot has Jordan Love been in recent weeks?

On absolute f*cking fire. Seriously: Love has been nothing short of remarkable since November, especially relative to what he was doing during the first two months of the season:

• Weeks 1-8: 0.032 EPA+CPOE composite (No. 25), 6.4 YPA (26th), 57.7% completion rate (33rd)
• Weeks 9-18: 0.168 EPA+CPOE composite (No. 3), 7.7 YPA (12th), 68.7% completion rate (4th)

Love has gone from having passing efficiency numbers not too far removed from guys like Desmond Ridder and Bryce Young to working as one of the game’s single-most lethal towers of the football.

I mean just look at some of these dots.

The results have been tough to argue with. Only the 49ers (6.9) and Lions (6.1) have averaged more yards per play than the Packers (6.0) during the second half of the season. Green Bay has also posted top-five marks in EPA per play (+0.139) and TD drive percentage (27.3%) despite dealing with a multitude of injuries to various skill-position talents along the way.

This has truly been anyone’s idea of an elite offense over the course of the last 10 weeks of action — but now they face arguably their steepest test yet against Micah Parsons and a Cowboys defense that has allowed the NFL’s fifth-fewest points this season.

Love and company will need to stay hot and replicate some of the success that offenses like the 49ers (42 points), Seahawks (35) and Bills (31) have found against this group. Their cause would certainly be helped if No. 1 CB Stephon Gilmore (shoulder) is sidelined or operating at less than 100%.

Either way: Don’t be surprised if the Packers look to lean on TEs Tucker Kraft and Luke Musgrave against a Cowboys defense that has been elite against virtually every target alignment other than inline. Overall, Dallas has posted below-average marks in yards per attempt (8.4, 22nd), passer rating allowed (121.1, No. 22) and contested target percentage (3.9%, 31st) against inline pass-catchers this season.

Is this the best version of a Dak Prescott-led offense yet?

Potentially, although the bar is pretty high. The Cowboys averaged north of 30 points per game in each of 2020-22 with a healthy Dak under center, so their league-high 29.9 mark in 2023 actually represents a slight downgrade.

While the overall ceiling might not be quite as great as past year, this is truly the most lethal Prescott specifically has ever looked since at least his rookie season, if not ever:

• 2023: 0.164 EPA+CPOE composite score (2nd)
• 2022: 0.113 (9th)
• 2021: 0.112 (14th)
• 2020: 0.117 (16th)
• 2019: 0.133 (10th)
• 2018: 0.079 (24th)
• 2017: 0.069 (22nd)
• 2016: 0.175 (3rd)

There have been two notable stinkers against the Bills and 49ers along the way, but it’s tough to see the Packers representing the same level of challenge.

Defensive coordinator Joe Barry’s much-maligned unit has come alive in back-to-back wins over the Vikings and Bears, but previously they managed to make the Giants (24 points, 367 total yards), Buccaneers (34, 452) and even the Panthers (30, 394) look like prolific offenses for a 60 minute period of time.

Nov 12, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (88) celebrates with Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) after scoring a touchdown during the first quarter against the New York Giants at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Nobody has been able to slow down CeeDee Lamb in recent weeks thanks in large part to the Cowboys moving him all around the field to create mismatches. This should be pretty terrifying for Packers fans to stomach: Stud CB Jaire Alexander has only spent 17 total snaps in the slot this season (3.8%), leaving nickelback/kick returner Keisean Nixon as the most likely candidate to line up across from Lamb on any given snap.

Let’s just say Nixon hasn’t had a season to write home about on the defensive side of the ball, grading out as PFF’s 105th overall corner among 163 qualified players. This has been one of the game’s worst defenses when it comes to slowing down WRs aligned out of the slot:

Packers vs. WRs lined up from the slot:

• Yards per attempt: 9 (27th)
• TD rate allowed: 5.8% (22nd)
• Passer rating allowed: 109.2 (27th)
• Contested target rate: 10.6% (29th)

Throw in a run defense that ranks just 20th in yards before contact allowed per carry this season, and it’s clear the Cowboys are implied to score a week-high 29 points for a reason.

Best bet: Prescott has proved willing to take the game into his own hands over the years in the playoffs, racking up over 20 rushing yards in four of his six career postseason appearances. He’s been back to his dual-threat ways in 2022 (15.2 rush yards per game) and 2023 (14.2) after a dip in 2021 (9.1) — I like Dak’s chances of clearing a relatively soft rushing total of 14.5 yards against a Packers defense that was one of just four units to allow north of 400 rushing yards to opposing QBs this season.

Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions (DET -3, 51.5)

Are the Rams capable of blowing up against this middling Lions secondary?

Absolutely. The Lions represent a perfect example of a pass funnel defense, blending one of the game’s best run-stopping front-sevens with a secondary that hasn’t managed to slow down just about anybody this season.

The following chart denotes every defense’s EPA allowed per run and pass play. The lower left quadrant features defenses fairly elite at defending both, top left indicates a defense better at defending the pass than run, top right features the worst of the worst, and the Lions fall in the bottom-right section of defenses that are great against the run — but liabilities against the pass.

Of course, getting stud S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson and starting DT Alim McNeill helps matters; just realize the Lions have generally struggled to slow down passing attacks of all shapes and sizes throughout 2023.

Complicating matters for Detroit is the reality that the Rams have not one, not two, but suddenly three productive WRs to get involved. That’s right: Demarcus Robinson might actually be pretty good at football guys.

• Week 13: 4 receptions-55 yards-1 TD
• Week 14: 3-46-1
• Week 15: 2-44-1
• Week 16: 6-82-1
• Week 17: 6-92-0

Overall, Robinson (21-319-4) has truly been a third amigo to Cooper Kupp (32-344-4) and Puka Nacua (38-521-2) over the course of these final five games with Matthew Stafford under center. The Rams gained at least 390 yards and scored 36, 31, 28, 30 and 26 points during these contests; this passing game is TOUGH to stop with so many reasonable avenues to go with the football at the moment.

Will injuries prevent the Lions from touching their ceiling?

There are more two key newfound issues impacting this offense after head coach Dan Campbell decided to play his starters for an entire game despite only having a sub-3% chance of increasing their seeding:

• TE Sam LaPorta (knee): Hasn’t been ruled out, but starting the week with a DNP is no bueno. Still, the injury doesn’t seem overly severe, as Campbell said LaPorta has an “outside shot” to play Sunday and noted, “We’re talking in days, not weeks here.”
• WR Kalif Raymond (knee): Started off the week with a DNP and was called further away from returning.

The good news is WR Jameson Williams (ankle) and TE Brock Wright (hip) started the week with full practices, indicating they should be good to go for Sunday night.

The bad news is Jared Goff will now presumably be forced to operate without the team’s second- and fourth-leading receivers against the head coach who knows him better than just about anyone on the planet. This was obviously a very different team back in 2021, but Goff’s initial 268-1-2 passing performance against Aaron Donald and company certainly didn’t inspire a ton of confidence.

While this Rams defense isn’t exactly a juggernaut, they have allowed 20 or fewer points in six of their last nine games and can never be considered a true weak link as long as they have arguably the single-best football player in the world holding down fort in the trenches. Teams like the Ravens (37 points), Cowboys (43) and 49ers (30) still proved plenty capable of putting up numbers; just realize the Lions could struggle to boom to the extent they’re capable of with far less gas in this normally lethal passing attack.

Best bet: This game profiles as a shootout with the Rams having the slight advantage in terms of healthy weaponry. Throw in the Lions’ consistently underwhelming secondary, and I like the idea of backing Stafford’s general down-to-down success in this one. Give me Stafford OVER 23.5 completions (-135) — it’s a mark he’s cleared in three consecutive games, half of his healthy contests overall this season and three of his four playoff games during the Rams’ magical 2021-22 Super Bowl run.

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (PHI -3, 43.5)

What in the absolute f*ck is going on with this Philly offense?

Jalen Hurts and company are down bad at the moment with under 325 total yards in six of eight games since their Week 10 bye. The crew has scored 21 or fewer points in five of those contests — they cleared that mark in all but four games in all of 2022 including the playoffs.

Injuries to most of the offense’s key skill-position parties haven’t helped. Nor has a stagnant scheme that utilizes pre-snap shift/motion on a league-low 31.4% of their snaps. While the Eagles have utilized play action at the league’s eighth-highest rate this season, they are the league’s fourth-worst offense in terms of yards per attempt and passer rating on those concepts.

Brett Kollmann did a great job breaking down the overall mess here and in part concluded that the team’s overwhelming reliance on inside zone and overall lack of window dressing to make anything easier for the passing game are the primary culprits. It’s a really good breakdown, you should watch it.

Anyway: The results have been horrendous. Hurts has been anyone’s idea of a mediocre *passing* QB since the team’s Week 10 bye:

• EPA per dropback: +0.082 (15th among 34 qualified QB)
• CPOE: -1% (22nd)
• PFF pass grade: 79.7 (9th)
• Passer rating: 78.8 (28th)
• Yards per attempt: 6.5 (27th)

While Hurts’ goal line brilliance is a sight to behold, he doesn’t exactly overly threaten defenses as a pure scrambler. Overall, Hurts’ average of 6.9 yards per scramble ranks just 17th among 27 qualified QBs, behind guys like Geno Smith (7.8), Jake Browning (7.7) and Sam Howell (7.5).

Hobbled versions of A.J. Brown (knee) and DeVonta Smith (ankle) won’t help a quick turnaround against a Buccaneers defense that has gotten healthier and accordingly better down the stretch. This Tampa Bay defense has allowed under 325 total yards in five of their last six games, notably handcuffing an otherwise potent Packers offense to just 20 points back in Week 15.

Oh yeah, Hurts isn’t exactly firing at all cylinders either!

Here's to hoping D’Andre Swift can replicate some of his Week 3 magic (16-130-0) on the ground, because this passing game sure doesn’t look to be in a great spot ahead of Monday night.

Can the Buccaneers shock the world with a hobbled Baker Mayfield?

Well, Week 18 certainly wasn’t a good start. Overall, Mayfield completed 20 of 32 passes for 137 scoreless yards, marking just the second time all season he failed to throw a TD — and the only instance that he averaged fewer than five yards per pass attempt.

Oh yeah, it was also a must-win Week 18 matchup against the f*cking Panthers. The offense’s 228 total yards of offense was their second-worst mark of the season and marked the 12th-lowest total of the year in a win.

Here’s the problem with the Bucs: As good of stories as Mayfield’s bounce-back campaign, Mike Evans’ 10th consecutive season with 1,000-plus yards and Rachaad White’s breakout fantasy year have been: This has still by and large been a fairly mid offense throughout 2023 — especially when attempting to run the football:

• EPA per play: -0.003 (No. 11)
• EPA per pass play: +0.098 (No. 7)
• EPA per run play: -0.169 (No. 28)
• Yards per play: 5.1 (No. 19)
• Yards per pass: 7.1 (No. 13)
• Yards per rush: 3.2 (No. 31)

Normally it’d be reasonable to still give this unit the benefit of the doubt against the Eagles’ porous secondary, but the first matchup between these units saw the Bucs produce just 174 total yards of offense.

This could just be a bad stylistic matchup at the end of the day. As much as this banged-up Eagles secondary has struggled this season, they have played more cover-6 than all but seven teams — and Mayfield ranks 32nd or worse in PFF pass grade, yards per attempt and passer rating alike against this specific coverage scheme.

Best bet: The team’s current 44-point game total seems a bit lofty considering the negative direction that both offenses have been moving in. Their 25-11 finish in Week 3 featured far healthier units on both sidelines. What happens when the Injury Gods continue to be dicks and we throw in the potential for buckets of Florida rain? Give me under 44 points in a matchup featuring quite possibly the two worst offenses in the playoffs at this moment in time.