2023 Fantasy Draft Strategy. Favorite Pick in Every Round.

It’s pretty difficult to exactly replicate any individual fantasy roster from one draft to the next. This is mostly due to the draft spot order and managers involved changing but also because a lot can change in a hurry over the course of 200-plus picks.

That said, having already completed over 150 best ball drafts along with a handful of redraft squads this offseason, I've identified certain targets that I repeatedly attempt to come away with at cost in drafts.

Here are my favorite picks in every round of fantasy drafts for the 2023 season. We’ll use Underdog ADP while assuming 18 rounds and 12 teams. If you're curious, I’ve also already broken down my favorite specific ranges of drafts.

And as always: It’s a great day to be great.

Round 1

Cooper Kupp

• ADP of WR3, 4.1 overall

It’s not my intention to simply list the highest-ranked fantasy player in every round. You can check out the completely free Fantasy Life Rankings for that.

Rather, the bigger goal in the first round is figuring out which draft position offers the best range of options for the first few rounds as a whole.

Right now, the 1.04 and 1.05 picks are especially intriguing to me for a few reasons.

For one, I consider Kupp and Tyreek Hill to be in the same tier as Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase, so you’re pretty much guaranteed to secure one of these alpha WR1s with Christian McCaffrey typically off the board within the first four overall picks.

Nov 13, 2022; Inglewood, California, USA; Arizona Cardinals cornerback Antonio Hamilton (33) forces an incomplete pass to Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp (10) in the first half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Additionally, one of Tony Pollard, Saquon Barkley, or Derrick Henry is usually still available at pick No. 20 and 21 in Round 2 coming back. Hell, Nick Chubb occasionally falls and is still available at those picks.

And finally, there are generally still good opportunities to get another dope RB in the form of Josh Jacobs or Rhamondre Stevenson in Round 3 when starting from the 1.04 or 1.05 draft slot. Even if you don't like the RBs in that third round range, strong WR options like D.K. Metcalf or Calvin Ridley or one of the Baltimore studs, Mark Andrews and QB Lamar Jackson, are typically still on the board.

Kupp gets the nod for me in Round 1 because it’s rare to be able to get the back-to-back reigning, undisputed fantasy WR1 champion in PPR points per game (PPG) at a slight discount. Another perk of drafting Kupp is that Matthew Stafford continues to stand out as one of fantasy’s single-best late-round QB options to stack with Kupp in the double-digit rounds.

Honorable mention

• Justin Jefferson
• ADP of WR1, 1.1 overall

A few weeks ago, I would have said that getting the 1.01 to secure Justin Jefferson would've been the ideal draft slot to pair with guys like Barkley, Pollard, and Derrick Henry on the Round 2-3 turn, but alas, those days sure seem to be over. Sad!

Round 2

Nick Chubb

• ADP of RB4, 13.2 overall

It’s a minor miracle how well Chubb has performed in fantasy land over the years considering the extent to which the Browns have refrained from fully featuring him:

• 2020: RB28 expected PPR PPG vs. RB9 actual PPR PPG
• 2021: RB20 expected vs. RB12 actual
• 2022: RB18 expected vs. RB8 actual

Fast forward to 2023, and Kareem Hunt remains a free agent while D’Ernest Johnson signed with the Jaguars. It’d make sense if Jerome Ford is involved to a decent extent, but realize that Chubb might finally get the sort of three-down role that his extraterrestrial talents deserve.

The fact that RBs like Chubb are even available in Round 2 is shocking. That usually doesn’t happen!

While the best fantasy football draft strategy is to be water and adjust to your environment, my favorite rosters have usually been the ones which featured one or two RBs in the first three rounds.

Honorable mention

• Tony Pollard
• ADP of RB7, 19.9 overall

There's similar reasoning for Pollard as there is for Chubb with just a little more risk considering that Dallas could sign one of the veteran free agent RBs still floating around prior to Week 1. You could throw Barkley and Derrick Henry into this mix too. All in all, I absolutely love the RB values in Round 2 right now.

Round 3

Lamar Jackson

• ADP of QB4, 34.8 overall

I’m not taking Lamar Jackson in every draft, but the discrepancy in ADP between him and the big-three QBs has never made a ton of sense considering how the best version of Jackson in 2019 was quite literally the best fantasy QB…ever.

Seriously, no QB in the history of the NFL averaged more fantasy PPG than Jackson’s 27.7 mark four years ago, so his current ADP is pure madness.

I get that we're now in 2023 and not in 2019, but this coming season, Jackson will be surrounded by the best WR corps he's ever had on a Todd Monken-led offense expected to finally dial up fewer isolation routes to Patrick Ricard and more to actual WRs.

Dec 4, 2022; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) warms up prior to the game against the Denver Broncos at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports

The real allure of this new-look Ravens offense should be their willingness to finally play with some sense of urgency. Quicker pace means more plays, which then means more opportunities for all those involved to score fantasy points.

Monken-led offenses ranked 11th, fourth, 11th, and eighth in neutral situation pace from 2016 to 2019, respectively, while the Ravens never ranked higher than 22nd in neutral situation pace with Greg Roman at the helm over the past four seasons.

There's a lot of flexibility in the early ranges of Round 3 in the form of dope WRs like Metcalf and Ridley or potential three-down workhorses in Jacobs and Stevenson. There's even Jackson's teammate, Mark Andrews, to consider. Although I mix in these other options in some drafts, I absolutely love drafting Jackson if all of them are gone by my pick in Round 3.

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Honorable mention

• Josh Jacobs
• ADP of RB10, 30.6 overall

Buy. The. Dip. Sadly, RBs as a whole have very little leverage with the current CBA, so don’t expect Jacobs to leave over $10 million on the table even if his feelings are hurt. With that in mind, it’s pretty rare to find RBs with a legit chance to see 400 touches available this late in drafts.

Round 4

Jerry Jeudy

• ADP of WR20, 39.1 overall

This is a bit of a dead area in drafts with available RBs and WRs in this range settling into fairly long tiers. It’s also a bit early to go after any QB or TE, as the next-best players at those positions are usually still available in Round 5 and beyond.

This brings us to Jeudy, who quietly ended 2022 on quite a tear:

• Week 14: 8-73-3, PPR WR1
• Week 15: 7-76-0, PPR WR22
• Week 16: 6-117-0, PPR WR14
• Week 17: 7-38-0, PPR WR28
• Week 18: 5-154-0, PPR WR3

Of course, head coach Sean Payton’s new offense won't necessarily feature Jeudy over Courtland Sutton. It also remains to be seen whether Russell Wilson will rebound from his career-worst 2022 campaign, or if the reigning 32nd-ranked scoring offense will once again function as one of the league’s least fantasy-friendly environments.

Ultimately, I’m in on Jeudy at his current ADP being drafted alongside fellow WRs with offensive environment questions like Christian Watson, Drake London, and Terry McLaurin. Don’t be afraid to bet on the 24-year-old talent finally booming in a major way heading into his first NFL season playing with the same QB for the second consecutive year.

Honorable mention

• Mike Williams
• ADP of WR25, 45.9 overall

Getting exposure to the Chargers offense in general sure looks like a good idea with the gang in a far healthier state heading into 2023. It’s also important in best ball land to strongly consider Week 17 correlation, and this year’s Broncos-Chargers matchup carries plenty of upside while also being very stackable throughout all ranges of drafts.

Round 5

Diontae Johnson

• ADP of WR29, 56.3 overall

You might have heard that Johnson didn’t score a single TD in 2022. His 147 scoreless targets are 38 more than the next-closest tally since the metric began being tracked in 1992.

Attempting to discern whether Johnson’s 2022 was simply terribly unlucky or the result of him simply not being a great football player is one of the more important questions of the offseason. Here are a few pieces of evidence that scholars (i.e., me) have compiled in an effort to prove that Johnson is in fact good at football:

• Johnson’s scoreless 2022 campaign didn’t provide high-end stats, but his first-read target share and overall WR score (ESPN) put him in the company of guys like Stefon Diggs, Tyler Lockett, and Tee Higgins.
• One only needs to go back 12 months to find a rather awesome 107-1161-8 campaign (WR8 in PPR PPG) from Johnson that featured plenty of borderline erotic route-running ability.
• The Steelers signed up to pay Johnson over $18 million per year, which is more than all but 13 other WRs in the league.

Pittsburgh Steelers Diontae Johnson (18) stiff arms Las Vegas Raiders Nate Hobbs (39) during the first half at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, PA on December 24, 2022. Pittsburgh Steelers Vs Las Vegas Raiders Week 16 Photo Credit: Michael Longo/For USA Today Network / USA TODAY NETWORK

There are plenty of WRs in this range with similar upside who I wouldn’t have a huge problem with others preferring. Either way, failing to draft at least four (ideally five) WRs by the end of Round 8 leaves squads awfully short on upside at a position that requires three starters in plenty of high-stakes formats.

Honorable mention

• Kenneth Walker
• ADP of RB17, 52.9 overall

Monitor the calf injury, but if he's 100% for Week 1, Walker profiles as a cheaper, arbitrage version of Travis Etienne who is only available this late in drafts because the Seahawks used a Day 2 pick on Zach Charbonnet. I usually prefer getting a WR in this range, but if deploying a true zero-RB strategy, the Seahawks’ talented second-year RB is a pretty great target regularly available outside of the top-50 overall picks.

Round 6

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

• ADP of WR32, 61.8 overall

Tyler Lockett

• ADP of WR33, 63.6 overall

This entire Seahawks offense looks capable of putting up big-time numbers in 2023. It’s not impossible for there to be three fantasy-viable WRs in Seattle this coming season.

In the last 10 years, seven offenses have enabled three top-36 fantasy football WRs in PPR PPG in the same season:

• 2021 Bengals
• 2020 Panthers
• 2020 Steelers
• 2018 Rams
• 2018 Bucs
• 2016 Saints
• 2013 Broncos

Lockett has smashed his ADP on an annual basis ever since landing a full-time starting job in 2018, and JSN topped Dwain McFarland’s Rookie WR Super Model and possesses the sort of short-area quickness to warrant comparisons to long-time stud slot maven Julian Edelman.

I’m not against taking someone like George Kittle or Kyle Pitts in this ADP range, but the ability to fill the TE position in the next round is usually tantalizing enough for me to add another WR in Round 6 before the position really falls off a cliff.

The Seahawks' passing game profiles to be far more efficient than the Buccaneers, Cardinals, and Colts, a.k.a. the teams of the other WRs in this range. That’s a good enough tiebreaker for me, especially with both Lockett and JSN being #good in their own respective rights.

If forced to pick between them, give me the proven commodity in Lockett, but the real answer to Lockett vs. JSN might simply be “yes”.

Honorable mention

• Michael Pittman
• ADP of WR35, 68.5 overall

Pittman is essentially a cheaper version of D.J. Moore, a clear-cut No. 1 WR stuck on a run-first offense. I would agree that Moore is the better real-life WR, but that hasn't stopped Pittman from scoring more PPR PPG in each of the past two seasons. Throw in the potential for this offense to be a bit more pass-heavy than some are expecting depending on the outcome of this Jonathan Taylor situation, and it’s fair to wonder if the fantasy community is underrating Pittman’s potential to see a very high number of targets in 2023.

Round 7

Darren Waller

• ADP of TE7, 77.8 overall

The ex-Raiders veteran TE finds himself now on a passing offense that lacks a true No. 1 WR. Instead, the Giants have a hodgepodge of serviceable but far-from-elite WRs like Isaiah Hodgins, Darius Slayton, and Parris Campbell.

Maybe Waller won’t have the same chemistry with Daniel Jones as he did with Derek Carr, but offensive coordinator Mike Kafka certainly learned a thing or two about featuring his TE in the passing game during his time as the Chiefs QB coach and passing game coordinator from 2018 to 2021.

New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones (8) throws to wide receiver Darren Waller (12) during organized team activities (OTA's) at the Giants training center on Wednesday, May 31, 2023, in East Rutherford. Photo Credit: Danielle Parhizkaran/NorthJersey.com / USA TODAY NETWORK

Early Fantasy Life Projections have Waller leading the Giants in targets in 2023, and it’s not particularly close. I believe Waller should be drafted closer to where Mark Andrews, T.J. Hockenson, Kyle Pitts, Dallas Goedert, and George Kittle are currently being selected. Waller's relatively cheap ADP makes him one of my favorite players to draft this offseason.

Honorable mention

• James Conner
• ADP of RB25, 80.5 overall

One of just six RBs to post top-12 finishes in PPR PPG in both 2021 and 2022, Conner has suffered an unwarranted ADP drop compared to where he was going in 2022 drafts as the RB15 at pick No. 35 overall. His PPR RB5, RB12, RB4, and RB15 finishes in four late-season games without Kyler Murray last season could be a preview of his 2023 season: boatloads of inefficient volume that might (again) be enough to produce borderline RB1 production each week.

Round 8

Deshaun Watson

• ADP of QB9, 83.8 overall

I realize in this example that we already drafted Lamar Jackson in Round 3, so I would not draft Watson as a QB2 if that were my actual roster.

That said, Watson is my single favorite QB target in 2023 drafts if opting out of an early-QB approach. He presents the same sort of dual-threat upside as guys like Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Josh Allen if Watson can return to form after a long-hiatus and rough half-season in 2022.

After all, Watson is one of just five QBs to have ever averaged over 20 fantasy PPG in a season. So why is Watson this cheap?

His deflated ADP is the result of two factors: a horrendous 2022 campaign where he literally tied Zach Wilson in EPA per dropback (-0.09) and some drafters understandably not wanting to draft Watson at all given his track record of off-field issues.

The Browns have added additional pass-catching weapons this offseason by trading for Elijah Moore, and they're reportedly willing to turn Kevin Stefanski’s typically run-first offense into the Deshaun Watson show in 2023.

If you ask yourself, “What can I get in this round that I can’t get later?”, the answer in Round 8 is clearly a QB of Watson's caliber.

Honorable mention

• Elijah Moore
• ADP of WR44, 86.7 overall

Double-tapping Watson and Moore at the Round 7-8 turn just feels right. There are certainly a wide range of outcomes for both Browns players, but a marriage featuring the best versions of both could make for some truly special middle-round values in fantasy land. I often already have four or five WRs at this point in drafts and don’t need Moore, but he’s a great target for drafters who've spent more early-round draft capital at RB or TE instead of WR.

Round 9

Antonio Gibson

• ADP of RB32, 98.9 overall

There are three key variables that have caused me to draft Gibson more than any RB not named Jaylen Warren:

1. Newfound pass-game opportunity: Longtime scat back J.D. McKissic remains an unrestricted free agent. He trailed only Austin Ekeler, Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara in targets per game from 2020 to 2022. Washington's new offensive coordinator, Eric Bieniemy, helped oversee a Chiefs offense that fed Jerick McKinnon 71 targets last season.
2. Lack of incoming competition: Washington only added sixth-round rookie Chris Rodriguez to the RB room this offseason. The grinder caught just 20 passes in five seasons at Kentucky and is a far bigger threat to Brian Robinson’s early-down work than to Gibson's potentially receiving role.
3. Steady drumbeat of good news: Last August, Gibson truthers were forced to stomach updates that the former third-round pick was suddenly facing a new reality as a return specialist. This offseason, head coach Ron Rivera suddenly can’t stop finding different good things to say about Gibson.

Nov 20, 2022; Houston, Texas, USA; Washington Commanders running back Antonio Gibson (24) runs with the ball as Houston Texans linebacker Christian Kirksey (58) attempts to make a tackle during the fourth quarter at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

The floor for Gibson is a PPR-friendly RB3 on a bad Washington offense. The ceiling for Gibson if Robinson were to miss time could be a poor man’s McCaffrey, except this time, Washington might really mean it.

Honorable mention

• Zach Charbonnet
• ADP of RB34, 103.8 overall

Monitor the shoulder injury, but when healthy, Charbonnet profiles as an exceedingly capable option in the two areas where Kenneth Walker struggled with as a rookie: short-yardage situations and the passing game. These areas also just so happen to be the two most fantasy-friendly opportunities that any RB can get, so there’s a non-zero chance that Charbonnet could be the preferred fantasy option in this Seattle backfield, and an injury to Walker could even give Charbonnet league-winning upside.

Round 10

Brian Robinson

• ADP of RB37, 110.4 overall

Drafting both Gibson and Robinson usually isn’t necessary, but their differing skill sets also doesn't make the strategy a complete no-go.

Credit to Robinson for his awesome big hats and for finishing out his rookie campaign strong after recovering from a freaking gunshot wound. Being one of just nine RBs who faced eight-plus defenders in the box on at least 30% of their carries (Next Gen Stats) last year also didn’t help matters.

The 2022 third-round pick was targeted just 12 times all of last season and in all likelihood won’t be taking over this backfield anytime soon, as Robinson still only played 52% of the offense’s snaps in Week 17 even with both Gibson and J.D. McKissic sidelined in that game.

And yet, the only added competition is sixth-round RB Chris Rodriguez. Robinson himself has called the difference between this year and last “night and day” thanks to his improved health.

Pretty much the cheapest no-doubt starting RB in all of fantasy football, Robinson presents excellent half-PPR value at this point in the draft when the top-50 WRs, top-10 TEs, and top-12 QBs are all typically already off the board at his current ADP.

Honorable mention

• Geno Smith
• ADP of QB15, 115.5 overall

An arbitrage version of Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence, Smith was the QB9 in fantasy PPG last season and joins Daniel Jones as pretty much the only two QBs going in this range of the draft with any sort of dual-threat upside. Smith has arguably more overall skill-position talent than any other QB in the league and profiles as just about the last QB I would really feel comfortable as the QB1 on my roster heading into the season.

Round 11

Jamaal Williams

• ADP of RB43, 127.6 overall

What if the 2023 version of 2022 Jamaal Williams is…Jamaal Williams? Hear me out.

The Saints gave Williams a three-year, $12 million contract with a whopping $8 million guaranteed. He profiles as the favorite for fantasy-friendly goal-line opportunities in an offense with the potential to take a step forward after presumably upgrading at QB, and Williams is affordably priced in the RB4 range alongside clear-cut handcuffs who don't have the same potential for standalone flex production.

Jul 31, 2023; Metairie, LA, USA; New Orleans Saints running back Jamaal Williams (30) during training camp at the Ochsner Sports Performance Center. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

It’s not a given that Williams will see 15-plus touches per week when both Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller are also available, but the potential for Kamara to be suspended could open up an awfully cozy workload for Williams at least early in the year.

This is one of the last rounds where you can still draft RBs that won’t make you hate yourself, so don’t be afraid to fire multiple darts on RBs in this ADP range if you've already adequately addressed the WR position with five or more players.

Honorable mention

• Elijah Mitchell
• ADP of RB41, 123.3 overall

Mitchell logged at least nine touches in all five of his healthy games alongside Christian McCaffrey last season. Although Mitchell doesn’t have enough pass-game involvement to warrant much standalone value, there’s plenty of handcuff upside here as evidenced by Mitchell's six top-15 PPR finishes in 11 regular season performances back in 2021.

Round 12

Jaylen Warren

• ADP of RB44, 135.1 overall

Warren made more out of his opportunities than Najee Harris all throughout last season, ultimately earning more chances down the stretch with at least a 30% snap rate in six of his seven healthy games following the team’s Week 12 bye. This wasn’t the norm under Tomlin previously, as seven of Harris’s 12 least-used games in terms of offensive snap rate occurred during the final nine weeks of 2022.

It’s tough to blame the Steelers for making this usage change, as Warren was out-performing Harris in every facet of the game even as a rookie.

Harris (40.4%) and Warren (40.3%) each faced eight-plus defenders in the box on a nearly identical percentage of carries last season. The idea that Harris dramatically improved after getting a steel plate in his cleat removed has also been overstated.

It’s unreasonable to expect Warren to straight up take over this backfield, but the back half of 2022 already demonstrated that at a minimum, Mike “I’m a featured runner-type guy” Tomlin might be more willing to reduce Harris’s previously ridiculous workload compared to past years.

Warren is one injury away from rocketing up draft boards and stands out as arguably the most valuable handcuff in football considering the Steelers’ history of leaning on workhorse backs. I love drafting Warren at this point in the draft when the WR and TE options are rather gross.

Honorable mention

• Tank Bigsby
• ADP of RB45, 136.1 overall

Similar to Charbonnet, Bigsby has Day 2 draft capital with an ability to supply value in the two areas of the field in which his offense’s incumbent starter struggled last season: passing situations and goal-line work. Also like Charbonnet, we aren’t actively expecting Bigsby to take over the lead role, but there’s “flex with benefits” upside here for Bigsby on an ascending Jaguars offense.

Round 13

Gerald Everett

• ADP of TE16, 148.1 overall

The sixth-year veteran TE enjoyed career-best marks in targets (87), receptions (58), and receiving yards (555) alike in 2022, and that doesn’t even include his sterling 6-109-1 performance in the Chargers’ ill-fated Wild Card loss to the Jaguars.

And if you were to include the playoffs for every TE? Everett would've finished last season as the TE10 in PPR PPG. Not too shabby!

It’s hard to overstate just how impressive Everett's performance was against the Jaguars. He demonstrated some truly ridiculous YAC ability on multiple occasions during that playoff loss, looking like a juiced-up WR with the ball in his hands at times.

Yes, Everett benefited from both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams missing time in 2022, but it's not as though either has exactly been a model of good health.

But Everett was also regularly forced into playing a suboptimal part-time role last year in an offense that made sure to keep the likes of Donald Parham, Stephen Anderson, and Tre’ McKitty (meow) also involved under ex-offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi.

My most-drafted TE of the offseason, Everett is a full-time role away from vying for weekly top-eight TE production, and even without a full-time role, it's tough to slide Everett too far down the TE2 ranks thanks to his ability to provide true boom weeks on an efficient Chargers offense with Herbert.

Honorable mention

• Tyler Higbee
• ADP of TE15, 144.4 overall

Only Kelce, Andrews, Ertz, Hockenson, Pitts and Schultz averaged more expected PPR PPG than Higbee did last season. Sustained top-10 TE production in 2023 seems unlikely, but that’s okay when Higbee is priced as low as he is. Don’t be afraid to buy this legit every-down TE with a proven track record of fantasy goodness after the top-45 RBs, top-64 WRs, and top-18 QBs are already off the board.

Round 14

Jerome Ford

• ADP of RB51, 165.6 overall

The Athletic’s Dane Brugler wrote the following about Ford back in his ever-excellent 2022 pre-draft guide, “The Beast”:

“A one-year starter at Cincinnati, Ford became the Bearcats’ lead back as a junior in former offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock’s spread RPO offense. The Alabama transfer was a key reason behind Cincinnati’s run to the 2021 College Football Playoffs, leading the AAC in rushing and matching the school record for rushing touchdowns (19) in a season.

Ford has the lateral footwork and body strength to keep plays alive, flashing the open-field juice to gash defenses (averaged 6.1 yards per carry in his career). However, his vision and patience lack consistency, and he needs to improve his ball security and blocking to maintain the trust of his coaches.

Overall, Ford has room to improve his eyes and timing at the line of scrimmage to be more of a creator, but he has an effective blend of size, strength and speed with upside catching the football. He can provide a punch to an NFL team’s depth chart.”

Nov 20, 2022; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Cleveland Browns running back Jerome Ford (34) runs the ball as Buffalo Bills running back Taiwan Jones (25) pursues during the first quarter Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

The Browns only gave Ford eight offensive touches last season, but their offseason decisions to not re-sign Kareem Hunt or D’Ernest Johnson while also refraining from drafting a single RB speaks volumes to how they feel about the rising second-year back.

Seemingly cemented as the offense’s clear-cut No. 2 RB, Ford is one of the best late-round bets out there thanks to his potential to siphon away some fantasy-friendly pass-down work and provide elite handcuff upside if Chubb were to miss any time.

Similar to our discussions on Warren and Bigsby, Ford’s value is heightened by the reality that most of the WR and TE options in this ADP range are pretty gross.

Honorable mention

• Donovan Peoples-Jones
• ADP of WR70, 160.1 overall

DPJ actually posted more top-36 finishes (4) than Amari Cooper (2) with Deshaun Watson last year, so this was a far closer target split than many think down the stretch in 2022. DPJ has demonstrated the ability to get all kinds of separation via double-moves, has made many great contested catches, and boasts underrated open-field elusiveness (the man returned punts last year!). I'm happy to draft a starting WR on a potentially very good Browns passing game at this point in drafts.

Round 15

Tyjae Spears

• ADP of RB54, 172.4 overall

The new undisputed No. 2 RB in Tennessee, Spears profiles as exactly the sort of pass-down threat who could turn Derrick Henry back into more of a one-dimensional early-down grinder. From The Athletic’s Dane Brugler’s ever-excellent draft guide, “The Beast”:

“A three-year starter at Tulane, Spears was consistently productive in offensive coordinator Jim Svoboda’s RPO-based multiple offense. After a torn ACL in 2020 and shared workload in 2021, he had an extremely productive 2022 campaign, finishing No. 5 in the country in rushing yards (1,581) and rushing yards per carry (6.90).

Spears is a slippery runner with his dynamic start/stop cutting skills, patient vision and darting acceleration, which are highlighted on counter and outside zone plays. He has the functional skills to provide value in the passing game, but he can be more dependable as a blocker and pass catcher.

Overall, Spears doesn’t have desired build or run strength, but his explosive read-plant-burst action allows him to abruptly change his rush path and elude tacklers. He shows the potential for three-down duties, although he will be at his best as part of a committee, similar to the Buffalo Bills’ James Cook.”

Spears probably won’t carry much standalone flex value, but his handcuff upside is as high as ever as long as Dontrell Hilliard remains an unrestricted free agent and Hassan Haskins remains in deep legal trouble.

There’s also potential for Henry to be rested down the stretch if the Titans prove incapable of contending for the playoffs with this roster. Benefiting from two cake matchups against the Texans in the most important three weeks of the season during the fantasy playoffs would be awfully nice for a rookie with an incredibly affordable ADP At the moment.

I don’t mind Kenneth Gainwell in this range either; just realize the RB position becomes terribly thin after this point. Getting another potential handcuff here in Spears before adding a few more WRs or TEs in the final three rounds of drafts has been my preferred late-round strategy throughout the offseason.

Honorable mention

• Jayden Reed
• ADP of WR76, 175.0 overall

This was going to be Tim Patrick before Monday’s non-contact injury. Why can’t we have nice things? Anyway, Reed looks like the favorite to serve as Jordan Love’s starting slot WR heading into the season. It’s hardly a guarantee that this role will lead to a massive target share, but young WRs with upside this late in drafts are few and far between.

Round 16

DeVante Parker

• ADP of WR81, 190.4 overall

The crowded nature of this New England passing game has depressed the ADP of everyone involved. Luckily, training camp intel has provided some recent clarity:

As a reminder, the Patriots gave Parker a new three-year contract worth up to $33 million in late June. There's only $14 million guaranteed, but at a minimum, that’s enough money to more or less cement Parker's spot in starting three-WR sets.

Parker flashed some patented grown man catches throughout 2022 while posting a couple of 5-156-0 and 6-79-2 blowup performances. It’s not a given that he'll lead the team in targets over JuJu Smith-Schuster, but Parker's much cheaper ADP makes him a low-risk bet with a fair ceiling.

The 30-year-old veteran WR has been dubbed a fantasy football sleeper for what seems like 50 straight offseasons, but that doesn't change the fact that Parker has a serviceable target projection for a WR who's currently being drafted outside of the top-150 picks.

Honorable mention

• Gus Edwards
• ADP of RB59, 186.7 overall

Fourth all-time in yards per carry among all RBs with 500-plus career carries (seriously!), the Gus Bus is #good at football, and it’s a damn shame that more people don’t realize this. Edwards has weekly potential for double-digit carries on a potentially lethal Ravens offense, and that’s assuming that this ongoing J.K. Dobbins knee or holdout situation will get figured out before Week 1.

Round 17

Isaiah Likely

• ADP of TE27, 203.0 overall

The only TE handcuff in all of fantasy football, Likely showed what he's capable of in his three games with a snap rate north of 50% as a rookie:

• Week 8: 6-77-1 on 7 targets, PPR TE2
• Week 9: 1-24-1 on 5 targets, PPR TE9
• Week 18: 8-103-0 on 13 targets, PPR TE3

Of course, the presence of Mark Andrews limited Likely’s weekly role and made him a non-viable fantasy asset for the rest of the 2022 season. Fun fact: it’s impossible for players to score fantasy points if they aren’t on the field.

Still, Likely profiles as one of, if not the only, player available outside of the top-200 picks who's just one injury away from potentially being a weekly top-six option at his position. Drafting players purely because of contingency value isn’t ideal, but it’s more okay when using one of the last picks of the draft.

Jul 27, 2023; Owings Mills, MD, USA; Baltimore Ravens tight end Isaiah Likely (80) catches a pass from Baltimore Ravens tight ends coach George Godsey during training camp practice at Under Armour Performance Center. Mandatory Credit: Brent Skeen-USA TODAY Sports

The plethora of WR additions in this offense has many envisioning new offensive coordinator Todd Monken centering his passing game around them, but it's worth noting that the Georgia Bulldogs made a habit of featuring both TEs in Brock Bowers and Darnell Washington under his tutelage.

Look, you aren’t drafting Likely to be your No. 1 TE anyway, so why not grab a lottery ticket? Guys like Jake Ferguson, Michael Mayer, Jelani Woods, and Noah Fant are each probably multiple injuries away from even beginning to sniff a top-12 TE finish, so why not take the home-run swing on Likely?

Honorable mention

• Ryan Tannehill
• ADP of QB28, 199.1 overall

High-end passing efficiency and the ability to rack up rushing scores (20 since 2019, which is more than Lamar Jackson!) has helped Tannehill post QB9, QB9, QB14, and QB22 finishes in fantasy PPG during the span. While the QB22 finish in 2022 is ugly, Tannehill deserves some slack for having played with one of the league’s worst WR rooms and dealing with ankle injuries throughout last season. Adding DeAndre Hopkins to the picture reinforces the idea that Tannehill will start for as long as the Titans are in contention in 2023, and he's pretty much the only QB available outside of the top-170 picks who has any sort of track record of high-end fantasy success.

Round 18

Robert Woods

• ADP of WR88, 208.6 overall

There's some allure for drafting the artist known as Bobby Trees in the final round of drafts.

He profiles as the offense’s starting Z receiver after fetching $10 million guaranteed in free agency, and Woods is well-versed in this system to the point that head coach DeMeco Ryans said, “He knows it, knows it just as good as some of our coaches know it.”

Moreover, Woods will now be two years removed from his 2021 ACL tear, and he'll be playing with arguably the best pure passer from the 2023 NFL Draft on a Texans offense that has more available targets and air yards from last year than any other group in the league.

Considering that Adam Thielen checks a lot of these same boxes but is going off the board as the WR64 (pick No. 142.8 overall) and is two years older, Woods seems like a steal at ADP.

I get it. Drafting a 31-year-old WR fresh off a gross 53-527-2 campaign isn’t exactly going to bring a smile to your face, but Woods has a chance to lead his team in targets in 2023, unlike other WRs in his ADP range like Mecole Hardman, Marvin Jones, and Josh Downs.

Ideally your WR position is already set by the time Round 18 rolls around, but if not, Woods has decent upside at a dirt-cheap cost with weekly WR4 or even WR3 potential if he were to emerge as the No. 1 target earner in this wide-open Houston passing offense.

Honorable mention

• Pierre Strong Jr.
• ADP of RB68, 214.0 overall

Last season, Damien Harris actually had more carries (94) than Rhamondre Stevenson (88) in the eight games where Harris was healthy enough to play 15-plus snaps. There’s a non-zero chance that Strong will inherit far more rushing volume than his ADP seems to indicate. Of course, that could quickly evaporate should the Patriots sign one of the veteran RBs they have been flirting with in free agency, but I don’t mind throwing a dart at a Patriots RB in the very last round of drafts given the notoriously fickle nature of Bill Belichick's backfields.

You can target Ian's favorite picks in every round on Underdog Fantasy, where you can also get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you sign up for a new account.