Legal tampering and free agency season is just about upon us.

What better way to bring in one of the offseason’s biggest events than by breaking down the key QB parties at play?

Today’s goal: Break down the key storyline surrounding all of the bigger QB names ahead of free agency.

As always: It’s a great day to be great.

The Crown Jewel

Cousins has been a pretty consistent top-10 QB since taking his talents to Minnesota:

  • 2018: -0.012 EPA per dropback (No. 29 among qualified QBs)
  • 2019: +0.199 (No. 7)
  • 2020: +0.188 (No. 10)
  • 2021: +0.137 (No. 10)
  • 2022: +0.058 (No. 19)
  • 2023: +0.145 (No. 6)

Of course, it’s not a given that 2023’s excellence will carry over into 2024 with the soon-to-be 36-year-old signal-caller coming back from a torn Achilles. It’s good news that he’s already throwing again, but multiple doctors have stated a decrease in arm strength is possible even while admitting that a Week 1 return is realistic.

Still, even a 90% version of Cousins should be good enough to provide a lift to some of the NFL’s more QB-needy rosters. He’d be a rather huge upgrade on the following four squads in particular:

  • Pittsburgh Steelers: ESPN analytics rated both Diontae Johnson and George Pickens as top-10 WRs in 2023. If healthy, Cousins would be a great fit inside Arthur Smith’s play-action and downfield-oriented attack.
  • Las Vegas Raiders: Pretty damn loaded at receiver thanks to the presence of Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers and rising second-year TE Michael Mayer. Weather/dome life is also a plus.
  • Denver Broncos: It’s unclear who head coach Sean Payton wants to replace Russell Wilson. Maybe Kirk is that guy, pal, but Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy probably form the least-enticing one-two punch among these four squads.
  • Atlanta Falcons: Dome life combined with a McVay-inspired offense under Zac Robinson and more than enough high-end weapons to go around in the form of Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson — is that something you (Kirk) might be interested in?

There are other teams like the Bears, Patriots and Commanders (lol) who probably would be better off with Cousins under center, but each is also fully expected to use their respective top-three draft picks to address the position.

Ultimately, Cousins is by far the most accomplished QB available on the open market. His next contract should give us a decent idea of how concerned teams are with his Achilles recovery; either way, expect his 2024 employer to get a nice boost in their Super Bowl odds thanks to the reality that this is anyone’s idea of a top-10 NFL QB when things are going right.

Are We POSITIVE 2023 Was Real?

It’s not like Baker has ALWAYS been shit. He set the NFL rookie record for TD passes during his largely heartwarming debut season in Cleveland back in 2018 before leading the franchise to their first playoff win in 27 years in another more-than-solid 2020 campaign.

Sadly, a torn labrum contributed to Mayfield fizzling out in Cleveland during 2021, while his 2022 season was disastrous in Carolina and only a little bit better in Los Angeles. There’s a reason why Mayfield was only able to fetch a one-year, $4 million deal from the Buccaneers in last offseason’s free agency cycle.

Jan 15, 2024; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) looks for a pass against the Philadelphia Eagles during the first half of a 2024 NFC wild card game at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

This brings us to 2023 when Mayfield put his best foot forward for the better part of the year, albeit still wasn’t exactly a slam dunk top-10 option at the position:

Among 39 QBs with 200-plus dropbacks in 2023-24 (including postseason)

  • EPA per dropback: +0.137 (No. 9)
  • CPOE: -0.2% (No. 22)
  • PFF pass grade: 74.8 (No. 18)
  • Passer rating: 96 (No. 12)
  • Yards per attempt: 7.4 (No. 12)

Throw in the loss of offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and it’s hardly a guarantee that simply bringing back Mayfield will overly improve the league’s reigning 20th-ranked scoring offense.

Then again, Mayfield was actually one of the league’s top-eight most-impacted QBs from drops last season. He’s played in four separate offenses during the past three regular seasons. Maybe some level of continuity — and the return of Mike Evans — could make 2023 a sign of things to come as opposed to a blip on the radar.

And guess what: It will “only” take the Buccaneers eight to nine figures to find out! Mayfield might not even make it to the open market, but there’s little doubt that he offers the second-best upside outside of Cousins if he chooses to do so.

Potential Steelers Starting QB

Sorry, Steelers fans.

I can think of several fun outcomes here, but bringing back Rudolph or new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith’s old friend in Tannehill seem like the two most likely outcomes at this point.

Starting with Rudolph: The 28-year-old veteran played the best football of his career down the stretch last season in essentially his first extended action since, well, you know. Rudolph was hardly leaned on (he threw just 27, 24, 20 and 39 pass attempts in his four starts), but the efficiency on hand was … really good?

Peep the top-right-hand corner in the below chart.

And then there’s Tannehill, who played some of the best football of his career with Smith calling plays during the 2019 and 2020 seasons.

Tannehill among 41 QBs with 300-plus dropbacks 2019-2020

  • EPA per dropback: +0.291 (No. 2)
  • Completion percentage over expected: +4.6% (No. 2)
  • PFF pass grade: 91.1 (No. 3)
  • Passer rating: 110.6 (No. 2)
  • Yards per attempt: 8.6 (No. 1)

Having Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown around had a lot to do with that success as well, and Tannehill (36 in July) isn’t a spring chicken at this point. That said: Tanne is a key name to watch in Pittsburgh should Smith deploy the sort of “I need MY guy to run MY system” mindset that we see so often in the NFL.

Should Steelers fans be happy about any of this? Absolutely not! But hey, life isn’t fair. Moving on.

Broncos Country: The Ride is Over

Wilson’s statement following his release reflected the reality that he obviously gave Denver his all, but it’s tough to deny the ex-Seahawks signal-caller had a rough two seasons with the Broncos.

Wilson among 46 QBs with 300-plus dropbacks in 2022-23 seasons 

  • EPA per dropback: +0.035 (No. 28)
  • Completion percentage over expected: +1.7% (No. 13)
  • PFF Pass Grade: 69.8 (No. 24)
  • Passer rating: 91.0 (No. 20)
  • Yards per attempt: 7.1 (No. 19)

Things got a bit better in 2023 with Sean Payton in town, but obviously not good enough considering releasing Russ causes the Broncos to take on an NFL record $85 million in dead money – more than the last two dead money records combined.

The original trade … yikes.

The Broncos have the No. 12 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Fantasy Life’s Matthew Freedman has them addressing this roster hole in a hurry via Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy in his most recent mock draft. Surely the mainstream media won’t salivate over two matchups between McCarthy and Jim Harbaugh on an annual basis.

And then there’s Russ, who finds himself in a unique position. The nature of his contract means he’ll receive $39 million in cash in 2024, meaning the 35-year-old signal-caller could theoretically sign with a team for the veteran minimum.

We’ve probably already seen the best of DangeRuss, but hey: America loves a comeback.

That said: Russ’ funniest potential outcome is EASILY working as Geno Smith’s backup in Seattle. It won’t happen … but you could imagine what it’d be like if it did.

Pretty Damn Good If You Squint

Brissett entered the NFL in 2016 and has since spent time with the Patriots, Colts, Dolphins, Browns and Commanders. Things generally weren’t too impressive … until these last two years when the 31-year-old veteran suddenly looked like anyone’s idea of an above-average thrower of the football.

Brissett among 46 QBs with 300-plus dropbacks in 2022-23

  • EPA per dropback: +0.153 (No. 8)
  • Completion percentage over expected: +3.8% (No. 3)
  • PFF pass grade: 77.0 (No. 19)
  • Passer rating: 92.6 (No. 17)
  • Yards per attempt: 7.2 (No. 17)

The heavy majority of those numbers occurred in Cleveland during Deshaun Watson’s suspension, but things continued to go rather swimmingly in Washington last year. Overall, Brissett went 18 for 23 for 224 yards, three TDs and zero INTs in his two games of action last season — generating a TD drive on all five of his meaningful drives along the way!

There are a number of teams expected to roll into 2024 with a rookie slotted to be the franchise’s future savior; Brissett is one of the better one-year options capable of starting games and/or supplying a solid veteran backup plan at an affordable price.

Reigning Pro Bowler

There are actually a whopping eight (!) former Pro Bowl QBs set to hit free agency. This is more of an indictment of how lame the Pro Bowl has become as opposed to the loaded nature of this free agency class — but still!

To give Minshew some credit, he managed to lead the NFL’s 10th-ranked scoring offense in 2023 after being thrust into the starting role following Anthony Richardson’s season-ending shoulder injury. The efficiency numbers weren’t great (22nd in EPA per dropback, 31st in CPOE), but he’s still firmly in play as someone who could find their way into a Week 1 starting job as a veteran backup/bridge option.

Dec 31, 2023; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Gardner Minshew (10) drops back to pass the ball in the first half against the Las Vegas Raiders at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

Raw counting numbers are hardly everything when evaluating QBs; just realize Minshew racked up as many games with 300-plus passing yards (3) as guys like Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert did last season, and more than Trevor Lawrence and Jordan Love. The man is a top-40 QB on planet Earth.

Your Favorite Veteran Backup QB’s Favorite Veteran Backup QB

Honestly, Mr. Elite would make pretty much any QB room better. Flacco got a bit lucky at the end of 2023 in terms of how many of his turnover-worthy plays wound up actually turning into INTs, but the results remain remarkable for someone who was literally forced to jump off his couch and right back into an NFL huddle.

  • Week 13 at Rams: 254 pass yards-2 TD-1 INT
  • Week 14 vs. Jaguars: 311-3-1
  • Week 15 vs. Bears: 374-2-3
  • Week 16 at Texans: 368-3-2
  • Week 17 vs. Jets: 309-3-1
  • Wild Card at Texans: 307-1-2

Consider: Flacco threw for 300-plus yards in five of his six starts last season — the same total as guys like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Brock Purdy managed throughout the entire year.

Forty years old next January, it’s probable we already witnessed Flacco’s fairy tale ending; just realize his ability to at least lead a functional passing game makes him a draw inside of franchises currently rebuilding their entire QB room from scratch. ESPN’s Adam Schefter has thrown New England out there as one possibility.

Let’s Get Weird

Expecting many (any?) teams to line up in order to make Winston their QB of the present and future is probably wishful thinking. The man isn’t exactly known for making the best decisions with the football, but holy hell it’s always a fun time regardless.

Ultimately, Winston ranks outside the league’s top-30 QBs in PFF pass grade (63.9, 46th), passer rating (87.7, 38th), yards per attempt (7.1, 33rd) and adjusted completion rate (70.1%, 69th) since joining the Saints in 2020. Fun preseason fireworks are probably the most we’re going to get from Famous Jameis in 2024 — but you could imagine what it’d be like if someone said f*ck it.

And then there’s Lock, who also operates with the sort of YOLO-DGAF mindset that makes him a joy to watch for better and (mostly) worse. Sadly, NFL coaches hate fun prefer more consistency under center, something that was never a given during his three years as a starter in Denver.

Kudos to Lock for providing one of the better feel-good moments of last season by leading the Seahawks to a last-second upset victory over the Eagles; just realize it’s unlikely he earned more than a backup competition sort of gig based on the quality of his two spot starts over the last two seasons.

The Other Guys

At this point, Trubisky’s greatest accomplishment is capturing the NVP back in 2020; he was one of just six QBs to average under six yards per attempt last season with a minimum of 100 dropbacks. … Darnold is still somehow just 26 years old and makes a few throws every preseason that take a lonely film grinder from six to midnight; it’s still unlikely he does more than compete for a backup job in 2024. … Wentz gets to add Rams swag to his practice outfit after last season’s brief stint, but like Darnold, it’s tough to see the former No. 2 overall pick getting a true chance to start anywhere anytime soon. … The biggest positive for Mariota last season is that Desmond Ridder proved to not be much better, if at all. We still aren’t exactly cooking with gas for the 30-year-old veteran.

Taylor actually made some truly awesome throws during his spot starts last season; he’s my pick as the best option on this list, but obviously, nobody will be signing up the soon-to-be 35-year-old veteran for too big of a role. … Dobbs flamed out rather brutally after his feel-good opening stretch with the Vikings; at a minimum the Passtronaut provides the sort of plus-ability on the ground to feign a competitive offense for a spot start or two.

It remains inexplicable how Huntley made a Pro Bowl in 2022. That’s the main point here. How? Was it legit just a mistake from the voting committee? Or does this go all the way up to the vice president? People are asking.

FA QBs