Legal tampering and free agency season is just about upon us.

What better way to bring in one of the off-season's biggest events than by breaking down the key RB parties at play?

Today’s goal: Break down the key storyline surrounding all of the bigger RB names ahead of free agency.

As always: It’s a great day to be great.

Are the best years DEFINITELY in the rearview mirror?

The drop-off in Henry’s yards per carry over the years is often attributed to his age. What if I told you it actually has far more to do with his set of big uglies up front?

Titans rank in rush yards before contact per carry:

  • 2023: 0.9 (30th)
  • 2022: 1.0 (30th)
  • 2021: 1.3 (18th)
  • 2020: 1.5 (13th)

Henry’s yards after contact per carry have stayed between 3.3 and 3.9 yards in each of the past four seasons – good for top-10 marks at the position in each and every year along the way. His max speed per season tells a similar story: Don’t be so quick to dub Henry washed just because of his raw yards per carry numbers.

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Dec 31, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry (22) before the game against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Of course, the 30-year-old veteran has quite a few miles on the odometer at this point. His 2,030 career carries are well over the 1,500 mark that historically is about when RBs start to plateau. Just six RBs have put up top-12 fantasy numbers with an age starting with a three over the past decade of action.

This isn’t to say Henry can’t hold off Father Time for another year or two, but he’ll need to find an employer willing to keep FEEDING him the rock in order to make up for a (likely) continued lack of high-end efficiency. This is especially true if his receiving workload more closely resembles what we saw from 2016 to 2021 (15.7 receptions per year) compared to 2022 and 2023 (30.5 receptions per year).

Maybe they were just injured?

Tony Pollard went from being one of the game’s single-best RBs at creating yards after contact and ripping off explosive runs to a guy who ranked outside the league’s top-20 RBs in yards per carry (4, 29th), yards after contact per carry (2.9, 23rd) and explosive run play rate (8.3%, 35th).

Yes, Pollard stated that he “was back” from injury starting in Week 11.

Also yes, no metrics other than PFF rush grade really agree with that assertion.

  • Weeks 1-10: 3.9 yards per carry, 2.7 yards after contact per carry, 7.4% explosive run play rate, 0.93 yards per route run, PFF’s No. 39 graded rusher
  • Weeks 11-WC: 4 yards per carry, 3 yards after contact per carry, 9% explosive run play rate, 0.64 yards per route run, PFF’s No. 1 graded rusher

Pollard handled a career-high 307 touches and played in all 18 of the Cowboys’ regular season and playoff games. No RB scored more PPR points per game BELOW expected (-53.2) than Pollard last season, meaning he 1.) Sucked, and/or 2.) Was really unlucky.

It’d make sense if a fully healthy offseason helps Pollard regain a bit of the patented explosiveness that he regularly brought to the table early in his career. Still, it seems likely the Cowboys – or whoever Pollard winds up playing for in 2024 – will complement him with more of a “thunder” option to the committee considering his rather brutal history near the goal line.

And then there’s Ekeler, who suffered a high ankle sprain during the very first week of the 2023 season. He never really looked the same afterward, infamously reaching a top speed of just 13 miles per hour on this long run against the Packers.

Similar to Pollard: This evaluation comes down to whether or not you believe Ekeler can regain his pre-2023 form after getting the opportunity to get back closer to 100% this offseason. The long-time fantasy GOD simply wasn’t the same rusher fans were used to seeing last season.

Explosive Run Rate / YAC per Attempt

The larger problem for Ekeler could be the reality that the grass often isn’t greener on the other side of free agency. High-priced RBs who change teams during the offseason REALLY haven’t worked out over the years. It’s also unlikely Ekeler will find another offense so willing to feature the RB: No offense has fed RBs more targets over the past three seasons than the Chargers (325).

Here’s to hoping both backs are capable of winding back the clock and regaining their full powers for whoever they play for in 2024 and beyond. Speaking of RBs who haven’t quite been the same monster in recent years…

2018 was a helluva drug

I’m not sure if there has been a more impressive RB than rookie-year Saquon over the past decade of action. Holding him to this lofty of a standard isn’t overly fair considering pretty much NO other RB has been able to match this success, but at the same time: Barkley simply hasn’t been the same beast since – particularly after returning from his 2020 torn ACL.

Of course, the Giants have hardly been a model offensive environment in recent years. PFF’s reigning 30th-ranked offensive line has largely been a liability outside of LT Andrew Thomas, while Daniel Jones hasn’t exactly helped decrease the amount of attention defenders can pay to the run game considering he joins retired NFL commentator Matt Ryan as the only two QBs with an average target depth south of seven yards over the past two seasons.

Barkley is still just 27 years young and has managed to play at least 13 games in all but one of his six career seasons. He’ll probably find a new employer willing to feature him as their RB1 even if the days of seeing the former No. 2 overall pick work as one of the game’s most explosive playmakers are probably over.

The Texans have been a popular potential landing spot. One of just eight teams with at least 60% of their 2023 RB carries AND targets available ahead of free agency, a three-down role inside of this wide-open and ascending C.J. Stroud-led attack would be just what the doctor ordered for Barkley and his faithful fantasy managers.

Everyone has an off year sometimes, right? RIGHT?

Jacobs commonly found himself next to guys like Pollard and Nick Chubb when looking at the league’s best rushers in forcing missed tackles and picking up yards after contact during the first four seasons of his career.

And then 2023 happened. An abbreviated training camp due to the lack of a long-term contract didn’t help, but regardless: Jacobs was objectively one of the league’s least efficient rushers last season.

Jacobs among 49 RBs with 90-plus carries in 2023

  • PFF rush grade: 70.1 (No. 40)
  • Explosive run play rate: 3.9% (No. 48)
  • Yards per carry above expected: -0.37 (No. 41)
  • Yards per carry: 3.5 (No. 44)
  • Yards after contact per carry: 2.4 (No. 46)
  • Missed tackles forced per carry: 0.12 (tied for No. 43)

Jacobs turned 26 in February and is just one year removed from working as the NFL’s leading rusher. It’s tough to overly blame his problems on the offensive line considering the Raiders have ranked 14th and 13th in yards before contact per carry over the past two seasons. His percentage of carries with eight-plus defenders in the box wasn’t much different in 2023 (21.5%) compared to 2022 (20.6%) as well.

Maybe Jacobs was simply a helluva lot more injured throughout the season than anybody knew. Even then: His efficiency numbers have a long way to go before even approaching average, let alone returning to the upper tier of performers at the position. Sixth-year RBs haven’t been too dominant in fantasy land over the last decade's worth of action.

Hall of Famer if football fields were 99 yards long

  • Eagles RB D’Andre Swift

Swift racked up a career-high 1,263 yards in 2023, working as the Eagles’ lead back essentially all season after Kenneth Gainwell suffered a rib injury in Week 1. The ex-Lions talent posted above-average marks in most efficiency metrics and provided an early-season spark as a pass-catcher.

Two key problems:

  1. Swift was brutal at consistently picking up yards after contact. This is true in terms of raw yards after contact (2.42, 45th) and especially in terms of the percentage of carries to achieve at least two yards after contact (49%, last).
  2. The Eagles ignored him as a pass-catcher down the stretch. Largely believed to be one of the game’s better receiving backs, Swift’s average of 3.3 receptions for 19.7 yards per game in Weeks 1-11 sunk to 1.4 catches and seven yards per game during his final seven contests.

Of course, the tush push movement also hurt Swift’s overall counting numbers. Only Joe Mixon (7) was stopped at the one-yard line and failed to score on the same drive more than Swift (6) last season.

The Eagles trailed only the Ravens and Lions in yards before contact per carry last season. It’s hardly a guarantee this dominance continues without legendary C Jason Kelce, but having a dual-threat QB like Jalen Hurts under center should help this offense maintain steady efficiency on the ground in 2024 with or without Swift.

Consistency over time equals excellence

Singletary joins Derrick Henry, David Montgomery, Alvin Kamara and Josh Jacobs as the league’s only five RBs with at least 900 total yards in each of the past five seasons.

Is this stat more so a sign of consistency and good ability to stay healthy as opposed to evidence of Singletary being an elite back? Absolutely, but then again his demonstrated all-around skill set helps explain why Singletary has kept finding his way to lead back duties in some truly good offenses over the years.

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Jan 13, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans running back Devin Singletary (26) in a 2024 AFC wild card game against the Cleveland Browns at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans said he would, “love to have him (Singletary) back.” As fantasy managers found out last season: Sexy advanced metrics in forcing missed tackles don’t always lead to a featured role. Don’t be surprised if Singletary (again) makes his presence felt in whatever backfield he winds up in, even if the role isn’t quite as big as what he saw in Houston down the stretch of 2023.

What if he just wasn’t being used right?

The fun part about Gibson is that his receiving success hasn’t been limited to simple check-downs. The man has been making plays while lined up as a true WR as well as downfield throughout his short NFL career.

Still just 25 years old with minimal between-the-tackles wear-and-tear dating back to college, Gibson isn’t likely to be someone teams look to feature on a three-down basis, but the 6-foot, 228-pound playmaker is an ideal low-priced 1.B change-of-pace option capable of shining in the passing game when called upon.

Are we positive he isn’t REALLY good?

Moss, cousin of Santana and Sinorice, struggled to overly stand out during his three seasons with the Bills from 2020 to 2022.

And then 2023 happened. An early-season back injury to Jonathan Taylor led to a featured role for Moss, who responded with one fantasy-friendly performance after another:

  • Week 2: 18-88-1 rushing, 4-19-0 receiving
  • Week 3: 30-122-0, 2-23-1
  • Week 4: 18-70-0, 0-0-0
  • Week 5: 23-165-2, 2-30-0

Moss played well enough to actively eat into JT’s workload upon return, ultimately finishing the year as the league’s fifth-most efficient RB in rushing yards over expected per carry.

It remains to be seen just how strong of a market there will be for Moss’ services; just realize he’s proven the ability to handle a heavy workload across a chunk of games – something lesser backs probably wouldn’t have been afforded the opportunity to do in the first place.

Be a lot cooler if God turned off injuries

Dobbins could very well be on track to return in Week 1 next season, but a decrease in performance is expected. Note that Dobbins suffered a brutal multi-ligament knee injury in August 2021 as well.

The recent history of RBs coming back from Achilles injuries simply hasn’t been good:

  • Tarik Cohen: Hasn’t returned to football.
  • James Robinson: Has been on five different teams over the last 12 months, never managing to earn a role along the way.
  • Justice Hill: One of the better case studies; Hill has averaged a solid 4.9 yards per carry in two seasons since the injury and continues to offer upside as a pass-catcher.
  • Cam Akers: Ranks 39th and 40th in yards and yards after contact per carry among 49 qualified RBs in two seasons since returning.
  • Marlon Mack: Has bounced around four different teams over the past two years since parting ways with the Colts, failing to earn anything resembling a consistent role along the way.
  • Isaiah Crowell: Hasn’t returned to football.
  • D’Onta Foreman: Joins Hill as the two most-encouraging cases, although even then we’re talking about an early-down committee piece who has typically just worked as a backup/handcuff in bad offenses over the years.
  • Arian Foster: Averaged just 2.5 yards per carry before suffering another lower-body injury which led to his retirement.

Everyone is rooting for Dobbins to return to his electric self, but this seems like wishful thinking for at least 2024 – and accordingly, it’s unlikely anyone readily signs up to give him a big contract and/or workhorse role.

The Other Guys

Zeke averaged a career-low 3.5 yards per carry in New England and posted the position’s fourth-worst explosive run play rate among 49 qualified RBs. … The government doesn’t want you to know Gus Bus ranks 12th in yards per carry (4.9) among all RBs with 500-plus rush attempts in the Super Bowl Era. … Cook (67) and Mattison (180) racked up the most rush attempts without a TD in the NFL last season. The latter back hilariously converted nine carries inside the five-yard line into negative seven yards and (of course) zero scores. … Dillon posted the position’s fifth-worst explosive run play rate in 2023. His yards per carry rate has dropped every season since entering the NFL (5.3, 4.3, 4.1, 3.4). … Hunt’s career-worst efficiency numbers are somewhat explained by him playing through the pain of an adductor injury last season. He should be 100% by the preseason. Still, the ex-Chiefs talent turns 29 in August and was used as more of a short-yardage specialist than anything in 2023. … Foreman, Murray and Harris stand out as early-down specialists who are unlikely to earn more than a committee role, if that, in 2024. … A similar sentiment is true for McKinnon, CEH and Edmonds but in terms of pass-downs. … Akers was already struggling to post decent efficiency numbers following his return to action from his FIRST Achilles injury. No RB to date that we know of in the NFL has returned from bilateral Achilles tears. … Scott and Penny were largely afterthoughts with the Eagles in 2023. The former has largely only been a solid producer when playing the Giants over the years, while the latter didn’t seem to be his usual explosive self in his return from a 2022 broken fibula. …  Breida was FAST fast during his prime, but turned 29 in February and hasn’t managed to earn triple-digit touches in a single season since 2019.