Freedman's Best Bets. Top Picks Against The Spread For NFL Week 11.

The good news is that I broke even (minus the vig) on sides and totals last week. The better news is that I was once again profitable on player props. The bad news is that I went 1-2 on the spread bets highlighted in this piece. 

Moving on…

Reminder: Here’s what you’re getting with this piece.

1. My projected spreads for each game (as of Wednesday morning).
2. My QB value chart (as of Wednesday morning).
3. A list of my favorite spread bets for the week (as of writing).
4. Brief notes on my favorite bets (no more than a few short paragraphs on each bet).
5. Even briefer notes (hopefully) on other games that have my eye (for whatever reason).
6. A few general thoughts on candidates for picks contests.

Freedman’s Week 11 Projections Against the Spread

I have two projection models. The first is my personal one. It’s the full Freedman: 100% me. Unadulterated. It’s probably too aggressive. 

The second model is my “official” one, which blends my personal projections with other inputs. It’s more measured and presentable — and that’s the model I’m using to create these “official” spread projections for Week 11, ordered according to kickoff time.

Projections and consensus odds as of 7:15 a.m. ET Wednesday, Nov. 15. Edge” is how many points of value I see for the listed team. A positive edge is good. A negative edge is bad.

Freedman’s Week 11 QB Value Chart

Here’s my updated QB value chart, which directly compares the ATS value of the starter to his backup. In creating this chart, I’ve relied partially on the work of Ben Fawkes and Robby Greer.

A few notable items.

• The trade for Joshua Dobbs continues to pay dividends for the Vikings as he distinguishes himself with his quality play from rookie fifth-rounder Jaren Hall.
• Tommy DeVito is bad … but the fact that the Giants aren’t even thinking about going with veteran Matt Barkley doesn’t speak well for him.
• Will Levis has looked good for a rookie, but he’s still not quite at Ryan Tannehill’s ATS level yet. I expect him to get there relatively soon.
• Bryce Young is wallowing in the sub-Andy Dalton zone. Not good.
• Fourth-round rookie Aidan O’Connell isn’t a DeVito-esque disaster — but he’s not yet the player that veteran Jimmy Garoppolo is.

Note: This will be the last week I present the QB ATS value chart, because now it’s available on the site, where I will maintain it each week.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 11 Bets

Here are my favorite bets currently. For all the bets I’ve made for the week, check out our 100% FREE bet tracker.

• Steelers +4 at Browns (-110, DraftKings)
• Bills -7 vs. Jets (-110, BetMGM)
• Chiefs -2.5 vs. Eagles (-110, FanDuel)

Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use. (I don’t want to clutter up the intro by listing them all here.)

Steelers +4 at Browns (-110, DraftKings)

Editor's note: this game was written prior to Deshaun Watson being ruled out for the season. Freedman is still on board with the current line of Steelers +1.5 and the analysis stands.

The Steelers have been one of the league’s luckiest teams, but this is a divisional game in the ANF North, which means it’s likely to be a tight contest.

The Browns are probably the better team — and I have them power rated +1.75 points better than the Steelers — but the Browns are dealing with significant injuries on their offensive line and in their secondary, which serves to even this matchup out.

And then the situational spot favors the Steelers. HC Mike Tomlin is 57-42-4 ATS (12.3% ROI, per Action Network) in division and 57-32-4 ATS (24.3% ROI) as an underdog. As a divisional underdog … 23-8-2 ATS (40.3% ROI).

Compare that to Browns HC Kevin Stefanski (and fill-in HC Mike Priefer, who subbed in twice for Stefanski when he had Covid), who is 8-15 ATS (-33% ROI) in division and 12-20 ATS (-26.7% ROI) as a favorite. As a divisional favorite … 2-8 ATS (-61.0% ROI).  

Against Stefanski (and Priefer, who had a great 48-37 playoff win against Tomlin in the 2020-21 season), Tomlin is 6-2 ATS (41.7% ROI).

This is the precise spot in which Tomlin tends to overperform and Stefanski underperform.

• Original Bet: +4.5 (-109)
• Projection: +2.1
• Cutoff: +3 (-110)

You can tail the Steelers at DraftKings, where you can get $200 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place an initial bet of $5 or more:

Bills -7 vs. Jets (-110, BetMGM)

Note: I am yet to bet Bills -7. I’m waiting to see if it moves to -6.5, where I hope to bet it. If it stays at -7, I will probably bet it there. If it moves to -7.5 and I can still grab a -7 at a slow-acting book, great. If not, I’ll either include the -7.5 in a teaser or lay off.

The Bills just fired OC Ken Dorsey — but the offense isn’t really the problem.

The problem is the defense.

Fortunately for them, they’re facing a Jets offense that seems unlikely to exploit their defensive inadequacies.

And with new OC Joe Brady — the passing game coordinator and WRs coach for the 2019 LSU team that launched QB Joe Burrow and WRs Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase — maybe the offense will be a little more innovative.

Entering last week, the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings had the Bills at No. 3 (+6.36) and the Jets at No. 26 (-2.62). Not enough has changed since then to justify a spread this tight.  

• Projection: -7.6
• Cutoff: -7 (-110)

You can tail the Bills at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win. Simply sign up below to claim your offer!

Chiefs -2.5 vs. Eagles (-110, FanDuel)

I’m a simple person. 

In this game, I have the opportunity to bet on QB Patrick Mahomes — at home — as a favorite of less than a field goal. Whenever getting points or laying less than three, Mahomes is 20-6-1 ATS (47.5% ROI).

I expect that the team will look better on offense coming out of the bye — given how well HC Andy Reid has utilized extra days in the past — and Mahomes now has a strong defense (No. 4 with -0.098 EPA, per RBs Don’t Matter) to lend support.

Nov 5, 2023; Frankfurt, Germany, ; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) drops back to pass against the Miami Dolphins in the first quarter during an NFL International Series game at Deutsche Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

The Eagles are as potent as ever on offense, and I expect QB Jalen Hurts to be healthier off the bye, but the defense — under new DC Sean Desai — has been mediocre this year (-0.006 EPA, No. 19).

I think that’s the difference in this game.

• Original Bet: -2.5 (-110)
• Projection: -3.1
• Cutoff: -2.5 (-120)

You can tail the Chiefs on FanDuel, where you can get $200 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place a first bet of $5 or more!

Week 11 Games That Have My Attention

Bengals +4 at Ravens

Bengals QB Joe Burrow is 11-5 ATS (32.2% ROI) as a road underdog. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is 13-22 ATS (-27.3% ROI) as a home favorite.

Cowboys -10.5 at Panthers

The Cowboys are 6-1 ATS (63.3% ROI) as favorites this year. Against inferior opponents, they’re taking care of business. The Panthers are 2-6-1 ATS (-46.5% ROI).

Lions -9.5 vs. Bears

This line touched -10 but has moved back toward the Bears with increasing optimism that QB Justin Fields (thumb) will return to action this week. If this hits -8.5 across the market — and it’s already there at a couple sharper books — I’ll be interested in teasing the Lions.

Cardinals +4 at Texans

The Cardinals looked like a different team last week with the return of QB Kyler Murray, who is 13-5-2 ATS (36.0% ROI) as a road underdog. Let’s see how they look this week.

Dolphins -12.5 vs. Raiders

The Dolphins are basically the AFC version of the Cowboys: They’re 5-0 ATS (90.6% ROI) as favorites. Against outclassed opponents, they outperform expectations.

Commanders -10 vs. Giants

Gross.

Broncos -2 vs. Vikings

I lean toward the Broncos right now — but if Vikings WR Justin Jefferson returns then I wouldn’t touch them at the current number.

Freedman’s Week 11 Contest Picks

Various sportsbooks (such as the SuperBook Circa, and DraftKings) run season-long contests in which participants pick five games each week, and whoever has the most ATS victories at the end of the season wins.

I’m participating in a contest at DraftKings, and here’s my record.

• Week 10: 5-0
• 2023: 32-18

Based on the current consensus odds and my projections, here are a few general thoughts on the DraftKings contest for Week 11.

Note: Some of my thoughts will probably change based on line movement, news and additional research.

• I expect longer underdogs (Panthers, Bears, Raiders, Giants, Buccaneers) to have minimal exposure in the contest.
• I think the Cowboys will be popular despite the large spread.
• I anticipate that several short favorites (Chargers, Seahawks, Broncos) will have low pick rates.

Abbreviations

• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Return on Investment (ROI)
• Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success Rate (SR)
• Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)

Previous Best Bets Pieces

My previous best bets pieces can be found on my author page.