Freedman's Best Bets. Top Picks Against The Spread For NFL Week 12.

It’s Wednesday morning: I’ve got a lot to do today before spending all my time eating on Thursday and drinking on Friday.

No time for an intro.

Reminder: Here’s what you’re getting with this piece.

1. My projected spreads for each game (as of Wednesday morning).
2. Notes on my QB value chart (as of Wednesday morning).
3. A list of my favorite spread bets for the week, not counting Thanksgiving (as of writing).
4. Brief notes on my favorite bets (no more than a few short paragraphs on each bet).
5. Even briefer notes (hopefully) on other games that have my eye (for whatever reason).
6. A few general thoughts on candidates for picks contests.

Freedman’s Week 12 Projections Against the Spread

I have two projection models. The first is my personal one. It’s the full Freedman: 100% me. Unadulterated. It’s probably too aggressive. 

The second model is my “official” one, which blends my personal projections with other inputs. It’s more measured and presentable — and that’s the model I’m using to create these “official” spread projections for Week 12, ordered according to kickoff time.

Projections and consensus odds as of Wed. 11/22 at 7:00 am ET. “Edge” is how many points of value I see for the listed team. A positive edge is good. A negative edge is bad.

Freedman’s Week 12 QB Value Chart

Here are some notes on my updated QB value chart, which directly compares the ATS value of the starter to his backup. In creating this chart, I’ve relied partially on the work of Ben Fawkes and Robby Greer.

A few notable items.

• I have the dropoff from Joe Burrow to Jake Browning as -6.4 points, which is one of the largest starter/backup deltas in the league. Maybe Browning will drastically outperform my expectations — but he also could be worse than expected. Without Burrow, the Bengals are a decidedly below-average team.
• Dorian Thompson-Robinson has a putrid 1.4 AY/A, but all but one of his pass attempts have come against the Ravens and Steelers. He might be better than he has looked so far, and I have him as just a -0.5 downgrade on P.J. Walker.
• The return of Nick Mullens makes Joshua Dobbs less relatively valuable — but trading for him was still one of the league’s sharpest GM moves this year.
• There’s QB uncertainty with the Patriots: I have Mac Jones as +1.4 points better than Bailey Zappe, but there’s no guarantee either of them will be the starter by the end of the year.
• Tommy DeVito: I guess he’s an NFL QB.
• The downgrade from Taylor Heinicke to Desmond Ridder is -0.2 points. Heinicke offers more variance, but it probably doesn’t matter who starts at QB for the Falcons.
• I still have Will Levis rated below Ryan Tannehill: He has potential, but the Titans seem to be operating around instead of through him.
• There are worse QBs than Zach Wilson in the NFL … and Tim Boyle is one of them.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 12 Bets

Here are my favorite non-Thanksgiving bets currently. For all the bets I’ve made for the week, check out our 100% FREE bet tracker.

• Colts -2.5 vs. Buccaneers (-110, BetMGM)
• Patriots -3 at Giants (-112, Unibet)
• Broncos -2.5 vs. Browns (-110, DraftKings)

Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use. (I don’t want to clutter up the intro by listing them all here.)

Colts -2.5 vs. Buccaneers (-110, BetMGM)

Note: I haven’t bet Colts -2.5 yet, as I’m waiting to see the early injury reports for the Buccaneers.

Almost all of the difference between my projection and the market is due to injuries for the Buccaneers. 

The Bucs exited Week 11 with injury uncertainty surrounding four key players in their back seven: LB Lavonte David (groin), CBs Jamel Dean (foot) and CB Carlton Davis (hip) and FS Ryan Neal (thumb).

Nov 5, 2023; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (28) celebrates with guard Quenton Nelson (56) and center Ryan Kelly (78) after scoring a touchdown in the second quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

If even just two of those guys miss Week 12, the Buccaneers could be exploitable in pass defense — and there’s a chance that all four could be out.

Plus, the Colts are coming off the bye, and this will be the fourth road game in five weeks for the Buccaneers.

• Projection: -3.5
• Cutoff: -2.5 (-120)

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Patriots -3 at Giants (-112, Unibet)

Note: I haven’t bet Patriots -3 yet because I’m waiting for clarity at the QB position. If someone other than Mac Jones is announced as the starter, I’d expect this line to get shorter.

The Patriots might be in disarray, but I still believe that HC Bill Belichick has the ability to give the “seeing ghosts” treatment to a rookie QB with two NFL starts and an obscene 21.6% sack rate.

The Giants will likely try to rely on RB Saquon Barkley, but the Patriots are No. 2 in defensive rush success rate (33.1%, per RBs Don’t Matter).

With Tommy DeVito, the Giants could struggle mightily to extend drives against the Patriots, who are coming off the bye.

• Projection: -4.4
• Cutoff: -3 (-120)

Broncos -2.5 vs. Browns (-110, DraftKings)

For the season, the Broncos are No. 32 in defensive EPA (0.90) and SR (47.8%). Now, the defense has notably improved since Week 6.

• Weeks 1-5: 0.225 EPA (No. 32)
• Weeks 6-11: -0.051 EPA (No. 12)

But the defense is still terrible on a down-to-down basis.

• Weeks 1-5: 48.8% SR (No. 31)
• Weeks 6-11: 46.7% SR (No. 31)

Since Week 6, the defense has simply transformed itself from a broken unit to one that bends. While that’s an improvement, this defense can still be moved on.

But here’s the thing: I doubt that Browns QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson is the guy to move an offense.

If I can bet against a rookie QB at less than a field goal on the road in Denver, where the Broncos have a long-established significant home-field advantage, I’m probably going to do it.

• Original Bet: -2.5 (-110)
• Projection: +3.3
• Cutoff: -3 (-110)

You can tail the Broncos at DraftKings, where you can get $200 in bonus bets when you sign up below and bet at least $5!

Week 12 Games That Have My Attention

Lions -7.5 vs. Packers

I haven’t bet this yet because I’m waiting. If it falls to -7, I’d bet the Lions there. If it stays at -7.5 or moves up to -8 or -8.5, then I’ll tease the Lions down.

Cowboys -11 vs. Commanders

If there’s a sharp side in this game, it’s probably the Commanders as big road dogs coming off a loss in which they were big favorites now going against a home team off a blowout victory — but I still lean toward the Cowboys, even at this inflated number.

49ers -7 at Seahawks

Even with the optimism that QB Geno Smith (elbow) will start for the Seahawks, this number has bounced back to -7 after testing -6.5. That seems significant.

Jaguars -1.5 at Texans

My projections show a little value on the Jaguars, but if I take a position on this game I will probably invest in the Texans via teaser.

Saints +1 at Falcons

If either side gets out to +1.5, I’ll be tempted to tease.

Rams Pick’Em at Cardinals

My projection likes the Rams, but there’s a chance I’ve been too slow to adjust the Cardinals up with the return of QB Kyler Murray.

Bills +3.5 at Eagles

Almost every sharp bettor I know likes the Bills in this spot. And that scares me a little, because it hasn’t been a great year for sharps.

Chiefs -8.5 at Raiders

As soon as I’m done writing this piece, I’m teasing this one down to -2.5. I think I’ll probably pair it with Lions -1.5.

Chargers +3.5 vs. Ravens

The Chargers are the sharp side, and my projections lean that way, but I really don’t want to invest in HC Brandon Staley.

Freedman’s Week 12 Contest Picks

Various sportsbooks (such as the SuperBook, Circa and DraftKings) run season-long contests in which participants pick five games each week, and whoever has the most ATS victories at the end of the season wins.

I’m participating in a contest at DraftKings, and here’s my record.

• Week 11: 4-1
• 2023: 36-19

Based on the current consensus odds and my projections, here are a few general thoughts on the DraftKings contest for Week 12.

Note: Some of my thoughts will probably change based on line movement, news, and additional research.

• I expect longer underdogs (Packers, Commanders, Seahawks, Jets and Raiders) to have minimal exposure in the contest.
• I think the Thanksgiving and Black Friday favorites (Lions, Cowboys, 49ers and Dolphins) will be very popular despite their large spreads.
• I anticipate that several short favorites (Jaguars, Steelers, Falcons, Colts and Broncos) will have low pick rates.

Abbreviations

• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Return on Investment (ROI)
• Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success Rate (SR)
• Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)

Previous Best Bets Pieces

My previous best bets pieces can be found on my author page.