Last week I paid the vig on spreads and totals (4-4, -0.27 units), and I’m honestly pleased it went that well.

At this time of the year, the edges — if they exist at all — are thin.

That said, I have no regrets on any of my Divisional Round bets: With so few games left in the season, I’m going to scratch the betting itch while I still can.

With that in mind, I already have side and total bets for the AFC and NFC Championships.

Since Thanksgiving, I’ve seen the board especially well with spreads: 34-18-1 ATS (+13.0 units) with no week below .500.

Given that the market has moved my direction on the four conference championship bets, I’m cautiously hopeful that we’ll have a positive week.

I plan to add a number of props to my card as we approach kickoff. For all my positions, check out our 100% FREE bet tracker.

Let’s get into it.

Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use. (I don’t want to clutter up the intro by listing them here.)

Projections and consensus odds as of 1 p.m. ET Tuesday, Jan. 23. 

Chiefs at Ravens

  • Market: Ravens -3.5 | 44.5 O/U | ML: Chiefs +150, Ravens -180
  • Projections: Ravens -4.75 | 42.4 O/U | Chiefs +206.5, Ravens -206.5

Chiefs at Ravens: Side Analysis

As I noted in the Monday Betting Life Newsletter, No. 1 seeds have been the most profitable ATS bet of the past 20 years and one of the most profitable ML bets (per Action Network).

  • No. 1 Seed: 16-11 ATS (14.3% ROI) | 21-6 ML (18.7% ROI)
  • No. 2 Seed: 11-15 ATS (-16.9% ROI) | 8-18 ML (-46.8% ROI)
  • No. 3 Seed: 4-3 ATS (11.6% ROI) | 2-5 ML (-36.9% ROI)
  • No. 4 Seed: 4-4 ATS (-1.9% ROI) | 5-3 ML (73.5% ROI)
  • No. 5 Seed: 2-3 ATS (-18.6% ROI) | 2-3 ML (35.2% ROI)
  • No. 6 Seed: 3-4 ATS (-14.8% ROI) | 2-5 ML (-43.4% ROI)
  • No. 7 Seed: NA

Middling seeds have had some ML success over the past two decades, but for the most part the conference championships have been ruled by the league’s top teams.

And that makes sense: The No. 1 seeds that make it this far have shaken off any Divisional Round rust, and they get a second straight home game. They’re often in peak form and relatively rested.

They’re almost always favored (for good reason), and the AFC and NFC Championships have been profitable in general for home favorites.

  • ATS: 19-15 (8.2% ROI)
  • ML: 25-9 (6.5% ROI)

And that has been especially the case for No. 1 seeds.

  • ATS: 14-9 (17.6% ROI)
  • ML: 19-4 (19.9% ROI)

All of this doesn’t mean that we should blindly bet on the Ravens … but I like them this week.

Matt LaMarca and I broke down this game extensively on the “Early Look” episode of the Betting Life Show.

Last week — when I was looking ahead to this week and already anticipating that the Chiefs would still be in the playoffs — I expected that I would be on them and QB Patrick Mahomes against the Ravens.

After all, I bet Chiefs +3 last week.

As I noted in my Divisional Round best bets piece, Mahomes for his career has offered significantly more value away from Arrowhead Stadium than at home.

  • Home: 28-29-1 ATS (-4.5% ROI) | 45-13 ML (0.8% ROI)
  • Road/Neutral: 31-21-2 (15.5% ROI) | 42-12 ML (25.5% ROI)

And his performance as an underdog is nearly legendary.

  • ATS Underdog: 9-1-1 | 69.8% ROI | +7.09 margin
  • ML Underdog: 8-3 | 76.3% ROI | +4.09 margin

As a dog away from Arrowhead, he’s 9-0-1 ATS (86.7% ROI) and 8-2 ML (93.9% ROI).

“Mahomes in the postseason” is a legitimate thing. This is the time of year when he most outperforms expectations.

  • Regular Season: 48-45-3 ATS (0.6% ROI) | 74-22 ML (10.4% ROI)
  • Postseason: 11-5 ATS (32.4% ROI) | 13-3 ML (26.2% ROI)

Again — I wanted to be on Mahomes this week. I certainly didn’t want to be against him.

But then some sportsbooks opened with the Ravens at a gently juiced -3, and I had to take it.

Last week, the Bills hosting the Chiefs were favored between -2.5 and -3 for most of the week. Now, the Ravens hosting the Chiefs are favored between -3 and -3.5. That makes no sense, as the Ravens are significantly better than the Bills.

On top of that, it’s not just “hosting the Chiefs.” The Ravens aren’t merely at home. They’re playing their fourth straight home game — with a bye week thrown in.

The last time they played on the road was Christmas, when they dominated the 49ers on Monday Night Football.

So the Ravens haven’t had to travel in a month, two weeks ago they got a bye, and now they have an extra day of rest coming off a game on Saturday.

Compare that to the Chiefs, who have their second road home in a row and third in four weeks. And they don’t have even a full seven days between games because they played on Sunday night and now kick off in the afternoon.

When you take home-field advantage, rest and travel into account, the market is saying that the Ravens and Chiefs are not far from being evenly matched, and what we’ve seen this season leads me to believe otherwise.

Last week, the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings had the Ravens at No. 1 (+11.07) and Chiefs at No. 6 (+5.05). The Chiefs should get a boost after beating the Bills — but the Ravens also might get a boost after dominating the Texans, who didn’t score an offensive TD. The Ravens legitimately might be +6 points better than the Chiefs in a neutral setting, +3 at the absolute lowest. When you add in circumstances, I wouldn’t blame anyone for projecting Ravens -7.

And here’s the thing about a potential upgrade for the Chiefs: They’ve looked good on offense over the past two weeks — and the postseason is when Mahomes always seems to ball out — but the Chiefs put up points (26, 27) against Dolphins and Bills defenses that were notably injured.

We can’t be certain that what we’ve seen out of the Chiefs offense in the playoffs is representative of what it will do this week against the Ravens, who are No. 2 in defensive EPA (-0.031), per RBs Don’t Matter).

I think the Chiefs offense will be especially challenged in the pass game. With do-it-all first-team All-Pro SS Kyle Hamilton, the Ravens have the perfect defender to match up with TE Travis Kelce. And the Ravens have used Hamilton this year as their primary slot defender, so when he’s not facing Kelce he’ll often be on rookie WR Rashee Rice.

So if Hamilton is on either Kelce or Rice for almost every play, and if the Ravens defense brackets the other guy, who is Mahomes throwing to? WR Mecole Hardman (cough)?!

Plus, I’m projecting the Ravens to be without No. 1 CB Marlon Humphrey (calf), but I might be wrong. And if he returns, that could be a massive problem for the Chiefs, as he’s one of the league’s few shadow-capable cover men who can tail No. 1 WRs into the slot.

If Humphrey returns, and if he mans up Rice while Hamilton sticks with Kelce, the Chiefs offense could collapse.

The Chiefs are strong on defense — No. 5 in EPA (-0.070) — particularly against the pass, ranking No. 3 in dropback SR (40.0%) and No. 4 in EPA (-0.092).

But they’re No. 28 in defensive rush EPA (-0.031). They can be exploited on the ground — and this year the Ravens offense was No. 1 in rushing attempts (541) and rushing yards (2,661) and is No. 3 in rush EPA (0.015) and SR (45.0%).

Jan 20, 2024; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) runs the ball to score a touchdown against Houston Texans defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins (98) during the fourth quarter of a 2024 AFC divisional round game at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Just last week, the Ravens rushed for 229 yards against the Texans, who entered the game No. 1 in defensive rush SR (33.3%). Their run game is dominant, and in QB Lamar Jackson they might have the league’s most dynamic runner. They have an excellent chance to control the ball while moving it efficiently against the Chiefs.

In his three games against the Chiefs since 2019, when DC Steve Spagnuolo joined the team, Jackson has 33-236-3 rushing. He had 11-100-2 last week. He has a real shot to hit 100 again on Sunday.

And then factor in the injury situations. The Ravens are likely to get back their top pass catcher in TE Mark Andrews (ankle, IR), while on defense the Chiefs could be significantly vulnerable up the middle, as DT Derrick Nnadi (elbow), LB Willie Gay (neck) and FS Mike Edwards (concussion) are dealing with injuries.

Finally, on offense, the Chiefs might be without first-team All-Pro LG Joe Thuney (chest), who exited last week with an injury. That’s less than ideal when going against the defense that was No. 1 in the league in sacks (60).

I don’t want to bet against Mahomes and the Chiefs, and in projecting the availability of injured players this week I put my thumb on the scale in their favor as much as I reasonably could.

But even then I still see too many reasons to back the Ravens.

Am I nervous about betting on Jackson as a home favorite? Yes. He has been a suboptimal producer in this spot.

  • ATS Home Favorite: 16-23 | -20.2% ROI
  • ML Home Favorite: 29-10 | -1.3% ROI

But -3 is just too short for the Ravens. Given how important that is as a key number, I doubt I’d bet them at -3.5, but at the current odds I think they still have ML value.

Think about how well the Ravens performed earlier this year against the other two teams playing this weekend: They beat the Lions 38-6 in Week 7 and the 49ers 33-19 in Week 16.

I doubt the Chiefs will lose in a blowout, but Mahomes will probably need to be at the peak of his powers for the Ravens not to secure the win.

Chiefs at Ravens: Total Analysis

I bet under 45 and still like it at 44.5. It’s one of my favorite bets on the board.

Since 2003, outdoor unders in the postseason are 101-77-5 (9.6% ROI).

And more importantly, we have two top-six defenses, a Chiefs offense that underwhelmed for the entirety of the season, and a Ravens offense that should be able to grind the clock down with its running attack.

The Chiefs have been the league’s most extreme under team this year.

  • Under: 13-6
  • ROI: 30.8%
  • Margin: +6.34   

And the Chiefs have been even more profitable on second-half unders.

  • Under: 17-2
  • ROI: 72.3%
  • Margin: +7.68   

That makes sense to me. The Chiefs have a strong defense that can make halftime adjustments. The Chiefs offense, though, is less capable of making meaningful changes at the half.

If the Chiefs enter the third quarter with a lead, they have neither the ability nor the inclination on offense to pile on the points. And if the Chiefs trail, they’re vulnerable enough with their rush defense to allow opponents to run the clock and decrease the number of possessions in the game.

As much as I like under 44.5, I probably like 2H under 22.5 even more.

Chiefs at Ravens: Bets

  • Logged Bets: Ravens -3 (-115), Under 45 (still like at 44.5), 2H Under 22.5 (-115)
  • Potential Bet: Ravens -185 (DraftKings), if a juiced -3 doesn’t reappear

You can tail the Ravens at DraftKings, where you can get $200 INSTANTLY in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of just $5 or more!

Lions at 49ers

  • Market: 49ers -7 | 51 O/U | ML: Lions +250, 49ers -310
  • Projections: 49ers -6.9 | 51.9 O/U | Lions +291, 49ers -291

Lions at 49ers: Side Analysis

I bet -6.5 when this market first posted, but I wouldn’t touch -7.

And if we had more than two games this week, there’s a chance I wouldn’t have bet the -6.5. But I do lean toward the 49ers in this spot.

To start, 49ers HC Kyle Shanahan has crushed as a home favorite in the postseason.

  • Postseason ATS: 4-1 | 54.1% ROI | +4.7 margin
  • Postseason ML: 5-0 | 29.7% ROI | +12.4 margin

And QB Brock Purdy — one of my conference championship fantasy favorites — was No. 1 this year in AY/A (9.9), composite EPA + CPOE (0.204), and QBR (72.7, per ESPN).

I’m skeptical that WR Deebo Samuel (shoulder) will play this week, and much has been made of how Purdy has disappointed in the four games Samuel has missed or exited early with injury this year.

In those games, the 49ers are 0-4 ATS (-100% ROI) and 1-3 ML (-70.1% ROI), and Purdy has markedly underperformed across the sample.

  • At Browns (Week 6): 125 yards, one TD | one INT | 3.7 AY/A | 19-17 loss
  • At Vikings (Week 7): 272 yards, one TD | two INTs | 6.7 AY/A | 22-17 loss
  • Bengals (Week 8): 365 yards, one TD | two INT | 9.5 AY/A | 31-17 loss
  • Packers (Divisional Round): 252 yards, one TD | zero INTs | 7.0 AY/A | 24-21 win

Here’s the thing: Each of these performances can be meaningfully contextualized.

Against the Browns, Purdy was on the road and dealing with significant rain, 15-mph wind and the league’s best defense (-0.138 EPA, No. 1).

Against the Vikings, Purdy was on the road for a second straight week and facing a blitz-happy defense without first-team All-Pro LT Trent Williams.

Against the Bengals, Purdy was once again without Williams — but he was still prolific (365 yards) and efficient (9.5 AY/A). The 49ers lost and Purdy threw two INTs, but that wasn’t a terrible performance.

Against the Packers, Purdy again battled the elements, primarily a steadfast rain and also a little wind (eight mph).

Purdy’s poor Samuel-less numbers (in my opinion) probably had less to do with the absent WR than with other circumstances that don’t apply this weekend: He’s at home for the second week in a row. The 49ers have had just one road game since Christmas. Purdy has an extra day of rest. Williams is healthy. And Levi’s Stadium has a benign forecast: a high temperature of 72 degrees with wind of six mph and no rain.

Dec 25, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) runs the ball against the Baltimore Ravens in the fourth quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Purdy isn’t an elite QB, but I think the version of him we’ll see this weekend is good enough to exploit a favorable matchup, and that’s what he has against the Lions, who are No. 27 in defensive dropback EPA (0.099) and have allowed QBs Matthew Stafford (367 yards, two TDs) and Baker Mayfield (349 yards, three TDs, two INTs) to go off over the past two weeks.

And I don’t like this spot for Lions QB Jared Goff, who has significant indoor/outdoor splits.

  • Indoors: 276.6 yards per game | 8.7 AY/A
  • Outdoors: 252.2 yards per game | 6.1 AY/A

And these same splits are evident in his career ATS and ML numbers.

  • Indoors: 36-17 ATS (30.4% ROI) | 30-23 ML (7.6% ROI)
  • Outdoors: 34-35-2 ATS (-3.8% ROI) | 40-30-1 ML (-6.1% ROI)

Indoors, Goff has been a wonderfully profitable QB to back. Outdoors, he has been a vig trap, and his matchup is bad: The 49ers are No. 5 in defensive dropback EPA (-0.047).

I can see how the Lions might be able to have success on the ground: RBs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are a strong duo, and the 49ers are No. 27 in defensive rush SR (41.9%).

But if Goff isn’t at his best, it will be hard for the Lions — winning only on the ground — to keep pace with the 49ers, who should be able to win through the air.

Lions at 49ers: Total Analysis

I bet over 50.5 and still lean to the over at 51.

As noted previously, I don’t think the four prior Samuel-less games are representative of what we’ll see this week. Those games arguably had more to do with the weather and Williams than Samuel.

And Week 18 was meaningless because the 49ers rested key players.

But in the team’s 13 remaining games the 49ers averaged 32.3 points per game and 3.11 points per drive. They probably won’t be that prolific without Samuel, but 30 points is attainable, and they have the upside for more.

It doesn’t hurt that Lions games are 12-7 (20.4% ROI) to the over this year.

Also, I haven’t bet the first-half over (24.5, -110) — but I’m thinking about it.

The 1H over is 12-6 (28.3% ROI) in 49ers games, and I can imagine both teams starting fast with their scripted plays.

Lions at 49ers: Bets

  • Logged Bets: 49ers -6.5, Over 50.5 (still like at 51)
  • Potential Bet: 1H Over 24.5 (-110)

Abbreviations

  • Against the Spread (ATS)
  • Moneyline (ML)
  • Over/Under (O/U)
  • Return on Investment (ROI)
  • Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
  • Expected Points Added (EPA)
  • Success Rate (SR)
  • Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)

Previous Best Bets Pieces

My previous best bets pieces can be found on my author page.

Freedman's Best Bets