In the words of Jim Morrison: “Get together one more time.”

A single game remains.

The Super Bowl.

Chiefs. 49ers. Again.

Let’s do the thing.

Freedman’s Favorites for the Super Bowl

Here are my preliminary Super Bowl favorites. These are the guys who (in some combination) …

  • Might be high in my fantasy rankings relative to the industry consensus.
  • Possess underappreciated upside.
  • Have advantageous matchups.
  • Appear in my DFS player pool.
  • Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
  • Are on teams with player-friendly betting odds.
  • Catch my eye with their player projections.
  • Stand out in our player prop tool.

Some notes.

  • Updates: After I submit this piece (on Tuesday morning), I won’t make any updates here. Rather, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my rankings and my projections, which I will periodically update throughout the week.
     
  • Ranking Accuracy: I didn’t have a great year in the FantasyPros accuracy contest but stormed back in the final weeks to finish No. 18. That gives me six top-20 seasons in total. Not terrible. 
     
  • Scoring & Ordering: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players are ordered within position roughly (but probably not precisely) according to my rankings as of writing.
     
  • Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use. (I don’t want to clutter up the intro by listing them all here.)
     
  • Sports Betting Data: Odds are as of 11 am ET on Tuesday, Jan. 30, and based on the official Unabated Lines (the best representation of a market-making sportsbook consensus).

Freedman’s Favorite Conference Championship QB

Brock Purdy (49ers) vs. Chiefs

  • 49ers: -1.5
  • O/U: 47.5
  • TT: 24.5 (No. 1)

Neither QB has a great setup: Both defenses are strong against the pass, so the matchups are difficult anyway -- and then both defenses are vulnerable against the run, so both teams will have all the more incentive to rely on the ground game.

Given the overall negative passing environment, I’m choosing to highlight the player I think is already undervalued.

In spotlighting Purdy, I’m not saying he’ll have a better fantasy performance than Patrick Mahomes (although he might). Rather, I’m saying that Purdy might hold his own, at least relative to his reputation.

He’s not an elite QB, but I swear by the gods of gambling that the guy is more than just a game manager.

He’s aided by the system and the playmakers he has around him, but in the NFC Championship he made plays out of structure and helped the 49ers -- for the second week in a row -- come back from the brink of defeat to secure victory.

Again, the matchup is tough: The Chiefs are No. 3 in defensive dropback EPA (-0.103) and SR (40.0%, per RBs Don’t Matter).

But the 49ers are fully healthy on offense, Purdy has shown a willingness in the postseason to pick up yardage with his legs (11-62-0 rushing, two games), and this year he has been No. 1 in AY/A (9.9), composite EPA + CPOE (0.194), and QBR (72.7, per ESPN).

Say whatever you want about Purdy’s talent and those numbers, but the previous two second-year QBs to put up stats like that were Mahomes and Lamar Jackson.

There’s a reason Purdy’s playing in the Super Bowl.

Freedman’s Favorite Super Bowl RB

Isiah Pacheco (Chiefs) vs. 49ers

  • Chiefs: +1.5
  • O/U: 47.5
  • TT: 23 (No. 2)

Christian McCaffrey is obviously the best RB in this game -- because he’s the best in the league -- but what’s the point in highlighting McCaffrey?

Besides, Pacheco in his own right could have a big performance.

He entered the AFC Championship dealing with ankle and toe injuries, but he played through his questionable tag last week to earn 24 carries and four targets.

With extra rest, he should see a full workload in the Super Bowl, and in his eight games since the Week 10 bye -- seven of which have been without No. 2 RB Jerick McKinnon (groin, IR) -- Pacheco has 775 yards and eight TDs on 144 carries and 27 targets.

If the Chiefs can control the ball, there’s a real non-zero chance Pacheco could out-touch McCaffrey, and it’s not as if the Chiefs have no chance to control the ball. Even though they’re underdogs, I expect them to keep this game competitive, and an outright win would not be surprising: Mahomes as an underdog is 10-1-1 ATS (71.4% ROI) and 9-3 ML (85.3% ROI, per Action Network).

And the matchup for Pacheco is actually good: The 49ers are No. 30 in defensive rush success rate (42.9%). Last week, they allowed 182 yards rushing to the Lions. The week before that, 136 to the Packers.

If the Chiefs decide they want to run as relentlessly as possible, the 49ers will need to be at their best to stop them.

Freedman’s Favorite Super Bowl WRs

Deebo Samuel (49ers) vs. Chiefs

  • 49ers: -1.5
  • O/U: 47.5
  • TT: 24.5 (No. 1)

Throughout the season, the WRs who have most consistently given the Chiefs problems are those with inside/outside versatility. For example, in the playoffs the guys to best the Chiefs have been Tyreek Hill (5-62-1, eight targets), Khalil Shakir (7-44-1, nine), and Zay Flowers (5-115-1, eight).

The WRs who move across the formation have the best chance of finding exploitable matchups against DC Steve Spagnuolo’s man-heavy scheme, and that’s Samuel.

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Jan 28, 2024; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel (19) celebrates after winning the NFC Championship football game against the Detroit Lions at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Per usual, he has had a circuitous path this season: He exited Week 6 with a shoulder injury, missed Weeks 7-8, played in a diminished role in his Week 10 return, left Week 18 early in a meaningless game, and then sat out most of the Divisional Round after suffering another shoulder injury.

But he looked like his usual self in the NFC Championship (96 yards on nine targets, three carries), and the extra week of rest should do him good.

In his 13 full games this year, Samuel has 1,111 yards and 11 TDs on 91 targets and 34 carries.  

In his two previous matchups against the Chiefs (2019-20 Super Bowl, 2022 Week 7), Samuel amassed 16 targets and four carries.

Rashee Rice (Chiefs) vs. 49ers

  • Chiefs: +1.5
  • O/U: 47.5
  • TT: 23 (No. 2)

In the aftermath of the team’s aerially deficient 21-17 loss to the Eagles in Week 11, Rice has been the No. 1 WR for the Chiefs with an 82% route rate and 27% target share (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).

With that usage, he has racked up 63-741-4 receiving on 81 targets over the past nine games.

I like the matchup for Rice, who will be in a de facto shadow situation for much of the contest. Rice is the team’s primary receiver in the slot, where he has run 50.2% of his routes. And then when he’s on the perimeter, he lines up most out wide to the left, where he has run another 26.6% of his routes.

And that means for three-quarters of his routes Rice could face CB Deommodore Lenoir, who plays right corner in base formation and slot in nickel packages.

Since the 49ers shifted Lenoir from a perimeter-only role to his current hybrid position in Week 10, he has seen the best slot receivers he has faced have strong performances: Christian Kirk (6-104-0, 11 targets), Zay Flowers (9-72-1, 13), and last week Amon-Ra St. Brown (7-87-0, 11).

You can bet on a strong performance from Rice at BetMGM, where you can get $158 in bonus bets when you sign up below with promo code FANTASYLIFE and place your first bet of just $5 or more!

Freedman’s Favorite Super Bowl TE

Travis Kelce (Chiefs) vs. 49ers

  • Chiefs: +1.5
  • O/U: 47.5
  • TT: 23 (No. 2)

This year, Kelce had his most inefficient regular season ever (8.1 yards per target) and least productive season since 2016 (984 yards receiving).

Even so, Kelce in the playoffs is a different animal: He has a 30% target share this postseason. After resting in Week 18 and using it as a de facto bye, Kelce has been dominant with 23-262-3 receiving on 27 targets in the playoffs.

Since 2018, when QB Patrick Mahomes became the starter, Kelce has 133-1,516-18 receiving in 17 postseason games. Unreal.

And I like his matchup: Since the 49ers lost SS Talanoa Hufanga (knee, IR) in Week 11, they’ve allowed good performances to comparable-ish TEs Trey McBride (10-102-0, 11 targets), Isaiah Likely (3-56-0, four), and Sam LaPorta (9-97-0, 13).

Abbreviations

  • Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
  • Against the Spread (ATS)
  • Over/Under (O/U)
  • Team Total (TT)
  • Moneyline (ML)
  • Return on Investment (ROI)
  • Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
  • Expected Points Added (EPA)
  • Success Rate (SR)
  • Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
  • Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
  • AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
  • Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
  • Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
Freedman's Favorites