To quote Frodo: “I can't recall the taste of food, nor the sound of water, nor the touch of grass. I'm naked in the dark. There's nothing — no veil between me and the wheel of fire.”

The Cowboys are no longer in the playoffs.

Everything … is nothing.

Even so, the Divisional Round is always one of the best weekends of football.

I expect that once again to be the case this year.

Especially since the Cowboys can’t lose.

Sigh.

Freedman’s Favorites for the Divisional Round

Here are my preliminary Divisional Round favorites. These are the guys who (in some combination) …

  • Might be high in my fantasy rankings relative to the industry consensus.
  • Possess underappreciated upside.
  • Have advantageous matchups.
  • Appear in my DFS player pool.
  • Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
  • Are on teams with player-friendly betting odds.
  • Catch my eye with their player projections.
  • Stand out in our player prop tool.

Some notes.

Updates: After I submit this piece (on Wednesday morning), I won’t make any updates here. Rather, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my rankings and my projections, which I will periodically update throughout the week.

Ranking Accuracy: I didn’t have a great year in the FantasyPros accuracy contest but stormed back in the final weeks to finish No. 18. That gives me six top-20 seasons in total. Not terrible.

Scoring & Ordering: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players are ordered within position roughly (but probably not precisely) according to my rankings as of writing.

Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use. (I don’t want to clutter up the intro by listing them all here.)

Sports Betting Data: Odds are as of 12 am ET on Wednesday, Jan. 17, and based on the official Unabated Lines (the best representation of a market-making sportsbook consensus).

Freedman’s Favorite Divisional Round QBs

Brock Purdy (49ers) vs. Packers

  • 49ers: -9.5 
  • O/U: 51
  • TT: 30.25 (No. 1)

The 49ers are coming off the bye, they’re at home, and they’re facing a Packers team that is on short rest (six days), playing its fourth road game in five weeks, and No. 30 in defensive dropback SR (48.8%, per RBs Don’t Matter).

Dec 31, 2023; Landover, Maryland, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) warms up before the game against the Washington Commanders at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

It’s easy to belittle Purdy as a “system QB,” but within the 49ers system this year, he was No. 1 in AY/A (9.9), composite EPA + CPOE (0.204), and QBR (72.7, per ESPN).

He won’t win MVP, but those are MVP-caliber numbers, and he’s in a good spot this week.

Jared Goff (Lions) vs. Buccaneers

  • Lions: -6.5
  • O/U: 48.5
  • TT: 27.5 (No. 2)

I haven’t highlighted Goff in this piece since Week 10, when he had 333 yards and two TDs passing with a nice 69.7% completion rate and elite 11.3 AY/A. Hopefully, this week goes as well as that one.

I like this spot for Goff. The Lions have a one-day rest advantage, and they’re playing their third game in a row at home, where Goff passed for 280 yards and 2.4 TDs per game in the regular season and last week had 277 yards and a TD with a robust 11.0 AY/A in a #RevengeGame against the Rams and former HC Sean McVay.

For his career, Goff indoors is 35-17 ATS (29.3% ROI), and with the Lions, he’s 18-8 ATS at home (32.8% ROI, per Action Network).

The Buccaneers have a funnel defense that is No. 4 in rush EPA (-0.174) but No. 22 in dropback EPA (0.056).

Freedman’s Favorite Divisional Round RBs

Christian McCaffrey (49ers) vs. Packers

  • 49ers: -9.5 
  • O/U: 51
  • TT: 30.25 (No. 1)

McCaffrey (calf) exited Week 17 early and sat out a meaningless Week 18, but I expect him to get his usual workload out of the bye. However, if he’s unable to go, then No. 2 RB Elijah Mitchell will be an excellent injury fill-in (147 yards, two TDs in Weeks 17-18).

What needs to be said about McCaffrey? Despite missing Week 18, he finished the regular season No. 1 in fantasy scoring (22.4 FPPG), scrimmage yards (2,023), all-purpose TDs (21), and redzone opportunities (63 carries, 16 targets).

In the playoffs last year, he had 299 yards and three TDs on 40 carries and 14 targets in three games; it’s not hard to imagine him surpassing that production and usage this year.

Against lead backs with strong pass-catching skills — Bijan Robinson (172 yards), Saquon Barkley (101 yards, two TDs), Rachaad White (139 yards, one TD) — the Packers have struggled this year.

Aaron Jones (Packers) at 49ers

  • Packers: +9.5
  • O/U: 51
  • TT: 20.75 (No. 7)

Jones has been hampered by various ailments throughout the season, but since returning in Week 15 from a knee injury, he has a baller-licious 606 yards and three TDs on 97 carries and 14 targets.

He has been especially strong over the past two games (272 yards, three TDs on 49 opportunities) without No. 2 RB A.J. Dillon (thumb, neck), who could sit out yet again given that the Packers medical staff tends to be cautious with injured players and he hasn’t practiced in two weeks.

If Dillon is out, Jones — even as an underdog — will have an excellent chance to replicate his recent usage against the 49ers, who are No. 26 in defensive rush EPA (-0.041) and could be dealing with defensive box injuries to EDGE Clelin Ferrell (knee) and LB Dre Greenlaw (Achilles), both of whom missed practice on Tuesday.

James Cook (Bills) vs. Chiefs

  • Bills: -2.5
  • O/U: 45.5
  • TT: 24 (No. 4)

The Bills have a two-day rest disadvantage, Cook has disappointed with a modest and scoreless 250 yards over the past four games, and he’s yet to have a snap rate above 75% in any game this year. Still, his usage is sufficient (14.2 carries, 3.2 targets per game), and his efficiency is desirable (4.7 yards per carry, 7.8 yards per target).

He’s only had fewer than 10 opportunities in one game this season.

Cook

Jan 7, 2024; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Buffalo Bills running back James Cook (4) looks for running room against the Miami Dolphins defense during the second half at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports

And since Week 11, when the team dismissed OC Ken Dorsey and promoted QBs coach Joe Brady to play-caller, Cook has 814 yards and four TDs on 135 carries and 30 targets in eight games.

In Cook’s nine home games this year — all of them as a favorite — he has 951 yards and four TDs, and he could see a significant workload this week as a home favorite, especially since the forecast calls for wind of 16 mph.

The Chiefs are No. 27 in defensive rush EPA (-0.036), and Cook had 141 yards and a TD on 10 carries and five targets against them in Week 14.

Gus Edwards (Ravens) vs. Texans

  • Ravens: -9
  • O/U: 43.5
  • TT: 26.25 (No. 3)

The matchup isn’t good for Edwards against the Texans, who are No. 1 in defensive rush SR (33.3%).

But the circumstances are great: Edwards should be fresh after playing just 19 snaps in a meaningless Week 18 and then getting a postseason bye. The Ravens could have a run-heavy game script as big home favorites. And that might especially be the case with a forecast of 13-mph winds. 

Setting aside the season’s inconsequential final week, Edwards had 639 yards and seven TDs on 122 carries and eight targets in his nine games without competition for carries from RBs J.K. Dobbins (Achilles, IR) and Keaton Mitchell (knee, IR). That’s not elite, but it gives Edwards a good chance to get 50-plus yards and a TD, which gets the job done.

Freedman’s Favorite Divisional Round WRs

Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions) vs. Buccaneers

  • Lions: -6.5
  • O/U: 48.5
  • TT: 27.5 (No. 2)

When Brown faced the Buccaneers in Week 6, he had 12-124-1 receiving on 15 targets, and I love his matchup in the slot against undrafted rookie CB Christian Izien, who has allowed a 79.7% catch rate (per PFF).

In the regular season, St. Brown dominated with 1539 yards from scrimmage and 10 TD receiving, and then last week, he had 7-110-0 receiving on nine targets.

Matthew Berry’s 2023 Ride or Die, St. Brown is inevitable.

Deebo Samuel (49ers) vs. Packers

  • 49ers: -9.5 
  • O/U: 51
  • TT: 30.25 (No. 1)

Samuel exited Week 6 with a shoulder injury, missed Weeks 7-8, played in a diminished role in his Week 10 return, and then left Week 18 early in a meaningless game — but in his 12 full games this year, he has 1,015 yards and 11 TDs on 82 targets and 31 carries.  

That’s not quite to the level of his 2021 first-team All-Pro performance (1,770 yards, 14 TDs in 16 games), but it’s not far off either.

Lining up all over the formation, Samuel has run only 28.3% of his routes wide to the left this year, so for most of the game. He should be able to avoid No. 1 CB Jaire Alexander (ankle), who is dealing with an injury and has played almost exclusively at right corner since the Packers traded CB Rasul Douglas in Week 9.

While teammate Brandon Aiyuk figures to face Alexander most, Samuel will run the supermajority of his routes against LCB Carrington Valentine and slot CB Keisean Nixon, who respectively have subpar 59.4 and 63.6 PFF coverage grades. 

Mike Evans (Buccaneers) at Lions

  • Buccaneers: +6.5
  • O/U: 48.5
  • TT: 21 (No. 6)

Against the Lions in Week 6, Evans had just 49 yards on 10 targets, and over the past three games, he has 140 scoreless yards. Last week, he dropped what could’ve been a 47-yard touchdown. Not great. 

But that just means (maybe?) that he’s primed for positive regression — and he has the matchup for it against the Lions, who last week allowed 9-181-1 receiving on 10 targets to Puka Nacua and this year were No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (33.2).

Only three guys this year had at least 1,200 yards and 12 TDs receiving: Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb, and Evans.

With 9.2 yards per target in the regular season, Evans is still as explosive as ever.

Rashee Rice (Chiefs) at Bills

  • Chiefs: +2.5
  • O/U: 45.5
  • TT: 21.5 (No. 5)

In the aftermath of the team’s aerially deficient 21-17 loss to the Eagles in Week 11, Rice has been the No. 1 WR for the Chiefs with an 81% route rate, 27% target rate, and 28% target share (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).

With that usage, he has racked up 51-648-4 receiving on 68 targets over the past seven games, including last week’s 8-130-1 performance on 12 targets.

Rice

Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice (4) catches a deep pass as Cincinnati Bengals cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt (29) defends in the third quarter during a Week 17 NFL football game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023, at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo. The Kansas City Chiefs won, 25-17.

The Bills have major injury concerns in their secondary and could be without CBs Rasul Douglas (knee), Christian Benford (knee), and TAron Johnson (concussion) and S Taylor Rapp (calf).

It’s not a guarantee that all of those guys will be out, but some of them almost certainly will be, especially since the Bills have only six days between games.

Nico Collins (Texans) at Ravens

  • Texans: +9
  • O/U: 43.5
  • TT: 17.25 (No. 8)

This is a terrible matchup for Collins against the Ravens, who are No. 2 in defensive dropback EPA (-0.142), but Collins has several things working in his favor.

First, he had a terrible matchup last week against the Browns — No. 1 in defensive dropback EPA (-0.158) and SR (36.9%) — and Collins had 100 yards and a TD on seven targets and a carry. He can still produce when facing a top defense. Against the Ravens in Week 1, he had 6-80-0 receiving on 11 targets.

Second, the Texans might need to pass more than they usually do as underdogs.

Third, No. 1 CB Marlon Humphrey (calf) missed practice on Tuesday after sitting out Week 18 and exiting Week 17 early. I think he probably plays, but it’s concerning that he sat out practice even after getting Week 18 and the subsequent bye to recover, and if he plays, he’s unlikely to be at 100% health.

Fourth, he should dominate usage as the No. 1 WR. In the five games in which he has been fully active and WR Tank Dell (leg, IR) has been out or limited, Collins has 35-642-3 receiving on 42 targets and 2-11-0 rushing. 

With 12.0 yards per target this season, Collins is a bona fide alpha: He’s dominating the Texans’ passing attack.

Zay Flowers (Ravens) vs. Texans

  • Ravens: -9
  • O/U: 43.5
  • TT: 26.25 (No. 3)

Even with the Week 5 return of WRs Odell Beckham and Rashod Bateman, Flowers was easily the No. 1 WR on the Ravens from then to Week 17 with a 90% route rate and 22% target share.

Although the Texans last week used No. 1 CB Derek Stingley in shadow coverage for the first time all year, he still played zero snaps in the slot, where he has just two reps all year, so I doubt he’ll tail Flowers, who plays in the slot more than Odell Beckham and Rashod Bateman.

Although No. 1 TE Mark Andrews (ankle, IR) returned to limited practice on Tuesday, that doesn’t mean he’ll suit up this week, as there’s typically a ramp-up period of multiple weeks for players who have been off the active roster with an injury. In his five games without Andrews since Week 11, Flowers has a respectable 307 yards and five TDs (with a two-point conversion) on 36 targets and a carry.

Josh Reynolds (Lions) vs. Buccaneers

  • Lions: -6.5
  • O/U: 48.5
  • TT: 27.5 (No. 2)

Rotational WR Kalif Raymond (knee) exited Week 18 early with an injury and missed Super Wild Card Weekend. As a result, Reynolds has enjoyed a boost in playing time over the past two weeks with a 94% route rate, 24% target rate, and 25% target share.

In each of the past two games, Reynolds has had seven targets, which he has leveraged collectively into 10-124-0 receiving. 

With 8.8 yards per target since joining the Lions in 2021, Reynolds has the explosiveness to make big plays downfield, and it helps that he’s playing at Ford Field: In the postseason, the over is 33-18 (27.7% ROI) at indoor stadiums dating back to 2003.

Freedman’s Favorite Divisional Round TEs

Travis Kelce (Chiefs) at Bills

  • Chiefs: +2.5
  • O/U: 45.5
  • TT: 21.5 (No. 5)

This year, Kelce had his most inefficient season ever (8.1 yards per target) and his least productive season since 2016 (984 yards receiving).

Even so, Kelce is a different animal in the playoffs, and he had 7-71-0 receiving on 10 targets last week. In the postseason, Kelce has 1,619 yards and 16 TDs receiving on 175 targets in 19 games for his career and 1,325 yards and 15 TDs in 15 games since 2018, when QB Patrick Mahomes became the starter.

The Bills have injury issues and could be without TE defenders in LBs Terrel Bernard (ankle), Tyrel Dodson (shoulder), and Baylon Spector (back) and S Taylor Rapp (calf). Against the Bills in Week 14, Kelce had 6-83-0 receiving on 10 targets.

Even though the Chiefs are underdogs, I expect them to keep this game competitive, and an outright win would not be surprising: Mahomes as an underdog is 8-1-1 ATS (67.2% ROI) and 7-3 ML (71.4% ROI).

Isaiah Likely (Ravens) vs. Texans

  • Ravens: -9
  • O/U: 43.5
  • TT: 26.25 (No. 3)

If No. 1 TE Mark Andrews (ankle, IR) is out once again, Likely will be an attractive option against the Texans, who this year were No. 6 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (10.2) and are without SS Jimmie Ward (quad, IR).

In his six games without Andrews since Week 12, Likely has 21-322-5 receiving on 28 targets in six games.

Abbreviations

  • Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
  • Against the Spread (ATS)
  • Over/Under (O/U)
  • Team Total (TT)
  • Moneyline (ML)
  • Return on Investment (ROI)
  • Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
  • Expected Points Added (EPA)
  • Success Rate (SR)
  • Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
  • Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
  • AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
  • Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
  • Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
FF