Freedman's Favorites. The Best Fantasy Football Plays For Week 10

I don’t remember my 10th birthday, and one week from now, I won’t remember most of Week 10.

All I know is that most fantasy leagues have only five weeks left of the regular season.

Let’s finish strong.

Become the grindstone.

Freedman’s Favorites for Week 10

Here are my preliminary Week 10 favorites. These are the guys who (in some combination) …

• Might be high in my fantasy rankings relative to the industry consensus.
• Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
• Must be added if they are on waivers.
• Possess underappreciated upside.
• Have advantageous matchups.
• Appear in my DFS player pool.
• Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
• Are on teams with player-friendly betting odds.
• Catch my eye with their player projections.
• Stand out in our player prop tool.

Some notes.

• Updates: After I submit this piece (usually on Tuesday night), I won’t make any updates here. Rather, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my rankings and my projections, which I will periodically update throughout the week.
• Scoring & Ordering: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players are ordered roughly (but probably not precisely) within position according to my rankings as of writing.
• Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use. (I don’t want to clutter up the intro by listing them all here.)
• Sports Betting Data: Odds are as of 9:45 pm ET on Tuesday, Nov. 7, and based on the official Unabated Lines (the best representation of a market-making sportsbook consensus).
• Bye Week: The Chiefs, Rams, Dolphins, and Eagles are on bye. Ouch.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 10 QBs

Josh Allen (Bills) vs. Broncos

• Bills: -7.5 
• O/U: 47 
• TT: 27.25 

Life has not been easy on Allen this year. He leads the league with nine INTs, and the Bills are currently on the outside of the AFC playoff picture with their 5-4 record. 

And yet Allen has played heroic ball this season: He’s No. 1 in QBR (75.3, per ESPN) and No. 2 in composite EPA + CPOE (0.184, per RBs Don’t Matter). For the season, he’s the No. 1 fantasy producer (24.4 FPPG). He’s still very much “Josh Allen.”

And although the Broncos have improved defensively over the past month, they’re still No. 32 in defensive dropback EPA (0.217). Even with the bye week to prepare, the Broncos will likely be vulnerable against a motivated Allen.

Jared Goff (Lions) at Chargers

• Lions: -2.5
• O/U: 48.5
• TT: 25.5

Goff is in a strong situational spot: The Lions are coming off the bye, the Chargers are on short rest off Monday Night Football, and they had to make a long cross-country trip back home from the East Coast after Week 9.

Goff is on the road, but he’s playing at SoFi Stadium, which he knows well from his time with the Rams. He’s also playing indoors, where he is 29-14 ATS (29.9% ROI, per Action Network).

Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff talks to teammates at the line of scrimmage before a play against Las Vegas Raiders during the first half at Ford Field in Detroit on Monday, Oct. 30, 2023.

And there’s the matchup itself: The Chargers are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (20.1 FPPG).

Goff is a nonentity as a runner, but since last season, he has compensated for it as a passer with efficiency (7.8 AY/A) and volume (35.2 attempts per game). 

Brock Purdy (49ers) at Jaguars

• 49ers: -3
• O/U: 46
• TT: 24.5

While both teams are coming off a bye week, the 49ers undoubtedly needed it more than the Jaguars. Entering the bye, the 49ers had lost three consecutive games and were missing key players to injury. Now, I expect them to be focused and healthy with the projected returns of WR Deebo Samuel (shoulder) and LT Trent Williams (ankle).

For the season, Purdy is No. 1 in AY/A (9.1) and composite EPA + CPOE (0.191). I think the days of his realistic MVP candidacy are long gone — but those are MVP-caliber efficiency numbers.

Side Note: If you still believe in Purdy, you can get him at +4000 at BetMGM, and I have a +5000 ticket on him from the preseason logged in our FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker.

For his career, Purdy is 10-5 ATS (27.1% ROI) as a favorite, and the Jaguars are No. 6 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (18.7 FPPG).

Freedman’s Favorite Week 10 RBs

Tony Pollard (Cowboys) vs. Giants

• Cowboys: -16.5
• O/U: 38.5
• TT: 27.5

In eight games, Pollard has 664 yards on 120 carries and 35 targets. He’s the clear No. 1 RB on the team that ranks No. 3 in the league in scoring (27.5 PPG).

The only problem is that he last scored a TD in Week 1, and he has sabotaged his season with relative inefficiency (4.0 yards per carry, 5.4 yards per target). Fine, that’s two problems — and they’re not small — but this week, they might not matter: As a massive home favorite, Pollard could approach 20-plus touches and have multiple goal-line opportunities.

And he scored a TD last week — but then it was wiped off the board by a sheesh-inducing procedural penalty.

Against the Giants in Week 1, Pollard went off for 82 yards and two TDs on 14 carries and three targets.

Bijan Robinson (Falcons) at Cardinals

• Falcons: -1.5
• O/U: 43
• TT: 22.25

It’s impossible to overstate how disappointing Robinson’s rookie campaign has been — and yet he has 711 yards and three TDs on 102 carries and 41 targets in eight games (discounting his illness-impacted one-carry Week 7 “performance”). That’s not bad.

In all eight starts, he has had 15-plus opportunities. People can complain about the nuances of his usage all they want, but if I told you before the season that Robinson had that high of a volume floor when healthy, you might’ve drafted him No. 1 overall.

The Cardinals are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (24.5 FPPG).

Saquon Barkley (Giants) at Raiders

• Giants: +16.5
• O/U: 38.5
• TT: 11

I can’t believe I’m choosing to highlight Barkley: He’s a road dog of unthinkable proportions, and his starting QB is slated to be third-string rookie Tommy DeVito (at least as of writing, but I can imagine a veteran getting the nod). 

Even so, DeVito played the supermajority of the past two weeks, and in those games, Barkley put up 241 yards with an 82% snap rate, 79% rush share, 68% route rate, 25% target share, and 18% target rate (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). With that kind of usage, he can still produce even with DeVito starting (probably).

The Cowboys are No. 31 in defensive rush SR (44.8%).

Breece Hall (Jets) at Raiders

• Jets: -1.5
• O/U: 36.5
• TT: 19

In Weeks 1-4, Hall had 32 carries and eight targets with a 40% snap rate as he returned from last year’s season-ending knee injury.

Oct 15, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Jets running back Breece Hall (20) fights for yards as Philadelphia Eagles linebacker Zach Cunningham (52) tackles during the second half at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

But in his four games since Week 5, the Jets have given him a 62% snap rate, 62 carries, and 21 targets, which he has leveraged into 440 yards and three TDs.

And among RBs with 50-plus carries, he’s No. 1 in yards after contact per carry (2.7).

He disappointed on Monday Night Football last week (60 scoreless yards) — but his usage remained intact (16 carries, four targets), and he has a great matchup against the Raiders, who are No. 30 in defensive rush SR (44.7%).

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots) vs. Colts (in Germany)

• Patriots: +1
• O/U: 43.5
• TT: 21.25

QBs Tom Brady and Peyton Manning aren’t walking through that door — but Stevenson might run through it.

Since Week 5, Stevenson hasn’t had more than 10 carries in a game as No. 2 RB Ezekiel Elliott has seized an annoying share of the rushing workload. 

But over the past month, Stevenson has been massively involved in the receiving game (56% route rate, 18% target share, 27% target rate, 76% long down-and-distance snap rate, 100% two-minute snap rate). And he has been involved enough in the running game (38 carries).

With his overall workload, he has put up 334 yards and two TDs over the past four games — and the Colts are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (23.0 FPPG).

James Cook (Bills) vs. Broncos

• Bills: -7.5 
• O/U: 47 
• TT: 27.25 

Cook underwhelmed last week on Sunday Night Football (39 scoreless yards on six carries, four targets), but that came in a 24-18 road loss to the Bengals. I’m not expecting that kind of lackluster performance this week at home vs. the Broncos, who are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (30.4 FPPG).

In four losses this year, Cook has put up 56.3 yards per game; in five wins, 98.4 on 16.2 opportunities.

Khalil Herbert (Bears) vs. Broncos

• Bears: -4
• O/U: 39
• TT: 21.5

Herbert (ankle, IR) has been out since Week 6 and is uncertain to return in time for Thursday Night Football, but he practiced fully on Monday and Tuesday, so I tentatively expect him to play. If he’s out, D’Onta Foreman will once again be a fine fill-in.

In his five games this year, Herbert was the clear No. 1 RB for the Bears with a 59% snap rate, 43% rush share, and 46% route rate, and I imagine he will approach that usage when he returns. In Weeks 4-5, the Bears really started to lean on him, and he put up 198 yards and a TD on 28 carries and eight targets in those two games.

The matchup could not be much better: The Panthers are No. 32 in defensive rush EPA (0.090) and SR (45.7%) and without LB Shaq Thompson (leg, IR).

Freedman’s Favorite Week 10 WRs

Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions) at Chargers

• Lions: -2.5
• O/U: 48.5
• TT: 25.5

St. Brown has 100 yards or a TD in every game played this year. He’s No. 2 with 11.1 targets per game. His weekly floor is the career ceiling for most WRs.

The Chargers are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (32.3 FPPG), and St. Brown has an attractive matchup in the slot against CB Ja’Sir Taylor, a second-year sixth-rounder with a 57.6 coverage grade (per PFF).

Mike Evans (Buccaneers) vs. Titans

• Buccaneers: -1
• O/U: 38
• TT: 19.5

With 37-594-5 receiving in eight games, Evans is on pace for his 10th consecutive 1,000-yard receiving season. With 9.9 yards per target this year, he’s still as explosive as ever.

The Titans are No. 29 in defensive dropback SR (49.4%), they recently traded away All-Pro FS Kevin Byard, and they could be without CBs Sean Murphy-Bunting (thumb) and Roger McCreary (hamstring).

Adam Thielen (Panthers) at Bears

• Panthers: +4 
• O/U: 39
• TT: 17.5

Thielen disappointed last week with 5-29-0 receiving on six targets, but he at least had a 100% snap rate, and in his seven previous games this year, he amassed 70 targets, which he leveraged into 57-581-4 receiving.

With his shift to the slot, Thielen has reemerged as an attractive fantasy option in his first season with the Panthers, and he has a great matchup in the interior against CB Kyler Gordon, who has allowed an 82.3% catch rate and 9.8 yards per target since entering the league last year.

Chris Olave (Saints) at Vikings

• Saints: -2.5
• O/U: 41
• TT: 21.75

Olave has just two TDs on the year, but he’s No. 2 in the league in air yards (1,114) and No. 3 with five games of 10-plus targets. Eventually, Mount Olave will erupt.

The Vikings are No. 8 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (30.2 FPPG).

Michael Pittman (Colts) vs. Patriots (in Germany)

• Colts: -1
• O/U: 43.5
• TT: 22.25

Pittman entered the campaign with 2,007 yards and 10 TDs receiving over the previous two seasons— he was the No. 1 WR with a 99% route rate last year — and this year, he has 86 targets in nine games, which he has leveraged into 58-593-3 receiving.

Nov 5, 2023; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. (11) makes a catch during the second half against the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

He’s the No. 2 red-zone receiver in the league with 15 targets and a 44% target share.

Pittman could see extra target volume without WR Josh Downs (knee), who exited last week early with an injury, and the Patriots are without No. 1 CB Christian Gonzalez (shoulder, IR).

D.K. Metcalf (Seahawks) vs. Commanders

• Seahawks: -6
• O/U: 45.5
• TT: 25.75

Metcalf is 235 lbs. Periodically throughout the game, he’ll be matched up with rookie CB Emmanuel Forbes, who weighed 166 lbs at the combine.

Metcalf has 9.1 yards per target this year and 8.5 for his career. Forbes has allowed 12.4 yards per target in his brief career.

The Commanders just traded away EDGEs Montez Sweat and Chase Young, and they’re No. 30 in defensive dropback EPA (0.160).

This could be an onslaught.

D.J. Moore (Bears) vs. Panthers

• Bears: -4
• O/U: 39
• TT: 21.5

“How all occasions do inform against me and spur my dull revenge! … Oh, from this time forth, my thoughts be bloody or be nothing worth!”

As the saying goes, payback is a deep-dish pizza best served on a cold Chicago night.

Moore will be stuck with Tyson Bagent for at least one more week, but faces a Panthers secondary who Panthers secondary could be without CBs Jaycee Horn (hamstring, IR) and C.J. Henderson (concussion), S/CB Jeremy Chinn (quad, IR), FS Xavier Woods (thigh), and SS Vonn Bell (quad).

Despite dealing with Bagent for the past month, Moore is still No. 6 with 735 yards receiving. 

DeAndre Hopkins (Titans) at Buccaneers

• Titans: +1
• O/U: 38
• TT: 18.5

This year, Hopkins has averaged an efficient 8.8 yards per target, and in his two games with QB Will Levis, he has 8-188-3 receiving on 17 targets.

Hopkins (toe) entered last week with an injury, but he should be better this week with the extra rest off Thursday Night Football.

The Buccaneers could be without CB Jamel Dean (concussion).

Christian Kirk (Jaguars) vs. 49ers

• Jaguars: +3
• O/U: 46
• TT: 21.5

I imagine WR Zay Jones (knee) will return to action out of the Week 9 bye, but I doubt his presence on the field will have much of an impact on Kirk, who has overtaken Calvin Ridley as the team’s No. 1 WR.

After a lackluster Week 1 (nine yards, three targets), Kirk has 42-511-3 receiving on 57 targets in six games.

The 49ers are No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (32.1 FPPG), and Kirk will run most of his routes against slot CB Isaiah Oliver, who has allowed an 87.5% catch rate this year in his first season with the 49ers.

Gabe Davis (Bills) vs. Broncos

• Bills: -7.5 
• O/U: 47 
• TT: 27.25 

Last week’s zero-catch non-performance on two targets was nasty — but Davis is a boom/bust receiver. If he doesn’t boom, what does it matter how badly he busts?

In 26 of 63 career games (including playoffs), Davis has scored at least one TD — and in those games, he has averaged 16.0 fantasy points, thanks largely to receiving yardage (69.9).

Touchdowns can be tough to predict, but we know that Davis’ scores are accompanied by inflated yardage totals thanks to his big-play upside (9.1 yards per target for his career). Davis has found the endzone in 41.3% of his games, so it’s not as if we need to be all that precise with our predictions.

No. 1 CB Pat Surtain will likely shadow No. 1 WR Stefon Diggs, which means that Davis will likely face journeyman veteran CB Fabian Moreau for the supermajority of his routes. Now on his fourth team in four years, Moreau has a PFF coverage grade of 59.4.

The Broncos are No. 32 in defensive dropback SR (52.5%).

Marquise Brown (Cardinals) vs. Falcons

• Cardinals: +1.5
• O/U: 43
• TT: 20.75

Brown is easily the No. 1 WR on the team with 42-440-5 receiving and a 40% air share on 77 targets, and with the expected return of QB Kyler Murray (knee), we should see the Cardinals passing game improve: Brown is a mid-range WR2 with Murray.

And Brown might be in line for even more work with the possible absence of No. 2 WR Michael Wilson (shoulder), who neither practiced nor played last week.

Given that Brown lines up all across the formation, he’s likely to run roughly half his routes against CB Jeff Okudah, who has allowed 9.9 yards per target for his career.

Rashid Shaheed (Saints) at Vikings

• Saints: -2.5
• O/U: 41
• TT: 21.75

I highlight Shaheed a lot in this piece — but it’s because he’s often undervalued relative to his upside.

Shaheed balled out last year as an undrafted rookie with an electric 14.4 yards per target and 14.3 yards per carry, which he leveraged into 545 yards and three TDs from scrimmage. 

He’s unpolished as a receiver, but his big-play ability is undoubted: Through nine games, he has 26-501-3 receiving on 41 targets with 6-33-0 rushing and a punt return TD.

He could see exceptionally soft coverage playing alongside Nos. 1-2 WRs Chris Olave and Michael Thomas — he has scored a receiving TD in five of 21 games — and in those games, he has averaged 95 yards receiving.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 9 TEs

Sam LaPorta (Lions) at Chargers

• Lions: -2.5
• O/U: 48.5
• TT: 25.5

With 43 receptions, LaPorta is No. 3 among all-time TEs through the first eight games of their careers. He’s off to a remarkable start to his rookie season and is already the No. 2 pass catcher on the Lions, with 43-434-4 receiving on 59 targets.

Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta (87) catches a touchdown pass against the Carolina Panthers during first-half action at Ford Field in Detroit on Sunday, Oct, 8, 2023.

The Chargers are No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (11.2 FPPG).

Dalton Kincaid (Bills) vs. Broncos

• Bills: -7.5 
• O/U: 47 
• TT: 27.25 

Since returning in Week 7 from a concussion that sidelined him the prior week, Kincaid has 23-221-1 receiving on 26 targets in three games, and I expect his usage to stick given that No. 2 TE Dawson Knox (wrist, IR) is out.

The Broncos are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (12.5 FPPG).

Dalton Schultz (Texans) at Bengals

• Texans: +7
• O/U: 48
• TT: 20.5

I guess Schultz is an above-average TE? I was skeptical about a lot of his production for years with the Cowboys, and he started this season incredibly slowly (47 yards on 14 targets in Weeks 1-3) — but in five games since Week 4, he has 26-303-4 receiving on 36 targets.

Without SS Vonn Bell and FS Jessie Bates, who departed this past offseason in free agency, the Bengals are No. 3 in receptions (6.4) and receiving yards (66.4) allowed to TEs per game.

Abbreviations

• Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Over/Under (O/U)
• Team Total (TT)
• Moneyline (ML)
• Return on Investment (ROI)
• Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success Rate (SR)
• Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
• AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
• Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
• Average Depth of Target (aDOT)