Freedman's Favorites. The Best Fantasy Football Plays For Week 11

Only four weekends are left until we reach the fantasy playoffs in the supermajority of leagues.

No time for intros.

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Freedman’s Favorites for Week 11

Here are my preliminary Week 11 favorites. These are the guys who (in some combination) …

• Might be high in my fantasy rankings relative to the industry consensus.
• Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
• Must be added if they are on waivers.
• Possess underappreciated upside.
• Have advantageous matchups.
• Appear in my DFS player pool.
• Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
• Are on teams with player-friendly betting odds.
• Catch my eye with their player projections.
• Stand out in our player prop tool.

Some notes.

• Updates: After I submit this piece (usually on Tuesday night), I won’t make any updates here. Rather, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my rankings and my projections, which I will periodically update throughout the week.
• Scoring & Ordering: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players are ordered roughly (but probably not precisely) within position according to my rankings as of writing.
• Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use. (I don’t want to clutter up the intro by listing them all here.)
• Sports Betting Data: Odds are as of 5:45 pm ET on Tuesday, Nov. 14, and based on the official Unabated Lines (the best representation of a market-making sportsbook consensus).
• Bye Week: The Falcons, Colts, Patriots, and Saints are on bye. I doubt I’ll notice their absence.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 11 QBs

C.J. Stroud (Texans) vs. Cardinals

• Texans: -4
• O/U: 47.5
• TT: 25.75

Stroud looked like a rookie in his first couple of games with 11 sacks, but since then, he has taken just eight sacks in seven games and played with the poise of a veteran behind an injury-impacted offensive line.

For the season, he’s No. 1 in the league with 291.8 yards passing per game and No. 2 with an 8.9 AY/A. He has an NFL-low two INTs and a 0.6% INT rate among starters. The budding MVP hype following back-to-back 350-yard passing performances is premature — but Stroud is a deserving shoo-in for Offensive Rookie of the Year (-1600, DraftKings).

The Cardinals are No. 31 in defensive dropback SR (49.6%, per RBs Don’t Matter).

Brock Purdy (49ers) vs. Buccaneers

• 49ers: -12
• O/U: 42
• TT: 27

The 49ers bounced back in a big way last week following a much-needed bye, as they put up 34 points — and easily could’ve gotten more — in a blowout road win against the Jaguars and their (previously) respected defense.

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) runs to the locker room after the game of an NFL football game Sunday, Nov. 12, 2023 at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla. The San Francisco 49ers defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars 34-3. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union]

Getting back WR Deebo Samuel (shoulder) last week — as well as LT Trent Williams (ankle) — was big for Purdy. In his three mostly Samuel-less games this year (Weeks 6-8), Purdy completed just 62.5% of his passes and threw five INTs. He has a 72.2% completion rate and zero INTs in his six games with Samuel.

For the season, Purdy is No. 1 in AY/A (9.6), composite EPA + CPOE (0.199), and QBR (76.4, per ESPN). The days of his realistic MVP candidacy are over — but those are MVP-caliber efficiency numbers.

Side Note: If you still believe in Purdy, you can get him at +3000 at BetMGM. I have a +5000 ticket on him from the preseason logged in our FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker.

For his career, Purdy is 11-5 ATS as a favorite (31.0% ROI, per Action Network), and the Buccaneers are No. 7 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (18.7 FPPG).

Joshua Dobbs (Vikings) at Buccaneers

• Vikings: +2
• O/U: 43
• TT: 20.5

Over his past three games, Dobbs has put up 24.9, 24.9, and 25.1 fantasy points — against the elite Ravens defense in his last game with the Cardinals, against the Falcons off the bench with no knowledge of the playbook in his first game with the Vikings, and against the Saints without two starting WRs in his first start with the Vikings … as an underdog of at least a field goal in each game.

With sufficient passing ability (6.0 AY/A) and near-elite scrambling ability (62-368-5 rushing), Dobbs is a legitimate Konami Code fantasy asset.

There’s a decent chance he’ll get back WRs Justin Jefferson (hamstring, IR) and K.J. Osborn (concussion) this week, and the Broncos are in a negative situational spot with short rest off Monday Night Football and long travel returning to Denver from Buffalo.

The Broncos' defense has improved over the past month — but it’s still No. 32 in dropback EPA (0.173).

Side note: One of my biggest regrets this NFL season is dropping Dobbs in a deep head-to-head best-ball league shortly before he was traded to the Vikings. Pain.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 11 RBs

Tony Pollard (Cowboys) at Panthers

• Cowboys: -10.5 
• O/U: 42
• TT: 26.25

Pollard has 719 yards in nine games on 135 carries and 35 targets. He’s the clear No. 1 RB on the team that ranks No. 2 in the league in scoring (29.9 PPG).

The only problem is that he last scored a TD in Week 1 — even though the Cowboys put up 49 points last week — and he has sabotaged his season with relative inefficiency (3.9 yards per carry, 5.4 yards per target). 

Fine, that’s two problems, and they’re not small, but maybe — maybe? — they won’t matter this week: As a double-digit favorite, Pollard could approach 20-plus touches and have multiple goal-line opportunities.

The matchup could not be much better: The Panthers are No. 32 in defensive rush EPA (0.071) and SR (45.1%) and without LB Shaq Thompson (leg, IR).

At some point, Pollard will convert touches and yards into TDs.

Josh Jacobs (Raiders) at Dolphins

• Raiders: +12
• O/U: 46.5
• TT: 17.25

After holding out all of training camp for a better contract, Jacobs has inevitably regressed from last year’s first-team All-Pro campaign, where he led the league with 393 touches and 2,053 yards.

But it’s not as if he has been terrible this season: He has 15-plus opportunities in every game this year, and over the past two weeks — without former HC Josh McDaniels and OC Mick Lombardi — Jacobs has 225 yards and two TDs on 53 carries and two targets.

The Raiders are giving Jacobs as much work as he can handle under new HC Antonio Pierce and OC Bo Hardegree, and the Dolphins are No. 29 in defensive rush EPA (-0.010).

You can target Jacobs on Underdog Fantasy in Week 11, where you can get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you sign up below with promo code LIFE!

Raheem Mostert (Dolphins) vs. Raiders

• Dolphins: -12
• O/U: 46.5
• TT: 29.25

Even if explosive rookie RB De’Von Achane (knee, IR) returns to action this week, I’ll still like Mostert.

With 12-plus opportunities in every game this season, Mostert has an elevated floor, and with his elite efficiency (league-best 5.6 yards per carry, 6.3 yards per target) and scoring prowess (league-high 13 TDs from scrimmage), he has a vaulted ceiling.

He and the Dolphins should be rested and prepared coming out of the Week 10 bye, and he’s in a smash spot as a double-digit home favorite. In six wins this year, Mostert has averaged 22.8 fantasy points, and the Raiders are No. 8 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (21.8 FPPG).

D’Andre Swift (Eagles) at Chiefs

• Eagles: +3 
• O/U: 45.5
• TT: 21.25

Swift did almost nothing in Week 1 (three yards, two targets, one carry), but in Week 2, he dominated (181 yards, one TD on 28 carries, three targets). In eight games since the season opener, he has amassed a divine 777 yards and four TDs on 134 carries and 33 targets.

Oct 22, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles running back D'Andre Swift (0) runs with the ball against the Miami Dolphins during the fourth quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Swift should be ready for a full workload off the bye in an all-important Super Bowl rematch with the Chiefs, who have an RB-friendly funnel defense that is No. 3 in dropback EPA (-0.158) but No. 31 in rush EPA (0.008).

Brian Robinson (Commanders) at Giants

• Commanders: -10
• O/U: 37
• TT: 23.5

Robinson isn’t an exciting player, but he has scored in seven of 10 games (eight TDs) and developed something of a pass-catching skill set (20-256-3 receiving on 24 targets).

He could see 15-plus opportunities as a double-digit home favorite against the Giants, who have allowed 298 yards rushing in two games since trading away DT Leonard Williams.

Devin Singletary (Texans) vs. Cardinals

• Texans: -4
• O/U: 47.5
• TT: 25.75

No. 1 RB Dameon Pierce (ankle) has neither practiced nor played over the past two weeks, so I’m skeptical he’ll return to action vs. the Cardinals. In his stead, Singletary has dominated the backfield with a 78% snap rate, 82% rush share, and 55% route rate since Week 9 (per our Utilization Report).

With that usage, Singletary has gotten the Texans backfield going with 187 yards and one TD on 43 carries and four targets over the past two games, and he could once again see a heavy workload as a home favorite against the Cardinals, who are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (24.5 FPPG).

If he’s available, add Singletary off waivers.

Gus Edwards (Ravens) vs. Bengals

• Ravens: -4
• O/U: 46
• TT: 25

Edwards is still in a committee with RBs Justice Hill and Keaton Mitchell, and QB Lamar Jackson is always liable to steal some designed attempts. Still, Edwards has 113 carries and eight targets in nine games since No. 1 RB J.K. Dobbins (Achilles, IR) suffered a season-ending injury in Week 1.

And he’s the team’s locked-in goal-line back: Over the past month, he has scored seven TDs on 10 carries inside the 10-yard line.

It’s not hard to imagine him finding the endzone again this week as a home favorite against the Bengals, who are No. 28 in defensive rush EPA (-0.026).

Freedman’s Favorite Week 11 WRs

Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions) vs. Bears

• Lions: -10
• O/U: 46.5
• TT: 28.25

St. Brown has 100 yards or a TD in every game this year. He’s No. 2 with 10.9 targets per game. His weekly floor is the career ceiling for most WRs.

St. Brown had 14-181-0 receiving on 16 targets in two games last year against the Bears, who are No. 31 in defensive dropback EPA (0.163). He specifically has a great matchup in the slot against CB Kyler Gordon, who has allowed an 80.0% catch rate and 9.2 yards per target since entering the league last year (per PFF).

CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys) at Panthers

• Cowboys: -10.5 
• O/U: 42
• TT: 26.25

Lamb is just nine games into the season, and he already has his fourth consecutive campaign with 1,000-plus scrimmage yards.

He has been especially hot since the Week 7 bye, putting up 34-500-3 receiving on 44 targets and 2-26-1 rushing in three games.

The Panthers might be without both No. 1 CB Jaycee Horn (hamstring, IR) and slot CB/safety Jeremy Chinn (quad, IR) for one more week.

Brandon Aiyuk (49ers) vs. Buccaneers

• 49ers: -12
• O/U: 42
• TT: 27

Aiyuk came into his own last year with 1,015 yards and eight TDs receiving, and he has continued to impress this year with 35-632-3 receiving on 49 targets in his seven full games (he exited Week 2 early with a shoulder injury and missed Week 3).

For the season, he’s No. 2 in the league with a 46.3% air share.

The Buccaneers are No. 6 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (32.3 FPPG) and could be without CB Carlton Davis (toe), who missed last week.

Garrett Wilson (Jets) at Bills

• Jets: +7
• O/U: 40
• TT: 16.5

Wilson has just two TDs on the year, but he has an obscene 11.3 targets per game in QB Zach Wilson’s eight starts and 13.3 targets per game — good for 23-273-0 receiving — since the Week 7 bye. 

His utilization within the Jets offense is elite (97% route rate, 26% target rate, 32% target share, 45% air share, league-high 50% of redzone targets, and second-best 80.4% WOPR).

The Bills are playing on short rest off Monday Night Football and are vulnerable on the perimeter without No. 1 CB Tre'Davious White (Achilles, IR).

Christian Kirk (Jaguars) vs. Titans

• Jaguars: -6.5
• O/U: 40
• TT: 23.25

WR Zay Jones (knee) might return to action given that he practiced every day last week (albeit limitedly). Still, his presence on the field is unlikely to significantly impact Kirk, who has overtaken Calvin Ridley as the team’s No. 1 WR.

After a lackluster Week 1 (nine yards, three targets), Kirk has 48-615-3 receiving on 68 targets in eight games, and last week, he had 6-104-0 receiving on 11 targets out of the bye.

The Titans are No. 29 in defensive dropback SR (49.3%) and notably miss two-time first-team All-Pro FS Kevin Byard, whom the team shipped out shortly before the trade deadline.

D.J. Moore (Bears) at Lions

• Bears: +10
• O/U: 46.5
• TT: 18.25

Moore might finally get back QB Justin Fields (thumb), who has been practicing (limitedly) since Week 9.

In his five full games with Fields (Weeks 1-5), Moore had 27-531-5 receiving on 34 targets.

Nov 9, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears wide receiver D.J. Moore (2) argues an offensive pass interference call against the Carolina Panthers during the third quarter at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Bartel-USA TODAY Sports

An inside/outside receiver, Moore is capable of lining up all across the formation, and that’s the type of pass catcher — Keenan Allen (11-175-2 receiving, 14 targets), Adam Thielen (11-107-1, 13), and Tyler Lockett (8-59-2, 10) — that has given the Lions the most trouble this season.

Tank Dell (Texans) vs. Cardinals

• Texans: -4
• O/U: 47.5
• TT: 25.75

Dell was a part-time player in Week 1 (48% snap rate), and he exited Week 5 early with a concussion that sidelined him for Week 6, but in his six other games — all with a snap rate of at least 60% — he has 28-419-5 receiving on 49 targets and 8-43-0 rushing. 

And last week — without WR Nico Collins (calf), who might be out again this week — Dell hit career-high marks with a 96% snap rate, 98% route rate, 35% target rate, 36% target share, and 14 targets. There were some sheeshes — 138 unrealized air yards, an underthrown would-be 59-yard TD pass — but the performance was still encouraging.

The Cardinals are No. 29 in defensive dropback EPA (0.145).

Jordan Addison (Vikings) at Broncos

• Vikings: +2
• O/U: 43
• TT: 20.5

Since Week 5 — when No. 1 WR Justin Jefferson (hamstring, IR) exited the game early with an injury — Addison has 32-418-5 receiving on 46 targets in six games. If Jefferson isn’t activated in time for this game, Addison will be an upside WR2.

And if Jefferson returns for Week 11, Addison will still be an attractive option given his consistency: Aside from a game-scripted one-target Week 4 stinker, he has been a reliable producer with five-plus targets and either 50 yards or a TD in each game.

The Broncos are No. 32 in defensive dropback SR (51.4%).

Courtland Sutton (Broncos) vs. Vikings

• Broncos: -2
• O/U: 43
• TT: 22.5

Jerry Jeudy is the walking embodiment of “Fetch”: He’s not going to happen. While the Jeudy breakout has been anticipated, Sutton is still the No. 1 WR for the Broncos, leading the team with a 92% route rate and 24% target share.

And he specifically has an elite 47% share of redzone targets, which he has leveraged into seven TDs in nine games.

The Vikings could be without CB Akayleb Evans (calf), who exited Week 10 early with an injury.

Zay Flowers (Ravens) vs. Bengals

• Ravens: -4
• O/U: 46
• TT: 25

Despite the return of WRs Odell Beckham and Rashod Bateman in Week 5, Flowers has been the No. 1 WR on the Ravens with an 87% route rate and 22% target share over that time frame.

For the year, Flowers has a respectable 557 yards and a TD on 68 targets, 50 receptions, and six carries — and with that kind of production, he should soon find the endzone.

The Bengals are No. 29 in defensive dropback SR (49.3%).

Jayden Reed (Packers) vs. Chargers

• Packers: +3
• O/U: 44
• TT: 20.5

As a slot receiver, Reed (60% route rate) has played behind WRs Christian Watson (82%) and Romeo Doubs (80%) since the Week 6 bye, but he has been the team’s most dynamic playmaker (9.3 yards per target) this year.

The Chargers are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (32.8 FPPG), and Reed was an advantageous matchup in the slot against CB Ja’Sir Taylor, a second-year sixth-rounder with a 57.2 coverage grade.

Justin Watson (Chiefs) vs. Eagles

• Chiefs: -3
• O/U: 45.5
• TT: 24.25

Watson exited Week 6 early and missed Week 7 with an elbow injury, but he returned to action in Week 8 and trailed only TE Travis Kelce with eight targets in the two games before the Week 10 bye.

Despite his limited usage, Watson is No. 1 on the team with 549 air yards.

Since joining the Chiefs last year, Watson has been an efficient pass catcher (10.0 yards per target), and this year especially, he has been a downfield threat (21.5-yard aDOT).

With his production profile, he’s destined for a big game at some point. Why not against the Eagles, who are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (38.6 FPPG)?

Freedman’s Favorite Week 11 TEs

Travis Kelce (Chiefs) vs. Eagles

• Chiefs: -3
• O/U: 45.5
• TT: 24.25

Given the enormity of this game — a Monday Night Football Super Bowl rematch featuring both Kelce brothers — I expect Taylor Swift to be in attendance, putting Kelce on the positive side of his Swift splits (108 yards receiving per game with her in attendance, 41.2 without her this year).

Very scientific.

Last year, Kelce had 6-81-1 receiving on six targets in the Super Bowl against the Eagles, who lost SS C.J. Gardner-Johnson, FS Marcus Epps, and LBs Kyzir White and T.J. Edwards this offseason and have struggled this year against the two top-12 fantasy TEs they’ve faced: T.J. Hockenson (7-66-2 receiving, eight targets) and Jake Ferguson (7-91-1, 10). 

Also, here’s the Freedman walk-up song.

Mark Andrews (Ravens) vs. Bengals

• Ravens: -4
• O/U: 46
• TT: 25

Andrews has been the No. 1 pass catcher in the Ravens' offense since his 2019 second-season breakout (last year, he was the No. 1 TE with a 23% target share). In nine games this year, he has six TDs — a ridiculous 54.5% of the team’s aerial scores — and a career-best 72.9% catch rate while maintaining a strong 8.8 yards per target.

New offense, same Andrews.

Nov 5, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews (89) runs with the ball against the Seattle Seahawks during the third quarter at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jessica Rapfogel-USA TODAY Sports

Without SS Vonn Bell and FS Jessie Bates, who both departed this offseason in free agency, the Bengals are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (12.2 FPPG). Andrews had 5-45-1 receiving on eight targets against them in Week 2. 

Luke Musgrave (Packers) vs. Chargers

• Packers: +3
• O/U: 44
• TT: 20.5

If you’re desperate for TE help, Musgrave might be a viable streamer. He’s efficient (8.0 yards per target) and often on the field (73% route rate since the Week 6 bye).

The Chargers are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (11.7 FFPG).

Abbreviations

• Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Over/Under (O/U)
• Team Total (TT)
• Moneyline (ML)
• Return on Investment (ROI)
• Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success Rate (SR)
• Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
• AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
• Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
• Average Depth of Target (aDOT)