Freedman's Favorites. The Best Fantasy Football Plays For Week 14.

Here are my preliminary Week 14 favorites. These are the guys who (in some combination) …

• Might be high in my fantasy rankings relative to the industry consensus.
• Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
• Must be added if they are on waivers.
• Possess underappreciated upside.
• Have advantageous matchups.
• Appear in my DFS player pool.
• Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
• Are on teams with player-friendly betting odds.
• Catch my eye with their player projections.
• Stand out in our player prop tool.

Some notes.

• Updates: After I submit this piece (usually on Tuesday night), I won’t make any updates here. Rather, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my rankings and my projections, which I will periodically update throughout the week.
• Scoring & Ordering: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players are ordered within position roughly (but probably not precisely) according to my rankings as of writing.
• Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use. (I don’t want to clutter up the intro by listing them all here.)
• Sports Betting Data: Odds are as of 3 pm ET on Tuesday, Dec. 5, and based on the official Unabated Lines (the best representation of a market-making sportsbook consensus).
• Bye Week: The Cardinals and Commanders are on bye. I doubt we'll notice.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 14 QBs

Dak Prescott (Cowboys) vs. Eagles

• Cowboys: -3
• O/U: 52.5
• TT: 27.75

I highlighted Prescott as an MVP candidate in Sunday’s Betting Life Newsletter. He was slow to start the year, but in the seven games since his embarrassing three-INT performance against the 49ers in a 42-10 road loss, he has passed for 2,173 yards and 21 TDs with just two INTs and added 29-129-2 rushing. He has been a top-three fantasy QB in all but one of those games. 

The Cowboys need a victory to have a shot of winning the NFC East, and this is a situational smash spot for Prescott. In the regular season, he’s 32-22-1 ATS at home (+12.9% ROI). As a favorite, he’s 47-32-2 ATS (+14.7% ROI). In division, 27-11 ATS (+38.4% ROI). And as a divisional home favorite … 14-4 ATS (+52.5% ROI, per Action Network).

Plus, the Cowboys have three extra days to rest and prepare off Thursday Night Football. 

The Eagles are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (22.1 FFPG), and Prescott had 374 yards and three TDs passing against them in Week 9.

Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins) vs. Titans

• Dolphins: -13
• O/U: 47
• TT: 30

Tagovailoa — like 49ers QB Brock Purdy — is discounted because of his circumstances (strong surrounding talent, good offensive play-caller), but he’s No. 3 in AY/A (8.7) and composite EPA + CPOE (0.164, per RBs Don’t Matter). Regardless of how and why, he’s one of the most productive QBs in the league.

Dec 3, 2023; Landover, Maryland, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) waves to fans while leaving the field after the Dolphins' game against the Washington Commanders at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

And for what it’s worth, I’m of the opinion that Tagovailoa is actually good at football, given his pre-NFL priors: He was the No. 1 dual-threat recruit in his high school class, and he entered his final college season as the presumed No. 1 pick in the draft before suffering a serious injury.

Tagovailoa at home is 16-6 ATS (+39.0% ROI) and 18-4 ML (+35.1% ROI), and the Titans are No. 30 in defensive dropback EPA (0.159).

I have a ticket on Tagovailoa as MVP at +2200 logged in our 100% FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker. I doubt he’ll win the award, but he’s currently as low as +700 (DraftKings) and as high as +1000 (Caesars).

Russell Wilson (Broncos) at Chargers

• Broncos: +3
• O/U: 44
• TT: 20.5

This is more of a “Hey, Wilson isn’t terrible” statement than an “I love Wilson this week” declaration.

In his four games since the Week 9 bye, Wilson has been a top-12 fantasy QB three times. For the season, he’s a non-putrid No. 9 in EPA + CPOE (0.109) and No. 10 in AY/A (7.2). And he has a decent-ish fantasy floor: In 12 games, he has had 20-plus yards rushing eight times.

The Chargers are No. 1 in most passing yards allowed to QBs (290.1 yards per game) and No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (18.8).

Freedman’s Favorite Week 14 RBs

Christian McCaffrey (49ers) vs. Seahawks

• 49ers: -10.5
• O/U: 46.5
• TT: 28.5

What really needs to be said about McCaffrey? In his 26 games since joining the 49ers last year via midseason trade, he has 2,970 yards and 30 TDs on 409 carries and 141 targets. 

He has scored in every game this year but one and routinely offers positive expected value in the TD market. He has a league-high 51 redzone carries as well as 12 red zone targets.

McCaffrey could see ample usage as a home favorite, in which circumstance the 49ers with QB Brock Purdy are 8-2 ATS (52.9% ROI).

The Seahawks are No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (22.1). They could also be without LB Jordyn Brooks (ankle), and McCaffrey had 139 yards and two TDs on 19 carries and six targets against them on Thanksgiving.

Alvin Kamara (Saints) vs. Panthers

• Saints: -5 
• O/U: 37.5
• TT: 21.25

Since the Week 11 bye, Kamara has looked a lot like the 2017-20 version of himself, racking up 228 yards and two TDs on 29 carries and 13 targets in two games. The sample is small, but the usage looks deliberate and the production is encouraging.

It always feels dangerous to back the Saints when laying points — they’re a league-worst 1-8-1 ATS (-70.9% ROI) as favorites — but the matchup couldn’t be better for Kamara against the Panthers, who are No. 32 in defensive rush EPA (0.074) and without LB Shaq Thompson (leg, IR).

Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs. Buccaneers

• Falcons: -2.5 
• O/U: 39
• TT: 20.75

It’s impossible to overstate how disappointing Robinson’s rookie campaign has been — and yet he has 1,019 yards and six TDs on 158 carries and 54 targets in 11 games (discounting his illness-impacted one-carry Week 7 “performance”). That’s not bad.

He’s had 15-plus opportunities in all 11 of his starts. People can complain about the nuances of his usage all they want, but if I had told you before the season that Robinson would have that high of a volume floor when healthy, you might’ve drafted him No. 1 overall. He’s had an RB1-worthy workload over the past three weeks.

The Buccaneers are No. 28 in defensive rush SR (42.8% and could be without their top four LBs in Lavonte David (groin), Devin White (foot), K.J. Britt (back), and SirVocea Dennis (illness).

D’Andre Swift (Eagles) at Cowboys

• Eagles: +3
• O/U: 52.5
• TT: 24.75

Swift did almost nothing in Week 1 (three yards on two targets, one carry), but in the 11 games since he has 988 yards and five TDs on 166 carries and 43 targets. In each of those games, he has had 12-plus opportunities.

Nov 20, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Philadelphia Eagles running back D'Andre Swift (0) scores as Kansas City Chiefs safety Chamarri Conner (27) defends during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

He didn’t do much against the Cowboys in Week 9 but did accumulate 18 carries and two targets, and he could go off this week with similar usage: The Cowboys are No. 30 in defensive rush SR (43.7%).

Zack Moss (Colts) at Bengals

• Colts: -1
• O/U: 40.5
• TT: 20.75

No. 1 RB Jonathan Taylor (thumb) is unlikely to play, and Moss has 920 yards and five TDs on 177 carries and 18 targets in nine games with a snap rate of more than 50% since joining the Colts last year.  

The Bengals are No. 30 in defensive rush EPA (-0.038).

James Cook (Bills) at Chiefs

• Bills: +2.5
• O/U: 48
• TT: 22.75

Cook is yet to have a snap rate of even 70% in any game this year, but his usage is sufficient (12.8 carries, 3.3 targets per game), and his efficiency is desirable (4.8 yards per carry, 7.9 yards per target). He’s only had one game this season with fewer than 10 opportunities.

Despite being a road underdog, the spot for Cook isn’t as bad as it might seem: He should be fresh off the Week 13 bye, and the Bills with QB Josh Allen are 10-5-2 ATS (25.4% ROI) as road dogs in the regular season.

The Chiefs are No. 31 in defensive rush EPA (0.009).

A.J. Dillon (Packers) at Giants

• Packers: -7 
• O/U: 37
• TT: 22

Dillon has disappointed in 2023 (4.3 yards per opportunity, one TD this year after 4.8 and 14 in 2021-22), but he at least has had 46 carries and eight targets over the past three games with No. 1 RB Aaron Jones (hamstring) exiting Week 11 early and missing Weeks 12-13.

Given that Jones didn’t practice last week and has been hampered by this injury since the season opener, I doubt he’ll suit up on Monday.

The Giants are No. 29 in defensive rush EPA (-0.040).

Freedman’s Favorite Week 14 WRs

Tyreek Hill (Dolphins) vs. Titans

• Dolphins: -13
• O/U: 47
• TT: 30

Hill last year was the No. 1 WR with 3.2 yards per route, and this year, he leads the league with 1,496 scrimmage yards and 1,481 receiving yards on 127 targets through 12 games. With his elite speed and playmaking ability, he’s also the No. 1 WR in yards after catch (607)

Hill is the No. 1 fantasy WR this year (22.2), and he’s No. 1 in the Offensive Player of the Year market (-175, DraftKings).

The Titans are No. 29 in defensive dropback SR (48.5%).

CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys) vs. Eagles

• Cowboys: -3
• O/U: 52.5
• TT: 27.75

Lamb is just 12 games into the season, and he already has his second consecutive campaign with 1,250-plus scrimmage yards.

He has been especially hot in the aftermath of the team’s devastating Week 5 loss to the 49ers, putting up 63-824-6 receiving on 86 targets and 6-63-1 rushing with a two-point conversion in seven games.

The Eagles are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (39.6), and he had 11-191-0 receiving on 16 targets against them in Week 9.

Keenan Allen (Chargers) vs. Broncos

• Chargers: -3 
• O/U: 44
• TT: 23.5

Allen (quad) had just 59 scoreless yards last week as he played through an injury, but he still saw nine targets and an 89% snap rate. I expect a bounce back this week.

Entering the season, Allen had 9.8 targets per game in the three previous years, but in 2023, he has leveled up with a league-high 138 targets, which he has leveraged into 102-1,175-7 receiving in 12 games (he also has a 49-yard TD pass).

The Broncos are No. 29 in defensive dropback EPA (0.115), and Allen should be able to escape the coverage of No. 1 CB Pat Surtain, who rarely plays in the slot.

Mike Evans (Buccaneers) at Falcons

• Buccaneers: +2.5 
• O/U: 39
• TT: 18.25

With 7-162-1 receiving last week, Evans has 10 seasons in a row with 1,000 yards. In 2019, I made the case for why Evans will be in the Hall of Fame, and I stand by it now: He has been one of the consistently best WRs of his era, and with 9.8 yards per target this year, he’s still as explosive as ever.

Evans had 6-82-1 receiving on eight targets in Week 7 against the Falcons, who could be without CBs A.J. Terrell (concussion), Jeff Okudah (undisclosed), and Mike Hughes (hand).

D.J. Moore (Bears) vs. Lions

• Bears: +3.5
• O/U: 40.5
• TT: 18.5

Moore finally got back QB Justin Fields in Week 11, which makes him one of the league’s most dangerous WRs. In their seven full games together this year, Moore has 45-741-6 receiving on 56 targets.

Off the Week 13 bye, Moore and the Bears should be rested and prepared.

The Lions are No. 30 in defensive dropback SR (48.6%), and Moore had 7-96-1 receiving on nine targets against them in Fields’ Week 11 return to action. 

Michael Pittman (Colts) at Bengals

• Colts: -1
• O/U: 40.5
• TT: 20.75

Pittman entered the campaign with 2,007 yards and 10 TDs receiving over the previous two seasons, and this year, he has 127 targets in 12 games, which he has leveraged into 87-889-4 receiving.

He’s the No. 1 red-zone receiver in the league with a 45% share of targets inside the 20-yard line. 

The Bengals are No. 31 in defensive dropback SR (49.1%) and without CB Cam Taylor Britt (ankle, IR)

Deebo Samuel (49ers) vs. Seahawks

• 49ers: -10.5
• O/U: 46.5
• TT: 28.5

Samuel exited Week 6 with a shoulder injury, missed Weeks 7-8, and played a diminished role in his Week 10 return, but in his eight full games this year, he has 680 yards and six TDs on 48 targets and 24 carries.  

That’s not quite to the level of his 2021 first-team All-Pro performance (1,770 yards, 14 TDs on 121 targets, 59 carries), but it’s not far off either.

Against the Seahawks on Thanksgiving, Samuel had 7-79-0 receiving on nine targets with 4-15-1 rushing.

Brandon Aiyuk (49ers) vs. Seahawks

• 49ers: -10.5
• O/U: 46.5
• TT: 28.5

Yep, I’m putting both 49ers WRs on the list, given how good they both are, how many points the 49ers are implied to score, and how bad so many of the other games look this week.

Dec 3, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk (11) catches touchdown pass against Philadelphia Eagles safety Reed Blankenship (32) during the second quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Aiyuk came into his own last year with 1,015 yards and eight TDs receiving, and he has continued to impress this year with 47-884-6 receiving on 66 targets in his 10 full games (he exited Week 2 early with a shoulder injury and missed Week 3).

Calvin Ridley (Jaguars) at Browns

• Jaguars: +3
• O/U: 31.5
• TT: 14.25

I tentatively expect the Jaguars to be without QB Trevor Lawrence (ankle), who exited Monday Night Football with an injury, but backup C.J. Beathard was pleasantly not terrible in his stead (63 yards on 9-of-10 passing). WR Christian Kirk (groin) also left Week 13 early, and his possible Week 14 absence could help sustain Ridley’s target volume.

Ridley has been inconsistent throughout his 2023 return to action, but since the Week 9 bye, he has 18-238-3 receiving on 26 targets and 4-25-0 rushing with a two-point conversion in four games. That’s acceptable.

The Browns could again be without No. 1 CB Denzel Ward (shoulder), who has neither practiced nor played since Week 12.

Drake London (Falcons) vs. Buccaneers

• Falcons: -2.5 
• O/U: 39
• TT: 20.75

London did little last week (one reception, eight yards) against Jets CBs Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed. However, he still had five targets, and in the 10 games since his Week 1 no-show (zero receptions, one target), he has averaged a livable 7.2 targets and had a respectable 8.0 yards per target.

The Buccaneers are No. 6 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (30.9), and they could be without CB Jamel Dean (ankle, foot), who hasn’t played since exiting Week 11 early.

Courtland Sutton (Broncos) at Chargers

• Broncos: +3
• O/U: 44
• TT: 20.5

I can’t believe I’m highlighting two members of the Broncos passing game in this piece, but at least Sutton won’t need to deal with any adverse weather issues at SoFi Stadium.

Despite Jerry Jeudy entering the season as the presumed No. 1 WR, Sutton remains the primary pass-catching playmaker for the Broncos, leading the team with a 92% route rate and 24% target share (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).

Last week, he had a league-high 153 unrealized air yards.

And for those interested in the TD markets, Sutton has found the endzone in nine of 12 games this year. 

The Chargers are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (32.9).

Rashee Rice (Chiefs) vs. Bills

• Chiefs: -2.5
• O/U: 48
• TT: 25.25

In the aftermath of the team’s aerially deficient 21-17 loss to the Eagles in Week 11, Rice has been the No. 1 WR for the Chiefs with a nice 69% route rate, 36% target rate, and 31% target share, which he has turned into 16-171-1 receiving on 19 targets over the past two games.

The Bills are without CBs Tre'Davious White (Achilles, IR) and Kaiir Elam (ankle, IR).

Freedman’s Favorite Week 14 TEs

Jake Ferguson (Cowboys) vs. Eagles

• Cowboys: -3
• O/U: 52.5
• TT: 27.75

Since the Week 7 bye, Ferguson is No. 2 on the Cowboys with an 81% route rate and 37 targets, which he has turned into 25-308-4 receiving in six games. For the season, Ferguson trails only Tyreek Hill (12) with his 11 targets inside the 10-yard line.

Even with new S Kevin Byard (acquired via trade with the Titans in October), the Eagles have continued to allow TEs to put up fantasy points after losing SS C.J. Gardner-Johnson, FS Marcus Epps, and LBs Kyzir White and T.J. Edwards this offseason: Ferguson had 7-91-1 receiving on 10 targets against them in Week 9.

Isaiah Likely (Ravens) vs. Rams

• Ravens: -7
• O/U: 40
• TT: 23.5

Likely did little in Week 1 when No. 1 TE Mark Andrews was ruled out with a quad injury as a game-time decision (four yards, one target). Likewise, he did nothing in Week 11 when Andrews (ankle) exited the game early with an injury (zero yards, two targets).

Nov 5, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens tight end Isaiah Likely (80) celebrates after getting a first down against the Seattle Seahawks during the fourth quarter at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jessica Rapfogel-USA TODAY Sports

But in those situations, the game plan wasn’t made with Likely as the primary TE. In Week 12, though, Likely entered the week as a locked-in full-time player and was reasonably productive (4-40-0 receiving, six targets).

And he might have even more of a settled role in the offense coming out of the Week 13 bye.

The Rams are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (11.6) after losing SS Taylor Rapp, FS Nick Scott, and LB Bobby Wagner this offseason.

Gerald Everett (Chargers) vs. Broncos

• Chargers: -3 
• O/U: 44
• TT: 23.5

Everett exited Week 10 early with a chest injury and missed Week 11, but he has 8-87-1 receiving on nine targets in two games since returning in Week 12.

That’s not great, but it’s livable.

The Broncos are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (13.0) and without SS Kareem Jackson (suspension).

Abbreviations

• Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Over/Under (O/U)
• Team Total (TT)
• Moneyline (ML)
• Return on Investment (ROI)
• Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success Rate (SR)
• Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
• AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
• Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
• Average Depth of Target (aDOT)