Freedman's Favorites. The Best Fantasy Football Plays For Week 15.

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Freedman’s Favorites for Week 15

Here are my preliminary Week 15 favorites. These are the guys who (in some combination) …

• Might be high in my fantasy rankings relative to the industry consensus.
• Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
• Must be added if they are on waivers.
• Possess underappreciated upside.
• Have advantageous matchups.
• Appear in my DFS player pool.
• Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
• Are on teams with player-friendly betting odds.
• Catch my eye with their player projections.
• Stand out in our player prop tool.

Some notes.

Updates: After I submit this piece (on Tuesday afternoon), I won’t make any updates here. Rather, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my rankings and my projections, which I will periodically update throughout the week.

Scoring & Ordering: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players are ordered within position roughly (but probably not precisely) according to my rankings as of writing.

Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use. (I don’t want to clutter up the intro by listing them all here.)

Sports Betting Data: Odds are as of 1:30 pm ET on Tuesday, Dec. 12, and based on the official Unabated Lines (the best representation of a market-making sportsbook consensus).

Freedman’s Favorite Week 15 QBs

Lamar Jackson (Ravens) at Jaguars

• Ravens: -3.5
• O/U: 43.5
• TT: 23.5

Jackson didn’t play poorly in Weeks 1-6 (7.0 AY/A), but the offense under new OC Todd Monken sputtered. Too often, pass catchers sabotaged drives with drops, and red-zone opportunities turned into field goals instead of TDs.

Dec 10, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens tight end Isaiah Likely (80) celebrates a touchdown with quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) against the Los Angeles Rams during the first quarter at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jessica Rapfogel-USA TODAY Sports

But since Week 7, Jackson (8.7 AY/A) has approached his 2019 MVP form (8.9 AY/A). And coming out of the bye last week, he was the No. 1 QB with 32.6 fantasy points on 316 yards and three TDs passing with 11-70-0 rushing.

The Jaguars are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (20.3 FPPG), and Jackson is now No. 3 in the MVP market at +800 (FanDuel).

Brock Purdy (49ers) at Cardinals

• 49ers: -13.5
• O/U: 48
• TT: 30.75

Since the Week 9 bye, the 49ers are 5-0 with 162 points scored, and Purdy has been on fire.

For the season, Purdy is No. 1 in AY/A (10.4), composite EPA + CPOE (0.215, per RBs Don’t Matter), and QBR (74.7, per ESPN). At +225 (Unibet), Purdy and Dak Prescott (+200, PointsBet) are deservedly the current frontrunners in the MVP race.

The Cardinals are No. 32 in defensive dropback SR (51.2%), and Purdy is 5-2 ATS in divisional games (35.7% ROI, per Action Network).

Geno Smith (Seahawks) vs. Eagles

• Seahawks: +4
• O/U: 48
• TT: 22

Smith hasn’t lived up to his 2022 Comeback Player of the Year performance, but in Week 13, he was the No. 1 QB with 31.0 fantasy points on 334-3-1 passing and 2-6-1 rushing. He still has upside.

Smith (groin) missed Week 14 and is uncertain to play this week, but if he’s out, then backup Drew Lock will be a viable desperado option: In a spot start last week against the 49ers, he had 269-2-2 passing with a 71.0% completion rate and 7.1 AY/A.

The Eagles are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (21.8), and the Seahawks are 19-10 ATS (28.5% ROI) and 16-13 ML (50.0% ROI) as home underdogs under head coach Pete Carroll.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 15 RBs

Christian McCaffrey (49ers) at Cardinals

• 49ers: -13.5
• O/U: 48
• TT: 30.75

What really needs to be said about McCaffrey? In his 27 games since joining the 49ers last year via midseason trade, he has 3,123 yards and 30 TDs on 425 carries and 142 targets. 

He has scored in all but two games this year and routinely offers positive expected value in the TD market. He has a league-high 52 redzone carries as well as 12 redzone targets.

The Cardinals are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (25.3), and McCaffrey had 177 yards and four TDs on 20 carries and eight targets against them in Week 4.

Bijan Robinson (Falcons) at Panthers

• Falcons: -3
• O/U: 35
• TT: 19

It’s impossible to overstate how disappointing Robinson’s rookie campaign has been — and yet he has 1,107 yards and seven TDs on 168 carries and 61 targets in 12 games (discounting his illness-impacted one-carry Week 7 “performance”). That’s not bad.

He’s had 15-plus opportunities in all 11 starts. People can complain about the nuances of his usage all they want, but if I had told you before the season that Robinson would have that high of a volume floor when healthy, you might’ve drafted him No. 1 overall.

He missed out on a should-have-been TD last week, but against the Panthers, there should be ample opportunity to produce: They’re No. 32 in defensive rush EPA (0.069) and SR (43.6%) and without LB Shaq Thompson (leg, IR).

Alvin Kamara (Saints) vs. Giants

• Saints: -6
• O/U: 38
• TT: 22

Kamara disappointed last week — especially in the passing game (-11 receiving yards) — but since the Week 11 bye, he has still looked a lot like the 2017-20 version of himself with 273 yards and three TDs on 41 carries and 18 targets in three games. The sample is small, but the usage looks deliberate, and the production is encouraging.

Dec 10, 2023; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) runs against Carolina Panthers defensive end Henry Anderson (94) during the first half at the Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

It always feels dangerous to back the Saints when laying points — as favorites, they’re a league-worst 2-8-1 ATS (-56.2% ROI) — but Kamara could have a heavy workload as a home favorite, and the matchup is positive: The Giants are No. 29 in defensive rush EPA (-0.041) and on short rest off Monday Night Football.

James Cook (Bills) vs. Cowboys

• Bills: -2.5
• O/U: 50.5
• TT: 26.5

Cook is yet to have a snap rate of even 70% in any game this year (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). Still, his usage is sufficient (12.5 carries, 3.4 targets per game), and his efficiency is desirable (4.8 yards per carry, 8.9 yards per target). Overall, he’s had fewer than 10 opportunities in just one game this season.

And since the team dismissed OC Ken Dorsey and promoted QBs coach Joe Brady to play-caller, Cook has 343 yards and two TDs on 43 carries and 16 targets in three games.

The Cowboys are No. 31 in defensive rush SR (43.5%).

Ezekiel Elliott (Patriots) vs. Chiefs

• Patriots: +9.5
• O/U: 37.5
• TT: 14

I can’t believe I’m writing up Elliott, but it’s Week 15 in one of the weirdest NFL seasons I can remember: This is where we are.

No. 1 RB Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle) exited Week 13 with an injury after playing just 17 snaps, and then he missed Week 14. I’m skeptical that he’ll return to action this Sunday, given that he didn’t practice at all last week.

Uncoincidentally, Elliott has had back-to-back season-high snap rates (69%, 91%) over his past two games, which he has leveraged into 232 yards and a TD on 39 carries and 13 targets.

The Chiefs are No. 31 in defensive rush EPA (0.018).

David Montgomery (Lions) vs. Broncos

• Lions: -5
• O/U: 46.5
• TT: 25.75

Aside from Week 6, which he exited early after just 18 snaps, Montgomery has scored a TD in every game but one and amassed 843 yards on 155 carries and 17 targets across his other nine contests.

Despite splitting work with rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Montgomery has had 12-plus opportunities in every game outside of Week 6.

He could see robust usage as a home favorite, and the Broncos are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (25.8).

A.J. Dillon (Packers) vs. Buccaneers

• Packers: -3.5
• O/U: 41.5
• TT: 22.5

Dillon has disappointed in 2023 (4.3 yards per opportunity, one TD this year after 4.8 and 14 in 2021-22), but he at least has had 61 carries and 11 targets over the past four games with No. 1 RB Aaron Jones (hamstring) exiting Week 11 early and missing Weeks 12-14.

Given that Jones has been hampered by this lingering injury since the season opener, I’m tentatively expecting him not to suit up this week, which could mean a heavy workload for Dillon as a home favorite.

The Buccaneers are No. 28 in defensive rush SR (43.0%) and could be without DT Vita Vea (toe) and LB Devin White (foot), both of whom missed last week. 

Freedman’s Favorite Week 15 WRs

CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys) at Bills

• Cowboys: +2.5
• O/U: 50.5
• TT: 24

With a month left to play, Lamb already has his second consecutive campaign with 1,300-plus scrimmage yards.

He has been especially hot in the aftermath of the team’s devastating Week 5 loss to the 49ers, putting up 69-895-7 receiving on 96 targets and 6-63-1 rushing with a two-point conversion in eight games.

Lamb is also the No. 1 redzone receiver in the league, with 23 targets inside the 20-yard line.

The Bills are without No. 1 CB Tre'Davious White (Achilles, IR) and could be without FS Micah Hyde (neck).

A.J. Brown (Eagles) at Seahawks

• Eagles: -4
• O/U: 48
• TT: 26

Brown made his displeasure known following his four-target, one-reception performance in Week 11. Since then, he has 22-245-1 receiving on 35 targets in three games.

He’s No. 2 in the league with an 80.7% WOPR, and since joining the Eagles last year, he’s averaged an electric 10.0 yards per target.

The Seahawks are No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (31.2) and could be without starting CBs Devon Witherspoon (ribs) and Tre Brown (heel).

Michael Pittman (Colts) vs. Steelers

• Colts: -3
• O/U: 42
• TT: 22.5

Pittman entered the campaign with 2,007 yards and 10 TDs receiving over the previous two seasons, and this year, he has 128 targets in 13 games, which he has leveraged into 95-984-4 receiving.

The Steelers might be without EDGEs T.J. Watt (concussion) and Alex Highsmith (concussion), and their absence could render the secondary vulnerable.

Deebo Samuel (49ers) at Cardinals

• 49ers: -13.5
• O/U: 48
• TT: 30.75

Samuel exited Week 6 with a shoulder injury, missed Weeks 7-8, and played a diminished role in his Week 10 return, but in his nine full games this year, he has 830 yards and eight TDs on 57 targets and 25 carries.  

That’s not quite to the level of his 2021 first-team All-Pro performance (1,770 yards, 14 TDs on 121 targets, 59 carries), but it’s not far off either.

Samuel saw zero targets against the Cardinals in Week 4; I expect the 49ers will make it a priority to get him the ball this week. The Cardinals are No. 31 in defensive dropback EPA (0.162).

D.K. Metcalf (Seahawks) vs. Eagles

• Seahawks: +4
• O/U: 48
• TT: 22

Metcalf is a boom/bust player, but in eight games since the Week 5 bye, he has 33-596-5 receiving on 70 targets. And he has 16-312-5 receiving on 31 targets in four games over the past month — all of which have been losses.

The Eagles are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (39.3).

This feels like a boom week.

Puka Nacua (Rams) vs. Commanders

• Rams: -6.5
• O/U: 49
• TT: 27.75

Nacua has yet to have fewer than seven targets in any game this year, and with 1,113 yards receiving, he has a shot to break Ja’Marr Chase’s rookie record (1,455).

Dec 3, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua (17) carries the ball against the Cleveland Browns cornerback Greg Newsome II (0) in the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Since the Week 10 bye, when QB Matthew Stafford returned from injury, Nacua has 333 yards and two TDs on 30 targets and four carries in four games.

With No. 1 WR Cooper Kupp finally looking healthy (14-154-2 receiving on 18 targets over the past two weeks), Nacua has a diminished ceiling, but he also has an inherently elevated floor and might benefit from not being the focal point of the pass defense.

The Commanders are No. 32 in defensive dropback EPA (0.211).

D.J. Moore (Bears) at Browns

• Bears: +3
• O/U: 37.5
• TT: 17.25

Since QB Justin Fields returned to action in Week 11, he has 24-278-2 receiving on 32 targets and 3-20-1 rushing in three games. In total, Moore has 829 yards and eight TDs from scrimmage in his eight full games with Fields.

The Browns present a tough matchup on paper, but No. 1 CB Denzel Ward (shoulder) is no guarantee to suit up after missing the past three games. And even if he returns, he could be rusty after the lengthy layoff.

Davante Adams (Raiders) vs. Chargers

• Raiders: -3
• O/U: 34
• TT: 18.5

The Raiders are fresh off a humiliating shutout home loss, and points have been at a premium recently. As I noted in the Monday Betting Life Newsletter, the Raiders are 4-1 (53.3% ROI) to the under with interim HC Antonio Pierce.

But I’m cautiously optimistic about Adams this week.

He has just one TD in QB Aidan O’Connell’s six starts, but he has a respectable 403 yards receiving and dominant 63 targets in that span with no fewer than seven targets in any game. With that kind of volume, Adams has the upside for a classic performance.

The Chargers are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (31.9), and Adams had 8-75-0 receiving on 13 targets with O’Connell under-center in his first matchup vs. the Chargers this season.

Rashee Rice (Chiefs) at Patriots

• Chiefs: -9.5
• O/U: 37.5
• TT: 23.5

In the aftermath of the team’s aerially deficient 21-17 loss to the Eagles in Week 11, Rice has been the No. 1 WR for the Chiefs with a 73% route rate, 32% target rate, and 29% target share, which he has turned into 23-243-2 receiving on 23 targets over the past three games.

Rice is finally on the verge of a full-time role.

Rice figures to line up most against slot CB Myles Bryant, who has allowed an 81.7% catch rate this year and has a 59.6 coverage grade (per PFF).

DeAndre Hopkins (Titans) vs. Texans

• Titans: -2
• O/U: 38.5
• TT: 20.25

This year, Hopkins has an efficient 8.4 yards per target, and in his seven games with QB Will Levis, he has 30-522-6 receiving on 60 targets with 2-9-0 rushing.

And over the past two games, the Titans have made an extra effort to get Hopkins the ball with 24 targets, which he has turned into 12-199-2 receiving.

I expect the Titans to continue to funnel the ball to Hopkins this week, given that he’s facing the Texans: “How all occasions do inform against me and spur my dull revenge! … Oh, from this time forth, my thoughts be bloody or be nothing worth!”

Zay Flowers (Ravens) at Jaguars

• Ravens: -3.5
• O/U: 43.5
• TT: 23.5

Even with the Week 5 return of WRs Odell Beckham and Rashod Bateman, Flowers has still been the No. 1 WR on the Ravens with a 92% route rate and 23% target share.

And in his two games following the season-ending injury to TE Mark Andrews (ankle, IR) in Week 11, Flowers has a 100% route rate and 26% target share.

Flowers is the man in the pass offense.

The Jaguars could be without No. 1 CB Tyson Campbell (quad), who missed last week and has played in only two games since Week 7.

Jayden Reed (Packers) vs. Buccaneers

• Packers: -3.5
• O/U: 41.5
• TT: 22.5

Reed is primarily a slot receiver, but last week, he played a season-high 22 snaps out wide because of injuries to WRs Christian Watson (hamstring) and Dontayvion Wicks (ankle), and he perhaps unsurprisingly had a career-high 36% target rate and 27% target share.

I’m skeptical that Watson and Wicks will return this week, so Reed could continue to see more varied usage across the formation and serve as the team’s No. 1 WR.

Even as a rookie, Reed leads the Packers with 540 yards receiving, adding 11-119-2 rushing. He gives off lowkey 2012 Randall Cobb vibes.

Following the Week 6 bye, Reed has 451 yards and five TDs on 47 targets and 10 carries in eight games.

The Buccaneers are No. 28 in defensive dropback EPA (0.079), and they could be without perimeter CBs Jamel Dean (ankle, foot) and Carlton Davis (groin). Additionally, Reed has a great matchup in the slot against undrafted rookie CB Christian Izien, who has allowed an 80.9% catch rate.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 15 TEs

T.J. Hockenson (Vikings) at Bengals

• Vikings: +3.5
• O/U: 39
• TT: 17.75

An injury forced No. 1 WR Justin Jefferson (chest) from Week 14 after he missed Weeks 6-13 with a hamstring issue. Jefferson has a chance to return this week, but he’s not certain to do so, especially with one less day of rest, as the Vikings play on Saturday.

Nov 19, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Minnesota Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson (87) reacts after making a catch against the Denver Broncos in the first half at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Since Week 6, Hockenson has 55-585-3 receiving on 77 targets in eight games.

Without SS Vonn Bell and FS Jessie Bates, both of whom departed this past offseason in free agency, the Bengals are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (13.2).

Cole Kmet (Bears) at Browns

• Bears: +3
• O/U: 37.5
• TT: 17.25

I feel dirty mentioning Kmet, but he’s No. 2 on the team with 61-548-5 receiving and 75 targets.

The Browns could be without SS Grant Delpit (groin) and FS Juan Thornhill (calf), and they’ll definitely be without No. 3 S Rodney McLeod (biceps, IR).

Logan Thomas (Commanders) at Rams

• Commanders: +6.5
• O/U: 49
• TT: 21.25

Thomas had just 2-15-0 receiving (with a two-point conversion) on five targets in the two games right before the Week 14 bye.

But in the previous eight games -- after returning from a concussion that sidelined him for Week 3 -- Thomas had 37-344-2 receiving on 47 targets with a 77% route rate. Fresh off the bye, Thomas has a chance to resume his prior workload.

The Rams are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (12.0) after losing SS Taylor Rapp, FS Nick Scott, and LB Bobby Wagner this offseason.

Abbreviations

• Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Over/Under (O/U)
• Team Total (TT)
• Moneyline (ML)
• Return on Investment (ROI)
• Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success Rate (SR)
• Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
• AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
• Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
• Average Depth of Target (aDOT)