Freedman's Favorites. The Best Fantasy Football Plays For Week 17.

Week 17. Unless you’re one of those hardcore sicko degenerates with a championship game in the final week of the NFL regular season, this is the end of the road.

Win or lose, here will be the final battle.

I wish you good fortune in the wars to come.

If you became the grindstone on your journey, your sword should be sharp.

Freedman’s Favorites for Week 17

Here are my preliminary Week 17 favorites. These are the guys who (in some combination) …

• Might be high in my fantasy rankings relative to the industry consensus.
• Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
• Must be added if they are on waivers.
• Possess underappreciated upside.
• Have advantageous matchups.
• Appear in my DFS player pool.
• Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
• Are on teams with player-friendly betting odds.
• Catch my eye with their player projections.
• Stand out in our player prop tool.

Some notes.

Updates: After I submit this piece (on Tuesday afternoon), I won’t make any updates here. Rather, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my rankings and my projections, which I will periodically update throughout the week.

Scoring & Ordering: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players are ordered within position roughly (but probably not precisely) according to my rankings as of writing.

Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use. (I don’t want to clutter up the intro by listing them all here.)

Sports Betting Data: Odds are as of 9:30 pm ET on Tuesday, Dec. 26, and based on the official Unabated Lines (the best representation of a market-making sportsbook consensus).

Freedman’s Favorite Week 17 QBs

Dak Prescott (Cowboys) vs. Lions

• Cowboys: -6
• O/U: 53.5
• TT: 29.75

The Cowboys have lost two games in a row, but they were in a tough spot as road underdogs, and I expect a bounceback this week, primarily because of their matchup against the Lions, who are No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (19.3 FPPG)

Plus, they’re at home as favorites — so Prescott is in a situational smash spot. In the regular season, at home, he’s 33-23-1 ATS (14.4% ROI). And as a favorite, he’s 48-32-2 ATS (15.7% ROI, per Action Network).

Prescott wasn’t great over the past two weeks (5.8 AY/A), but in the 10 games since his embarrassing three-INT performance against the 49ers in a 42-10 road loss in Week 5, he has passed for 2,831 yards and 25 TDs with just three INTs and added 41-192-2 rushing. 

Brock Purdy (49ers) at Commanders

• 49ers: -14
• O/U: 49
• TT: 31.5

Oh my.

Well … last week didn’t go as planned for the 49ers and Purdy (neck stinger), who threw four INTs and suffered an “injury,” although I suspect his pride was hurt more than his body. He likely could’ve returned to action against the Ravens if the 49ers had needed (or wanted) him to do so.

Dec 25, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) runs the ball against the Baltimore Ravens in the fourth quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

I expect him to play this week. If he doesn’t, backup Sam Darnold will be an intriguing option against the Commanders, who are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (20.6).

As for Purdy, even with his disastrous performance on Christmas, he is still No. 1 in AY/A (9.9), composite EPA + CPOE (0.199, per RBs Don’t Matter), and QBR (71.7, per ESPN). He should be much better this week against one of the league’s worst defenses.

Matthew Stafford (Rams) at Giants

• Rams: -5.5 
• O/U: 42.5
• TT: 24

After the return of No. 1 RB Kyren Williams in Week 12 revitalized the Rams running game, Stafford has 1,388 yards and 14 TDs passing to just one INT in five games, all of which have seen the Rams score 28-plus points and Stafford finish as a top-12 QB in fantasy.

The Giants are No. 28 in defensive dropback SR (48.1%).

Freedman’s Favorite Week 17 RBs

Christian McCaffrey (49ers) at Commanders

• 49ers: -14
• O/U: 49
• TT: 31.5

Bold, I know, to include McCaffrey among my favorites. This is basically my way of saying that it will be hard for you not to win a championship this week if you have McCaffrey.

He’s No. 1 with 1,932 yards, 21 TDs, and 321 touches.

He’s the No. 1 RB in fantasy scoring (23.1).

He’s No. 1 with 57 redzone carries, and he also has 14 redzone targets.

He’s him.

For prop betting, he’s consistently undervalued in the TD market, and he’s now No. 2 in the MVP market (+400, DraftKings).

I have an 80-1 MVP ticket on McCaffrey placed after Week 2 logged in our 100% FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker.

The Commanders are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (23.1).

Kyren Williams (Rams) at Giants

• Rams: -5.5 
• O/U: 42.5
• TT: 24

Williams is small (5-9, 194 lbs), but that hasn’t kept HC Sean McVay from giving him a full workload. In every game this year, Williams has 15-plus opportunities, and since returning in Week 12 from an ankle injury, he hasn’t had fewer than 22.

Over his past five games, Williams has 688 yards and five TDs with a two-point conversion on 111 carries, 22 targets, and an 80% snap rate, 73% carry rate, and 65% route rate (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).

Williams is basically mini-McCaffrey, and the Giants might be without DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches (knee), who missed last week.

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Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) at Cowboys

• Lions: +6
• O/U: 53.5
• TT: 23.75

Despite splitting work with RB David Montgomery ever since the veteran returned in Week 10 from a rib injury, the rookie Gibbs has 624 yards and eight TDs on 78 carries and 34 targets in seven games.

He’s now the leader in the backfield, especially in the passing game (58% route rate, 21% target rate since Week 10), and he could see regular work on all three downs given that the Lions are road underdogs — but at least they’re in a dome, so the offense with QB Jared Goff shouldn’t bog down.

And the Lions might succeed on the ground against the Cowboys, who are No. 32 in defensive rush SR (45.1%) and could be without run-stuffing DT Johnathan Hankins (knee, ankle) for yet another game.

Travis Etienne (Jaguars) vs. Panthers

• Jaguars: -7.5
• O/U: 38
• TT: 22.75

Etienne’s decline in usage is concerning. In the first eight weeks of the season, he had an 81% snap rate, 72% rush rate, and 64% route rate, but since the Week 9 bye, those numbers have dropped to 67%, 64%, and 52%.

Unsurprisingly, his production has dipped since the bye: 430 yards and two TDs in seven games. And last week, he had just six carries and three targets in a 30-12 loss.

Dec 4, 2023; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars running back Travis Etienne Jr. (1) runs for a touchdown against the Cincinnati Bengals in the first quarter at EverBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Reper-USA TODAY Sports

Still, as heavy home favorites, the Jaguars could rely extensively on Etienne this week with QB Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) dealing with an injury.

The Panthers are No. 32 in defensive rush EPA (0.026) and without LB Shaq Thompson (leg, IR).

Joe Mixon (Bengals) at Chiefs

• Bengals: +7
• O/U: 44.5
• TT: 18.75

Despite sharing work with new No. 2 RB Chase Brown since Week 12, Mixon has 353 yards and four TDs with a two-point conversion on 61 carries and 18 targets over the past four games.

Mixon is still doing just fine.

He’s in a negative situation as a road underdog, but the matchup isn’t nearly as daunting as it once seemed: The Chiefs are No. 31 in defensive rush EPA (0.017).

D’Andre Swift (Eagles) vs. Cardinals

• Eagles: -10.5
• O/U: 48
• TT: 29.25

The extent to which Swift is not used around the goal line is almost humorous, but since taking control of the Eagles' backfield in Week 2, he has 1,194 yards and six TDs on 215 carries and 46 targets in 13 games. In each of those games, he has had 12-plus opportunities.

He could have a large workload as a home favorite against the Cardinals, who are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (26.6).

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Chiefs) vs. Bengals

• Chiefs: -7
• O/U: 44.5
• TT: 25.75

I feel gross even writing about Edwards-Helaire, but No. 1 RB Isiah Pacheco (concussion) exited last week early with a head injury, and No. 2 RB Jerick McKinnon (groin, IR) is out. Hence, Edwards-Helaire.

When Pacheco was sidelined with a shoulder injury in Weeks 14-15, Edwards-Helaire put up 169 yards and a TD on 24 carries and eight targets with 15-plus opportunities in each game. That’ll do.

The Bengals are No. 29 in defensive rush SR (42.7%) and without impact DT D.J. Reader (quad, IR).

Pick up Edwards-Helaire if he’s available on waivers.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 17 WRs

Justin Jefferson (Vikings) vs. Packers

• Vikings: -2 
• O/U: 47
• TT: 24.5

Since returning in Week 15 from hamstring and chest injuries, Jefferson has 13-225-1 receiving on 20 targets — despite having a league-high 108 unrealized air yards last week.

In his six full games this year, Jefferson has 46-768-4 receiving on 67 targets.

He could enjoy even more target volume and production this week with No. 2 WR Jordan Addison (ankle) and TE T.J. Hockenson (knee) dealing with injuries.

The Packers are No. 30 in defensive dropback SR (48.5%), and in Jefferson’s four games against them since 2021, he has 429 yards and four TDs on 37 targets and one carry.

A.J. Brown (Eagles) vs. Cardinals

• Eagles: -10.5
• O/U: 48
• TT: 29.25

Ever since Brown made his displeasure known following his four-target, one-reception performance in Week 11, he has seen 56 targets in five games.

His production hasn’t been elite with that usage (33-381-1 receiving), but as long as his volume holds, the gaudy stat lines will eventually appear.

He’s No. 1 in the league with an 80.7% WOPR, and since joining the Eagles last year, he’s averaged a robust 9.7 yards per target.

The Cardinals are No. 32 in defensive dropback EPA (0.178) and SR (50.9%).

Mike Evans (Buccaneers) vs. Saints

• Buccaneers: -3
• O/U: 42.5
• TT: 22.75

Only two players this year have 1,000-plus yards and double-digit TDs receiving: Tyreek Hill — and Evans (1,163, 13).

In 2019, I made the case for why Evans will be in the Hall of Fame, and I stand by it now: With 10 straight seasons of 1,000 yards receiving to open his career, Evans has been one of the consistently best WRs of his era, and with 9.5 yards per target this year he’s still as explosive as ever.

The Saints are without No. 1 CB Marshon Lattimore (ankle, IR) — Evans’ career nemesis — as well as FS Marcus Maye (shoulder, IR).

Deebo Samuel (49ers) at Commanders

• 49ers: -14
• O/U: 49
• TT: 31.5

Samuel exited Week 6 with a shoulder injury, missed Weeks 7-8, and played a diminished role in his Week 10 return, but in his 11 full games this year, he has 943 yards and 10 TDs on 76 targets and 28 carries.  

That’s not quite to the level of his 2021 first-team All-Pro performance (1,770 yards, 14 TDs on 121 targets, 59 carries), but it’s not far off either.

The Commanders are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (35.5).

Brandon Aiyuk (49ers) at Commanders

• 49ers: -14
• O/U: 49
• TT: 31.5

I’m putting both 49ers WRs on the list, given how good they both are, how many points the 49ers are implied to score, and how great the matchup is against the Commanders, who are No. 31 in defensive dropback EPA (0.166).

Aiyuk came into his own last year with 1,015 yards and eight TDs receiving, and he has continued to impress this year with 62-1,160-6 receiving on 87 targets in his 13 full games (he exited Week 2 early with a shoulder injury and missed Week 3).

Stefon Diggs (Bills) vs. Patriots

• Bills: -12
• O/U: 41
• TT: 26.5

Since the team dismissed OC Ken Dorsey and promoted QBs coach Joe Brady to play-caller in Week 11, Diggs has just 23-202-1 receiving on 43 targets in five games.

In Weeks 1-10, he had 73-868-7 receiving on 102 targets (with a two-point conversion) in 10 games.

The move to Brady has benefited the team, but not Diggs.

Dec 23, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Buffalo Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs (14) carries the ball against the Los Angeles Chargers in the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Still, he has a 30% target share since Week 10: Diggs still has elite underlying usage.

And this is a “keep the faith” matchup: The Patriots lack a cover man with the ability to defend him, and in his eight games against them since joining the Bills in 2020, Diggs has 49-687-7 receiving on 75 targets (including playoffs).

Puka Nacua (Rams) vs. Giants

• Rams: -5.5 
• O/U: 42.5
• TT: 24

Nacua has yet to have fewer than seven targets in any game this year, and with 1,327 yards receiving, he has a real shot at breaking Ja’Marr Chase’s rookie record (1,455).

Since the Week 10 bye, when QB Matthew Stafford returned from injury, Nacua has 566 yards and three TDs on 50 targets and eight carries in six games.

With No. 1 WR Cooper Kupp finally looking healthy (22-278-2 receiving on 30 targets over the past three weeks), Nacua has a diminished ceiling. Still, he also has an inherently elevated floor and might benefit from not being the focal point of the pass defense.

The Giants could be without CB Deonte Banks (shoulder), who exited last week early.

Rashee Rice (Chiefs) vs. Bengals

• Chiefs: -7
• O/U: 44.5
• TT: 25.75

In the aftermath of the team’s aerially deficient 21-17 loss to the Eagles in Week 11, Rice has been the No. 1 WR for the Chiefs with a 78% route rate, 29% target rate, and 28% target share, which he has turned into 38-391-3 receiving on 50 targets over the past five games.

The Bengals are No. 31 in defensive dropback SR (49.3%) and without CB Cam Taylor-Britt (quad, IR).

George Pickens (Steelers) at Seahawks

• Steelers: +3.5
• O/U: 42.5
• TT: 19.5

Pickens has been a boom/bust producer throughout his brief career, especially this season. In his 11 games without a TD, he has averaged 48.6 yards and 3.7 receptions on six targets. In his four games with a score, he’s averaged 118.5 yards and 1.3 TDs on 3.8 receptions and eight targets.

It’s impossible to predict when Pickens will go off for a big play — but in his three games without QB Kenny Pickett (ankle), who’s likely to miss this week, Pickens has functioned as the No. 1 WR with a team-high 95% route rate and 23% target share (vs. 85% and 21% for Diontae Johnson).

Pickens finally might be ahead of Johnson, and backup QB Mason Rudolph displayed the willingness last week to allow Pickens to make plays downfield.

In the regular season, the Steelers are 56-31-3 ATS (24.8% ROI) and 47-43 ML (32.7% ROI) as underdogs under HC Mike Tomlin, and the Seahawks could be without CB Devon Witherspoon (ribs) and SS Jamal Adams (knee).

Rashid Shaheed (Saints) at Buccaneers

• Saints: +3
• O/U: 42.5
• TT: 19.75

Shaheed is almost always undervalued relative to his upside. For his career, he has 11.1 yards per target and 8.5 yards per carry. He’s a consistent threat to break a big play.

This year, Shaheed has scored in four of 13 games (not counting his 76-yard punt return TD). In these games, he has averaged 99.3 yards receiving on six targets (vs. 27 yards on five targets in his scoreless contests). When Shaheed finds the endzone, he also discovers a whole lot of yardage.

He could hit paydirt this week against the Buccaneers, who are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (31.5). On the perimeter, they could be without CB Carlton Davis (concussion), and in the slot, Shaheed will have an advantageous matchup with undrafted rookie CB Christian Izien, who has allowed a 78.6% catch rate (per PFF).

Greg Dortch (Cardinals) at Eagles

• Cardinals: +10.5
• O/U: 48
• TT: 18.75

WR Michael Wilson missed Weeks 11-14 with a shoulder injury, and then WR Marquise Brown (heel) exited Week 15 early and missed Week 16, so Dortch has had a snap rate of at least 65% and a route rate of at least 70% in each of the past five games.

With that playing time, he has led the Cardinals WRs with a 16% target share, which he has leveraged into a position-high 14-182-2 receiving (to go along with a five-yard carry, five kick returns, and six punt returns). 

That’s not exciting — but with a good matchup that might turn into something useful, and Dortch has a good matchup: The Eagles are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (37.2).

Brandon Johnson (Broncos) vs. Chargers

• Broncos: -5.5
• O/U: 38.5
• TT: 22

Last week, with No. 1 WR Courtland Sutton (concussion) exiting early, Johnson stepped up to fill his spot on the field with a season-high 68% snap rate and 72% route rate, which he leveraged into 3-47-1 receiving on a team-high five targets.

If Sutton is out this week, Johnson will likely resume his Week 16 role, making him a desperado option in deep leagues and DFS against the Chargers, who are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (33.3).

Freedman’s Favorite Week 17 TEs

Travis Kelce (Chiefs) vs. Bengals

• Chiefs: -7
• O/U: 44.5
• TT: 25.75

Kelce has had a relatively down year by his standards: He’s had just two 100-yard receiving performances (vs. six last year), and he hasn’t scored a TD since before Thanksgiving.

Dec 25, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) celebrates during the first half against the Las Vegas Raiders at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

But this is a bounce-back spot against the Bengals, who are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (12.3) following the offseason departure of SS Vonn Bell and FS Jessie Bates.

In his four games against the Bengals under DC Lou Anarumo — all of which have been over the past 24 months — Kelce has 265 yards and four TDs on 32 targets and three carries. 

Evan Engram (Jaguars) vs. Panthers

• Jaguars: -7.5
• O/U: 38
• TT: 22.75

After scoring zero TDs in Weeks 1-12, Engram has hit paydirt thrice and added 300 yards and 34 receptions on 42 targets in four games since Week 13, when WR Christian Kirk (groin, IR) suffered a season-ending injury.

Over the past two weeks, the Panthers have allowed 167 yards on 13 targets to Falcons and Packers TEs.

Chigoziem Okonkwo (Titans) at Texans

• Titans: +3.5
• O/U: 42.5
• TT: 19.5

Last week, Okonkwo had a deliciously desirable 80% route rate, which he leveraged into a season-high 25% target share, 100% end-zone target share, 42% air share, and 6-63-1 receiving.

Okonkwo finally seems to be establishing himself within the Titans' offense.

The Texans are No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (10.7) and will be without SS Jimmie Ward (quad, IR) and maybe LB Blake Cashman (hamstring), who has missed the past two games.

Abbreviations

• Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Over/Under (O/U)
• Team Total (TT)
• Moneyline (ML)
• Return on Investment (ROI)
• Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success Rate (SR)
• Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
• AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
• Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
• Average Depth of Target (aDOT)