It’s Week 18.

Honestly, I don’t know why I’m writing this piece. And I especially don’t know why you’re reading it — unless you’re one of those hardcore sicko degenerates with a championship game in the final week of the NFL regular season.

By the way, I consider “hardcore sicko degenerate” a term of respect.

Welcome.

Might I make a suggestion?

Next year, instead of having your league championship in Week 18 — like the respected HSD that you are — have it in Week 17, and then in the final week of the season, have a one-week all-league winner-take-all GPP-style tournament in which the team with the highest score that week wins a portion of the total prize money.

Let’s say you’re in a 12-team league with a $100 buy-in. You could structure your season and prizes like this.

  • Weeks 1-17: Champion - $800 | Runner-Up - $200 | Third Place - $100
  • Week 18: High Score - $100

This way, Week 18 still counts for something — you still get to have some fantasy action every week of the regular season — but something as important as your league championship isn’t impacted by the randomness we often see in the final week.

Anyway, good luck with Week 18. Let your respected HSD freak flag fly.

Freedman’s Favorites for Week 18

Here are my preliminary Week 18 favorites. These are the guys who (in some combination) …

  • Might be high in my fantasy rankings relative to the industry consensus.
  • Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
  • Must be added if they are on waivers.
  • Possess underappreciated upside.
  • Have advantageous matchups.
  • Appear in my DFS player pool.
  • Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
  • Are on teams with player-friendly betting odds.
  • Catch my eye with their player projections.
  • Stand out in our player prop tool.

Some notes.

  • Updates: After I submit this piece (on Tuesday evening), I won’t make any updates here. Rather, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my rankings and my projections, which I will periodically update throughout the week.
     
  • Scoring & Ordering: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players are ordered within position roughly (but probably not precisely) according to my rankings as of writing.
     
  • Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use. (I don’t want to clutter up the intro by listing them all here.)
     
  • Sports Betting Data: Odds are as of 10:15 pm ET on Tuesday, Jan. 2, and based on the official Unabated Lines (the best representation of a market-making sportsbook consensus).
     
  • Resting Teams: The Ravens (No. 1), 49ers (No. 1), Chiefs (No. 3), and Browns (No. 5) all have their playoff seedings locked in, and the Rams will be either No. 6 or 7. As of writing, I’m assuming that all five teams will limit or entirely hold out their key starters this week.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 18 QBs

Dak Prescott (Cowboys) at Commanders

  • Cowboys: -13
  • O/U: 46
  • TT: 29.5

The Cowboys can secure the No. 2 seed with a win, so I expect them to play their starters per usual.

Prescott had a bounce-back performance last week (345 yards, two TDs passing to one INT), and in the 11 games since his embarrassing three-INT performance against the 49ers in a 42-10 road loss in Week 5, he has passed for 3,176 yards and 27 TDs with just four INTs and added 43-197-2 rushing. 

This is yet another situational smash spot for Prescott. As a regular-season favorite, he’s 48-33-2 ATS (14.3% ROI). In division, he’s 28-11 ATS (39.8% ROI). As a divisional favorite … 24-8 ATS (45.9% ROI, per Action Network).

On Thanksgiving in Week 12, Prescott passed for 331 yards and four TDs against the Commanders, who are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (20.4 FPPG).

Geno Smith (Seahawks) at Cardinals

  • Seahawks: -2.5
  • O/U: 48
  • TT: 25.25

This season has hardly been the consummation devoutly to be wished for the 2022 Comeback Player of the Year. Last season, Smith had eight games with 250-plus yards and multiple TD passes; this year, just four.

Geno

Dec 31, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith (7) carries the ball against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the second half at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

But he has looked good since returning in Week 16 from a groin injury that sidelined him for the previous two games, passing for 517 yards and three TDs and adding 4-35-0 rushing against the Titans and Steelers.

Smith had one of his best statistical performances of the year in Week 7 against the Cardinals (75.0% completion rate, 8.9 AY/A), who are No. 32 in defensive dropback SR (51.3%, per RBs Don’t Matter).

TyRod Taylor (Giants) vs. Eagles

  • Giants: +5
  • O/U: 41
  • TT: 18

The Giants have nothing to play for, but that was also the case last week when they gave full effort against the Rams in a last-second 26-25 loss. Taylor also had his best game of the season, with 319-1-1 passing and 6-40-0 rushing.

And this week, the Giants might have a little extra motivation, as they have the opportunity to put the definitive nail in the Eagles’ NFC East championship coffin. The Giants played the Eagles close in a 33-25 Week 15 loss, covering the spread.

This is a prime spot for HC Brian Daboll’s team to overperform expectations. Since joining the team last year, Daboll is 17-9-1 (24.2% ROI) in the regular season as an underdog, and he’s 8-2-1 (47.9% ROI) with QBs who aren’t Daniel Jones.

Specifically, Daboll is 3-0-1 ATS (68% ROI) with Taylor, who is 32-21-4 ATS (15.8% ROI) for his career and 10-3-1 ATS (43%) as a bridge/backup QB in his post-Bills days since 2018.

The Eagles are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (20.7).

Freedman’s Favorite Week 18 RBs

Rachaad White (Buccaneers) at Panthers

  • Buccaneers: -5.5
  • O/U: 37.5
  • TT: 21.5

The last time I highlighted White in this article was Week 13, when he turned 20 carries and five targets into 106 yards and a TD against these same Panthers. Don’t fix what ain’t broke.

I entered the season as a White skeptic, and I haven’t seen enough this year to make me change my mind: His career rushing efficiency is atrocious (3.7 yards per carry), and his average depth of target is uninspiring (-0.4 yards). 

But he’s the clear lead-back in his offense: He’s had fewer than 15 opportunities in just one game this season. And since the Week 5 bye, he has 1,154 yards and eight TDs on 190 carries and 53 targets in 12 games. Volume is king.

The Buccaneers can secure the NFC South with a win over the Panthers, who are No. 32 in defensive rush EPA (0.023) and SR (41.7%) and without LB Shaq Thompson (leg, IR).

Zamir White (Raiders) vs. Broncos

  • Raiders: -2.5
  • O/U: 39
  • TT: 20.75

No. 1 RB Josh Jacobs (quad) has missed the past three games and didn’t practice at all last week. I’m skeptical he’ll return to action for the season finale.

In his stead, White has 336 yards and a TD with a 70 snap rate, 74% rush rate, and 54% route rate over the past three weeks (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).

The Broncos are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (24.5).

Kenneth Walker (Seahawks) at Cardinals

  • Seahawks: -2.5
  • O/U: 48
  • TT: 25.25

I last noted Walker in this piece when he faced the Cardinals in Week 7, when he had 111 yards on 26 carries and three targets. Time is a flat circle.

Walker exited Week 11 with an oblique injury and missed Weeks 12-13, but since returning in Week 14, he has 297 yards and two TDs on 53 carries and 13 targets in four games despite dealing with a shoulder injury for the past two weeks.

The Cardinals are No. 31 in defensive rush SR (43.1%).

James Conner (Cardinals) vs. Seahawks

  • Cardinals: +2.5
  • O/U: 48
  • TT: 22.75

Conner is categorically unsexy, but the dude gets volume and knows what to do with it. In his seven games since returning from a midseason knee injury, Conner has leveraged 113 carries and 19 targets into 607 yards and six TDs.

The Seahawks are No. 31 in defensive rush EPA (0.014).

Tony Pollard (Cowboys) at Commanders

  • Cowboys: -13
  • O/U: 46
  • TT: 29.5

It would be the most “fantasy football thing” ever for Pollard to disappoint all year and then go off in Week 18.

Pollard

Dec 24, 2023; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Dallas Cowboys running back Tony Pollard (20) runs the ball against the Miami Dolphins during the second half at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

For what it’s worth, he had 103 yards and a TD on 13 carries and six targets in Week 12 when the Cowboys last played the Commanders, who are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (23.5).

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Devin Singletary (Texans) at Colts

  • Texans: -1
  • O/U: 47.5
  • TT: 24.25

Ever since he assumed the starting job in place of Dameon Pierce (who was out with an ankle injury and has since been relegated to the No. 2 role), Singletary has amassed 801 yards and three TDs on 143 carries and 28 targets over the past nine games. 

In that span, he has had 12-plus opportunities in every game but one.

The Colts are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (23.6).

Pierre Strong (Browns) at Bengals

  • Browns: +6
  • O/U: 38.5
  • TT: 16.25

Strong is just the No. 3 RB behind Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt, but he could see the supermajority of the backfield work this week if the Browns (locked into the No. 5 seed) decide to rest Ford because he’s the starter and Hunt because he’s old.

While Strong hasn’t seen much usage across his two-year career (59 carries, 14 targets), he has flashed with his opportunities (5.5 yards per carry, 6.4 yards per target).

He has potential and a great matchup: The Bengals are No. 29 in defensive rush SR (42.5%) and without impact DT D.J. Reader (quad, IR).

Freedman’s Favorite Week 18 WRs

CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys) at Commanders

  • Cowboys: -13
  • O/U: 46
  • TT: 29.5

Lamb has a league-high 122 receptions and is No. 2 — behind only RB Christian McCaffrey — with 1,757 yards from scrimmage. With four straight seasons of 1,000-plus scrimmage yards to open his career, Lamb is on a Hall-of-Fame trajectory.

He has been especially hot in the aftermath of the team’s devastating Week 5 loss to the 49ers, putting up 95-1,293-9 receiving on 133 targets and 10-85-2 rushing with a two-point conversion in 11 games.

Lamb is the No. 1 red-zone receiver in the league, with 26 targets inside the 20-yard line. 

The Commanders are No. 31 in defensive dropback EPA (0.177) and could be without starting CBs Benjamin St-Juste (concussion) and Kendall Fuller (knee), as well as backup CBs Christian Holmes (concussion) and Tariq Castro-Fields (shoulder).

Justin Jefferson (Vikings) at Lions

  • Vikings: +3
  • O/U: 45.5
  • TT: 21.25

Since returning in Week 15 from hamstring and chest injuries, Jefferson has 18-284-1 receiving on 30 targets, and in his seven full games this year, he has 51-827-4 receiving on 77 targets.

Since Day 3 rookie QB Jaren Hall was benched last week at halftime, I expect veteran Nick Mullens to draw the start this week, which should be a net positive for Jefferson.

Two weeks ago with Mullens, Jefferson had 6-141-1 receiving on 10 targets against the Lions, who are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (32.4).

A.J. Brown (Eagles) at Giants

  • Eagles: -5
  • O/U: 41
  • TT: 23

Last week, Brown had just 4-53-0 receiving on five targets, but I expect a bounce back this week: Brown has twice previously had as few as six targets this year (Weeks 2 & 11), and in both instances, he has rebounded with elite usage over the next five games (59 targets in Weeks 3-7; 56 in Weeks 12-16).

With WR DeVonta Smith (ankle) dealing with an injury, Brown should have a high target floor and a high-efficiency ceiling (9.7 yards per target since joining the Eagles last year).

Two weeks ago, Brown had 6-80-0 receiving against the Giants, who are No. 29 in defensive dropback SR (48.3%) and might be without CB Deonte Banks (shoulder), who missed last week.

Michael Pittman (Colts) vs. Texans

  • Colts: +1
  • O/U: 47.5
  • TT: 23.25

Pittman entered the campaign with 2,007 yards and 10 TDs receiving over the previous two seasons, and in 15 games this year, he has 150 targets, which he has leveraged into 104-1,108-4 receiving.

He had 12 targets against the Texans in Week 2, and he could see similar volume this week with both teams fighting for a playoff spot.

DK Metcalf (Seahawks) at Cardinals

  • Seahawks: -2.5
  • O/U: 48
  • TT: 25.25

Metcalf is a boom/bust player, but in 11 games since the Week 5 bye, he has 47-836-6 receiving on 90 targets. And he has been hot over the past eight games with 37-650-6 receiving on 63 targets.

The Cardinals are No. 32 in defensive dropback EPA (0.193).

Nico Collins (Texans) at Jaguars

  • Texans: -1
  • O/U: 47.5
  • TT: 24.25

Collins balled out against the Colts in Week 2 with 7-146-1 receiving on nine targets, and he could have elite usage this week with WRs Noah Brown (hip) and Robert Woods (hip) dealing with injuries — not to mention the notable absence of WR Tank Dell (leg, IR).

The Colts are already without CB Dallis Flowers (Achilles, IR) and SS Julan Blackmon (shoulder, IR), and they might also be without a third secondary starter in CB Kenny Moore (back), who missed last week.

Davante Adams (Raiders) vs. Broncos

  • Raiders: -2.5
  • O/U: 39
  • TT: 20.75

In only two of eight games with interim HC Antonio Pierce have the Raiders managed more than 20 points. Scoring is at a premium in Las Vegas.

But I’m cautiously optimistic with Adams.

Davante

Dec 31, 2023; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Davante Adams (17) catches a ball in the second half against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

In QB Aidan O’Connell’s nine starts, Adams has a respectable 59-634-4 receiving and outright dominant 102 targets. With that kind of volume, Adams has the upside for a classic performance, such as the one we saw last week (13-126-2 receiving, 21 targets).

And Adams could’ve had an even bigger performance last week than the one he had: He led the league with 143 unrealized air yards.

Adams is No. 1 in the league with an 80.8% WOPR.

In his three matchups against the Broncos since joining the Raiders last year, Adams has 22-308-2 receiving on 35 targets.

Calvin Ridley (Jaguars) at Titans

  • Jaguars: -5.5
  • O/U: 40
  • TT: 22.75

Since WR Christian Kirk (groin, IR) exited Week 13 early, Ridley has garnered 50 targets in five games. His production has been mediocre (23-247-2 receiving), but I’m expecting positive regression given the sheer volume he’s recently seen, especially since WR Jamal Agnew (leg, IR) is out and WR Zay Jones (knee, hamstring) is uncertain after missing Weeks 16-17. 

In Week 11, Ridley had 7-103-2 receiving on nine targets against the Titans, who are No. 30 in defensive dropback EPA (0.135) and SR (48.7%).

Ridley is a high-end WR2 if QB Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) is able to start — and I expect him to suit up.

Adam Thielen (Panthers) vs. Buccaneers

  • Panthers: +5.5
  • O/U: 37.5
  • TT: 16

The last time I highlighted Thielen was against the Buccaneers in Week 13, so at least you know I’m consistent. Yes, he had just 3-25-0 receiving on six targets, so I guess so much for consistency — but I still like the matchup Thielen has in the slot against undrafted rookie CB Christian Izien, who has allowed a 79.7% catch rate (per PFF).

In the four games since Thielen did nothing against the Bucs, he has 249 yards receiving on 28 targets, and he could see more usage this week with WR Jonathan Mingo (foot, IR) now sidelined. 

Rashid Shaheed (Saints) vs. Falcons

  • Saints: -3
  • O/U: 42
  • TT: 22.5

Shaheed is almost always undervalued relative to his upside. For his career, he has averaged 10.9 yards per target and 8.5 yards per carry. He’s a consistent threat to break a big play.

This year, Shaheed has scored in four of 14 games (not counting his 76-yard punt return TD). In these games, he has averaged 99.3 yards receiving on six targets (vs. 25.7 yards on 4.7 targets in his scoreless contests). When Shaheed finds the endzone, he also discovers a whole lot of yardage.

He could hit paydirt this week against the Falcons, who might be without slot CB Mike Hughes (concussion), who exited last week with a head injury.

Gabe Davis (Bills) vs. Broncos

  • Bills: -3
  • O/U: 49.5
  • TT: 26.25

Davis is a boom/bust receiver, and this feels like it could be a boom week: CB Xavien Howard (foot) is likely out this week, which means the Dolphins could use CB Jalen Ramsey in shadow coverage on No. 1 WR Stefon Diggs. 

And if that happens, Davis could find himself as the fantasy beneficiary of a whole lot of volume.

Davis has scored in seven of 16 games this year, and in those games, he has averaged 87.1 yards receiving and five receptions on 7.4 targets. When Davis scores, he puts up WR1 numbers, and he scores not infrequently thanks to the offense he’s in.

Against the Dolphins in Week 4, Davis had 3-61-1 receiving on three targets.

Greg Dortch (Cardinals) vs. Seahawks

  • Cardinals: +2.5
  • O/U: 48
  • TT: 22.75

WR Michael Wilson missed Weeks 11-14 with a shoulder injury, and then WR Marquise Brown (heel) exited Week 15 early and missed Weeks 16-17, so Dortch has had a snap rate of at least 65% and a route rate of at least 70% in each of the past six games.

With that playing time, he has led the Cardinals WRs with a 17% target share, which he has leveraged into a position-high 21-264-2 receiving (to go along with a five-yard carry, eight kick returns, and eight punt returns). 

That’s not exciting — but it’s also not nothing.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 18 TEs

Trey McBride (Cardinals) vs. Seahawks

  • Cardinals: +2.5
  • O/U: 48
  • TT: 22.75

McBride disappointed last year as a rookie (29-265-1 receiving, 39 targets), but this year, the 2021 unanimous All-American and Mackey Award winner has taken a big step forward: Since TE Zach Ertz was sidelined with a quad injury in Week 7 (and subsequently released), McBride leads the team with 63-621-2 receiving and 79 targets in nine games.

The Seahawks could be at less than 100% in TE defense without SS Jamal Adams (knee, IR) and maybe LB Jordyn Brooks (ankle), who missed last week.

Darren Waller (Giants) vs. Eagles

  • Giants: +5
  • O/U: 41
  • TT: 18

Waller is no longer the heyday alpha he once was, but since returning in Week 15 from a hamstring injury, he has seen six, five, and six targets over the past three games.

Waller

Dec 25, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; New York Giants tight end Darren Waller (12) in the tunnel against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

He didn’t do much against the Eagles in Week 16 (2-32-0 receiving on five targets). Still, even with new S Kevin Byard (acquired via trade with the Titans in October), the Eagles have continued to allow TEs to produce after losing SS C.J. Gardner-Johnson, FS Marcus Epps, and LBs Kyzir White and T.J. Edwards this offseason.

Since Byard joined the team in Week 9, the Eagles have allowed Logan Thomas (6-44-1), Jake Ferguson (7-91-1, 5-72-0), Travis Kelce (7-44-1), Dalton Kincaid (5-38-0), George Kittle (4-68-0), and Trey McBride (6-48-0) to put up respectable-at-worst numbers almost every week. 

Austin Hooper (Raiders) vs. Broncos

  • Raiders: -2.5
  • O/U: 39
  • TT: 20.75

No. 1 TE Michael Mayer (toe) has missed the past two games, and I doubt he’ll play this week after missing all of practice last week.

In his absence, Hooper has a 77% route rate. That gives him a shot to do more than most people would expect against the Broncos, who are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (13.2).

Abbreviations

  • Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
  • Against the Spread (ATS)
  • Over/Under (O/U)
  • Team Total (TT)
  • Moneyline (ML)
  • Return on Investment (ROI)
  • Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
  • Expected Points Added (EPA)
  • Success Rate (SR)
  • Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
  • Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
  • AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
  • Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
  • Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
FF