Very Serious Note to Editor: Insert INTRO here.

I’m very serious.

I don’t feel like writing an introduction, and I noticed that -- in last week’s intro -- you took the liberty of inserting an ellipsis in one of my sentences … as if I would EVER use an ellipsis!

Ellipses are lazy … and insipid. I’d never.

Also, you put an umlaut above the “i” in the word “naïve.” Really. Who does that? Are you French? Or are you from a French-speaking part of Canada?

Also, I’m not 100% sure that actually is an umlaut … I claim total naïveté when it comes to foreign languages … but that’s definitely a diacritical mark of some sort.

And I shan’t have it in my intros. I SHAN’T!

Anyway: Insert ïntrö heré.

Freedman’s Favorites for Week 6

Here are my preliminary Week 6 favorites. These are the guys who (in some combination) …

  • Might be high in my fantasy rankings relative to the industry consensus.
  • Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
  • Must be added if they are on waivers.
  • Possess underappreciated upside.
  • Have advantageous matchups.
  • Appear in my DFS player pool.
  • Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
  • Are on teams with player-friendly betting odds.
  • Catch my eye with their player projections.
  • Stand out in our player prop tool.

Some notes.

  • Updates: After I submit this piece (usually on Tuesday night), I won’t make any updates here. Rather, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my rankings and my projections, which I will periodically update throughout the week.
  • Scoring & Ordering: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players are ordered within position roughly (but probably not precisely) according to my rankings as of writing.
  • Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use. (I don’t want to clutter up the intro by listing them all here.)
  • Sports Betting Data: Odds are as of 8:00 pm ET on Tuesday, Oct. 10, and based on the official Unabated Lines (the best representation of a market-making sportsbook consensus).
  • Bye Week: The Packers and Steelers are off this week.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 6 QBs

Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) vs. Broncos

  • Chiefs: -10.5
  • O/U: 47
  • TT: 28.75

Mahomes hasn’t been his usual spectacular self five weeks into the season, but since his first year as a starter (2018), he is No. 1 in FPPG (26.7).

And last week he had a respectable 281 yards and two TDs passing. He has multiple TDs passing in every game this year but one.

Patrick Mahomes

Jan 30, 2022; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) looks toward the huddle against the Cincinnati Bengals during the AFC Championship game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Last year he led the league with 5,250 yards and 41 TDs passing -- not to mention 123 redzone pass attempts -- and he has lowkey rushing ability (20-plus rushing yards per game in each of the past three years, 30.8 this year).

In 2022 the Chiefs were No. 1 in the league in dropback over expectation (9.04%), and this week they have an exceptional matchup against the Broncos, who are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (21.6 FPPG).

Mahomes is now the MVP frontrunner: The best price available on him is +450 (DraftKings). I have a +500 ticket on him to win MVP logged in our FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker.

Kirk Cousins (Vikings) at Bears

  • Vikings: -2.5
  • O/U: 45 
  • TT: 23.75

It’s easy to dog on Cousins -- especially now that No. 1 WR Justin Jefferson (hamstring, IR) is out -- but he has at least 3,500 yards and 25 TDs passing in each of his five full seasons with the Vikings, and this year he leads the league with 13 passing TDs and is the only player with multiple TDs passing in all five games played.

Last year he completed an absurd 80.3% of his passes in two games against the Bears, who are No. 31 in defensive dropback EPA (0.291, per RBs Don’t Matter).

Matthew Stafford (Rams) vs. Cardinals

  • Rams: -6.5
  • O/U: 48
  • TT: 27.25

Even though Stafford isn’t much of a runner (he has actually outperformed expectations with 10-49-0 rushing this year), he has an elevated floor with either 300 yards or multiple TDs passing in every game this year but one.

And with the return of No. 1 WR Cooper Kupp and the development of WRs of Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell, Stafford might legitimately have the league’s best WR trio.

The Cardinals are No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA (33.0%, per FTN).

Freedman’s Favorite Week 6 RBs

David Montgomery (Lions) at Buccaneers

  • Lions: -3
  • O/U: 44
  • TT: 23.5

Montgomery exited Week 2 early with a thigh injury and missed Week 3, but in Weeks 1 & 4-5 he had a dominant 344 yards and five TDs on 72 carries and six targets. For the season, he leads the league with 12 broken tackles forced.

With 1,000-plus yards and 25-plus receptions in each of his four full NFL seasons (2019-22 Bears), Montgomery has a three-down skill set.

David Montgomery

Sep 7, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Detroit Lions running back David Montgomery (5) runs for a touchdown against Kansas City Chiefs cornerback Trent McDuffie (22) during the second half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

He could be without No. 2 RB Jahmyr Gibbs (hamstring), who missed last week as a late addition to the injury report, and the Buccaneers are No. 29 in defensive rush SR (45.3%).

I’m not a big bettor in the anytime TD market, but Montgomery has an NFL-high eight carries inside the five-yard line, and he has scored a TD in every game played this year.

Plus, last week he narrowly missed out on two TDs by getting tackled at the one-yard line (sheesh, right?).

Austin Ekeler (Chargers) vs. Cowboys

  • Chargers: +2
  • O/U: 51
  • TT: 24.5

Ekeler (ankle) suffered an injury in Week 1 but played through it to deliver a champion-level performance with 164 yards and a TD on 16 carries and five targets … and then he missed the next three games.

But he should be healthy now coming out of the Week 6 bye against the Cowboys, who are No. 31 in defensive rush SR (49.2%) and playing their second consecutive West Coast contest. In a #RevengeGame for OC Kellen Moore against his former team, I expect the Chargers to be in peak offensive form with 15 days between games.

In his two-plus years under HC Brandon Staley, Ekeler has put up 3,359 yards and 39 TDs from scrimmage in 34 games.

Raheem Mostert (Dolphins) vs. Panthers

  • Dolphins: -13.5 
  • O/U: 48.5
  • TT: 31

Although rookie RB De’Von Achane has been a dominant force over the past three weeks, Mostert still has 265 yards and five TDs on 30 carries and 14 targets since Week 3 -- and now Achane (knee) is dealing with an injury that took him out of Week 5 and has subsequently landed him on IR.

Plus, RB Jeff Wilson (rib/finger, IR) is uncertain to return to action this week, and even if he does Mostert should still play ahead of him.

With 12-plus opportunities in every game this season, Mostert could see plenty of work as a massive home favorite against the Panthers, who are No. 32 in defensive rush EPA (0.156), SR (49.6%), and DVOA (21.8%) and without LB Shaq Thompson (ankle, IR).

This week, the Dolphins have the league’s highest implied team total (31 points). Smash city.

Alexander Mattison (Vikings) at Bears

  • Vikings: -2.5
  • O/U: 45 
  • TT: 23.75

Mattison’s playing time (80%, 69%, and 51% of snaps) and combined carries and targets (27, 18, and 11) have trended down over the past three games -- and it might not be a coincidence that his decline in usage aligns with the emergence of No. 2 RB Cam Akers in Week 4.

Even so, Mattison (60% rush rate, 42% route rate) has played well ahead of Akers (26% rush rate, 22% route rate) in their two games together (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report) -- and after disappointing in Weeks 1-2 (83 yards, one TD) he has flashed since Week 3 (269 yards, one TD).  

The Vikings might funnel their offense more through their backfield without WR Justin Jefferson (hamstring, IR), and the Bears are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (27.1 FPPG).

James Cook (Bills) vs. Giants

  • Bills: -14 
  • O/U: 45
  • TT: 29.5

Cook underwhelmed in Week 5 (21 yards on five carries, four targets), but that came in a 25-20 loss to the Jaguars in London. I’m not expecting that kind of lackluster performance this week given that the Bills are at home and have a slate-high -14 spread against the Giants, who are No. 30 in defensive rush EPA (+0.033).

In two losses this year, Cook has put up 42 yards, zero TDs, and six fantasy points on 13.5 opportunities per game.

In three wins, Cook has averaged 116 yards, 0.33 TDs, and 14.8 fantasy points on 17.3 opportunities.

Kyren Williams (Rams) vs. Cardinals

  • Rams: -6.5
  • O/U: 48
  • TT: 27.25

Williams is small (5-9, 194 lbs.) -- but that’s the only drawback with the second-year player. In every game this year, he has earned a minimum of 15 opportunities and seen at least a 65% snap rate.

For the season, he has 403 yards and six TDs, and he has a balanced three-down skill set (77 carries, 24 targets).  

He should see steady work as a respectable home favorite against the Cardinals, who are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (25.8 FPPG).

Isiah Pacheco (Chiefs) vs. Broncos

  • Chiefs: -10.5
  • O/U: 47
  • TT: 28.75

Pacheco disappointed in Weeks 1-2 with 124 scoreless scrimmage yards, but he has impressed since then with a clean 300 yards and three touchdowns on 51 carries and seven targets over the past three games.

He has 12-plus opportunities in every game this year, and he could approach 20 touches with multiple goal-line opportunities as a double-digit home favorite against the Broncos, who are No. 31 in defensive rush EPA (0.092) and DVOA (14.8%).

Freedman’s Favorite Week 6 WRs

Ja’Marr Chase (Bengals) vs. Seahawks

  • Bengals: -2.5
  • O/U: 44.5
  • TT: 23.5

Chase, along with the entire Bengals offense, disappointed in Weeks 1-2 (10-70-0 receiving on 17 targets, 1-2-0 rushing), but he was undeniably studly in Weeks 3-5 (34-406-3 receiving on 43 targets).

With 2,501 yards and 22 TDs receiving across his first two seasons, the third-year Chase is still very much one of the league’s best receivers, and he could see extra volume if No. 2 WR Tee Higgins (ribs) once again sits out.

The Seahawks are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (38.8 FPPG).

Stefon Diggs (Bills) vs. Giants

  • Bills: -14 
  • O/U: 45
  • TT: 29.5

Diggs has an NFL-high four games this year with 100-plus yards receiving, and he has five TDs and 50 targets through five weeks.

He is No. 4 in the NFL with 4,709 yards receiving since the Bills acquired him in 2020.

The Giants are No. 29 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 WRs (34.3%).

Cooper Kupp (Rams) vs. Cardinals

  • Rams: -6.5
  • O/U: 48
  • TT: 27.25

Kupp returned to action last week from the hamstring injury that sidelined him for the first month of the season, and he looked like himself with 8-118-0 receiving on 12 targets. It’s just a one-game sample, but so far he has a league-high 83.4% WOPR.

Cooper Kupp

Nov 6, 2022; Tampa, Florida, USA; Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp (10) runs for a touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the second quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Despite missing the second half of last season with a high ankle sprain, Kupp has an absurd 261-3,355-28 receiving with 9.8 yards per target and 16-75-1 rushing since 2021 (31 games, including playoffs).

The Cardinals are No. 31 in defensive dropback SR (52.3%) and could be without FS Jalen Thompson (hamstring), who has been the team’s primary slot defender and exited Week 5 with an injury.

CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys) at Chargers

  • Cowboys: -2
  • O/U: 51
  • TT: 26.5

Lamb has three consecutive seasons with 1,000-plus scrimmage yards -- he has 32-226-1 rushing for his career -- and this year he’s pacing for another 1,200-yard campaign.

He has underperformed the past few weeks (12-138-1 receiving on 18 targets, 3-21-0 rushing), but I expect the Cowboys to make his Week 6 involvement a priority.

The Chargers are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (40.0 FPPG).

Puka Nacua (Rams) vs. Cardinals

  • Rams: -6.5
  • O/U: 48
  • TT: 27.25

Even with the return of Kupp, the rookie Nacua played like a WR1 last week with 7-71-1 receiving on 11 targets.

For the season, Nacua leads the league with 63 targets and 46 receptions, which he has leveraged into 572 yards and two TDs. Given the connection he has established with QB Matthew Stafford, Nacua can coexist with Kupp as a WR1.

The Cardinals are No. 29 in defensive dropback EPA (0.166).

D.J. Moore (Bears) vs. Vikings

  • Bears: +2.5
  • O/U: 45
  • TT: 21.25

Moore didn’t start the season strong (2-25-0 receiving on two targets in Week 1), but since Week 2 he has 25-506-5 receiving on 32 targets -- and Moore led the league in scoring last week with 45 fantasy points.  

And it’s not as if this recent production is a fluke: He was productive (5,201 yards receiving, 335 yards rushing) and efficient (8.4 yards per target, 8.6 yards per carry) with the Panthers for the first half-decade of his career before joining the Bears this offseason -- despite dealing with subpar QB play.

The Vikings are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (38.2 FPPG).

Adam Thielen (Panthers) at Falcons

  • Panthers: +13.5
  • O/U: 48.5
  • TT: 17.5

With his shift to the slot, Thielen has reemerged as an attractive fantasy option in his first season with the Panthers. He struggled in Week 1 while playing through an ankle injury (2-12-0 receiving, two targets), but since Week 2 he has been a machine with 36-382-3 receiving on 44 targets, 1-6-0 rushing, and a two-point conversion.

Even with rookie QB Bryce Young going through his first-year growing pains, Thielen projects forward as a reliable player. 

The Dolphins are No. 30 in defensive dropback SR (51.9%), and slot CB Kader Kohou has allowed an 85.2% catch rate and 9.3 yards per target this year.

Gabe Davis (Bills) vs. Giants

  • Bills: -14 
  • O/U: 45
  • TT: 29.5

Even since HC Sean McDermott -- after the team’s Week 1 loss -- implicitly called out Davis by saying that the team needed someone to step up behind No. 1 WR Stefon Diggs, he has balled out with an efficient 16-288-4 receiving on 22 targets.

Davis is unlikely ever to live up to the hype he carried with him into the 2022 campaign after his 8-201-4 receiving performance on 10 targets against the Chiefs in the Divisional Round the prior year -- but he’s still an explosive playmaker with 9.4 yards per target for his career, and he’s attached to QB Josh Allen.

The Giants are No. 30 in defensive dropback EPA (0.166).

Zay Flowers (Ravens) vs. Titans (in London)

  • Ravens: -4
  • O/U: 41
  • TT: 22.5

Even with the return last week of WRs Odell Beckham and Rashod Bateman, Flowers was still easily the No. 1 WR on the Ravens with a 100% route rate, 11 targets, and 168 air yards.

For the year, Flowers has a respectable 328 yards on 40 targets, 29 receptions, and five carries -- and with that kind of production he should find the endzone soon (zero TDs).

The Titans are No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 WRs (57.7%).

Christian Kirk (Jaguars) vs. Colts

  • Jaguars: -4
  • O/U: 45
  • TT: 24.5

I’m skeptical that WR Zay Jones (knee) will play this week given that he exited Week 5 early after aggravating the injury that forced him from Week 2 and held him out of Weeks 3-4.

If Jones is out, Kirk should continue to serve as the clear No. 2 WR in the Jaguars' offense, and in that role over the past month, he has flashed with 29-326-1 receiving on 40 targets and 1-6-0 rushing. 

The Colts are No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 2 WRs (47.3%) and without CB Dallis Flowers (Achilles, IR).

Jordan Addison (Vikings) at Bears

  • Vikings: -2.5
  • O/U: 45 
  • TT: 23.75

Without WR Justin Jefferson (hamstring, IR), Addison is slated to be the No. 1 WR for the Vikings offense, and aside from a game-scripted one-target Week 4 stinker, he has looked like a competent and consistent pass catcher with five-plus targets and 50-plus yards in each game and 19-249-3 receiving on 29 targets for the year. 

The Bears rank No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA (37.6%), are without slot CB Kyler Gordon (hand, IR) and his backup Josh Blackwell (hamstring, IR), and might also be without No. 1 CB Jaylon Johnson (hamstring) and FS Eddie Jackson (foot), both of whom missed Week 5.

Side Note: Vikings WR K.J. Osborn is someone to add off waivers and also consider for this week, although I prefer Addison.

Justin Watson (Chiefs) at Vikings

  • Chiefs: -10.5
  • O/U: 47
  • TT: 28.75

I’m going to keep banging on this drum: Watson is the team’s No. 3 WR in terms of route rate (52%) and target share (9%) -- but he’s No. 1 on the team in air yards (372) and No. 2 in yards receiving (219), barely trailing TE Travis Kelce (222).

Since joining the Chiefs last year, Watson has been an efficient pass catcher (10.7 yards per target), and this year especially he has been a downfield threat (22.5-yard aDOT).

With his production profile, he’s destined for a big game at some point.

Why not against the Broncos, who are No. 32 in defensive dropback EPA (0.328) and SR (53.7%)?

Freedman’s Favorite Week 6 TEs

Dallas Goedert (Eagles) at Jets

  • Eagles: -7
  • O/U: 41
  • TT: 24

Goedert was unspeakably bad for the first month of the season (13-88-0 receiving, 19 targets) -- and then last week he went off with 8-117-1 receiving on nine targets.

And it’s not as if this was out of nowhere: He has an elite 95.2% snap rate this year and a position-high 91% route rate.

In his two-plus seasons under HC Nick Sirianni, Godert has averaged 5.4 targets per game and 10.0 yards per target, and last year he was the No. 1 TE with an 88% route rate.

The Jets are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (14.5 FPPG).

Zach Ertz (Cardinals) at Rams

  • Cardinals: +7
  • O/U: 48
  • TT: 20.5

Ertz is No. 2 on the Cardinals and No. 4 at the position with 34 targets. What he has done with that volume is relatively unimpressive (22-146-1 receiving). With 4.3 yards per target, he’s essentially a catch-and-fall specialist -- but his target volume can’t be ignored.

Without SS Taylor Rapp and FS Nick Scott, both of whom departed this past offseason in free agency, the Rams are No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA against TEs (42.1%).

Logan Thomas (Commanders) at Falcons

  • Commanders: +2.5
  • O/U: 42
  • TT: 19.75

Thomas has struggled with health issues since his 2020 breakout season (72-670-6 receiving), and he exited Week 2 and missed Week 3 with a concussion, but in every game played this year he has either 40-plus yards or a TD, and in his three full contests he has averaged 7.3 targets.

The Falcons are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (13.4 FPPG).

Freedman's Favorites