Fantasy

Freedman's Favorites. The Best Fantasy Football Plays For Week 8.

by Matthew Freedman

1 year ago

My friends.

We’ve survived the bye-mageddon of Week 7, and now we’re into the no-bye Week 8.

Every team is on the board. Praise be to the fantasy gawds.

And given the schedule for most leagues, we are now at the exact midpoint of the fantasy regular season.

Seven weeks down, seven to go, and then the playoffs.

Eye of the tiger. Keep churning those legs.

Become the grindstone.

Freedman’s Favorites for Week 8

Here are my preliminary Week 8 favorites. These are the guys who (in some combination) …

Might be high in my fantasy rankings relative to the industry consensus.
Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
Must be added if they are on waivers.
Possess underappreciated upside.
Have advantageous matchups.
Appear in my DFS player pool.
Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
Are on teams with player-friendly betting odds.
Catch my eye with their player projections.
Stand out in our player prop tool.

Some notes:

Updates: After I submit this piece (usually on Tuesday night), I won’t make any updates here. Rather, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my rankings and my projections, which I will periodically update throughout the week.
Rankings Accuracy: As of Week 6, I’m No. 16 in the FantasyPros Accuracy Contest (Week 7 is not graded as of writing). Last year, I was No. 11, and the year before that, No. 14. In total, I’ve finished in the top 20 five times.
Scoring & Ordering: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players are ordered within position roughly (but probably not precisely) according to my rankings as of writing.
Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use. (I don’t want to clutter up the intro by listing them all here.)
Sports Betting Data: Odds are as of 8:30 pm ET on Tuesday, Oct. 24, and based on the official Unabated Lines (the best representation of a market-making sportsbook consensus).
Bye Week: No teams are on bye this week.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 8 QBs

Lamar Jackson (Ravens) at Cardinals

Ravens: -8.5
O/U: 44
TT: 26.25

Jackson didn’t play poorly in Weeks 1-6 (69.9% completion rate, 7.0 AY/A), but the offense under new OC Todd Monken sputtered. Too often, pass catchers sabotaged drives with drops, and red-zone opportunities turned into field goals instead of TDs.

In Week 7, though, Jackson channeled his 2019 MVP form with 357 yards and three TDs passing to zero INTs and 9-36-1 rushing. The Ravens offense is rounding into shape.

The Cardinals are No. 31 in defensive dropback SR (53.3%, per RBs Don’t Matter), and Jackson is now No. 4 in the MVP market at +700 (Caesars).

Justin Herbert (Chargers) vs. Bears

Chargers: -8.5
O/U: 46.5
TT: 27.5

In his first three games, Herbert looked unstoppable with 939 yards and six TDs passing to no INTs (74.4% completion rate, 8.8 AY/A).

But in the second half of Week 3, the Chargers lost WR Mike Williams (knee, IR) for the year, and without him, Herbert, in the three games since, has been mediocre with 654 yards and four TDs passing to four INTs (57.1% completion rate, 6.1 AY/A).

Oct 22, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) throws a pass during the second half against the Kansas City Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

He’s in a decent bounce-back spot against the Bears, who are No. 29 in defensive dropback EPA (0.182) and could be without FS Eddie Jackson (foot), who has missed most of the past six weeks to injury.

Tyson Bagent (Bears) at Chargers

Bears: +8.5
O/U: 46.5
TT: 19

As I noted in my Week 7 betting review, “T Bag” looked competent in his first NFL start (21-of-29 passing, 70 QBR, just one sack, no turnovers).

As a small-school rookie backup, he’s far from a sure thing — but he won the 2021 Harlon Hill Trophy as the best Division II player in the nation, and he was good enough in training camp to beat out veterans P.J. Walker and Nathan Peterman for the No. 2 QB job. He might be able to play in the NFL.

And this week for him is all about the matchup: The Chargers are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (23.7 FPPG).

I expect him to get at least one more start in place of the injured Justin Fields (thumb), who missed last week and is doubtful this week.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 8 RBs

Christian McCaffrey (49ers) vs. Bengals

49ers: -5.5
O/U: 45
TT: 25.25

McCaffrey (oblique) exited Week 6 early with an injury, but he played through his questionable tag in Week 7 and had 96 yards and two TDs on 15 carries and three targets. Even if McCaffrey isn’t 100% healthy, he’s still 100% better than most NFL RBs.

In his 21 games with the 49ers, McCaffrey has 2,335 yards and 24 TDs on 324 carries and 109 targets (including playoffs). This year, McCaffrey is No. 1 in TDs (11) and No. 2 in yards (826).

He should have his usual workload as a home favorite against the Bengals, who are Nos. 25 & 26 in defensive rush SR (42.2%) and EPA (-0.018).

With QB Brock Purdy, the 49ers are 8-0 ATS (91.2% ROI) as home favorites (per Action Network).

Breece Hall (Jets) at Giants

Jets: -3
O/U: 36.5
TT: 19.75

In Weeks 1-4, Hall had 32 carries and eight targets with a 40% snap rate as he returned from last year’s season-ending knee injury. But in Weeks 5-6, the Jets gave him a 60% snap rate, 34 carries, and eight targets (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).

With this amplified workload, Hall has put up 287 yards and two TDs over his past two games.

Coming off the Week 7 bye, he should continue to see similar usage, and I expect him to have comparable production against the Giants, who are No. 29 in defensive rush EPA (0.013) and don’t even have a true home-field advantage in this spot, given that the Jets also play at MetLife Stadium.

Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs. Raiders

Lions: -8.5
O/U: 46
TT: 27.25

If No. 1 RB David Montgomery (ribs) returns to action, he’ll take precedence in this backfield. However, I expect him to miss one more game since the Lions have tended to be conservative this year with players returning from injury. Montgomery didn’t practice at all last week.

In his two games without Montgomery (Weeks 3 & 7), Gibbs has amassed 208 yards and a TD on 28 carries, 12 targets, and a 73.9% snap rate. That works.

Gibbs could see significant work as a large home favorite, and the Raiders are No. 31 in defensive rush EPA (0.025) and SR (46.9%).

Isiah Pacheco (Chiefs) at Broncos

Chiefs: -7.5
O/U: 46.5
TT: 27

Pacheco disappointed in Weeks 1-2 with 124 scoreless scrimmage yards, but he has impressed with 458 yards and five TDs on 80 carries and 17 targets in five games since then.

He has 12-plus opportunities in every game this year, and he could approach 20 touches with multiple goal-line opportunities against the Broncos, who are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (33.8 FPPG).

Gus Edwards (Ravens) at Cardinals

Ravens: -8.5
O/U: 44
TT: 26.25

Edwards is still in a committee with RB Justice Hill, and QB Lamar Jackson is always liable to steal some designed attempts. Still, Edwards has 10-16 carries in each of the six games since No. 1 RB J.K. Dobbins (Achilles, IR) suffered a season-ending injury in Week 1.

Oct 22, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens running back Gus Edwards (35) celebrates his touchdown with wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr (3) during the second quarter against the Detroit Lions at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports

And over the past month — since Hill returned in Week 4 from a toe injury that sidelined him for a game — Edwards has seen an increase in his workload and played as the clear lead back with a 56.9% snap rate, 54% rush rate, and 38% route rate.

Throughout his career, Edwards has been a highly efficient runner with 5.0 yards per carry.

He could benefit from a heavy workload as a big favorite against the Cardinals, who are No. 30 in defensive rush SR (45.8%).

Darrell Henderson (Rams) at Cowboys

Rams: +6.5
O/U: 45.5
TT: 19.5

Nos. 1 & 2 RBs Kyren Williams (ankle, IR) and Ronnie Rivers (knee, IR) are out, and in their absence last week, Henderson — just signed off the couch — led the Rams backfield with a 58% snap rate, 60% carry rate, and 41% route rate.

His production (66 yards, one TD) wasn’t notable, but his workload (18 carries, two targets) was strong, especially in a game the Rams lost by seven points.

With another week on the team, Henderson could have an even more prominent role against the Cowboys, who are No. 29 in defensive rush SR (45.4%).

Henderson is a top waiver priority if he’s available in your league.

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots) at Dolphins

Patriots: +9.5
O/U: 47
TT: 18.75

I hate the idea of backing Rhamondre this week. I entered 2023 thinking it would be StevenSZN, but it hasn’t been. At all. Since Week 5, he hasn’t had more than 10 carries in a game as No. 2 RB Ezekiel Elliott has seized an annoying share of the rushing workload.

But over the past two weeks, Stevenson has been massively involved in the receiving game (59% route rate, 20% target share, 29% target rate, 84% long down-and-distance snap rate, 100% two-minute snap rate) — and he has been involved enough in the running game (19 carries).

With his overall workload, he has put up 155 yards and a TD since Week 6, making him viable.

The Dolphins are No. 28 in defensive rush SR (44.1%) and might be without LB David Long (concussion), who exited last week with a head injury.

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Freedman’s Favorite Week 8 WRs

A.J. Brown (Eagles) at Commanders

Eagles: -6.5
O/U: 43
TT: 24.75

Brown had a meh-tacular start to the season with 108 scoreless yards in Weeks 1-2, but since then, he has returned to form and then some with 41-701-3 receiving and five straight 100-yard performances on 59 targets in five games.

For the season, Brown is No. 1 with a 48.2% air share.

In his 23 regular season games with the Eagles since joining the team last year, Brown has 140-2,305-14 receiving with an electric 10.5 yards per target.

In Week 4, Brown went off for 9-175-2 receiving on 13 targets against the Commanders, who have allowed comparable performances this year to other No. 1 WRs in Stefon Diggs (8-111-0, 12 targets), D.J. Moore (8-230-3, 10 targets), and Drake London (9-125-0, 12 targets).

Keenan Allen (Chargers) vs. Bears

Chargers: -8.5
O/U: 46.5
TT: 27.5

Allen entered the season with 9.8 targets per game over the past three years, and he has leveled up this year in six games with 64 targets, which he has leveraged into 46-574-4 receiving (and to which he has added six yards rushing and a 49-yard TD pass).

And Allen’s stat line could be even better: QB Justin Herbert has missed Allen on three potential TDs over the past two weeks.

Allen has a great matchup in the slot against CB Kyler Gordon, who has allowed an 81.6% catch rate and 10.0 yards per target since entering the league last year (per PFF).

Mike Evans (Buccaneers) at Bills

Buccaneers: +8.5
O/U: 42.5
TT: 17

With 30-468-4 receiving in six games, Evans is on pace for his 10th consecutive 1,000-yard receiving season. He has eight-plus targets in every game this year but one.

The Bills are without No. 1 CB Tre'Davious White (Achilles, IR), and they underwhelmed against the one big-bodied No. 1 WR they’ve faced this year in Davante Adams (6-84-1, eight targets).

Zay Flowers (Ravens) at Cardinals

Ravens: -8.5
O/U: 44
TT: 26.25

Despite the return in Week 5 of WRs Odell Beckham and Rashod Bateman, Flowers has still easily been the No. 1 WR on the Ravens with a 90% route rate, 23% target rate, and 25% target share.

For the year, Flowers has a respectable 454 yards and a TD on 54 targets, 39 receptions, and six carries — and with that kind of production, he should soon find the endzone with increasing regularity.

Since Flowers moves across the formation, he operates in the slot more than Beckham and Bateman and could have a soft matchup in the interior, as the Cardinals could be without their primary and backup slot defenders — FS Jalen Thompson (hamstring) and CB Antonio Hamilton (groin) — neither of whom practiced nor played last week.

The Cardinals are No. 30 in defensive dropback EPA (0.182).

D.J. Moore (Bears) at Chargers

Bears: +8.5
O/U: 46.5
TT: 19

Moore didn’t start the season strong (2-25-0 receiving on two targets in Week 1), but since Week 2, he has 38-611-5 receiving on 49 targets in six games. Last week, he had a respectable eight receptions (albeit 54 yards) on nine targets with Bagent.

And it’s not as if this recent production is a fluke: Despite dealing with subpar QB play, he was productive (5,201 yards receiving, 335 yards rushing) and efficient (8.4 yards per target, 8.6 yards per carry) with the Panthers for the first half-decade of his career before joining the Bears this offseason.

The Chargers are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (37.6 FPPG).

Christian Kirk (Jaguars) at Steelers

Jaguars: -2.5
O/U: 42
TT: 22.25

I’m skeptical that WR Zay Jones (knee) will play this week, given that he neither practiced nor played in Weeks 6-7 and is dealing with an aggravation (incurred in Week 5) of the injury that forced him from Week 2 and sidelined him for Weeks 3-4.

In his six games with a partial or absent Jones, Kirk has seized the opportunity to challenge and overtake Calvin Ridley for the No. 1 WR role. Since Week 2, Kirk (91% route rate, 22% target rate, 26% target share) has played ahead of Ridley (89%, 16%, 18%), which he has leveraged into 38-465-3 receiving on 52 targets.

The Steelers are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (35.5 FPPG).

Jordan Addison (Vikings) at Packers

Vikings: Pick’Em
O/U: 43
TT: 21.5

Since Week 5 — when No. 1 WR Justin Jefferson (hamstring, IR) exited the game early with an injury — Addison has 16-215-4 receiving on 24 targets, and aside from a game-scripted one-target Week 4 stinker, he has looked like a competent and consistent pass catcher with five-plus targets and either 50 yards or a TD in each game.

Addison looks like the WR we saw in college.

The Packers could be without No. 1 CB Jaire Alexander (back), who missed last week after aggravating the injury that caused him to sit out Weeks 3-4.

Amari Cooper (Browns) at Seahawks

Browns: +3
O/U: 40
TT: 18.5

The Browns might be without QB Deshaun Watson (shoulder), who exited Week 7 with a head injury and perhaps aggravated the rotator cuff injury that sidelined him for Weeks 4-6, as he now has a day-to-day health status (per Ian Rapoport).

Even so, Cooper has eight targets in each of the past two weeks while playing primarily with backup QB P.J. Walker, and even though his production (6-130-0 receiving) has been mediocre, it’s encouraging that his usage has remained strong.

With Nos. 1-2 RBs Nick Chubb (knee, IR) and Jerome Ford (ankle) both injured, the team might lean a little more into the passing game — especially as road underdogs — and the Seahawks are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (33.2 FPPG).

Drake London (Falcons) at Titans

Falcons: -2.5
O/U: 36
TT: 19.25

London had fewer receptions (zero) than QB Desmond Ridder in Week 1 (one), but in the six games since, he has a tolerable 32-383-2 receiving on a viable 49 targets. He was also respectable last year as a rookie with 72-866-4 receiving on 117 targets, finishing the season as the No. 14 WR with 2.07 yards per route.

The Titans are No. 29 in defensive dropback SR (50.2%) and could be significantly worse this week against the deep pass without two-time first-team All-Pro FS Kevin Byard, whom the team just traded to the Eagles.

Garrett Wilson (Jets) at Giants

Jets: -3
O/U: 36.5
TT: 19.75

Wilson’s raw numbers through six games might not impress (32-369-2 receiving, 55 targets), but his utilization within the Jets offense is elite (97% route rate, 25% target rate, 32% target share, 45% air share, 57% of endzone targets, and league-high 57% of redzone targets).

The Giants could be without CB Adoree’ Jackson (neck), who missed last week.

Michael Thomas (Saints) at Colts

Saints: +1
O/U: 43.5
TT: 21.25

I’m the sicko who looks at Thomas and always thinks, “He’s probably still got it.” Just so you’re aware.

This year, he has at least a 75% snap rate in every game but one. Seven-plus targets in every game but one. Either 50 yards or a TD in every game but one. Translation: He has a reasonably elevated and sturdy floor.

The Colts are without CB Dallis Flowers (Achilles, IR) and could be without CB Julius Brents (quad) — their top perimeter cover men.

Rashee Rice (Chiefs) at Broncos

Chiefs: -7.5
O/U: 46.5
TT: 27

Last week, with WR Justin Watson (elbow) sidelined, Rice had a season-high 65% route rate, and throughout his rookie season, he has impressed with his 28% target rate, 9.0 yards per target, 7.5 yards after catch per reception.

I expect the Chiefs to be without Watson again this week, so Rice could see similar usage this week against the Broncos, who are No. 32 in defensive dropback EPA (0.301) and SR (53.5%) and against whom he had 4-72-0 receiving on four targets in Week 6.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 8 TEs

Travis Kelce (Chiefs) at Broncos

Chiefs: -7.5
O/U: 46.5
TT: 27

I don’t know if Taylor Swift will be in attendance this weekend … but Kelce has averaged 108 yards receiving in four Swift games (Weeks 3-4 & 6-7) vs. 46.5 yards in two non-Swift games (Weeks 2 & 5). So I hope we see TS on the TV this weekend. It’s science.

Oct 12, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) celebrates after a play during the second quarter against the Denver Broncos at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports

Since Kelce became “Travis Kelce” with his first 1,000-yard season in 2016, he has put up 94-1,203-6 receiving on 136 targets in 14 games against the Broncos, who are without FS Caden Sterns (knee, IR) and might be without SS Kareem Jackson (suspension).

Darren Waller (Giants) vs. Jets

Giants: +3
O/U: 36.5
TT: 16.75

Waller started the season slowly as he played through a hamstring injury and acclimated to the new offense (15-153-0 receiving, 23 targets in Weeks 1-4), but over the past three games, he has asserted himself as the No. 1 pass catcher in the offense (20-227-1 receiving, 26 targets).

The Jets are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (13.2 FPPG).

Jake Ferguson (Cowboys) vs. Rams

Cowboys: -6.5
O/U: 45.5
TT: 26

Ferguson predictably disappointed in Week 6 (1-15-0 receiving, one target) in a matchup with Chargers SS Derwin James, but he’s in a good bounce-back spot out of the Week 7 bye against the Rams, who lost SS Taylor Rapp and FS Nick Scott this offseason in free agency and are No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (11.2 FPPG).

Before his Week 6 setback, Ferguson averaged 5.6 targets per game in Weeks 1-5, with six targets inside the 10-yard line. That volume makes him viable.

Abbreviations

Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
Against the Spread (ATS)
Over/Under (O/U)
Team Total (TT)
Moneyline (ML)
Return on Investment (ROI)
Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
Expected Points Added (EPA)
Success Rate (SR)
Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
Average Depth of Target (aDOT)

Matthew Freedman