It’s Super Wild Card Weekend.

Does the world need a “Freedman’s Favorites”?

No.

But does the world WANT a “Freedman’s Favorites”?

Also no.

But that was also the case for Week 18, and I wrote one then, so I might as well keep the streak going given how close I am to the end.

That said … it’s the postseason, so I don’t see the need (and I definitely don’t have the desire) to go full Freedman in this piece.

As the saying goes, you never go full Freedman (in the postseason).

So, instead of highlighting the customary 25 players, I’ll shoot for somewhere between zero and 24.

That range feels right.

Freedman’s Favorites for Super Wild Card Weekend

Here are my preliminary Wild Card favorites. These are the guys who (in some combination) …

  • Might be high in my fantasy rankings relative to the industry consensus.
  • Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
  • Must be added if they are on waivers.
  • Possess underappreciated upside.
  • Have advantageous matchups.
  • Appear in my DFS player pool.
  • Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
  • Are on teams with player-friendly betting odds.
  • Catch my eye with their player projections.
  • Stand out in our player prop tool.

Some notes.

  • Updates: After I submit this piece (on Tuesday afternoon), I won’t make any updates here. Rather, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my rankings and my projections, which I will periodically update throughout the week.
     
  • Scoring & Ordering: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players are ordered within position roughly (but probably not precisely) according to my rankings as of writing.
     
  • Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use. (I don’t want to clutter up the intro by listing them all here.)
     
  • Sports Betting Data: Odds are as of 12 pm ET on Tuesday, Jan. 9, and based on the official Unabated Lines (the best representation of a market-making sportsbook consensus).

Freedman’s Favorite Wild Card QBs

Dak Prescott (Cowboys) vs. Packers

  • Cowboys: -7.5
  • O/U: 51
  • TT: 29.25 (No. 1)

Prescott won’t win MVP, but he had an MVP-caliber season in helping the Cowboys win the NFC East and secure the No. 2 seed with their third straight 12-win season.

In the 12 games since his embarrassing three-INT performance against the 49ers in a 42-10 road loss in Week 5, Prescott has passed for 3,455 yards and 31 TDs with just five INTs and added 43-197-2 rushing. 

Prescott has disappointed in the postseason in the past, going 1-5 ATS (-67.5% ROI, per Action Network). But half of that sample was with former HC Jason Garrett, and this Cowboys offense might be the best the team has fielded in the Prescott era. I’m not putting too much stock into Prescott’s past playoff performances.

Prescott

Dec 30, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) reacts after throwing a touchdown pass during the first half against the Detroit Lions at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

What seems more relevant is how he has generally done as a big favorite — and he has crushed in this spot. As a favorite of at least seven points, Prescott is 14-7-1 ATS (28.3% ROI) at AT&T Stadium. 

In a multi-layered playoff #RevengeGame for HC Mike McCarthy, it’s not hard to imagine the Cowboys having success through the air against the Packers, who are No. 28 in defensive dropback SR (48.0%, per RBs Don’t Matter).

As I noted in our Monday Betting Life Newsletter, the over is 31-17 (27.9% ROI) in indoor postseason games since 2003, and at home this year, Prescott has 308.8 yards and 2.8 TDs passing to just 0.4 INTs per game, and the Cowboys are 8-0 ML (28.7% ROI) and 6-2 ATS (42.9% ROI) and have averaged 37.4 points.

We should see widespread offensive output in this spot, starting with Prescott.

Matthew Stafford (Rams) at Lions

  • Rams: +3.5
  • O/U: 51.5
  • TT: 24 (No. 3)

“How all occasions do inform against me and spur my dull revenge! Oh, from this time forth, my thoughts be bloody or be nothing worth!”

This isn’t the best of travel spots for the Rams, who go East three time zones for their third consecutive game away, but Stafford is hardly a visitor at Ford Field, where he played 83 games with the 2009-20 Lions.

And now the prodigal son returns home — to torch a defense that’s No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (19.4 FPPG).

Inactive last week, Stafford should be fresh off the Week 18 pseudo bye, and since the return of No. 1 RB Kyren Williams in Week 12 revitalized the Rams running game, Stafford has 1,705 yards and 15 TDs passing to just three INTs in six games, all of which have seen the Rams score 26-plus points.

Playing indoors, the Rams are likely to go off, and I have a bet on them at +3.5 in our 100% FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker.

Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers) vs. Eagles

  • Buccaneers: +3 
  • O/U: 44
  • TT: 20.5 (No. 10)

Mayfield (ribs) didn’t look good last week as he gutted his way through a torso injury that limited him in practice and seemed to impact him during the game (137 yards passing, 4.3 AY/A) — but in the four games prior, he was great (1,117 yards and 10 TDs passing, two INTs, 9.8 AY/A). He’s had a solid campaign overall (4,044 yards and 28 TDs passing, 10 INTs, 7.3 AY/A) that has earned him some Comeback Player of the Year consideration.

Another week removed from the injury —and with an extra day to recover before MNF — Mayfield could play considerably better against the Eagles than last week.

It helps that he’s facing the Eagles, who are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (20.6).

Granted, in Week 3, Mayfield had one of his worst performances of the season against the Eagles (146 yards and one TD passing, one INT). Still, he has improved since then — and the Eagles' defense has gotten notably worse, especially since the team promoted senior assistant Matt Patricia to defensive play-caller in Week 15.

The Buccaneers are 11-6 ATS (23.7% ROI), and I like them in the betting market:

Freedman’s Favorite Wild Card RBs

Rachaad White (Buccaneers) vs. Eagles

  • Buccaneers: +3 
  • O/U: 44
  • TT: 20.5 (No. 10)

I’ve highlighted White twice in this article, and in those games, he combined for 199 yards and a TD on 39 carries and nine targets. Not too shabby.

The bad news is that both those games were against the Panthers (0.024 rush EPA, No. 32), who are most definitely not in the playoffs.

The good news is that the Eagles are almost as bad, ranking No. 30 in defensive rush EPA for the season (-0.015) and allowing 549 yards and seven TDs to RBs over the past four games.

I entered the season as a White skeptic, and I’m still not enamored with atrocious career rushing efficiency (3.7 yards per carry), but he’s a good receiver (6.6 yards per target for career), and he’s the clear lead back in his offense.

He’s had fewer than 15 opportunities just once this season. And since the Week 5 bye, he has 1,247 yards and eight TDs on 209 carries and 57 targets in 13 games. Volume is king.

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Isiah Pacheco (Chiefs) vs. Dolphins

  • Chiefs: -4
  • O/U: 44
  • TT: 24 (No. 3)

The last time I wrote up Pacheco was when the Chiefs played the Dolphins in Germany. Time is a flat circle.

Pacheco (quad, shoulder) is dealing with injuries, but he should be healthy-ish after sitting out a meaningless Week 18 game he could’ve played in if it had mattered.

Additionally, No. 2 RB Jerick McKinnon (groin, IR) is out, and in Pacheco’s four games this year without McKinnon, he has 403 yards and five TDs on 62 carries and 20 targets.

The Dolphins could be especially vulnerable in run defense without EDGEs Jaelan Phillips (Achilles, IR), Bradley Chubb (knee, IR), Andrew Van Ginkel (foot), and Cameron Goode and LB Jerome Baker (wrist).

De’Von Achane (Dolphins) at Chiefs

  • Dolphins: +4
  • O/U: 44
  • TT: 20 (No. 11)

Given the weather forecast for Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium — near zero degrees with wind approaching double digits — the Dolphins could lean on their running game more than they usually do.

And that would likely benefit Achane, who has 465 yards and four TDs on 64 carries, 25 targets, a 51% snap rate, and a 55% route rate in six games since returning in Week 13 from a knee injury (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).

Achane

Jan 7, 2024; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins running back De'Von Achane (28) runs with the football for a touchdown against the Buffalo Bills during the second quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

And in his nine games with a snap rate of at least 35%, Achane has looked like the second coming of Chris Johnson with 983 yards and 11 TDs on 101 carries and 35 targets. His talent is unreal.

No. 1 RB Raheem Mostert (knee, ankle) is uncertain to play after missing the past two games, and in his absence, Achane has functioned as the lead back for the Dolphins with 198 yards and two TDs on 30 opportunities and a 54% snap rate since Week 17.

The Chiefs are No. 28 in defensive rush EPA (-0.034).

Aaron Jones (Packers) at Cowboys

  • Packers: +7.5 
  • O/U: 51
  • TT: 21.75 (No. 8)

Jones has been hampered by various ailments throughout the season, but since returning in Week 15 from a knee injury, he has a ballerlicious 475 yards on 76 carries and 13 targets. No, he hasn’t scored in that stretch — but with that kind of workload and production, he’ll eventually find the endzone.

He was especially strong in the season finale (141 yards, 27 opportunities) without No. 2 RB A.J. Dillon (thumb, neck), who could sit out another game given that he didn’t practice last week and was ruled out before the weekend. 

If Dillon is out again, Jones will have an excellent chance to replicate last week’s usage against the Cowboys, who are No. 32 in defensive rush SR (44.0%).

James Cook (Bills) vs. Steelers

  • Bills: -10
  • O/U: 36.5
  • TT: 23.25 (No. 7)

Cook has disappointed with a scoreless 166 yards over the past three games, and he’s yet to have a snap rate above 75% in any game this year. However, his usage is good enough (13.9 carries, 3.2 targets per game), and his efficiency is desirable (4.7 yards per carry, 8.2 yards per target).

In only one game this year has he had fewer than 10 opportunities.

And since Week 11, when the team dismissed OC Ken Dorsey and promoted QBs coach Joe Brady to play-caller, Cook has 730 yards and four TDs on 117 carries and 26 targets in seven games.

In Cook’s eight home games this year — all of them as a favorite — he has 867 yards and four TDs. He could see a significant workload this week as a double-digit home favorite, especially since the forecast calls for a high temperature of 24 degrees and wind of 28 mph with an 85% chance of snow.

The Steelers' run defense will likely be diminished without EDGE TJ Watt (knee), who’s unlikely to play.

David Montgomery (Lions) vs. Rams

  • Lions: -3.5
  • O/U: 51.5
  • TT: 27.5 (No. 2)

Excluding Week 6, which he exited early after just 18 snaps, Montgomery has scored 13 TDs in 13 games — and he was stopped down at the one-yard line four times this year without scoring on the drive. His 13 TDs are nothing to sneeze at, but Montgomery could’ve had a much bigger season with a little more luck.

And he added 1,099 yards on 213 carries and 23 targets in his 12 full games. That works.

Despite splitting work with rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Montgomery has had 10-plus opportunities in every game outside of Week 6, and even with his three missed games, he’s tied with Christian McCaffrey at No. 4 with 17 carries inside the five-yard line. 

As a home favorite in an indoor game with a slate-high total, Montgomery has a decent chance of scoring a TD.

Freedman’s Favorite Wild Card WRs

Tyreek Hill (Dolphins) at Chiefs

  • Dolphins: +4
  • O/U: 44
  • TT: 20 (No. 11)

With a forecast temperature of zero degrees, Hill will have a cold dish to serve in this #RevengeGame against the Chiefs.

Although they managed to contain him in their Week 9 Germany matchup (8-62-0 receiving, 10 targets), Hill seems likelier than not to put up numbers this week against the Chiefs, given that No. 1 CB L'Jarius Sneed (calf) is dealing with an injury.

On top of that, No. 2 WR Jaylen Waddle (ankle) is far from certain to suit up after missing the past two weeks, and in his three Waddle-less games this year, Hill has 22-315-2 receiving on 36 targets. 

With an NFL-high 1,799 yards and 13 TDs receiving on 171 targets in 16 games, Hill is the No. 1 fantasy WR (19.8) and is No. 1 with an 80.2% WOPR.

CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys) at Commanders

  • Cowboys: -7.5
  • O/U: 51
  • TT: 29.25 (No. 1)

Lamb has a league-high 135 receptions and is No. 2 — behind only RB Christian McCaffrey — with 1,862 yards from scrimmage. With four straight seasons of 1,000-plus scrimmage yards to open his career, Lamb is on a Hall-of-Fame trajectory.

He has been especially hot after the team’s devastating Week 5 loss to the 49ers, putting up 108-1,391-11 receiving on 146 targets and 11-92-2 rushing with a two-point conversion in 12 games.

Lamb is the No. 1 red-zone receiver in the league, with 31 targets inside the 20-yard line and 17 targets inside the 10.

At home this year, Lamb has 73-955-8 receiving on 100 targets and 7-73-1 rushing in eight games.

He could go off against a Packers secondary missing CB Eric Stokes (hamstring, IR) and FS Rudy Ford (hamstring, IR).

Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions) vs. Rams

  • Lions: -3.5
  • O/U: 51.5
  • TT: 27.5 (No. 2)

QB Jared Goff doesn’t typically need an excuse to give extra attention to St. Brown, who has 164 targets in 16 games this year — but he’ll have one this week, as the Lions could be without No. 2 WR Jameson Williams (ankle, illness), No. 4 WR Kalif Raymond (knee), and Nos. 1-2 TEs Sam LaPorta (knee) and Brock Wright (hip).

Last week — when these four pass catchers were out for part or all of the game and St. Brown played less than his usual allotment of snaps to avoid injury — he still had 7-144-1 receiving on 10 targets, which feels like his volume floor given the circumstances. St. Brown enters the playoffs on a heater.

For the year, St. Brown has an elite 1,539 yards and 10 TD receiving, and I like his matchup against safety-turned-slot CB Quentin Lake, who has allowed a 72.0% catch rate for his career (per PFF). 

Puka Nacua (Rams) at Lions

  • Rams: +3.5
  • O/U: 51.5
  • TT: 24 (No. 3)

Nacua heads into the postseason with 105 receptions and 1,486 yards receiving — both of which are NFL rookie records — and in his 16 full games (he rested most of Week 18), he saw an absurd 154 targets, to which he added 12-89-0 rushing.

In his seven games with QB Matthew Stafford following the Week 10 bye (when Stafford returned from injury), Nacua has 703 yards and three TDs on 58 targets and 10 carries.

Lining up mostly wide to the right, Nacua will likely run about half his routes against practice squad journeyman-turned-starting CB Kindle Vildor, who has allowed 10.0 yards per target for his career since entering the league in 2020 and 13.4 yards per target since joining the Lions in Week 14.

Mike Evans (Buccaneers) vs. Eagles

  • Buccaneers: +3 
  • O/U: 44
  • TT: 20.5 (No. 10)

Only three guys this year had at least 1,200 yards and 12 TDs receiving: The aforementioned Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb — and Evans.

With just 92 scoreless yards over the past two weeks, Evans is primed for positive regression — and he has the matchup for it against the Eagles, who are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (36.7).

Evans

Dec 24, 2023; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans (13) celebrates the touchdown against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the second quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Reper-USA TODAY Sports

On top of that, No. 1 CB Darius Slay (knee) last played in Week 14 and isn’t guaranteed to suit up for MNF, especially after not practicing on Friday last week.

With 9.2 yards per target this year, Evans is still as explosive as ever.

Amari Cooper (Browns) at Texans

  • Browns: -2.5
  • O/U: 44.5
  • TT: 23.5 (No. 5)

The last time I highlighted Cooper in this piece — and the last time he played — was Week 16, when he eviscerated the Texans with 11-265-2 receiving on 15 targets with a two-point conversion.

Since then, Cooper (heel) has been out with an injury, although he probably could’ve played in Week 18 if the game had meant anything. With the extra time off, Cooper should be fresh.

He exited Week 13 early with a concussion and ribs injury, but Cooper returned to action in Week 14, and in his three games since with QB Joe Flacco, he has a 92% route rate, 29% target share, and 28% target rate, which he has leveraged into 22-451-3 receiving on 37 targets.

Since joining the Browns last year, Cooper has 9.3 yards per target in HC Kevin Stefanski’s offense despite dealing with inconsistent and mediocre QB play. He’s still one of the league’s best WRs, and he could see a little extra work this week with WRs Cedric Tillman (concussion) and Marquise Goodwin (knee) uncertain to play.

Given that the Texans play sides in their defensive backfield, Cooper is likely to match up most with CB Steven Nelson, who has allowed 9.6 yards per target this year.

Nico Collins (Texans) vs. Browns

  • Texans: +2.5
  • O/U: 44.5
  • TT: 21 (No. 9)

This is a terrible matchup for Collins against the Browns, who are No. 1 in defensive dropback EPA (-0.188) and SR (36.3%), but Collins has several items in his favor.

First, he’s playing indoors and at home.

Second, the Texans might need to pass more than they usually do as underdogs.

Third, No. 1 CB Denzel Ward, who used to shadow in previous seasons, has played almost exclusively on the left side this season, where Collins has run just 34.4% of his routes under OC Bobby Slowik. For most of the game, Collins should be able to avoid Ward’s coverage.

Fourth, he should dominate usage as the No. 1 WR. In the four games in which he has been fully active and WR Tank Dell (leg, IR) has been out or limited, Collins has 29-546-2 receiving on 35 targets and 1-7-0 rushing. On top of that, WRs Noah Brown (hip) and Robert Woods (hip) both missed Week 18, and Collins had 9-195-1 receiving on nine targets without them. Given that neither Brown nor Woods even practiced last week, they could be out once again.

Cooper Kupp (Rams) at Lions

  • Rams: +3.5
  • O/U: 51.5
  • TT: 24 (No. 3)

Kupp should be fresh after resting in the meaningless Week 18 game, and over his past six games, he’s had strong usage — 100% route rate, 21% target rate, 24% target share — even if the production has been middling (35-362-4 receiving, 49 targets).

But Kupp’s numbers would look better if he had pulled in two just-out-of-reach TDs in Week 16, and over the past six games, he’s had eight targets inside the 10-yard line. He’s still capable of a big performance.

He could have one this week against the Lions, who are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (33.2). As good as slot CB Brian Branch has been (76.0 PFF coverage grade), he’s still a rookie making his first playoff start, and he’s yet to face an NFL slot receiver of Kupp’s talent.

Jayden Reed (Packers) at Cowboys

  • Packers: +7.5 
  • O/U: 51
  • TT: 21.75 (No. 8)

No. 1 WR Christian Watson (hamstring) last played in Week 13, and he seemed to suffer a setback last week after practicing limitedly on Wednesday and Thursday but not at all on Friday.

Watson could miss yet another game, and in his absence (Weeks 1-3 & 14-18), Reed has 464 yards and six TDs on 50 targets and five carries in seven games, and that’s despite missing Week 16 and being limited since Week 12 with chest, toe, and ankle injuries.

For the season, Reed has 912 scrimmage yards and 10 TDs, and since the Week 6 bye, he has 704 yards and eight TDs on 67 targets and 10 carries in 11 games. Even as a rookie, Reed gives off lowkey prime 2014 Randall Cobb vibes.

Playing mainly in the slot, Reed should match up for most of the game with CB Jourdan Lewis, who has a career-worst 43.0 PFF coverage grade this year and is the clear weak link in an otherwise strong Cowboys secondary.

Freedman’s Favorite Wild Card TEs

David Njoku (Browns) at Texans

  • Browns: -2.5
  • O/U: 44.5
  • TT: 23.5 (No. 5)

Like teammate Amari Cooper, Njoku last appeared in this piece in Week 16, when he played the Texans. With 6-44-1 receiving on nine targets, he didn’t light the world on fire, but he also didn’t disappoint.

Njoku hasn’t fully lived up to the first-round draft capital the Browns invested in him in 2017, but he has exhibited plenty of explosiveness (7.7 yards per target) since HC Kevin Stefanski joined the team in 2020.

And in his five games with QB Joe Flacco, Njoku has 30-390-4 receiving on 45 targets.

Njoku should be rested after sitting out the meaningless Week 18 game, and he could see more targets this week with WRs Cedric Tillman (concussion) and Marquise Goodwin (knee) uncertain to play.

The Texans could be vulnerable in TE defense without SS Jimmie Ward (quad, IR) FS Eric Murray (knee, IR), and FS/slot CB M.J. Stewart (shoulder, IR).

Dallas Goedert (Eagles) at Buccaneers

  • Eagles: -3 
  • O/U: 44
  • TT: 23.5 (No. 5)

Goedert missed Weeks 11-13 with a forearm injury, and he sat out most of last week to avoid injury, but he has a solid 28 targets in his four games since returning in Week 14, which he has leveraged into a liveable 20-178-1 receiving.

And he could have more volume this week with WRs A.J. Brown (knee) and DeVonta Smith (ankle) dealing with injuries.

The Buccaneers are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (11.0).

Abbreviations

  • Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
  • Against the Spread (ATS)
  • Over/Under (O/U)
  • Team Total (TT)
  • Moneyline (ML)
  • Return on Investment (ROI)
  • Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
  • Expected Points Added (EPA)
  • Success Rate (SR)
  • Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
  • Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
  • AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
  • Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
  • Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
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