Freedman's Favorites. The Best Week 2 Fantasy Football Plays.

In the immortal words of Patriots HC Bill Belichick, “We’re on to Cincinnati.”

What happened in Week 1 doesn’t matter. It’s history. Ancient. Like that girl with pigtails who had no interest in you in first grade.

FORGET ABOUT HER.

We’re on to Cincinnati.

Forget that I once lost a spelling bee because I couldn’t spell the word “Cincinnati.”

DOESN’T MATTER.

We’re on to Cincinnati.

The past is paramount only to the extent that it creates the context for the present and the future — but we still chart our course. Navigators. Explorers. Adventurers on the open sea of opportunity.

We choose where we go.

And let me tell you where we’re going.

I’ll even spell it out for you.

S-I-N-S-I-N-A-D-D-E-E

We’re on to Cincinnati. 

Whether you won or lost in Week 1, all that matters now is Week 2.

Freedman’s Favorites for Week 2

Here are my Week 2 favorites. These are the guys who (in some combination):

• Might be high in my fantasy rankings relative to the industry consensus.
• Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
• Must be added if they are on waivers.
• Possess underappreciated upside.
• Have advantageous matchups.
• Appear in my DFS player pool.
• Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
• Are on teams with player-friendly betting odds.
• Catch my eye with their player projections.
• Stand out in our player prop tool.

Some notes:

Updates: After I submit this piece (usually on Wednesday morning but sometimes earlier), I won’t make any updates here. Instead, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my rankings and my projections, which I will periodically update throughout the week.

Scoring & Ordering: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players are ordered within position roughly (but probably not precisely) according to my rankings as of writing.

Abbreviations: Check the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use. (I don’t want to clutter up the intro by listing them all here.)

Sports Betting Data: Odds are as of 9 a.m. ET on Tuesday, Sep. 12, and based on the official Unabated Lines (the best representation of a market-making sportsbook consensus).

Freedman’s Favorite Week 2 QBs

Josh Allen (Bills) vs. Raiders

• Bills: -9
• O/U: 47
• Team Total: 28

Allen was abominable in Week 1 (three INTs, two fumbles, one lost fumble, 3.0 AY/A), but he has been the No. 1 QB in FFPG (28.1) and No. 3 in composite EPA + CPOE (0.148, per RBs Don’t Matter) since 2020, when the team gifted him No. 1 wide receiver Stefon Diggs.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) throws against the New York Jets during the first half of the home opener at MetLife Stadium on Monday, Sept. 11, 2023, in East Rutherford.

With 3,087 yards and 38 TDs rushing across his five-year career, he has an elite week-to-week fantasy floor and was a QB1 last year in all but two games (per RotoViz). Last year, he was the No. 1 QB with 50% of his team’s carries inside the five-yard line.

He’s operating with a one-day rest disadvantage coming off Monday Night Football, but the Bills have a slate-high team total (28 points), and the Raiders last year were No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (16.7 FPPG).

Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) at Jaguars

• Chiefs: -3
• O/U: 51
• Team Total: 27

I feel this needs to be said: Without TE Travis Kelce, and while being betrayed by the pass-catching incompetence of his WRs, Mahomes still looked good in Week 1, especially buying time in the pocket and scrambling for chunk plays (6-45-0 rushing).

Kelce (knee) seems to have an excellent chance to return to action in Week 2, and even if he doesn’t, at least the team now has three extra days coming off Thursday Night Football to game plan without him.

Since his first year as a starter (2018), Mahomes is No. 1 in FPPG (26.9), AY/A (8.7), and composite EPA + CPOE (0.175). Last year he led the league with 5,250 yards and 41 TDs passing — not to mention 123 redzone pass attempts — and he has lowkey high-floor rushing ability (20-plus rushing yards per game in each of the past three years).

In 2022, the Chiefs were No. 1 in the league in dropback over expectation (9.04%), and the Jaguars were No. 29 last year in defensive pass DVOA (17.8%, per FTN).

I have a bet on the Chiefs -2.5 (DraftKings) in our 100% FREE bet tracker, where you can find all the bets I plan to make for Week 2.

You can tail the Chiefs -2.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook, PLUS get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when you sign up below!

Justin Herbert (Chargers) vs. Titans

• Chargers: -3.5
• O/U: 45.5
• Team Total: 24.5

Herbert, in 2020, had maybe the best passing campaign ever for a first-year QB (4,336 yards, 31 TDs) on his way to winning Offensive Rookie of the Year, and then in 2021-22, he was No. 2 with 5,104 yards passing.

With the return of Pro Bowl LT Rashawn Slater (out most of 2022 with a biceps injury) and additions of proven OC Kellen Moore and first-round WR Quentin Johnston, the Chargers offense could have their most explosive offense under Herbert, who had a solid 20.9 fantasy points in Week 1.

Last year, the Titans were No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (16.6 FPPG) and are without CB Caleb Farley (back, PUP). 

Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) vs. Chiefs

• Jaguars: +3
• O/U: 51
• Team Total: 24

Lawrence struggled as a rookie (NFL-high 17 INTs) under then-HC Urban Meyer, but he played significantly better in 2022 with new HC Doug Pederson (66.3% completion rate, 4,113 yards passing).

He especially stepped up after the Week 11 bye, leading the team to the AFC South title with a 6-1 record to close the season due to his improved play (8.2 AY/A, 4.5 yards per carry).

As a home underdog, Lawrence could have a pass-leaning game script against the Chiefs, who last year were No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (16.4 FPPG), and let Lions QB Jared Goff have an efficient game-winning performance (7.8 AY/A) in Week 1.

Last week, Lawrence completed 75% of his passes with a 7.4 AY/A.

Brock Purdy (49ers) at Rams

• 49ers: -8
• O/U: 45
• Team Total: 26.5

In his seven full games last year — from Week 14 to the Divisional Round — Purdy went 7-0 as a starter and operated the offense with Jimmy Garoppolo-like efficiency, ranking No. 1 in EPA + CPOE (0.161).

Applied to the regular season, Purdy’s seven-game mark would’ve been No. 2, behind only Mahomes (0.178).

The Rams have the No. 32 secondary in our unit rankings, and 49ers HC Kyle Shanahan has dominated Rams HC Sean McVay in their head-to-head matchups, going 10-3 ATS (46.5% ROI) and 9-4 ML (46.1% ROI) against his former assistant (per Action Network).

In Week 1, Purdy picked up where he left off last year with 220-2-0 passing on a 65.5% completion rate with 9.0 AY/A and 3-20-0 rushing.

Jordan Love (Packers) at Falcons

• Packers: -1.5
• O/U: 40.5
• Team Total: 21

Love has just two NFL starts to his name, but he flashed real upside last season (66.7% completion rate, 10.2 AY/A), and he dominated to start the 2023 campaign (245 yards and three TDs passing, 11.3 AY/A).

Last year, the Falcons were No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA (23.5%) and will likely be without CB Jeff Okudah (ankle), who neither practiced nor played last week.

For more injury analysis, check out my Week 2 Injury Report.

Mac Jones (Patriots) vs. Dolphins

• Patriots: +2
• O/U: 47.5
• Team Total: 22.75

Jones played well in his Pro Bowl rookie campaign (67.6% completion rate, 7.0 AY/A), but he was circumstantially poor last year under disgraceful “OC” Matt Patricia.

In Week 1 — with new and competent OC Bill O’Brien — he had 316 yards and three TDs passing on a league-high 54 attempts.

The Dolphins last year were No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (17.2 FPPG), and last week, they allowed 34 points and 433 total offensive yards to the Chargers.

Perhaps most importantly, they are without No. 1 CB Jalen Ramsey (knee, IR).

Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers) vs. Bears

• Buccaneers: -3
• O/U: 41.5
• Team Total: 22.25

Mayfield wasn’t great last week (173 yards, two TDs passing), but he helped the Buccaneers get a win they had no business getting and correctly funneled 50% of his passes to the elite pass-catching duo of WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, who can elevate a QB’s ceiling in any given contest.

The Bears in Week 1 made Love look like the next Aaron Rodgers, and they were No. 32 in defensive dropback EPA (0.212) last season.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 2 RBs

Derrick Henry (Titans) vs. Chargers

• Titans: +3.5
• O/U: 45.5
• Team Total: 21

Henry ceded seven opportunities (three carries, four targets) to rookie RB Tyjae Spears in Week 1, but he still put up 119 yards on 15 carries and three targets.

Since his earth-shaking Week 14 breakout in 2018, he has averaged 127.3 yards and 1.1 TDs on 22.5 carries and 2.0 targets across 60 games.

Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry (22) warms up as the team gets ready to face the New England Patriots at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn., Friday, Aug. 25, 2023.

Last year, Henry led the league with 35 broken tackles forced, and he was No. 2 with 75% of his team’s carries inside the 20-yard line.

The Chargers were No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (20.5 FPPG) last season, and Henry had 21-104-1 rushing and 4-59-0 receiving on four targets against HC Brandon Staley’s defense in Week 15.

Saquon Barkley (Giants) at Cardinals

• Giants: -4
• O/U: 39.5
• Team Total: 21.75

Barkley was circumstantially terrible in Week 1 (63 scoreless yards on 12 carries and four targets), but he still had all but six of the team’s backfield opportunities in a brutal 40-0 loss.

Last year, he had a position-high 856 snaps (despite sitting out Week 18), and he returned to form as the engine of the Giants offense with a triumphant 1,650 yards and 10 TDs from scrimmage.

In my opinion, the Cardinals are the stone-cold worst team in the league (they have a league-low in-season win total of 3.5 at DraftKings), so Barkley should see heavy usage in a bounce-back spot.

Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs. Packers

• Falcons: +1.5
• O/U: 40.5
• Team Total: 19.5

Robinson played behind second-year RB Tyler Allgeier in Week 1, who out-touched (18 vs. 16) and outproduced (94 yards, two TDs vs. 83 yards, one TD) the 21-year-old five-star All-American Doak Walker Award-winning No. 8 overall rookie. That said, it’s not as if Robinson played poorly or 17.3 fantasy points is anything to sniff at.

And he at least saw 100% of the team’s short down-and-distance snaps last week.

The Packers in 2022 were No. 31 in defensive rush DVOA (10.1%), and not much has changed in their defense from last year to this year.

Ken Walker (Seahawks) at Lions

• Seahawks: +6
• O/U: 48.5
• Team Total: 21.25

Walker did little last week (67 yards on 12 carries and five targets) in a 30-13 loss, but he still functioned as the clear lead back in the offense (all but six backfield opportunities), and he had 1,215 yards and nine TDs from scrimmage as well as 100% of the carries inside the five-yard line in the games he played last year.

That said, I’ll be monitoring the Seahawks injury report throughout the week, as both LT Charles Cross (toe) and RT Abraham Lucas (knee) left the game early on Sunday and did not return.

What I like most about Walker this week is the matchup: Last year, the Lions were No. 29 in defensive rush SR (44.8%).

Najee Harris (Steelers) vs. Browns

• Steelers: +2.5
• O/U: 40
• Team Total: 18.75

Harris last week had just 33 yards on six carries and two targets. Gross, I know. But he still has back-to-back seasons with 1,200-plus yards and double-digit TDs from scrimmage, and the Steelers are unlikely to score only seven points this week.

Last year, the Browns were No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (21.3 FPPG), and Harris has 92-415-4 rushing and 10-62-0 receiving on 10 targets in his four career performances against the division rival Browns.

It didn’t work out last week, but this is the classic spot to back the Steelers, who are 73-62-4 ATS (5.9% ROI) at home, 53-31-4 ATS (22.7% ROI) as an underdog, and 15-5-3 ATS (40.1% ROI) as a home underdog under HC Mike Tomlin.

A.J. Dillon (Packers) at Falcons

• Packers: -1.5
• O/U: 40.5
• Team Total: 21

No. 1 RB Aaron Jones (hamstring) suffered a soft-tissue injury in Week 1, exited early, and didn’t return. Given his age (28 years old) and the presence of Dillon as a strong No. 2 option behind him, I tentatively expect Jones to miss Week 2, which would make Dillon an intriguing three-down candidate.

In Week 1, Dillon did little (36 yards), but he at least had 13 carries and three targets, and in the 2021-22 seasons, he amassed 2,092 yards and 14 touchdowns from scrimmage.

The Falcons were No. 32 last year in defensive rush SR (46.6%) and are a friendly matchup for Dillon, who could see increased playing time even if Jones does suit up for Week 2.

David Montgomery (Lions) vs. Seahawks

• Lions: -6
• O/U: 48.5
• Team Total: 27.25

Montgomery out-touched (21 to nine) and outproduced (74 yards, one TD vs. 60 yards) rookie No. 2 RB Jahmyr Gibbs in Week 1, and the Lions got a 21-20 upset road win over the Super Bowl-defending Chiefs, so I don’t expect them to alter their approach this week.

With 1,000-plus yards and 25-plus receptions in each of his four full NFL seasons (2019-22 Bears), Montgomery has a three-down skill set, even though he saw zero targets last week.

The Seahawks last year were No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (20.3 FPPG), and this offseason, they lost almost the entirety of their interior defensive line with the departures of DTs Poona Ford, Quinton Jefferson, Shelby Harris, and Al Woods.

James Cook (Bills) vs. Raiders

• Bills: -9
• O/U: 47
• Team Total: 28

Cook wasn’t prolific in Week 1 (63 yards), but he had a tough matchup against the Jets and dominated the backfield touches (12 carries, six targets).

It hurts that he’s operating on a one-day rest disadvantage coming off Monday Night Football, but he could see some extended run in the second half as a big home favorite.

The Raiders were No. 30 last year in defensive rush SR (44.8%).

James Conner (Cardinals) vs. Giants

• Cardinals: 4
• O/U: 39.5
• Team Total: 17.75

The Cardinals are so turrible that I’m compelled to spell that word with a “u” — but Conner in Week 1 was at least serviceable with 70 yards on 14 carries and five targets.

Since joining the Cardinals in 2021, Conner has 2,279 yards and 26 TDs in 29 games, and he has the size to grind between the tackles (6-1, 233 lbs) and the pass-catching ability to serve as a three-down player (6.7 yards per target with the Cardinals).

The Giants were No. 32 last year in defensive rush DVOA (10.5%), and they just let Cowboys RB Tony Pollard go off for 21.2 fantasy points in Week 1.

Rachaad White (Buccaneers) vs. Bears

• Buccaneers: -3
• O/U: 41.5
• Team Total: 22.25

I’m a White skeptic on account of his horrid career efficiency (3.6 yards per carry, 5.0 yards per target), but this might be his only game all year as a home favorite, and last week, he had 17 carries and two targets (for just 49 yards, I grant you).

The Bears were No. 28 last year in defensive rush EPA (0.022), and last week, they allowed Packers RB Aaron Jones to go off for 127 yards and two TDs — and he didn’t even play 50% of the snaps because of injury.

I imagine this will be the only time all year White appears in this piece … especially if he continues to underwhelm with his opportunities.

Tyler Allgeier (Falcons) vs. Packers

• Falcons: +1.5
• O/U: 40.5
• Team Total: 19.5

As noted earlier, Allgeier out-touched (18 vs. 16) and outproduced (94 yards, two TDs vs. 83 yards, one TD) Bijan Robinson in Week 1, and with a run-based feast as large as the one the Falcons offense provides, there’s room at the table for two mouths. 

With bulldozing size (5-11 and 224 lbs) and a straight-ahead running style, Allgeier played incredibly well last year as a fifth-round rookie (210-1,035-3 rushing, 16-139-1 receiving on 17 targets), and I expect that he’ll continue to get opportunities this year.

Packers were No. 31 in defensive rush EPA (0.044) and SR (46.6%) last year.

Zack Moss (Colts) at Texans

• Colts: -1
• O/U: 40
• Team Total: 20.5

No. 1 RB Jonathan Taylor (ankle/back, PUP) is out. Week 1 starter Deon Jackson was terrible (28 yards on 13 carries, six targets). Rookie backup Evan Hull (knee) exited Week 1 early and is uncertain for Week 2.

Moss might get double-digit opportunities in Week 2 simply by default.

Moss (forearm) missed Week 1 due to injury. Still, he practiced limitedly all week and received a questionable designation on Friday before ultimately being declared inactive, so he seems on track to suit up for Week 2.

He did well last year in his three end-of-season starts in place of Taylor (265 yards, one TD on 45 carries, four targets), the last of which was against the Texans (121 yards, one TD on 18 carries, three targets), who were No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (25.7 FPPG).

Freedman’s Favorite Week 2 WRs

Calvin Ridley (Jaguars) vs. Chiefs

• Jaguars: +3
• O/U: 51
• Team Total: 24

Ridley missed all of 2022 (suspension) and most of 2021 (mental health break), but in 2020 — while playing on a broken foot — he had 90-1,374-9 receiving on 143 targets in 15 games for the Falcons.

Sep 10, 2023; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Calvin Ridley (0) in the second quarter against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

And then last week, he studded it up with 8-101-1 receiving on 11 targets: Like John Wick, he’s back.

He’s an alpha No. 1 WR with his utilization.

The Chiefs have a three-day advantage for rest and prep, but last year, they were No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (26.1 FPPG).

Stefon Diggs (Bills) vs. Raiders

• Bills: -9
• O/U: 47
• Team Total: 28

Diggs is a top-five WR with 4,189 yards receiving since the Bills acquired him in 2020, and last week, he still managed to show out on Monday Night Football (10-102-1 receiving on 13 targets), even with Allen doing his human impersonation of the Halifax Explosion. 

He’s operating on a one-day rest disadvantage, but I doubt that will matter against the Raiders, who were No. 31 last year in defensive dropback EPA (0.150).

Chris Olave (Saints) at Panthers

• Saints: -3
• O/U: 40
• Team Total: 21.5

Olave flashed last year as a rookie with 1,042 yards receiving and 8.8 yards per target, and then in Week 1, he looked like one of the league’s best pass catchers with 8-112-0 receiving on 10 targets.

Last year, Olave played well with 14-207-1 receiving on 25 targets in two games against the Panthers, who will be without No. 1 CB Jaycee Horn (hamstring). 

Keenan Allen (Chargers) vs. Titans

• Chargers: -3.5
• O/U: 45.5
• Team Total: 24.5

Allen entered the season with 9.8 targets per game over the past three years, and then in Week 1, he had a typical performance with 6-76-0 receiving on nine targets, to which he added 2-6-0 rushing.

With RB Austin Ekeler (ankle) uncertain to play this week, the Chargers might have more of a pass-leaning game plan, and some of Ekeler’s short targets could be reallocated to the slot-heavy Allen.

The Titans last year were No. 28 in defensive dropback EPA (0.114) and pass DVOA (17.2%).

D.K. Metcalf (Seahawks) at Lions

• Seahawks: +6
• O/U: 48.5
• Team Total: 21.25

Metcalf is an alpha beast with Calvin Johnson-like athleticism (4.33-second 40-yard dash at 6-3 and 228 lbs.) and 306-4,218-35 receiving in his first four seasons with the Seahawks.

Even in a 30-13 loss in which QB Geno Smith passed for only 112 yards, Metcalf had a salvageable performance with 3-47-1 receiving on a team-high five targets, and last year he was No. 1 in the league with a 40% redzone target share.

The Lions were No. 30 last year in defensive dropback EPA (0.125).

Brandon Aiyuk (49ers) at Rams

• 49ers: -8
• O/U: 45
• Team Total: 26.5 

Aiyuk came into his own last year with 1,015 yards and eight TDs receiving, and in Week 1, he put up 28.9 fantasy points on 8-129-2 receiving and a team-high eight targets.

The Rams were No. 28 last year in defensive dropback SR (49.3%), and Aiyuk has 11.0 yards per target in five games against DC Raheem Morris’ unit over the past two seasons (including playoffs).

Tee Higgins (Bengals) vs. Ravens

• Bengals: -3.5
• O/U: 46.5
• Team Total: 25 

Higgins has back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons despite playing alongside a target hog in No. 1 WR Ja’Marr Chase, but in Week 1, he had an embarrassing 0-0-0 receiving line while still seeing 95% of the offensive snaps.

But last week, he also had a league-high 145 unrealized air yards on eight targets (sheesh, right?), so he’s still very much involved in the offense and likely to bounce back.

The Ravens seem likely to be without No. 1 CB Marlon Humphrey (foot) and FS Marcus Williams (pectoral).

Mike Williams (Chargers) vs. Titans

• Chargers: -3.5
• O/U: 45.5
• Team Total: 24.5

Williams did little in Week 1 (4-45-0 receiving), but he was efficient as usual (9.0 yards per target) and played more in the slot (career-high 42.9% slot route rate), resulting in an 80% catch rate (vs. 67.7% last year).

With two 1,000-yard seasons to his name, Williams is a strong perimeter presence and one of the league’s best No. 2 WRs.

Last year, the Titans were No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (23.9 FPPG).

Mike Evans (Buccaneers) vs. Bears

• Buccaneers: -3
• O/U: 41.5
• Team Total: 22.25

Evans is the only player in NFL history to open his career with nine 1,000-yard receiving seasons, and he might make it a tidy 10 if we can read anything into Week 1. He had 6-66-1 receiving on 10 targets and could’ve had a bigger performance if he hadn’t dropped a 21-yard would-be TD.

Sep 10, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans (13) catches a pass for a touchdown against the Minnesota Vikings in the second quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

The Bears last year were No. 32 defensive dropback SR (51.7%) and pass DVOA (31.2%).

Chris Godwin (Buccaneers) vs. Bears

• Buccaneers: -3
• O/U: 41.5
• Team Total: 22.25

Godwin wasn’t prolific in Week 1 (5-51-0 receiving), but he was efficient (8.5 yards per target) and the team’s clear No. 2 pass catcher (six targets). 

A power slot receiver with inside/outside versatility, Godwin has put up 5,141 yards and 31 TDs receiving for the Buccaneers.

With slot CB Kyler Gordon (hand) likely out, Godwin could have a soft matchup against undrafted second-year backup Josh Blackwell (76 career coverage snaps).

Deebo Samuel (49ers) at Rams

• 49ers: -8
• O/U: 45
• Team Total: 26.5 

Samuel’s 2021 First-Team All-Pro performance (1,770 yards, 14 TDs on 121 targets, 59 carries) is starting to feel like an extreme outlier, given that he has never had 1,000 scrimmage yards or 100 targets in any other season, and he had only 63 yards on seven targets and two carries in Week 1.

Even so, he has 19-378-3 receiving on 25 targets and 22-109-2 rushing in four games against the Rams over the past two years (including the postseason).

Zay Flowers (Ravens) at Bengals

• Ravens: +3.5
• O/U: 46.5
• Team Total: 21.5 

The Ravens will be without No. 1 RB J.K. Dobbins (Achilles) and could be without No. 1 TE Mark Andrews (quad, out Week 1), which means that they could lean more on the passing game — especially as road underdogs — and more targets could be available for the WRs.

A first-round rookie with inside/outside versatility, Flowers handily led the Ravens with 9-78-0 receiving on 10 targets and pitched in with 2-9-0 rushing last week in his NFL debut.

Given what we saw in Week 1 — when Flowers had an NFL-high 92.8% WOPR — I think he offers value at +1200 (BetMGM) to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Puka Nacua (Rams) vs. 49ers

• Ravens: +3.5
• O/U: 46.5
• Team Total: 21.5 

Here’s what I wrote about Nacua in my Rams betting preview:

"Nacua is a fifth-round rookie with good size (6-1 and 206 lb.), sufficient speed (4.55-second 40-yard dash), decent college production (91-1,430-11 receiving in two years at BYU, No. 1 receiver both seasons), and an intriguing ball-in-his-hands skill set (39-357-5 rushing in final two seasons) that could make him a regular option on jet sweeps. He’s a potential long-term successor to Robert Woods’ vacated L.A. throne."

I never thought the future would come as early as Week 1, but it did, with Nacua racking up 10-119-0 receiving on a league-high 15 targets.

He could see similarly strong usage in Week 2 without No. 1 WR Cooper Kupp (hamstring, IR). Nacua is a priority waiver target.

Michael Pittman (Colts) at Texans

• Colts: -1
• O/U: 40
• Team Total: 20.5

Pittman entered the campaign with 2,007 yards and 10 TDs receiving over the previous two seasons — he was the No. 1 WR with a 99% route rate last year — and then in Week 1, he flashed with 8-97-1 receiving on a team-high 11 targets. 

The Texans could be weaker than usual in the secondary without SS Jimmie Ward (hip, out Week 1) and FS Jalen Pitre (chest, hospitalized with a Week 1 injury), and Pittman had 12-151-2 receiving on 18 targets in two games against them last year.

Gabe Davis (Bills) vs. Raiders

• Bills: -9
• O/U: 47
• Team Total: 28

Davis had just 2-32-0 receiving on four targets in Week 1 — and he’s unlikely ever to live up to the hype he carried with him into the 2022 campaign after his 8-201-4 receiving performance on 10 targets against the Chiefs in the Divisional Round the prior year — but he’s still an explosive playmaker with 9.1 yards per target for his career.

The Raiders were No. 30 last year in defensive pass DVOA (17.9%) and could be without S Tre’von Moehrig (thumb)

Romeo Doubs (Packers) at Falcons

• Packers: -1.5
• O/U: 40.5
• Team Total: 21

In the absence of No. 1 WR Christian Watson (hamstring) — who seems unlikely to play this Sunday — Doubs led the Packers last week with five targets and four receptions, which he leveraged into a modest 26 yards but glorious two touchdowns.

The Falcons last year were No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (30.2 FPPG).

Michael Thomas (Saints) at Panthers

• Saints: -3
• O/U: 40
• Team Total: 21.5

I’m the sicko who looks at Thomas and always thinks, “He’s probably still got it.” Just so you’re aware.

Thomas has played only three full games since last year (including last week), but in those games, he has 16-183-3 receiving on 25 targets (five within the 10-yard line). He’s no longer the 2019 Offensive Player of the Year who caught an NFL-record 149 receptions, but he’s still serviceable at worst.

The Panthers last year were No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (24.1 FPPG).

Rashid Shaheed (Saints) at Panthers

• Saints: -3
• O/U: 40
• Team Total: 21.5

Shaheed balled out last year as an undrafted rookie with an electric 14.4 yards per target and 14.3 yards per carry, which he leveraged into 545 yards and three TDs from scrimmage. 

He’s unpolished as a receiver and bound to regress, but his big-play ability is undoubted: Last year, he was No. 2 with a 138.4 QB rating when targeted, and in Week 1, he broke loose with 5-89-1 receiving on six targets and added 2-11-0 rushing.

He could see exceptionally soft coverage playing alongside Olave and Thomas.

Jayden Reed (Packers) at Falcons

• Packers: -1.5
• O/U: 40.5
• Team Total: 21

In his NFL debut last week, Reed tied Doubs with a team-high five targets, which turned into an efficient 48-yard receiving despite sitting out part of the game with leg cramps. Without Watson, Reed could once again be a primary pass catcher for the Packers.

A second-round rookie, Reed led Western Michigan with 56-797-8 receiving as an 18-year-old true freshman before transferring to Michigan State, where he had 1,000-plus yards receiving and 13 all-purpose touchdowns as a junior: He has legitimate talent and inside/outside versatility.

The Falcons were No. 30 last year in defensive dropback SR (49.5%).

Freedman’s Favorite Week 2 TEs

Travis Kelce (Chiefs) at Jaguars

• Chiefs: -3
• O/U: 51
• Team Total: 27

Kelce might already be the greatest receiving tight end of all time with seven consecutive seasons of 1,000-plus yards receiving. Last year, he had a position-high 8.9 targets per game and 648 yards after catch. 

Feb 12, 2023; Glendale, Arizona, US; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) celebrates a touchdown against the Philadelphia Eagles during the first quarter of Super Bowl LVII at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Kelce (knee) missed the season opener with a bone bruise, but I expect him to return for Week 2 and be his usual dominant self.

In two games against the Jaguars last year (Week 10, Divisional Round), he dominated with 20-179-3 receiving on 24 targets. 

Darren Waller (Giants) at Cardinals

• Giants: -4
• O/U: 39.5
• Team Total: 21.75

On the one hand, Waller had just 3-36-0 receiving on five targets in Week 1. On the other hand, he was the team’s No. 1 pass catcher with those numbers. I suppose that’s good for something.

The Cardinals last year were No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (11.6 FPPG).

Kyle Pitts (Falcons) vs. Packers

• Falcons: +1.5
• O/U: 40.5
• Team Total: 19.5

Hey, don’t walk away! I’m talking to you!

Sure, Pitts had just three targets and two receptions last week — but he also had a team-high 44 yards receiving and a league-high 89.1% air yards share, so, you know, we should be almost happy.

Last year, Pitts was the No. 1 TE end with a 27% target-per-route rate and 92% slot rate. At some point, the full-blown breakout will happen.

Sam LaPorta (Lions) vs. Seahawks

• Lions: -6
• O/U: 48.5
• Team Total: 27.25

LaPorta dominated at Iowa as the No. 1 receiver (111-1,327-4 receiving in 2021-22), got second-round draft capital in April, and then had 5-39-0 receiving on five targets in his first NFL game last week.

He has three extra days of rest coming off Thursday Night Football. The Seahawks last year were also No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (9.8 FPPG), and they could be without SS Jamal Adams (quad), who missed Week 1.

Cole Kmet (Bears) at Buccaneers

• Bears: +3
• O/U: 41.5
• Team Total: 19.25

I feel dirty even mentioning Kmet, but he led the Bears with a nice (sort of) 69 targets last year, and in Week 1, he tied for the team lead with seven targets.

Here is some disgustingly cheap volume, and the Buccaneers last year were No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (9.8 FPPG).

Jake Ferguson (Cowboys) vs. Jets

• Cowboys: -7.5
• O/U: 41.5
• Team Total: 24.5

Ferguson massively disappointed last week with 2-11-0 receiving, but he also easily led the team with seven targets.

He played sparsely but well last year as a rookie, ranking as the No. 8 TE with 1.66 yards per route.

Abbreviations

• Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Over/Under (O/U)
• Moneyline (ML)
• Return on Investment (ROI)
• Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success Rate (SR)
• Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
• AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
• Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)