Week 4: The real turning point of the season.

For my fantasy teams and for NFL teams and players, Week 4 is where we really have a sense of what we’re looking at.

With just one game of data, we can always say, “Well, it’s just one game.” With two games, we can say, “Yeah, but look at the matchups.”

But with three games, we can start to say something somewhat definitive or at least reasonably probabilistic:

  • “This team is good.”
  • “That team is likely bad.”
  • “This guy is actually an RB1.”
  • “That guy can’t consistently produce.”

Week 4 is the place where I bury many lifeless prior assumptions carried with me from the offseason.

On the trail from Texas to Montana, Week 4 is the Oklahoma panhandle. Better to let your misguided expectations die a quick death early in the journey than drag them with you through the Great Plains of Weeks 5-13 only to put them in the ground just outside the promised land you’ll never reach: The fantasy playoffs.

Week 4: The assurances of the 2022 season are dead. Long live the 2023 campaign.

Freedman’s Favorites for Week 4

Here are my preliminary Week 4 favorites. These are the guys who (in some combination):

  • Might be high in my fantasy rankings relative to the industry consensus.
  • Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
  • Must be added if they are on waivers.
  • Possess underappreciated upside.
  • Have advantageous matchups.
  • Appear in my DFS player pool.
  • Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
  • Are on teams with player-friendly betting odds.
  • Catch my eye with their player projections.
  • Stand out in our player prop tool.

Some notes.

Updates: After I submit this piece (usually on Tuesday night), I won’t make any updates here. Rather, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my rankings and my projections, which I will periodically update throughout the week.

Scoring & Ordering: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players are ordered within position roughly (but probably not precisely) according to my rankings as of writing.

Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use. (I don’t want to clutter up the intro by listing them all here.)

Sports Betting Data: Odds are as of 10:45 pm ET on Tuesday, Sep. 26, and based on the official Unabated Lines (the best representation of a market-making sportsbook consensus).

Freedman’s Favorite Week 4 QBs

Josh Allen (Bills) vs. Dolphins

  • Bills: -3 
  • O/U: 53.5
  • TT: 28.25

Allen was abominable in Week 1 (three INTs, two fumbles, one lost fumble, 3.0 AY/A), but in Weeks 2-3, he returned to form with 492-4-1 passing on a 73.9% completion rate and 7.6 AY/A and 6-53-1 rushing.

He has been the No. 1 QB in FFPG (27.4) and No. 3 in composite EPA + CPOE (0.149, per RBs Don’t Matter) since 2020, when the team gifted him No. 1 WR Stefon Diggs.

With 3,176 yards and 39 TDs rushing across his career of five-plus years, he has an elite week-to-week fantasy floor and was a QB1 last year in all but two games (per RotoViz). In 2022, he was the No. 1 QB with 50% of his team’s carries inside the five-yard line.

The Dolphins defense under new DC Vic Fangio is still developing. Last year, Allen averaged 29.6 FPPG in three games against the Dolphins on 1,056-9-2 passing with a 63.4% completion rate and 8.1 AY/A and 22-144-0 rushing.

Justin Herbert (Chargers) vs. Raiders

  • Chargers: -5.5
  • O/U: 47.5
  • TT: 26.5

In 2020, Herbert had maybe the best passing campaign ever for a first-year QB (4,336 yards, 31 TDs) on his way to winning Offensive Rookie of the Year, and then in 2021-22, he was No. 3 with 9,753 yards passing. Last year, the Chargers were No. 2 in dropback over expectation (6.97%), so Herbert’s passing floor is high.

With the return of Pro Bowl LT Rashawn Slater (out most of 2022 with a biceps injury) and the addition of proven OC Kellen Moore, Herbert is No. 1 with a 74.4% completion rate and No. 3 with 939 yards passing and 8.8 AY/A.  

He will be without WR Mike Williams (knee, IR), but that shouldn’t matter against the Raiders, who are No. 29 in defensive dropback EPA (0.287). In two games against the Raiders last year, Herbert had 614-4-0 passing with a 66.7% completion rate and 8.6 AY/A.

Daniel Jones (Giants) vs. Seahawks

  • Giants: -1.5
  • O/U: 47
  • TT: 24.25

Jones has been #notgood to start the year (4.4 AY/A, No. 31), but he has an elevated floor thanks to his career-high eight carries per game and position-high 24% designed rush rate (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).  

Going from Thursday to Monday, Jones has extra time to rest and prepare, and the Seahawks are No. 31 in defensive dropback SR (53.4%) and could be without CBs Riq Woolen (shoulder), Coby Bryant (toe), and Tre Brown (concussion).

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Brock Purdy (49ers) vs. Cardinals

  • 49ers: -14
  • O/U: 44
  • TT: 29

In his seven full games last year — from Week 14 to the Divisional Round — Purdy went 7-0 as a starter and operated the offense with elite efficiency, ranking No. 1 in EPA + CPOE (0.161). 

This year, he has picked up where he left off: Through three games, he’s No. 2 in EPA + CPOE (0.184) and AY/A (9.0) — two QB efficiency metrics highly correlated with MVP voting outcome. I’m not saying that Purdy will win the award (although I have a position on him from the offseason at +5000 in our FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker), but he’s playing well.

The 49ers have a three-day advantage for rest and preparation and a slate-high team total (29 points).

For his career, Purdy is 8-2 ATS (52.1% ROI) and 10-0 ML (36.9% ROI, per Action Network) as a favorite.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 4 RBs

Christian McCaffrey (49ers) vs. Cardinals

  • 49ers: -14
  • O/U: 44
  • TT: 29

In his 17 games with the 49ers, McCaffrey has 1,932 yards and 16 TDs on 259 carries and 92 targets (including playoffs). That seems good.

Although he ceded some work to No. 2 RB Elijah Mitchell last week, he still has 89% of the snaps for short down and distance, 94% long down and distance, and 100% two minutes.

Christian McCaffrey

September 21, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (23) runs past New York Giants linebacker Micah McFadden (41) during the second quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

McCaffrey leads the league with 353 yards rushing, and the Cardinals are No. 31 in defensive rush SR (50.6%). 

I have a +8000 ticket (acquired after Week 2) on McCaffrey to win MVP. I fully expect to lose the bet, but if a non-QB producer wins the award, it will likely be him.

James Cook (Bills) vs. Dolphins

  • Bills: -3 
  • O/U: 53.5
  • TT: 28.25

Cook wasn’t prolific in Week 1 (63 yards), but he had a tough matchup against the Jets and at least dominated the backfield (12 carries, six targets) — and then in Weeks 2-3, he had 32-221-0 rushing and 6-50-0 receiving on seven targets.

With 18-plus opportunities in every game, Cook has a high week-to-week floor, and with enough touches, he’ll eventually, you know, score a TD. 

Cook doesn’t have a large circumstantial edge, but it probably doesn’t hurt that he’s a home favorite, and the Dolphins are 30th in defensive rush EPA (0.044) and SR (49.4%).

Alexander Mattison (Vikings) at Panthers

  • Vikings: -3.5 
  • O/U: 45.5
  • TT: 24.5

Finally, in Week 3, Mattison managed not to be a colossal disappointment (125 yards). For the year, he has 56 of the team’s 68 backfield opportunities (39 carries, 17 targets), and he leads the Vikings with nine opportunities (six carries, three targets) inside the 10-yard line.

Given that C Garrett Bradbury (back) got in multiple limited practices last week and was questionable heading into the weekend, I expect that he will return this week, and the Panthers could be without both their primary off-ball run defenders in LBs Shaq Thompson (ankle, IR) and Frankie Luvu (hip).

The Panthers are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (31.2 FPPG).

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots) at Cowboys

  • Patriots: +7 
  • O/U: 43.5
  • TT: 18.25

Stevenson has been poor this year as a runner (2.9 yards per carry) and pedestrian as a receiver (5.9 yards per target), and last week, he split work with No. 2 RB Ezekiel Elliott (19 carries, four targets for Stevenson vs. 16, one for Zeke) — but he has still had 18-plus opportunities in every game this season.

With 1,461 yards from scrimmage last year and 93-621-1 receiving on 119 targets in two-plus years, Stevenson is still the lead back and a three-down producer in a run-friendly offense.

The Cowboys' defense is theoretically fearsome — but it’s also No. 32 in rush SR (50.8%) and last week was exploited by the mediocre Cardinals.

Zack Moss (Colts) vs. Rams

  • Colts: -1 
  • O/U: 46.5
  • TT: 23.75

Moss missed Week 1, but in his six games as the lead back in lieu of injured RB Jonathan Taylor (ankle/back, PUP) going back to Week 15 last year, he has 598 yards and three TDs on 117 carries and 12 targets.

This year specifically, he has balled out with 252 yards and two TDs on 48 carries and seven targets in two games.

The Rams are No. 29 in defensive rush EPA (0.030) and defensive rush DVOA (13.5%, per FTN).

Javonte Williams (Broncos) at Bears

  • Broncos: -3
  • O/U: 46
  • TT: 24.5

Williams is yet to flash his pre-injury form (3.8 yards per carry, 3.5 yards per target, 180 scoreless yards this year) — but he has 14-plus opportunities in every game and sees regular work as a runner (36 carries) and receiver (12 targets).

Despite getting blown out by 50 points on Sunday and entering Week 4 with a flaccid 0-3 record, the Broncos are favored by more than a field goal at most sportsbooks, which says a lot about the quality of their matchup.

The Bears are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (32.0 FPPG).

Joshua Kelley (Chargers) vs. Raiders

  • Chargers: -5.5
  • O/U: 47.5
  • TT: 26.5

Look, in the fantasy leagues that award points on utilization, Kelley has crushed the past two weeks, right? OK, I grant that he had only … checks notes … 56 scoreless yards (gag) in Weeks 2-3, but he also had 24 carries and two targets in that stretch with 83% of the snaps on short down and distance, 77% long down and distance, and 100% two minutes.

I’m skeptical that No. 1 RB Austin Ekeler (ankle) will suit up this week given that he didn’t practice at all last week and was ruled out before the weekend, so I expect Kelley to operate as the lead back for the Chargers for at least one more week.

As a home favorite, Kelley could benefit from a run-heavy game script against the Raiders, who are No. 25 in defensive rush SR (44.7%).

Roschon Johnson (Bears) vs. Broncos

  • Bears: +3 
  • O/U: 46
  • TT: 21.5

Over the past two games — since RB D’Onta Foreman was made a gameday inactive in Week 2 — Johnson has turned the Bears backfield into a tight two-man committee. Last week, he actually had more opportunities (eight carries, two targets) than and played almost as many snaps (23) as No. 1 RB Khalil Herbert (seven, two, 28).

Johnson seems likely to overtake Herbert eventually, and that could happen as soon as this week against the Broncos, who are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (47.2 FPPG).

A four-star fourth-round rookie, Johnson flashed with 2,610 yards and 26 TDs on limited usage (392 carries, 56 receptions) in college, and he has been reasonably effective in the NFL with 5.3 yards per carry and 5.1 yards per target.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 4 WRs

Stefon Diggs (Bills) vs. Dolphins

  • Bills: -3 
  • O/U: 53.5
  • TT: 28.25

Diggs managed to show out in Week 1 on Monday Night Football (10-102-1 receiving on 13 targets) even with QB Josh Allen doing his human impersonation of the Halifax Explosion, and in Weeks 2-3, he maintained his form with 15-177-0 receiving on 19 targets.

Stefon Diggs

Aug 26, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Buffalo Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs (14) warms up before a game against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Bartel-USA TODAY Sports

Diggs is No. 4 in the NFL with 4,468 yards receiving since the Bills acquired him in 2020.

The Dolphins are No. 27 in defensive dropback SR (50.0%) and without No. 1 CB Jalen Ramsey (knee, IR).

Davante Adams (Raiders) at Chargers

  • Raiders: +5.5
  • O/U: 47.5 
  • TT: 21

Adams might be without No. 1 QB Jimmy Garoppolo (concussion), but he also might be the league’s most QB-proof pass catcher, given his overall talent (8.6 yards per target since 2018) and volume (10.8 targets per game since 2018).

Since joining the Raiders last year, he has 125-1,838-17 receiving on 217 targets in 20 games, and this year, he has 25-322-3 receiving on 37 targets in three contests and is the No. 3 WR with 428 air yards and a 47.7% air yard share.

Last year, Adams had 18-318-3 receiving on 29 targets in two games against the Chargers, who are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (47.3 FPPG).

Ja’Marr Chase (Bengals) at Titans

  • Bengals: -2.5
  • O/U: 41 
  • TT: 21.75

Chase and the entire Bengals offense disappointed in Weeks 1-2 (10-70-0 receiving on 17 targets, 1-2-0 rushing), but he discovered his inner studliness in Week 3 with an emphatic 12-141-0 receiving performance on 15 targets.

With 2,501 yards and 22 TDs receiving across his first two seasons, the third-year Chase is still very much one of the league’s best receivers.

The Titans are No. 29 in defensive dropback SR (50.8%) and could be without starting perimeter CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (concussion).

Keenan Allen (Chargers) vs. Raiders

  • Chargers: -5.5
  • O/U: 47.5
  • TT: 26.5

Allen entered the season with 9.8 targets per game over the past three years, and then in Weeks 1-3, he leveled up with 39 targets, which he leveraged into 32-402-2 receiving (and to which he added six yards rushing and a 49-yard TD pass).

Without WR Mike Williams (knee, IR) and possibly RB Austin Ekeler (ankle), the Chargers could inundate Allen with as many targets as he can handle.

Last year, Allen had 10-154-1 receiving on 18 targets in two games against the Raiders, who are No. 30 in defensive dropback SR (52.2%).

DK Metcalf (Seahawks) at Giants

  • Seahawks: +1.5
  • O/U: 47
  • TT: 22.75

Metcalf is an alpha beast with Calvin Johnson-like athleticism (4.33-second 40-yard dash at 6-3 and 228 lbs.) and 306-4,218-35 receiving in his first four seasons with the Seahawks.

For the season, he has 15-234-1 receiving (12.3 yards per target), and last year, he was No. 1 in the league with a 40% red zone target share.

The Giants are No. 30 in defensive dropback EPA (0.348) and might be without No. 1 CB Deonte Banks (arm).

Jaylen Waddle (Dolphins) at Bills

  • Dolphins: +3
  • O/U: 53.5
  • TT: 25.25

Waddle (concussion) missed last week, and before that, he wasn’t a volume magnet (11 targets), but he was an expectedly über-efficient producer (14.9 yards per target). I expect him to play this week, given that he got in a limited practice last Friday and was questionable heading into the weekend before being ruled out.

Waddle entered the year as one of the league’s most dynamic playmakers through his first two seasons (179-2,371-14 receiving, 9.2 yards per target), and — this is just gut-based conjecture — this feels like the kind of spot where the Dolphins will attempt to get Waddle in on the fun after they put up 70 points last week in his absence.

The Bills don’t have a satisfactory coverage option across from No. 1 CB Tre’Davious White, given that 2022 first-round CB Kaiir Elam has been a gameday inactive each week to open the year. 

Michael Pittman (Colts) vs. Rams

  • Colts: -1 
  • O/U: 46.5
  • TT: 23.75

Pittman entered the campaign with 2,007 yards and 10 TDs receiving over the previous two seasons — he was the No. 1 WR with a 99% route rate last year — and then he had 10-plus targets in each of Weeks 1-3, putting up 25-230-1 receiving on 34 targets.

No. 1 WRs have had success against the Rams CBs this year: D.K. Metcalf (3-47-1 receiving, five targets) in Week 1, Deebo Samuel (6-63-0 receiving on nine targets, 5-38-1 rushing) in Week 2, and Ja’Marr Chase (12-141-0 receiving on 15 targets) in Week 3.  

Jakobi Meyers (Raiders) at Chargers

  • Raiders: +5.5
  • O/U: 47.5 
  • TT: 21

Meyers might be without No. 1 QB Jimmy Garoppolo (concussion), but he dealt with subpar QB play for years with the Patriots and still put up a respectable 2,399 yards receiving on 303 targets in 2020-22.

He missed Week 2 with a head injury, but in Weeks 1 & 3, he had 16-166-2 receiving on 22 targets.

The Chargers are No. 28 in defensive dropback EPA (0.277) and SR (50%) and benched No. 2 CB J.C. Jackson last week due to inefficiency.

Tank Dell (Texans) vs. Steelers

  • Texans: +3 
  • O/U: 42
  • TT: 19.5

With WR Noah Brown (groin, IR) sidelined since Week 2, Dell has operated as the No. 2 WR behind Robert Woods in route rate (82%) and Nico Collins in target rate (22%), but he has been the No. 1 pass catcher with 12-217-2 receiving on 17 targets and 221 air yards.  

Despite his Lilliputian size (5’8” and 165 lbs) and modest speed (4.49-second 40-yard dash), the third-round rookie is suddenly shifty and can play outside: He looks like a legitimate NFL contributor.

The Steelers are No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 2 WRs (77.3%).

D.J. Moore (Bears) vs. Broncos

  • Bears: +3 
  • O/U: 46
  • TT: 21.5

Moore is likely to be inconsistent in his first season with the Bears, but he was productive (5,201 yards receiving, 335 yards rushing) and efficient (8.4 yards per target, 8.6 yards per carry) with the Panthers for the first half-decade of his career despite dealing with subpar QB play.

After an abominable Week 1 (2-25-0 receiving, two targets), Moore got back on track in Weeks 2-3 with 9-145-1 receiving on 13 targets. He’s the No. 2 WR with 166 snaps.

The Broncos are No. 32 in defensive dropback EPA (0.529), SR (55.4%), and pass DVOA (61.4%). “I am the son and the heir of nothing in particular”: If not now, when? 

Tutu Atwell (Rams) at Colts

  • Rams: +1
  • O/U: 46.5
  • TT: 22.75

Rookie WR Puka Nacua is getting lots of attention — and rightly so! — but we shouldn’t overlook what Atwell has done through three weeks, with 17-246-1 receiving on 26 targets and 2-27-0 rushing. (Last week, he should’ve had a rushing TD, but it was [incorrectly?] nullified. Sheesh.)

As long as QB Matthew Stafford is playing at his current level and WR Cooper Kupp (hamstring, IR) is out, Atwell seems likely to remain a productive player as the complementary option to Nacua.

The Colts are No. 28 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 2 WRs (66.0%).

Rashid Shaheed (Saints) vs. Buccaneers

  • Saints: -3
  • O/U: 41
  • TT: 22

Shaheed balled out last year as an undrafted rookie with an electric 14.4 yards per target and 14.3 yards per carry, which he leveraged into 545 yards and three TDs from scrimmage. 

He’s unpolished as a receiver and bound to regress, but his big-play ability is undoubted: Last year, he was No. 2 with a 138.4 QB rating when targeted, and in Weeks 1-3, he broke loose with 9-152-1 receiving on 12 targets with 2-11-0 rushing and a punt return TD.

He could see exceptionally soft coverage playing alongside Nos. 1-2 WRs Chris Olave and Michael Thomas, and the Buccaneers are No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 3 WRs (78.5%).

Marvin Mims (Broncos) at Bears

  • Broncos: -3
  • O/U: 46
  • TT: 24.5

The Broncos need to get Mims on the field more: Despite playing just 48 snaps this year, he’s No. 1 on the team with 195 yards receiving on nine targets and seven receptions, adding 3-13-0 rushing and a kick return TD. 

At some point, he’ll get more playing time, and that could happen this week against the Bears, who are No. 31 in defensive dropback EPA (0.402) and pass DVOA (53.8%) and could be without starting CBs Kyler Gordon (hand, IR), Jaylon Johnson (hamstring), and Tyrique Stevenson (concussion), backup CB Josh Blackwell (hamstring), and starting FS Eddie Jackson (foot).

Justin Watson (Chiefs) at Jets

  • Chiefs: -9.5
  • O/U: 42.5
  • TT: 26

Of the Chiefs WRs who play most in three-wide sets, Watson this year has run the fewest routes (64) — but he has the most yards receiving (158) and air yards (283).

Since joining the Chiefs last year, Watson has been an efficient pass catcher (10.3 yards per target), and this year especially, he has been a downfield threat (22.7-yard aDOT).

The matchup feels tough, but the Jets are No. 25 in defensive dropback EPA (0.183) and SR (49.6%). They’re not invincible.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 4 TEs

Travis Kelce (Chiefs) at Jets

  • Chiefs: -9.5
  • O/U: 42.5
  • TT: 26

Kelce might already be the greatest receiving tight end of all time with seven consecutive seasons of 1,000-plus yards receiving. Last year, he had a position-high 8.9 targets per game and 648 yards after catch. 

Travis Kelce

At age 32, Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce posted career highs last season in receptions (110) and touchdowns (12).

Kelce (knee) missed the season opener with a bone bruise but has returned to form since then, with 11-95-2 receiving on 17 targets.

The Jets are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (14.3 FPPG) and could be without S Tony Adams (hamstring).

Logan Thomas (Commanders) at Eagles

  • Commanders: +8
  • O/U: 44.5
  • TT: 18.25

Thomas (concussion) exited Week 2 with an injury and missed Week 3, but he has a chance to return this week and had a team-high eight targets with an 82% snap rate in Week 1.

If Thomas is out, No. 2 TE Cole Turner will be a potential fantasy fill-in. Last week, he had a team-high seven targets.

The Eagles are No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against TEs (83.1%) and could be without starting S Justin Evans (neck) and backup S Sydney Brown (thigh).

Cole Kmet (Bears) vs. Broncos

  • Bears: +3 
  • O/U: 46
  • TT: 21.5

I feel dirty even mentioning Kmet, but he led the Bears with a nice (sort of) 69 targets last year, and he’s tied for the team lead with 15 targets this year.

The Broncos are No. 28 in defensive pass DVOA against TEs (49.8%), and they could be without both SS Caden Sterns (knee, IR) and FS Justin Simmons (hip).

Luke Musgrave (Packers) vs. Lions

  • Packers: +1.5
  • O/U: 46
  • TT: 22.25

Musgrave has played at least 75% of the offensive snaps in every game, and he has a solid 8.3 yards per target on 15 targets: He’s a real part of the offense.

The Lions are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (14.8 FPPG) and could be without SS C.J. Gardner-Johnson (pectoral, IR) and FS Kerby Joseph (hip).

Abbreviations

  • Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
  • Against the Spread (ATS)
  • Over/Under (O/U)
  • Team Total (TT)
  • Moneyline (ML)
  • Return on Investment (ROI)
  • Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
  • Expected Points Added (EPA)
  • Success Rate (SR)
  • Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
  • Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
  • AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
  • Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
  • Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
Freedman