Freedman's Favorites. The Best Fantasy Football Plays For Week 7.

We’re now through a third of the NFL season and nearing the halfway point of the fantasy season.

Time flies — but it also dies.

This is the point in the year when you’ve got to dig deep.

You’re tired. The weather is getting colder. Your players are getting injured. The bye week is decimating your fantasy team.

Your wife is trying to plan what you’ll wear to her Halloween work party, and your mother-in-law is already cudgeling you with Thanksgiving plans.

Side note: Please pretend as if that last paragraph was definitely fictitious. I’m highly imaginative. There’s no resemblance to my reality at all. Just hypothetical. Etc.

You get the idea.

This time of the fantasy season can start to be a grind.

As I see it, you have three options whenever life gives you challenges:

• Quit.
• Keep your nose to the grindstone.
• Become the grindstone.

The choice of champions is clear.

Freedman’s Favorites for Week 7

Here are my preliminary Week 7 favorites. These are the guys who (in some combination) …

• Might be high in my fantasy rankings relative to the industry consensus.
• Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
• Must be added if they are on waivers.
• Possess underappreciated upside.
• Have advantageous matchups.
• Appear in my DFS player pool.
• Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
• Are on teams with player-friendly betting odds.
• Catch my eye with their player projections.
• Stand out in our player prop tool.

Some notes.

• Updates: After I submit this piece (usually on Tuesday night), I won’t make any updates here. Rather, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my rankings and my projections, which I will periodically update throughout the week.
• Rankings Accuracy: As of Week 5, I’m No. 16 in the FantasyPros Accuracy Contest (Week 6 is not graded as of writing). Last year, I was No. 11. The year before, I was No. 14. In total, I’ve finished in the top-20 five times.
• Scoring & Ordering: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players are ordered within position roughly (but probably not precisely) according to my rankings as of writing.
• Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use. (I don’t want to clutter up the intro by listing them all here.)
• Sports Betting Data: Odds are as of 7:15 pm ET on Tuesday, Oct. 17, and based on the official Unabated Lines (the best representation of a market-making sportsbook consensus).
• Bye Week: The Bengals, Cowboys, Titans, Jets, Panthers, and Texans are all on bye this week. That feels like an unnecessary number of teams.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 6 QBs

Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) vs. Chargers

• Chiefs: -5.5
• O/U: 48
• TT: 26.75

Mahomes hasn’t been his usual spectacular self six weeks into the season, but since his first year as a starter (2018), he is No. 1 in FPPG (26.6)

And last week, he had a season-high 306 yards passing.

Last year, he led the league with 5,250 yards and 41 TDs passing — not to mention 123 red zone pass attempts — and he has lowkey rushing ability (20-plus rushing yards per game in the past three years, 30.8 this year).

In 2022, the Chiefs were No. 1 in the league in dropback over expectation (9.04%), and this week, they have a good matchup with the Chargers, against whom Mahomes has averaged 25.1 fantasy points on 308.5 yards and 2.75 TDs passing across four games under defensive HC Brandon Staley.

Situationally, this is an excellent spot for the Chiefs, who are at home with extra rest (10 days), whereas the Chargers are on short rest (six days).

Even with his modest start to the season, Mahomes is now No. 2 in the MVP market. The best price available for him is +450 (DraftKings). I have a +500 ticket on him to win MVP logged in our FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker.

Geno Smith (Seahawks) vs. Cardinals

• Seahawks: -7.5 
• O/U: 44.5
• TT: 26

Smith hasn’t lived up to his 2022 Comeback Player of the Year campaign through six weeks. Last year, he had a league-high 69.8% completion rate and a league-low 11.6% bad throw rate on his way to a 7.7 AY/A. This year, 67.7%, 18.8%, and 6.9 AY/A.

Last year, he had eight games with at least 250 yards and two TDs passing. This year, he has hit that mark just once.

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith (7) runs in the fourth quarter during an NFL football game between the Seattle Seahawks and the Cincinnati Bengals Sunday, Oct. 15, 2023, at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati. The Cincinnati Bengals won, 17-13.

But this week, he’s in an excellent bounce-back spot against the Cardinals, who are No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (19.7 FFPG).

Under HC Pete Carroll, the Seahawks at home are 63-48-3 ATS (10.4% ROI) and 79-35 ML (13% ROI, per Action Network). 

Jordan Love (Packers) at Broncos

• Packers: -1 
• O/U: 44.5
• TT: 22.75

Love is Nos. 24 & 26 in AY/A (6.0) and composite EPA + CPOE (0.026, per RBs Don’t Matter), and he has passed for more than 250 yards just once. He does not seem to be the promised prince to the lineally descended throne of Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers.

But he is also yet to play a game with his full complement of skill-position weapons, and that should change this week with the expected return of RB Aaron Jones (hamstring).

Coming off the bye, Love should be as prepared as possible for the Broncos, who are No. 32 in defensive dropback SR (54.6%).

Freedman’s Favorite Week 6 RBs

Austin Ekeler (Chargers) at Chiefs

• Chargers: +5.5 
• O/U: 48
• TT: 21.25

Ekeler (ankle) suffered an injury in Week 1 but played through it to deliver a champion-level performance with 164 yards and a TD on 16 carries and five targets … and then he missed the next three games.

But he returned to action on Monday Night Football after the Week 5 bye, and even though his production was uninspiring (62 scoreless yards), his usage was strong (14 carries, six targets).

In his two-plus years under HC Brandon Staley, Ekeler has put up 3,421 yards and 39 TDs from scrimmage in 35 games, and last year, he was the No. 1 fantasy RB (22.2 PPR FPPG).

The Chiefs are No. 29 in defensive rush EPA (0.010).

Kenneth Walker (Seahawks) vs. Cardinals

• Seahawks: -7.5 
• O/U: 44.5
• TT: 26

In 2022, Walker finished No. 2 in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting with 1,215 yards and nine TDs, and this season, he has 445 yards and six TDs in five games. With at least 17 opportunities (carries and targets combined) in every contest, he has one of the highest ceiling/floor combinations at the position.

Walker is No. 2 in the league with 88% of his team’s carries inside the 10-yard line, and he’s tied for No. 3 with nine broken tackles.

He could see ample work as a large home favorite, and the Cardinals are No. 31 in defensive rush SR (48.8%).

Josh Jacobs (Raiders) at Bears

• Raiders: -3
• O/U: 37
• TT: 20

After holding out all of training camp to get a better contract, Jacobs has inevitably regressed from last year’s first-team All-Pro campaign, in which he had a league-high 393 touches and 2,053 yards.

But it’s not as if he has been terrible this season: He has 521 yards (and, fine, just two TDs) through six weeks with 15-plus opportunities in every game.

QB Jimmy Garoppolo (back) is uncertain at best to play this weekend after being taken to the hospital in Week 6 with an injury, and without Garoppolo, the Raiders might opt to funnel as much of their offense as possible through the backfield.

The Bears are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (24.4 FPPG).

Aaron Jones (Packers) at Broncos

• Packers: -1 
• O/U: 44.5
• TT: 22.75

Jones (hamstring) was a somewhat surprise inactive in Week 5 after returning to limited action in Week 4 — but he should be ready to go now after the Week 6 bye.

Given that Jones exited Week 1 with an injury, played sparingly in Week 4, and has missed all the other Packers games, it’s impossible to evaluate him on anything done in 2023. But before this season, he dominated the Packers backfield for a solid half-decade (2018-22) with 6,657 yards and 56 touchdowns from scrimmage.

The Broncos are No. 30 in defensive rush EPA (0.022).

Isiah Pacheco (Chiefs) vs. Chargers

• Chiefs: -5.5
• O/U: 48
• TT: 26.75

Pacheco disappointed in Weeks 1-2 with 124 scoreless scrimmage yards, but he has impressed since then with a clean 398 yards and three touchdowns on 67 carries and 13 targets over the past month.

He has 12-plus opportunities in every game this year, and he could approach 20 touches with multiple goal-line opportunities as a home favorite against the Chargers, against whom he had 107 yards on 15 carries last year in Week 11 after becoming the team’s lead back.

Brian Robinson (Commanders) at Giants

• Commanders: -2
• O/U: 39
• TT: 20.5

Robinson isn’t an exciting player, and his between-the-tackles skill set makes him vulnerable to unfriendly game states: In a 37-3 Week 3 loss to the Bills, he had a snap rate of just 37%, and against the Bears in Week 5, he had a 36% snap rate in a 40-20 loss.

Oct 1, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Washington Commanders running back Brian Robinson Jr. (8) celebrates his touchdown against the Philadelphia Eagles during the fourth quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

But in Weeks 1-2, 4, & 6 — all games decided by no more than eight points — Robinson put up 302 yards and five TDs on 61 carries and nine targets.

He should be able to stay involved as a favorite against the Giants, who yielded 218 yards on 33 carries and three targets to Robinson last year as a rookie.

Roschon Johnson (Bears) vs. Raiders

• Bears: +3
• O/U: 37
• TT: 17

Johnson (concussion) missed last week with an injury, but I expect him to clear the league’s protocol this week after playing on Thursday Night Football in Week 5.

He will be without RB Khalil Herbert (ankle, IR) when he returns. He could also be without RB Travis Homer (hamstring), who also missed last week and didn’t log a single practice. And he should play ahead of RB D’Onta Foreman, who was a gameday inactive for Weeks 2-5.

With limited backfield competition, a lead back build (6-0, 219 lbs.), and a three-down skill set (4.9 yards per carry, 91.7% catch rate), the rookie Johnson could have 15-plus opportunities this week, especially if the Bears choose to rely on their running game more with QB Justin Fields (hand) uncertain to play.

The Raiders are No. 30 in defensive rush SR (46.2%).

Freedman’s Favorite Week 6 WRs

Tyreek Hill (Dolphins) at Eagles

• Dolphins: +2
• O/U: 52
• TT: 25

I’m yet to highlight Hill in the Favorites piece this year — because what’s the point? — but I’m doing it this week because he’s easily my No. 1 WR.

Last year, he was the No. 1 WR with 3.2 yards per route, and this year, he leads the league with 828 scrimmage yards and 814 receiving yards on 59 targets through six games. With his elite speed and playmaking ability, he’s also the No. 1 WR with 326 yards after catch.

The Eagles could be extremely vulnerable in their secondary given that:

• CBs Avonte Maddox (pectoral, IR) and Zech McPhearson (Achilles, IR) and SS Justin Evans (neck, IR) are out.
• CB Darius Slay (knee) and S Sydney Brown (hamstring) should be considered questionable after missing last week.
• CBs Bradley Roby (shoulder) and Eli Ricks (knee) and FS Reed Blankenship (ribs) exited Week 6 early with injuries.

Hill is the No. 1 fantasy WR this year (23.3 FPPG) and is No. 1 in the Offensive Player of the Year Market. The best price available is +150 (FanDuel).

A.J. Brown (Eagles) vs. Dolphins

• Eagles: -2
• O/U: 52
• TT: 27

Brown had a meh-tacular start to the season with 108 scoreless yards in Weeks 1-2, but in the past month, he has returned to form and then some with 31-564-2 receiving on 44 targets.

In his 23 regular season games with the Eagles since joining the team last year, Brown has 130-2,168-13 receiving with an electric 10.6 yards per target.

The Dolphins are without No. 1 CB Jalen Ramsey (knee, IR) and could be without CBs Xavien Howard (groin) and Nik Needham (Achilles, PUP).

Brandon Aiyuk (49ers) at Vikings

• 49ers: -7
• O/U: 44
• TT: 25.5

Aiyuk came into his own last year with 1,015 yards and eight TDs receiving, and he has continued to impress this year with 22-411-2 receiving on 31 targets in his four full games (he exited Week 2 early with a shoulder injury and missed Week 3).

For the season, he’s No. 1 in the league with a 52.7% air share, and he could see extra opportunities this week with RB Christian McCaffrey (oblique) and WR Deebo Samuel (shoulder) both uncertain to play.

The Vikings are No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (34.9 FPPG).

DK Metcalf (Seahawks) vs. Cardinals

• Seahawks: -7.5 
• O/U: 44.5
• TT: 26

Metcalf is an alpha beast with Calvin Johnson-like athleticism (4.33-second 40-yard dash at 6-3 and 228 lbs.) and 306-4,218-35 receiving in his first four seasons with the Seahawks.

This year, he has a TD or 69 yards in every game — very nice — and he was No. 1 in the league with a 40% red zone target share last year.

The Cardinals are No. 31 in defensive dropback SR (51.8%).

Puka Nacua (Rams) vs. Steelers

• Rams: -3
• O/U: 43.5
• TT: 23.25

Even with the return of Kupp, the rookie Nacua had a 100% route rate and 29% target share in Weeks 5-6 (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).

For the season, Nacua is No. 1 in the league in receptions (50), No. 2 in targets (70), and No. 4 in receiving yards (598). Given his connection with QB Matthew Stafford, Nacua can coexist with Kupp as a high-end WR2 at worst.

Not one of the Steelers top CBs — Patrick Peterson (59.9), Levi Wallace (53.3), and Chandon Sullivan (49.3) — has a PFF coverage grade of even 60.

Jaylen Waddle (Dolphins) at Eagles

• Dolphins: +2
• O/U: 52
• TT: 25

He is yet to have a 100-yard performance this year — and he has just 294 scrimmage yards — but Waddle’s blowup game is coming.

Waddle entered the year as one of the league’s most dynamic playmakers through his first two seasons (179-2,371-14 receiving, 9.2 yards per target). Since returning from a concussion that sidelined him in Week 3, he has matched No. 1 WR Tyreek Hill with 24 targets.

The Eagles are No. 6 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (34.5 FPPG).

DeVonta Smith (Eagles) vs. Dolphins

• Eagles: -2
• O/U: 52
• TT: 27

Smith was great last year (95-1,196-7 receiving), and he dominated in Weeks 1-2 (11-178-2 receiving), but over the past month, his production has cratered (156 scoreless yards).

Still, his usage has remained consistent throughout the year — 7.5 targets in Weeks 1-2 and 7.5 targets in Weeks 3-6 — so a bounce-back performance is likely in his future.

The Eagles have the week’s highest implied total (27 points), and the Dolphins are No. 27 in defensive dropback SR (48.8%).

Mike Evans (Buccaneers) vs. Falcons

• Buccaneers: -2.5
• O/U: 38
• TT: 20.25

With 24-386-3 receiving in five games, Evans is on pace for his 10th consecutive 1,000-yard receiving season. He has eight-plus targets in every game this year but one, and last week, he missed out on what could’ve been a 92-yard TD.

Oct 15, 2023; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans (13) is tackled by Detroit Lions safety Kerby Joseph (31) in the third quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

In his one game against the Falcons last year, Evans had 4-81-0 receiving on eight targets.

The year before that, he had 12-174-2 receiving on 19 targets in two games.

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Terry McLaurin (Commanders) at Giants

• Commanders: -2
• O/U: 39
• TT: 20.5

McLaurin’s production has been sadly unremarkable this year (31-341-1 receiving on 42 targets). Still, in his four previous seasons, he had 4,281 yards receiving and 9.0 yards per target: He’s a bona fide No. 1 WR.

And he’s trending in the right direction: Over the past three weeks, he has 216 yards on 26 targets and leads the Commanders with a 30% air share.

Last year, he had 14-175-1 receiving on 18 targets in two games against the Giants.

Marquise Brown (Cardinals) at Seahawks

• Cardinals: +7.5
• O/U: 44.5
• TT: 18.5

The Cardinals are significant underdogs who might be forced into a pass-heavy game state, and Brown is easily No. 1 on the team with 29-334-3 receiving and a 44% air share on 53 targets.

He was No. 1 in the league last week with 153 unrealized air yards; The eruption game will eventually happen.

The Seahawks are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (37.0 FPPG).

Christian Watson (Packers) at Broncos

• Packers: -1 
• O/U: 44.5
• TT: 22.75

Watson missed Weeks 1-3 with a hamstring injury and did little in Week 4 as he was eased back into action (46% snap rate, four targets, 2-25-1 receiving), but in Week 5 he looked like himself (84% snap rate, seven targets, 3-91-0 receiving).

Coming off the Week 6 bye, he should be all the way back.

Watson had an ignominious NFL debut last year when he dropped what would’ve been a 75-yard TD on the team’s first offensive snap. He paid the price for it with just 13 more targets for the next two months, but for the final eight weeks of the season, he emerged as a big-time playmaker with 31-523-7 receiving (10.1 yards per target) and 4-61-1 rushing.

The Broncos are No. 32 in defensive dropback EPA (0.296).

Gabe Davis (Bills) vs. Giants

• Bills: -8
• O/U: 41.5
• TT: 24.75

Ever since HC Sean McDermott — after the team’s Week 1 loss — implicitly called out Davis by saying that the team needed someone to step up behind No. 1 WR Stefon Diggs, he has put up numbers with an efficient 19-309-4 receiving on 26 targets.

Davis is unlikely ever to live up to the hype he carried with him into the 2022 campaign after his 8-201-4 receiving performance on 10 targets against the Chiefs in the Divisional Round the prior year — but he’s still an explosive playmaker with 9.4 yards per target for his career, and he’s attached to QB Josh Allen.

The Patriots are notably wounded in the secondary: CBs Christian Gonzalez (shoulder, IR), Jack Jones (hamstring, IR), and Marcus Jones (shoulder, IR) are all on the reserve list, and CB Jonathan Jones (knee) is uncertain to play given that he exited Week 6 early with an injury after missing Weeks 2-4 with an ankle issue.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 6 TEs

Mark Andrews (Ravens) vs. Lions

• Ravens: -3
• O/U: 42.5
• TT: 22.75

Andrews has been the No. 1 pass catcher in the Ravens' offense since his 2019 second-season breakout (last year, he was the No. 1 TE with a 23% target share), and in his five games this year, he has a steady 24-294-3 receiving on 34 targets. New offense, same Andrews. 

The Lions are without SS C.J. Gardner-Johnson (pectoral, IR).

Pat Freiermuth (Steelers) at Rams

• Steelers: +3
• O/U: 43.5
• TT: 20.25

Freiermuth (concussion) exited Week 4 early with a head injury and missed Week 5, but I expect him to return to action after the Week 6 bye.

The Steelers' offense has been terrible to start the year … but it could be better this week given the team’s extended time to prepare for this game and rework trouble spots in the scheme.

Freiermuth has done little this year (8-53-2 receiving, 13 targets), but last year, he was No. 2 on the team with 98 targets and 63 receptions.

The Rams are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (12.6 FPPG).

Luke Musgrave (Packers) at Broncos

• Packers: -1 
• O/U: 44.5
• TT: 22.75

Musgrave exited Week 4 early with a concussion, but in his four other games, he had a route rate higher than 70%. In his two most recent games, he saw 15 targets and had 12 receptions total: He’s a genuine part of the offense.

The Broncos are without SS Caden Sterns (knee, IR).