Giants at Commanders (-4.5) – 40.0 total
I’m putting this energy out into the universe now: we won’t have another tie. As funny as it would be, one of these teams will emerge victorious and shake up the playoff picture. The Giants have lost three of their last four as injuries continue to pile up, and a couple more skill players bowed out early on Sunday. Let’s start with the personnel concerns for New York.
Normally, I’d be worried about a nine-touch, 31% snap rate day for Saquon Barkley. But he entered the game with a neck injury, and Brian Daboll admitted to having a plan for the veteran RB. Likely, his idea was not to get his most-talented player beat up in a blowout loss with another divisional game on tap. Regardless, at least we don’t have to worry about Barkley's status heading into Week 15.
Chase Young should be making his season debut and bringing much-needed help to the Commanders’ defense. Heading into their bye, Washington was 17th in rushing EPA allowed over their last four games, after being second to start the season. Barkley required a few explosive plays to boost his yardage total, but his 16.1% target share kept his fantasy value afloat. Aside from last week, he’s run the third-most routes and has the second-most targets. He’s healthy and should resume his normal workload leaving Matt Breida and Gary Brightwell as emergency options only. But we’ve got other options in the passing game.
Most folks may want to turn to Richie James. He hit a season-high in snaps and targets against the Eagles. However, seven of his nine targets came in the second half when the Giants were down three scores. He’s also in the concussion protocol, so Jones will likely turn back to Isaiah Hodgins on the perimeter. Regardless, it’s good to know Daniel Jones has another option outside of Darius Slayton, with Daniel Bellinger potentially out again with a rib injury.
And speaking of Slayton, since taking on a full-time role in Week 10, his 2.29 YPRR ranks 14th among wide receivers. And Barkley (8) and Slayton (7) are first and second in targets when Jones gets pressured, per SportsInfoSolutions. Slayton is yet to record a red-zone target in his new role, but his overall target share (20.1%) locks him into a mid-range WR2 role for the playoffs.
At the same time, I don’t have the same questions about who to start for the Commanders. There’s no help coming for the Giants’ defense to change their outlook. If anything, it got worse with another injury. But Washington should know how Wink Martindale will deploy his blitz-happy defense against Taylor Heinicke.
The good news is Scott Turner has an answer for Heinicke to deal with pressure. They tried a similar approach in their previous meetup. Heinicke had a time to throw of less than 2.5 seconds on 48.9% of his attempts in Week 13, per PFF. He turned six of those throws into first downs. It’s ideal to see him comfortable with the adjustment. And with Jahan Dotson re-integrated into the offense, Heinicke’s viability as a streaming quarterback candidate starts to increase.
However, Washington’s passing rate continues to be a concern. Luckily, it hasn’t affected Terry McLaurin. He’s fourth in target share among all WRs since Heinicke took over. Their pass rate over expected did increase in Week 13 (to -10.0%), so Dotson works his way into flex territory for fantasy managers dealing with injuries. But let’s not forget about Brian Robinson. The big man with the big hat holds a commanding 65.2% of the backfield touches over the last two weeks and has matched Antonio Gibson in high-value touches from inside the 10-yard line. With Robinson’s targets picking up over the last two weeks, Robinson is a must-start in Week 15.
