Giants at Eagles
The theme of the playoffs so far has been rematches and divisional rivalries. We’ll get another of both in the Divisional Round as the Giants travel to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles. Philly rolled to a 48-22 victory in their first game versus the Giants this season, but they struggled to a six-point win in New York in Week 18. The Giants rested most of their key players in that contest, while Jalen Hurts played the entire game for the Eagles.
Even though that wasn’t the most impressive showing, it was an extremely important win for the Eagles. Not only did it secure the top spot in the NFC, but it was Hurts’ first game back in the lineup following a two-game absence.
Hurts emerged as a leading MVP candidate for the Eagles this season, and he was basically unstoppable in the team’s first 14 games. He averaged 248 passing yards with 22 passing touchdowns, and he added another 53.4 rushing yards per game with 13 scores on the ground. Add it all up and Hurts ranked fourth among quarterbacks in Expected Points Added per play (EPA/play) over that stretch.
Hurts’ health is one of the big question marks heading into the playoffs. He was officially removed from the team’s injury report, but he did not look like the same player in Week 18. He managed just 5.26 adjusted yards per attempt – his worst mark of the entire season – and he added just 13 yards on the ground.
On the other side, Daniel Jones is coming off arguably the best game of his career against the Vikings in the Wild Card round. He racked up 301 passing yards and two scores, and he added another 78 rushing yards. No QB in NFL history had previously had at least 300 passing yards, 70 rushing yards, and two passing TDs in a postseason contest.
That was a significantly easier matchup than Jones will face on Saturday, but Jones made major strides in his fourth NFL season. His emergence as a legit dual-threat option at the position helped cover up a lot of holes in the Giants’ offense, with Jones averaging 44.3 rushing yards per game. He also punched in seven touchdowns over the year, which was more than he had in his previous three seasons combined.
Jones led the Giants to the best against-the-spread record in the league this season, and they moved to 14-4 following their cover versus the Vikings last week. Part of that is due to the team’s coaching staff, which has proven itself to be one of the best in football. This team has performed above its talent level all season, and Brian Daboll and Wink Martindale have been a big reason why.
Can the Giants put together another cover on Saturday? There are a few things working in their favor. For starters, divisional games in the postseason have historically favored the underdog. Underdogs have gone 16-11-1 ATS in divisional playoff matchups since 2005, and they’re 5-3 when getting at least a touchdown. We saw the Ravens and Dolphins cover as large divisional dogs last weekend, despite both teams being without their starting QB.
Additionally, big favorites have historically struggled to cover following a first-round bye. Teams have gone just 15-25-1 ATS when favored by at least a touchdown following a bye. The Eagles also struggled to cover as large favorites in general this season, posting a record of just 1-4 ATS when favored by more than a touchdown.
Add it all up, and I think the Giants have enough magic left in them for one more cover. I’m not sure if they can actually win this matchup, but they can hopefully keep it close.
