Welcome to High-Value Facts and Stacks!
In this piece, I’ll outline three high-value stacks for DFS and provide some important stats that separate them from the rest of the pack.
Typically, the goal here will be to discuss one popular option, one less popular option and one value option. This way, you can find the right stack to focus on for a wide array of situations!
All images and model data for both DraftKings and FanDuel are sourced from Paydirtdfs.com, with utilization and team-based data from the Utilization Tools here at Fantasy Life.
Popular option: San Francisco 49ers
Facts:
- The 49ers are averaging 29.23 points per game and have the second-highest touchdown per drive percentage in the league at 33% (behind only Miami at 34%).
- Fueling that scoring engine is Brock Purdy, who has a league-best 9.9 yards per attempt to go with a pass completion rate of 70.2%, the best mark in the league for ay QB averaging more than 30 dropbacks per game.
- The trio of Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle take up most of the target share for the 49ers (combining for 62% of the teams targets) and are one of the few trios in the league that average over 2% target per route run (TPRR).
Stack info (DraftKings)
Salary and projections:
- Combo 1 (Purdy/Samuel/Aiyuk): This lineup comes at a premium cost of $21,700, reflecting its higher Median score of 51.72, which suggests a strong average performance level.
- Combo 2 (Purdy/Samuel/Kittle): With a slightly reduced salary of $20,300, it presents a Median score of 48.98. The drop in price comes with a small sacrifice in the expected average performance.
- Combo 3 (Purdy/Aiyuk/Kittle): The most affordable option at $19,800, it displays a Median score of 47.28, offering a modest reduction in projected performance while providing cost savings.
People are finally coming around to Purdy for MVP, and it’s hard to argue with his stats and the 49ers' success as a smoking gun for his value. Granted, this offense is perfectly tailored to his skill set, and it’s the best roster in the league, but from a fantasy standpoint, we don’t really care about those things. This team continues to offer major upside, even if the target tree is a bit wide, so we need to continue to focus on them in DFS.
Dec 10, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) throws a pass against the Seattle Seahawks in the first quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
Top Finish and High Scoring Potential
- Combo 1 (Purdy/Samuel/Aiyuk):
- Top 5 Finish: The likelihood is high at 43.2%, indicating a strong chance of landing among the top performers.
- 3x% Return: With a 15.2% rate, this combination has the highest potential for tripling the investment, complementing its high Median score.
- Combo 2 (Purdy/Samuel/Kittle):
- Top 5 Finish: Holds a 34.3% chance, slightly less than Combo 1 but still indicating a significant probability of a top-tier finish.
- 3x% Return: The chance here is substantial at 16%, which is actually higher than Combo 1 despite a lower Median, suggesting a more efficient cost-to-performance ratio.
- Combo 3 (Purdy/Aiyuk/Kittle):
- Top 5 Finish: At 25.2%, the probability for a high finish dips further, which aligns with the lowest Median score of the three.
- 3x% Return: The potential for tripling the salary is 13.5%, the lowest among the combinations but still a respectable figure given the lowest cost.
Combo 1: Premium Combination
This is the standout choice for those prioritizing a strong average output, as indicated by the highest Median score. It offers a significant chance for a top-five finish and has a respectable rate for a 3x return, making it well-suited for those looking to invest heavily in a potent combo.
Combo 2: Balanced Medians
This combination presents an intriguing scenario; it has a slightly lower Median and Top 5 Finish chance than Combo 1 but offers a better 3x% Return. This positions it as an optimal pick for those seeking value and performance balance.
Combo 3: Value with Upside
As the most cost-effective selection, it may appeal to those who wish to allocate their budget across various players. Despite the lower Median and Top 5 Finish potential, its 3x% Return remains competitive, signaling it as a viable option for a balanced strategy.
Contrarian Option: Miami Dolphins
Facts:
- Though it was a bit of a hot call at the time, Tyreek Hill has said his goal was to surpass 2,000 receiving yards this year. He sits at 1,557 yards coming into week 15, and with a yards per target of 15.9, he should only need 28 more targets to reach that lofty goal.
- The Dolphins target tree is one of the skinniest in the league, with only Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle demanding any consistent share of work. The third in line for the Dolphins is Durham Smythe, and he has just six total targets over the last month.
- The Dolphins have been very balanced over the entire year, with a yearly DBOE (dropback over expectation) of just 2% and no weeks worse than -7%, giving them a strong passing floor but relatively low ceiling unless the game script is extreme.
Stack info (DraftKings)
Salary and projections:
- Combo 1 (Tagovailoa/Hill/Waddle): At the highest salary of $25,200, this combination boasts a Median score of 51.83 and leads with a Ceiling of 64.79, suggesting the greatest potential for top performance in the lineup.
- Combo 2 (Tagovailoa/Hill/Smythe): This set is priced at $20,300 and offers a slightly lower Median score of 41.34. The Ceiling, at 51.68, indicates a reduced but still strong potential compared to Combo 1.
- Combo 3 (Tagovailoa/Waddle/Smythe): The most cost-effective choice at $17,800, it presents a Median score of 34.28 with the lowest Ceiling at 42.85, signaling a conservative estimate for peak performance.
It’s very clear that the Dolphins have a vested interest in Tyreek pushing for 2,000-plus yards this year, as evidenced by him coming back in the game last week with a slight ankle injury. He’s in must-play territory to finish out the year as they feed him the ball for the milestone.
Nov 19, 2023; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill (10) runs with the ball against the Las Vegas Raiders during the first half at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Top Finish and High-Scoring Potential
- Combo 1 (Tagovailoa/Hill/Waddle):
- Top Finish: With a 13.5% chance, this combination is the most likely to achieve the highest rank, reflecting its strong overall potential.
- 60+% Potential: At 26.9%, it underscores a significant likelihood of hitting high-scoring games, aligning with its high Ceiling.
- Combo 2 (Tagovailoa/Hill/Smythe):
- Top Finish: Holding a 0.9% chance, it shows a considerably lower potential for reaching the very top compared to Combo 1.
- 60+% Potential: The chance drops to 4.3%, but it still maintains a respectable potential for high-scoring games.
- Combo 3 (Tagovailoa/Waddle/Smythe):
- Top Finish: With virtually no chance (0.00%), this combination is not expected to secure the top finish, which correlates with its lowest Ceiling.
- 60+% Potential: A minimal 0.1% probability, indicating very low expectations for achieving high-scoring outcomes.
Combo 1: Best choice for Ceiling
This is the premium option for those who are targeting the highest fantasy output. The high Ceiling and substantial chances for a Top Finish and hitting 60+% in fantasy points make it the most desirable for those willing to invest more.
Combo 2: Balanced with Upside
Offering a balance between investment and potential, this combination is a strategic choice for those looking to save some budget while still aiming for a respectable performance.
Combo 3: Risky Large Field Option
As the most affordable selection, it is suited for players looking to maximize value across their lineup. However, the significantly lower Ceiling and minimal chances for top finishes and high-scoring games suggest it's a less favorable option for those seeking high points.
Value option: Los Angeles Rams
Facts:
- It may not seem like it, but the Rams have a top-10 scoring offense at 23 points per game, and are doing so with mostly middling expectations in terms of touchdown per drive (22%), total plays (30.28 per game) and plays inside the 5-yard line (2.31 per game).
- It’s also fair to say that the offensive firepower has been relatively lacking with Cooper Kupp having been unable to perform after missing games with a hamstring injury. He’s averaging just 12.6 fantasy points per game while Puka Nacua averages 17.1 (on a 29% target share)
- The matchup with the Commanders is fantastic for the Rams passing offense, as evidenced by their implied team total of 28.5 points (a full touchdown above their season average). The Commanders have given up a top-10 fantasy performance to opposing QBs and WR1s in nearly 90% of the games they have played this year.
Stack info (DraftKings)
Salary and projections:
- Combo 1 (Stafford/Nacua/Kupp): At a high salary of $21,100, this combination stands out with a Median score of 51.27. It's the costliest option but reflects its value with the potential for a strong average performance.
- Combo 2 (Stafford/Nacua/Higbee): More moderately priced at $16,900, the Median score drops to 42.23. The lower salary correlates with a decrease in expected median output.
- Combo 3 (Stafford/Kupp/Higbee): With the lowest salary of $17,400, it presents a Median score of 41.21. This offers the most significant savings but, as expected, comes with the lowest Median score.
There’s not a clear lean either way between Nacua and Kupp, but this year Nacua has clearly been the more explosive WR between the two if you need a tiebreaker. Either way, there’s a lot of value in playing one over the other and pairing with Higbee as a salary saver this week.
Dec 10, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp (10) celebrates with wide receiver Puka Nacua (17) after scoring a second quarter touchdown during the at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Finish percentiles
- Combo 1 (Stafford/Nacua/Kupp):
- Top Finish: The probability is an impressive 12.5%, indicating a strong likelihood of clinching the highest rank among the three.
- 3x% Return: With a 16% rate, it also leads in potential for a high return on investment, matching its high Median score.
- Combo 2 (Stafford/Nacua/Higbee):
- Top Finish: Holds a minimal 1.2% chance, significantly lower than Combo 1, showcasing the trade-off for its lower cost.
- 3x% Return: At 17.9%, it surprisingly exceeds Combo 1, suggesting a more efficient cost-to-performance ratio despite a lower Median score.
- Combo 3 (Stafford/Kupp/Higbee):
- Top Finish: The likelihood for the top finish is the least at 0.4%, reflecting its status as the underdog for top-tier finishes.
- 3x% Return: At 12.1%, it offers a lower chance for tripling the salary investment compared to the other two combos.
