How quickly things can change in the NFL.

This time last year, the Texans were coming off their third consecutive season with four or fewer wins, boasted bottom-six scoring units on both sides of the football, and had back-to-back 30th-place finishes in overall point differential. In short, Houston sucked!

And then suddenly, they didn't. That's what happens when a team manages to land the offensive and defensive rookie of the year in the same draft. The Texans' 10-7 division-winning regular season included a dominant 45-14 Wild Card win over the Browns before things fell apart the following week in Baltimore.

Expectations in Houston haven't been this high in quite some time, especially after the front office made quite a few big moves this offseason. Here's a quick overview of all the Texans' fantasy-relevant coaching staff and major offseason moves (QB/RB/WR/TE) to this point:

  • Head coach: DeMeco Ryans (10-7 in his first season in Houston in 2023)
  • Offensive coordinator: Bobby Slowik (61.4% pass rate in his first year with the Texans in 2023, which was 12th highest in the league)
  • Offseason arrivals: WR Stefon Diggs (acquired from Bills), RB Joe Mixon (acquired from Bengals), and WR Ben Skowronek (acquired from Rams)
  • Offseason departures: RB Devin Singletary (Giants) and TE Eric Saubert (49ers)
  • Fantasy-relevant draft picks: Ohio State TE Cade Stover (4.123), Louisville RB Jawhar Jordan (6.205)
  • Reigning Pro Football Focus (PFF) offensive line rank and returning starters: No. 15, 3/5

Add in second-round rookie OL Blake Fister out of Notre Dame, and it's fair to say that the Texans managed to improve on all three levels of their offense this offseason. Of course, the most important position didn't need any improvement after an incredible 2023 campaign.

Houston Texans Fantasy Football Outlook: Position by Position

Quarterback

You already know that Stroud had a special rookie season, but how good was it really?

Well, it's at least somewhat surprising to see that some of his advanced metrics last year fell outside of the league's top 10 signal-callers. Here's how Stroud ranked among 32 QBs with 300-plus dropbacks in 2023:

  • EPA per dropback: +0.124 (No. 13)
  • Completion percentage over expected (CPOE): +0.2% (No. 19)
  • PFF pass grade: 79.4 (No. 14)
  • Passer rating: 100.8 (No. 6)
  • Yards per attempt (YPA): 8.2 (No. 3)

The fantasy results were certainly great relative to his non-existent preseason ADP, but Stroud's average of 18.3 fantasy points per game (PPG) was good enough to be the QB8, just below the PPG of guys like Jordan Love, Kirk Cousins, and Brock Purdy. Plus, there were even some opportunities left on the table despite plenty of dazzling throws as a rookie.

Of course, the NFL's reigning 13th-ranked scoring offense didn't exactly offer the world's best supporting cast for Stroud in Year 1. Sure, Nico Collins is a f*cking stud, but Tank Dell was lost for the season in Week 12, which left old man Robert Woods and career backup Noah Brown behind Collins for the remainder of the season.

On top of that, PFF's reigning 19th-ranked offensive line in pass-blocking grade along with the league's fourth-worst rush offense in terms of yards per carry certainly didn't help. The 2023 NFL Draft's No. 2 overall pick sure didn't inherit the world's greatest offensive environment on the whole.

C.J. Stroud

Dec 31, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) attempts a pass during the third quarter against the Tennessee Titans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

And that's what makes 2024 so exciting. The addition of Diggs from Buffalo gives Stroud the same sort of early-career improvement potential that has helped so many QBs make a mega leap. Much in the same way that Kyler Murray (DeAndre Hopkins), Joe Burrow (Ja'Marr Chase), and Jalen Hurts (A.J. Brown) benefited from upgrades at WR, don't underestimate the potential for what is now one of the best WR rooms in the NFL to possibly help Stroud take Houston's offense to another stratosphere in 2024.

Don't get it twisted: Stroud just tied for the league-high in 300-plus yard passing games with six despite having missed two games, so things were already going pretty damn fine before the Texans added Diggs to the equation. Still, it's exactly this that makes it a bit tough to get behind Stroud's current ADP as the QB6 (pick No. 58.6 overall). He and Patrick Mahomes are the only QBs currently being drafted inside the top-80 overall picks who didn't rack up at least 28% of their 2023 fantasy production on the ground in 2023.

Bottom line: Stroud is the man as a passer, but in fantasy football land, that doesn't mean as much in today's game when the QB landscape is littered with dual-threat beasts. Stroud's current positional ADP isn't that crazy, but realize that there are QBs far cheaper than Stroud who can produce similarly in 2024.

Among others, Burrow, Jared Goff, and Matthew Stafford are some pocket passers who share similar upside to Stroud, not to mention the ultra-mobile alien QBs. This is easily the most expensive passing game to stack in all of fantasy football, so Stroud and company would need to exceed their already-extremely high expectations to pay off their current ADPs.

Running Back

Inefficiency and off-field issues have distracted from the fact that Mixon has been one of the league's more consistent fantasy producers at RB since having entered the league back in 2017. Here's how Mixon has ranked in PPR PPG each season:

  • 2017: 10.1 (RB28)
  • 2018: 17.4 (RB9)
  • 2019: 14.1 (RB20)
  • 2020: 16.6 (RB9)
  • 2021: 18.0 (RB7)
  • 2022: 17.1 (RB6)
  • 2023: 15.7 (RB11)

Mixon is the only RB who's finished as a top 12 in PPR PPG in each of the past three seasons. Lots of volume in a high-scoring offense tends to make up for meh yards per carry numbers rather quickly in fantasy land, and that's exactly what he saw in Cincinnati.

While the original trade to Houston didn't seem like that big of a deal considering that Mixon only cost the Texans a seventh-round pick, the ensuing contract extension certainly raised some eyebrows. Overall, Mixon's three-year, $27 million contract extension includes $13 million guaranteed, which is more than what guys like Josh Jacobs ($12.5 million), Tony Pollard ($10.5 million) and Derrick Henry ($9 million) managed on their respective new deals.

Turning 28 years old in July, Mixon isn't quite yet at the age where we've historically seen a steep decline from RBs in fantasy land, and it sure seems like the Texans plan on feeding him the rock after they let Singletary walk in free agency.

Joe Mixon

Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon (28) eyes the end zone on a run in the first quarter during a Week 18 NFL football game between the Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday, Jan. 7, 2024, at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati. Photo Credit: Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

The ex-Bengals featured back could once again finish as a top-12 RB in PPR PPG for a fourth straight year if Houston decides to feature him in a similar manner to how they featured Singletary down the stretch in 2023. After Pierce suffered a sprained ankle in Week 9, Singletary saw some heavy volume over the second half of the season. Here are his volume metrics from Weeks 9 through 18 last year:

  • Total touches: 190 (No. 4 among all RBs)
  • Expected PPR points: 146.4 (RB8)
  • Snaps: 69%
  • Routes: 52%

The Texans were the 12th-most willing offense to hand their RB a snap rate north of 80% last season. They "only" ranked 14th in expected backfield PPR PPG, but that's due in large part to just 15 total RB carries inside the five-yard line. However, that figure could spike in a hurry if Mixon and the upgraded offensive line prove efficient, and the Texans could join the Lions (27), 49ers (26) and Dolphins (25) as a team more willing to run near the goal line.

Early Fantasy Life Projections have Mixon finishing as a top-eight RB in both PPR and 0.5 PPR scoring largely due to his projected volume. Only Christian McCaffrey (324 combined carries and targets), Breece Hall (322), Bijan Robinson (305), Jonathan Taylor (305), and Saquon Barkley (297) are currently projected to see more total usage than Mixon (283).

And then there's Dameon Pierce, who started the first seven games of last season but never received the same three-down opportunity as Singletary. While he was electric as a rookie in 2022, Pierce never saw even 60% of the snaps in a game last year. In fact, Houston almost entirely phased him out of the offense down the stretch, as Pierce received just three total touches during the team's final three games. The kick return TD was cool and all, but just realize that we're talking about Next Gen Stat's third-worst RB in rushing yards over expected per attempt as well as the league's least-efficient RB in raw yards per carry (2.9).

Bottom line: Mixon doesn't profile as a typical dead zone RB because he's being drafted in Round 6 (RB15 ADP, pick No. 61 overall) instead of Round 3 and because concerns about him just being an inefficient volume play are mitigated by the potential for a ton of TD opportunities on this ascending Texans offense.

I'm a fan of going after one of James Cook, Rachaad White, or Mixon in their ADP range, especially if I already have at least three WRs and perhaps an elite QB and/or TE. Pierce's path to high-end success is harder to see and would probably need to involve a trade. After all, Houston was even content to play Ogunbowale ahead of him on pass downs last season. That said, Pierce is still a fine late-round dart throw at his current ADP of RB60 (pick No. 193.4 overall).

Wide Receiver

  • WR1: Nico Collins (Fantasy Life consensus rank: WR15)
  • WR2: Stefon Diggs (WR23)
  • WR3: Tank Dell (WR25)
  • WR4: Noah Brown
  • WR5: John Metchie
  • WR6: Robert Woods
  • WR7: Ben Skowronek

Whoa, buddy. Without the benefit of hindsight, most looked at this WR room a season ago and rightfully concluded that it was a bottom-five unit in the NFL. Just a short year later, we're looking at arguably the best WR room in the league.

Collins is a big, fast man who just averaged the second-most yards per target (11.9) in a single season since the metric first started being tracked in 1992 (min. 100 targets). He joined Tyreek Hill, Cooper Kupp, and Julio Jones as the only three WRs who have averaged 3.0 or more yards per route run in a single season over the past decade.

As for the new addition, here’s to hoping that Diggs’s final 10 games in Buffalo were more of a fugazi and less of a sign of things to come. The 30-year-old veteran had respectable receiving lines of 127-1535-8, 103-1225-10, 108-1429-11, and 107-1183-8 receiving lines during his four seasons in Buffalo. He should be a massive upgrade over the ancillary WRs from 2023 like Robert Woods and Noah Brown.

And finally, there's Dell, who was absolutely electric as a rookie. In fact, he actually tied Collins in total targets (52) in seven games together last year where both played at least half of the offensive snaps. Dell (36%) also joined Collins (40%) among the league's top-eight WRs in percentage of games finished as a weekly top-12 WR in 0.5 PPR.

Hell, Noah Brown even produced three top-15 weekly finishes in 0.5 PPR when he was pushed into the starting lineup, which was more than guys like D.K. Metcalf, Drake London, and Garrett Wilson could muster in 2023. Apparently QB play matters. Throw in Stroud's praise of former second-round pick John Metchie and the addition of versatile WR/FB Ben Skowronek, and this Houston WR room sure looks to be deserving of the hype heading into the 2024 season.

Nico Collins

Dec 31, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans wide receiver Nico Collins (12) in action during the game against the Tennessee Titans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

There's only one problem in fantasy land: NFL laws prohibit more than one football from being used on any given play. Fantasy Life projections have Collins and Diggs both seeing 115 targets this year with Dell playing third banana with 102 targets…but with 12 rush attempts! That's hardly terrible opportunity relative to some other WRs, but it's low enough to keep all three of the Texans' WRs outside of the top 25 projected WRs in total PPR points.

The primary issue is the ADP cost associated, not the players involved. Here are the top five most expensive QB/WR1/WR2/WR3 stacks on Underdog Fantasy in terms of average overall ADP at the moment:

  1. Texans (36 average ADP)
  2. Chiefs (61)
  3. Bears (63)
  4. Bengals (69)
  5. Eagles (73)

Bottom line: I'm most inclined to buy into Collins (WR14 ADP, pick No. 20 overall) and Dell (WR26 ADP, pick No. 36.4 overall) over Diggs (WR21 ADP, pick No. 28.8 overall). At this point in his career, Diggs profiles as the least efficient WR of the group despite probably being set for similar volume.

The prices on Collins and Dell are admittedly steep, but nothing about their productive 2023 campaigns exactly suggested that they're flukes. I'm riding with the young guns on one of the best rising passing attacks in the NFL. Brown is also worth mentioning as a literal last-round dart throw in best ball drafts due to his proven potential to provide spike weeks if/when one of the three starting WRs were to miss time.

Tight End

The ex-Cowboys TE looked right at home during his first season in Houston, having finished as the TE11 in PPR PPG in 2023 with some serious boom weeks. Overall, Schultz's five top-six weekly finishes in 0.5 PPR scoring were tied for the fifth-highest mark at the TE position. Only Sam LaPorta (8), George Kittle (7), Travis Kelce (7), and T.J. Hockenson (7) had more top-six TE finishes last year.

However, Schultz's involvement in the offense wasn't all that consistent when all the WRs was healthy. Here are the target totals in the seven games that both Collins and Dell both played 50% or more snaps:

  • Tank Dell (52)
  • Nico Collins (52)
  • Dalton Schultz (31)
  • Robert Woods (30)
  • Devin Singletary (17)
  • Noah Brown (10)
Dalton Schultz

Jan 13, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans tight end Dalton Schultz (86) scores a touchdown during the second quarter in a 2024 AFC wild card game at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

It's not a great sign that Schultz went from 6.3 targets per game to just 4.9 when the Texans' offense was fully healthy. The difference in PPR PPG (10.6 vs. 9.5) wasn't too drastic, but it was enough to reflect the difference between a borderline TE1 and someone who needs to be in fantasy lineups even if there's a fire.

Final fun fact: Brevin Jordan was one of only three TEs who hit 20-plus miles per hour as a ball-carrier last season. I continue to struggle to cut the 23-year-old talent in dynasty land. However, we shouldn't expect Jordan to provide more than the occasional chunk play after Houston gave Schultz a three-year, $36 million extension this offseason.

Bottom line: Schultz has the potential to (again) flirt with triple-digit targets if he plays all 17 games, but that won't be easy if the Texans' top three WRs also all get a hall pass from the Injury Gods.

Ultimately, Schultz doesn't carry the sort of fantasy-breaking upside to warrant being ranked as a top-12 TE for 2024, but he and Pat Freiermuth stand out as probably the last two options at the position that fantasy drafters would feel at least somewhat okay with as a reliable starter each week.

Houston Texans 2024 Season Prediction

This offseason, the Texans also used two of their top three top-80 picks on their secondary and acquired difference-makers on their front seven like former Vikings EDGE Danielle Hunter as well as former Titans EDGE Denico Autry and LB Azeez Al-Shaair. It's fair to say that the NFL's reigning 15th-ranked offense and 14th-ranked defense in EPA per play are poised to take some serious steps forward in 2024.

While a 7-3 record in one-score games does imply some regression in close contests, the offseason additions combined with potential leaps from the team's plethora of young studs has Houston shaping up as one of the better-set rosters for the foreseeable future. I'm buying the hype and taking the over on 9.5 wins for the Texans, as they look to be one of the scarier-looking young contenders in the AFC heading into 2024.

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