How Did We Get Here? Examining the 49ers and Chiefs Paths to Super Bowl 58.
On the one hand, next Sunday’s matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers isn’t exactly surprising. These were the No. 1 and No. 4 teams in terms of preseason Super Bowl odds after all.
On the other, both squads faced their fair share of trials and tribulations throughout their grueling runs to the title. From injuries, to up-and-down performances: The Chiefs and 49ers have each been through a lot over the past 21 weeks.
With this in mind: Let’s break down some of these highs and lows from each team to better fully appreciate what figures to be an awesome Super Bowl showdown. We’ll feature the following five categories to achieve this goal:
- Highest High and Lowest Low
- The Quarterback
- Narrative if they Win
- Narrative if they Lose
As always: It’s a great day to be great…
Highest High and Lowest Low
Kansas City Chiefs
- High: Right now
- Low: Two-game losing streak in Weeks 13-14 vs. Packers and Bills
Obviously playoff success will always trump any regular season momentum, but the Chiefs are truly peaking right this second on both offense and defense.
While still really good, this was easily the least dominant Chiefs team of the Patrick Mahomes era during the regular season:
Chiefs regular season points differential 2018-2023
- 2023: +77 (6th)
- 2022: +127 (4th)
- 2021: +116 (5th)
- 2020: +111 (6th)
- 2019: +143 (4th)
- 2018: +144 (2nd)
And yet, the group has found a way to peak at the right time in consecutive TOUGH matchups against the Dolphins, Bills and Ravens. The below chart denotes their EPA per play on both sides of the football per week. Higher is better for the offense (blue), and lower for the defense (orange).
This is the first stretch since Weeks 2-5 that the offense posted a positive EPA per play in three consecutive games, while only the Josh Allen and Jordan Love experiences have been capable of giving the defense any sort of real problems pretty much all season long.
Don’t get it twisted: This offense is still hardly looking like their typically ELITE self. The Chiefs current nine-game stretch with fewer than 30 points marks the first time since 2018 that they have gone more than *three* games under that mark.
This relative offensive ineptitude hasn’t hurt too much thanks to consistent excellence from the league’s fifth-ranked defense in EPA allowed per play on defense; just realize this version of the Chiefs has made a habit of winning in 12-round WARS as opposed to previous editions that specialized in quick knockouts.
San Francisco 49ers
- High: Blowing out the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football in Week 5
- Low: Three-game losing streak in Weeks 6-8 without Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams
This isn’t meant to disrespect what Brock Purdy and company have accomplished over the last two weeks. All the credit in the world to the second-year QB for engineering back-to-back comeback wins; his consistent off-script excellence against the Lions in particular deserves all kinds of praise.
Still, this team as a whole — ESPECIALLY the defense — were objectively playing at a different level to start the season. Here’s that same EPA per play chart from the Chiefs section, notice how the blue was far higher in the early parts of the year, and the orange far lower.
The offense has performed pretty awesome all season other than during their infamous three-game stretch with just 17 points in Weeks 6 to 8 with both Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams sidelined with injuries.
A similar sentiment was true for the defense until the last two weeks. Jordan Love and Jared Goff have led consecutive plus offensive performances against this much-heralded defense for the first time since Kirk Cousins and Joe Burrow managed to do so in Weeks 7 and 8.
So yeah: Not exactly limping to the finish line, but at their best the 49ers proved capable of absolutely THRIVING on both sides of the football against some truly solid opponents. They’re still doing enough to get by these days — that’s why they’re in the f*cking Super Bowl after all — but it’s fair to neither the offense nor defense is exactly peaking at the moment.
The Quarterback
Kansas City Chiefs
We’ve seen Mahomes take a few different forms during his six seasons as the Chiefs’ starting QB. The OG 2018 world-beater regularly attempted to take the defense’s head off on any given play via consistent downfield shots to Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, but the two-time MVP has assumed more of a point guard role in recent seasons without the assurance of consistent high-end WR play.
Consider: Mahomes (5.9) was the only QB to NOT post an average target depth north of 9.0 yards on Championship Sunday. His average target depth on the season has never been lower:
- 2023: 6.9
- 2022: 7.5
- 2021: 7.4
- 2020: 8.5
- 2019: 8.5
- 2018: 9.7
Only Bengals QBs Joe Burrow (6.9) and Jake Browning (6.6) also finished with an aDOT south of seven yards this season.
You won’t go broke taking a profit: There’s nothing wrong with “dinking and dunking” down the field, particularly against a TOUGH Ravens defense. Still, last Sunday’s passing chart demonstrates the reality that Mahomes isn’t exactly making a habit of testing the defense’s backbone.
While this newfound lower aDOT has knocked a few yards off Mahomes’ yards per attempt, his completion rate has soared. The ceiling hasn’t been quite as high – but we also haven’t seen this group helplessly crater like they did in their 2020-21 Super Bowl loss to the Buccaneers.
Only Josh Allen has been better at not letting pressures get converted into sacks this season: Mahomes has consistently kept this offense on schedule and saves the Superman act for when it’s really needed.
San Francisco 49ers
Talking Purdy is like talking politics.
Supporters can simply point to our most trusted efficiency metrics that paint him as a legit top-five QB in the league.
Yards per attempt (9.3, No. 1) and passer rating (109.6, No. 1) tell the same story: Purdy has the numbers of the game’s best QB.
Critics can lean on the reality that this offense is absolutely LOADED at essentially every position. Purdy probably has the position’s best combination of Jimmy’s and Joe’s as well as X’s and O’s.
The truth about Purdy (like a lot of things) probably lies somewhere in the middle. How anyone can maintain he’s somehow not a REALLY good QB is insanity, but I also understand not crowning him ahead of guys in far less cozy offensive situations like Mahomes, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson.
At the end of the day, the Shanahan-Purdy pairing has produced legit S-tier results: The 49ers rank first in EPA per play (+0.141), yards per play (6.3) and TD drive percentage (32%) since he took over in Week 13 of 2022.
Narrative if they Win
Kansas City Chiefs
- Mahomes is the GOAT.
We’d get some deserved “In Spags we trust” love as well, but at the end of the day the QB tends to soak up most of the praise for better or worse.
The career start here truly has been incredible. Mahomes’ only three career playoff losses:
- 2018 AFC Championship vs. Patriots (37-31): If only Dee Ford wasn’t offsides.
- 2020 Super Bowl vs. Bucs (31-9): Obviously wasn’t close, but the Chiefs did beat this same squad in Tampa Bay 27-24 back in Week 12.
- 2021 AFC Championship vs. Bengals (27-24): Kansas City had a 21-10 halftime lead that was one yard away from being even bigger. Mahomes and company could only muster three points over the next two quarters and turned the ball over on their only overtime drive.
Another ring would give Mahomes his third, placing him on a short list with Troy Aikman (3), Terry Bradshaw (4), Joe Montana (4) and Tom Brady (7). Throw in the statistical advantage that Mahomes has over Brady at this point in their careers, and it’d be hard to watch ESPN on Monday without seeing the GOAT conversation thrown around.
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San Francisco 49ers
- The Purdy doubters couldn’t have been more wrong.
Purdy has come out on the winning side of duels with Jared Goff, Jordan Love, Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts and Matthew Stafford among others, but his relatively down performances in losing matchups with Kirk Cousins, Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson has presented a bit of a “frontrunner” label.
Of course, winning tends to be the only thing that matters at the end of the day. Look no further than Purdy drawing unironic Joe Montana comps following his game-winning drive against the Packers in the Divisional Round, even if the performance otherwise featured far more downs than ups.
A massive performance from Christian McCaffrey or Deebo Samuel could perhaps change this narrative, but I tend to think that many would still find a way to praise Purdy for a low-volume performance with some sort of “did enough to get the win” praise.
And hey — for 49ers fans, hell yeah! That’s really all that matters, but a victory next Sunday also probably doesn’t need to be vindication that Purdy should have been league MVP all along. Cool? Cool.
Narrative if they Lose
Kansas City Chiefs
- The Chiefs finally got exposed for not giving Mahomes enough help.
Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice have largely been the only source of consistent production in this passing game all season long. Shoutout to Isiah Pacheco for making plenty of good things happen on the ground, but there’s a reason why the Chiefs ranked just 13th in that aforementioned supporting cast ranking.
It would take mind-numbingly bad mental mistakes to change this. Whether it be the offensive line not providing ample time, WRs not creating enough separation, or defense failing in a big moment against a tough challenge: It’s tough to see an L being overly blamed on Mahomes from rational human beings.
Then again, many hold LeBron’s NBA Finals record against him in the GOAT conversation because, apparently, it would have been better if he had lost in the first round instead. Sigh.
San Francisco 49ers
- Purdy is who we thought he was.
On the other side of the coin, Purdy figures to draw the brunt of the blame from critics due to the perceived notion that he has all the help he needs already.
Sure, an ill-timed drop or porous defensive performance could be highlighted, but weekly supporting cast and coaching staff praise will be thrown right back into the second-year QB’s face if he struggles to consistently move the ball through the air against this TOUGH Chiefs secondary.
