Should we be drafting more WRs?
WRs are flying off the board in best ball drafts this summer on Underdog Fantasy. After a substantial rise in value last year, their average draft positions (ADPs) are climbing again in 2023 drafts while RBs are slipping down boards.
- The top-60 WRs are going 4.2 picks sooner on average
- The top-60 RBs are going 4.4 picks later on average
Another way to think about this is by comparing Underdog ADPs to non-best ball formats using the Fantasy Life ADP Tool. Underdog drafters are handily selecting more WRs over the first 10 rounds (120 overall picks):
- Underdog: 55
- NFFC: 47
- RealTime Fantasy Sports: 43
- Yahoo!: 40
The scoring format factors into ADP, as RealTime and Yahoo! only require two starting WRs and one flex compared to three WRs and one flex on Underdog. However, The NFFC requires three starting WRs and a flex.
Interestingly, all these sites are full-point PPR leagues except for Underdog, which is half-PPR, as WRs typically score more points in PPR formats.
So what in the world is going on here? Are Underdog drafters too bullish on WRs, or are drafters on other platforms underestimating the value of WRs?
In order to answer these questions, I decided to turn to the data to see how valuable WRs have been in relation to RBs and TEs dating back to 2011.
Methodology
I analyzed the top-120 finishers across RBs, WRs, and TEs for each season since 2011 in PPR, half PPR, and standard scoring formats. Think of it as an overall scoring breakdown excluding QBs.
I chose total points over points per game (PPG) because injuries are part of the game at the end of the day. Of course, other factors are at play as well since starting RBs are more likely to share time than starting WRs. However, in cases where PPG changes the complexion of the top-120 finishers, they receive a callout.
The top-120 finishers break down into five buckets:
- No. 1 to 12
- No. 13 to 24
- No. 25 to 36
- No. 37 to 72
- No. 73 to 120
PPR Leagues
To put it bluntly, WRs have dominated PPR scoring formats over the last 12 seasons. They lead the way in scoring across every bucket of our top-120 fantasy finishers.
When switching to a PPG view of this data, RBs make the No. 1 to 12 bucket a near tie at 47% vs. 48% for WRs. However, the rest of the buckets don’t change.
If thinking about pure ceiling outcomes and isolating the top-three finishers, RBs take the lead 67% to 33%.
Takeaways
- We should be drafting more WRs early and often in PPR formats.
- We still want to take swings on RBs thanks to their immense ceilings, but these RBs likely need to be pass-catchers.
- Anchor RB (a.k.a. Hero RB) and Zero RB builds are in play.
Half-PPR Leagues
We see RBs claim a slight advantage over WRs for top-12 finishes in half-PPR scoring. However, WRs once again dominate the rest of the way.
From a PPG perspective, RBs strengthen their edge to 58% vs. 39% and make things slightly closer in the No. 25 to 36 range (44% vs. 48%), but the other buckets don’t change.
When isolating the top-three finishes, RBs distance themselves from WRs by a large margin (81% vs. 19%).
Takeaways
- Underdog drafters are onto something by taking so many WRs in the first 10 rounds, and the strategy can work in redraft as well beyond just best ball formats.
- RBs are more likely to hit the high-ceiling outcomes, meaning that Underdog drafters might be slightly overconfident in passing on top-12 RBs.
- Anchor RB builds are in play, and taking two RBs in the first three rounds is also a viable option.
Standard Leagues
Running backs gain a significant edge in top-12 and top-24 finishes in non-PPR scoring formats that award zero points for receptions, which makes sense. However, from No. 25 to 120, WRs still dominate.
When viewing this data from a PPG perspective, RBs extend their lead over WRs in top-12 finishes (73% vs. 25%), but the other buckets don’t significantly change.
It's difficult for WRs to manage a top-three finish in standard scoring formats, with only 8% having achieved that mark vs. 92% for RBs.
Takeaways
- We should be drafting more RBs early in standard formats.
- Don’t take RB drafting too far though, as WRs have a clear edge after the top-24 finishers.
- Grabbing one or two high-end RB options in the first three rounds is preferable.
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