The NFL offseason will be in full swing before we know it, with coaching changes, free agency and the NFL draft reshaping the 2023 fantasy football landscape. With that in mind, the Fantasy Life squad is breaking down every NFL team to determine what went wrong in 2022 and identify paths to improvement. Who knows, maybe an NFL GM will read this and realize those fantasy nerds aren’t so crazy after all – we all want the same thing: more points and more wins!!!
Team Summary
I remember leaving a restaurant in Cincinnati at halftime during the Chargers’ Wild Card game against the Jaguars. There wasn’t a reason to stay glued to the TV. It was over.
Trevor Lawrence had thrown four first-half INTs, and Jacksonville didn’t have a single point on the board at that point. But I, and everyone else, got to see the definition of “Charger-ing” play out in real time over the following 30 minutes.
I guess the silver lining was that the Chargers at least made it to the postseason last year?
Looking back on their regular season, the Chargers' road to the playoffs looked uncertain. Keenan Allen went down in the first half of the season opener and wasn’t right until November. Mike Williams missed four regular season games as well as their lone playoff game.
Cornerback JC Jackson, a huge free agent acquisition last offseason, didn’t start until Week 2, played five games, and then promptly ruptured his patellar tendon. On top of all that, starting left tackle Rashawn Slater tore his biceps tendon in Week 3 and missed the rest of the season.
Injuries plagued the roster, but a few playmakers did step up for Los Angeles.
Austin Ekeler had the eighth-most all-purpose yards among all skill position players in 2022. Gerald Everett ranked top 10 in yards after the catch per reception and in contested catch rate per PFF. Even Joshua Palmer made some clutch plays, like this deep shot from Justin Herbert.
But the team still needs to address major issues to be able to truly contend in the AFC West this coming season.
Last year’s disaster in the playoffs serves as yet another reminder of how far the team has to go to build a championship roster. And while most may not care how far the Chargers make it in the NFL playoffs, if at all, most fantasy players at least want them to find success in the regular season and fantasy playoffs.
Let’s start by discussing Los Angeles's WR room.
Jacksonville Jaguars cornerback Tre Herndon (37) defends on a pass intended for Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen (13) during the fourth quarter of an NFL first round playoff football matchup Saturday, Jan. 14, 2023 at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Fla. An offensive penalty was called against the Los Angeles Chargers on the play. Jacksonville Jaguars edged the Los Angeles Chargers on a field goal 31-30. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union] Jki 011423 Chargers Jags C 59
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Let Herbert cook downfield
Following Kellen Moore’s recent hiring as the Chargers' new offensive coordinator, many expect him to be a savior by fixing the passing game and letting Herbert attack more downfield.
The cannon attached to Herbert’s right shoulder sometimes looked more like a pop gun last year given his lack of downfield throws. But I’m not so sure that the lack of downfield passing was purely due to scheme.
Herbert’s average depth of target (aDOT) in the regular season was 6.9 yards, which ranked 32nd among starting quarterbacks (min. 200 dropbacks).
But how much of that was due to injuries to their receiving corps?
Los Angeles had to deal with stretches of games without one or both of their top two WRs. When forced to rely on depth players at the position in the absence of Allen, Williams, or both, the Chargers struggled on offense.
In games where Allen was out, Ekeler and Everett were serviceable on short passes, especially inside the numbers. However, the Chargers' perimeter WRs other than Williams were woefully unreliable.
In fact, Williams was the only Los Angeles WR to crack the top 100 in yards per route run (YPRR) last season.
YPRR ranks above filtered for exterior position alignment only.
During Allen's absence from Weeks 1 to 10, the outside WRs listed in the chart above combined for 63 targets but managed to score just two TDs. Even once Allen returned to relieve some defensive attention, they weren't able to perform much better.
With Allen turning 31 years old in April and Williams turning 29 years old later this year, the team must upgrade their WR depth behind their top options.
Signing a free agent WR like Darius Slayton or DJ Chark could be a viable short-term solution for the Chargers, but a long-term (i.e., younger) option has to be in their plans. Without another legitimate downfield threat, we could see Herbert continue to struggle even in the first year of Moore's new offense.
Charge Up the RB Room
Last season, the Chargers came into the year with at least a plan to keep Austin Ekeler fresh. Now, they may need more than a backup. With Ekeler testing the market, Los Angeles has to reconsider their rushing attack. Because regardless of Ekeler's status, none of the Chargers' additions at RB have panned out to be productive complements to their lead RB.
Ekeler’s usage in 2022 certainly made fantasy GMs happy, though. He was fifth in red-zone rushing attempts and had a higher target share than JuJu Smith-Schuster. And if the sixth-year veteran remains in Los Angeles, his usage shouldn’t change too much.
However, the Chargers' depth RBs were as unproductive in 2022 as their depth WRs.
A reliable No. 2 RB for short-yardage and change-of-pace plays would be ideal, both to keep Ekeler fresh as well as for the offense overall.
To be fair, Los Angeles hasn't spent much draft capital at RB in recent years. Joshua Kelley and Isaiah Spiller were both fourth-round picks, and Larry Rountree was a sixth-round selection.
The Chargers are correct in not spending premium draft picks on RBs, and they certainly shouldn't make any drastic moves like trading up to take Bijan Robinson.
Instead, this year's deep free agent RB class could offer some bargains.
Jamaal Williams, Jeff Wilson, and Samaje Perine could all be serviceable options to complement Ekeler, as all three can be effective in short-yardage situations as well as in the passing game.
Perine’s pass-blocking and pass-catching skillsets would also bring more utility to the offense at a manageable cost. Regardless, a veteran addition rather than another late-round rookie could get the Chargers’ running game back on the right track.
Bring back the fourth-down aggression
We crowned Brandon Staley the “King of the Nerds” during his first season as the Chargers’ head coach. Despite having a defensive background, Staley put the pedal to the metal on offense, and Los Angeles subsequently led the league in fourth-down attempt rate in 2021.
I’m a process-over-results thinker, but it certainly worked in Staley’s favor that the offense had a 64.7% success rate on fourth-down conversion attempts that first season. In fact, the Chargers ranked fourth in success rate that year, but the fanbase seemingly only remembers the misses.
In particular, many fans criticized a costly fourth-down turnover that cost the Chargers a late-season win over the Chiefs. After that, we saw Staley’s faith in analytics begin to wane.
The Chargers fell back to the middle of the pack in fourth-down attempt rate in 2022. Staley’s need to “give his defense a chance to compete” last season outweighed his analytical approach to the game the year prior.
On top of attempting fewer fourth-down conversions last year, the offense's success rate on such attempts declined as well. Los Angeles ranked among the bottom-12 teams in fourth-down success rate in 2022 after having ranked in the top five in 2021.
But here’s where Moore’s hire as offensive coordinator could help.
Moore was able to engineer an efficient and aggressive offense in Dallas in recent seasons in spite of head coach Mike McCarthy's push to be more conservative. Although Dallas didn't rank particularly high in fourth-down attempt rate, the Cowboys ranked 12th in fourth-down success rate in 2021 and 14th last season.
The hope is that Moore can now help increase the Chargers' fourth-down attempt rate, conversion rate, or both.
