The NFL offseason will be in full swing before we know it, with coaching changes, free agency and the NFL draft reshaping the 2023 fantasy football landscape. With that in mind, the Fantasy Life squad is breaking down every NFL team to determine what went wrong in 2022 and identify paths to improvement. Who knows, maybe an NFL GM will read this and realize those fantasy nerds aren’t so crazy after all – we all want the same thing, more points and more wins!!!
Team Summary
The Commanders are a team in limbo. They’re coming off a somewhat-respectable 8-8-1 season, but also feel far and away like the worst team in their division. Ultimately, Washington has decided to stick with Ron Rivera as head coach for one more season (at the very least) so a true rebuild isn’t in the cards just yet.
One move the Commanders did make was to fire OC Scott Turner. Last season, the Commanders finished 28th in both offensive DVOA and in pure yards per carry stats. The lack of explosiveness resulted in Turner being let go this offseason, a move which should be positive for a player like Terry McLaurin who never ascended into elite fantasy status under Turner’s schemes.
Jan 8, 2023; Landover, Maryland, USA; Washington Commanders quarterback Sam Howell (14) scores a touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
McLaurin posted a 77-1191-5 line in the 2022 season so we can hardly call him a bust for fantasy purposes. However, he also didn’t come close to cracking the top-10 at his position in overall targets (despite playing in all 17 games) or fantasy production (he was WR12 in PPR scoring), so there’s no victory lapping to be done here either.
Ultimately, the Commanders enter 2023 in need of a change in luck. They desperately need to move on from the “transition quarterbacks” they have been riding the last couple of seasons. They’ll need their new OC (likely Eric Bieniemy) and fifth-round quarterback Sam Howell to potentially work out in order to do so. They also need a return to health for Chase Young, who has played in just 12 games since the start of the 2021 season, in order to give the defense a jolt.
There’s a lot of ifs involved, but with a few smart moves at the draft – and a shift in mentality on offense – Washington could rise up and become a force in the NFC East by season’s end. Here are some moves the Commanders need to make to help make that goal a reality.
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Draft a Quarterback
The Commanders are in an interesting spot in terms of the quarterback position for next season. They have an intriguing prospect in Sam Howell, who leads the depth chart right now, and will certainly opt to cut Carson Wentz and his non-guaranteed 26.2 million dollar contract this offseason.
It’s also obvious that the upside with 29-year-old free agent Taylor Heinicke is limited and he’ll likely draw interest from other teams. Rather than get in a bidding war for a high-end backup, the Commanders should absolutely choose to invest more draft capital in the position and let Howell and whoever they pick in 2023 duel it out in camp.
Developing the quarterback of the future should be of the utmost importance and expending higher draft capital at the position is never a poor idea. Just ask the NFC Conference-winning Eagles, who controversially took Jalen Hurts with the 53rd overall pick in 2019, despite having what was a clear starter at the time in Wentz.
The Commanders have the 16th and 47th overall picks this season and while they may get shut out from the top four prospects at the position, a player like Hendon Hooker would fit in beautifully into their long term plans. Hooker’s arm strength is one of his best qualities and he excelled as a passer last season, posting 3,135 yards, 27 TDs, and just 2 INTs in 11 games. Tennessee was also second in college football last season in yards per pass attempt.
One of Washington’s biggest issues last season was a lack of explosive plays (more on that below) and Hooker’s deep ball would likely open things up for more big plays from both McLaurin and Jahan Dotson.
Hooker suffered an ACL tear in November so expect him to be available late in the first round or even into day two. If Washington can grab him, they’d increase their chances of finding an elite starting quarterback and also get the added benefit of not having a high-priced anchor like Wentz hogging cap space.
Give Terry McLaurin the Ball
McLaurin is entering his fifth year with the Commanders. The last two seasons he’s ranked top five in the league in unrealized air yards and deep targets. He’s also put up impressive numbers and gone over 1,050 receiving yards in three straight seasons – all despite ranking just 70th in catchable target rate in both of the past two seasons.
Even with his impressive production and the ability to overcome below-average quarterbacks for most of his career, McLaurin has still never posted a top-eight season in terms of overall targets. Last year, his 120 targets had him ranked just 19th in targets among WRs. That’s far too low for a player who has shown that there’s still untapped potential ahead.
The Commanders ranked just 17th in passing plays of 25+ yards last season and have an easy route to improving in that category in the 2023 season by simply getting McLaurin the ball more. As we’ve seen lately from teams like the Rams, Dolphins, and Vikings, peppering your elite-level talent on the outside can help overcome a lot of deficiencies in other areas.
Moving on from Taylor Heinicke and Carson Wentz this season should also help this issue. Wentz was extremely conservative and only targeted McLaurin on 16% of his passes. Heinicke targeted McLaurin far more, but had one of the worst deep ball passer ratings on the season, ranking 19th in the league.
Whomever they roll with at quarterback, the message should be simple: throw the ball to Terry and let the rest take care of itself.
Nov 14, 2022; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Washington Commanders wide receiver Terry McLaurin (17) makes a catch in front of Philadelphia Eagles cornerback Darius Slay (2) during the first quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Bring Back the Big Plays
As alluded to above, the Commanders offense was an extremely limited group in 2022. Despite having some electric receivers, they were below average in creating big passing plays and were one of the worst teams at creating explosive plays on the ground.
Washington recorded just eight rush plays of 20 yards or more and had zero rush plays that went for over 40 yards. They also ranked 29th in offensive rush DVOA. Brian Robinson Jr. averaged under 2.0 yards per carry in three of the four games where he received 20 or more carries last season and looks better suited for a complimentary or short yardage role.
The Commanders addressed their WR position last season by adding Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel to a group that already included Terry McLaurin. This year, it’s time to address the run game. There’s a ton of speed available in the draft and a player like Sean Tucker projects as a potential feature back to build around. He reportedly ran a sub-4.4 40m and should be available on day two, potentially even with the 97th pick in round three.
If the Commanders want more of a specialist to compliment Robinson, pure-speed back Devon Achane should also be available late into day two of the draft. He’s run a 10.14 100m dash and may be the fastest player available this season.
The Commanders will have lots of ways to address the RB position after the first round. If they go with my initial recommendation and grab Hendon Hooker in the second round, moving up into the early third to address the running back talent pool would also be doable considering they have an extra sixth-round pick to use as trade capital.
