How to Fix the Cowboys

The NFL offseason is in full swing, with coaching changes, free agency, and the NFL draft reshaping the 2023 fantasy football landscape. With that in mind, the Fantasy Life squad is breaking down every NFL team to determine what went wrong in 2022 and identify paths to improvement. Who knows, maybe an NFL GM will read this and realize those fantasy nerds aren’t so crazy after all – we all want the same thing, more points, and more wins!!!

Team Summary

The Cowboys have delivered back-to-back 12-5 seasons on the back of strong play on both sides of the football. However, they haven’t been able to translate their regular season success to the postseason, leading the team to move on from offensive coordinator Kellen Moore.

The team promoted Brian Schottenheimer to replace Moore, and Mike McCarthy will take over play-calling duties. The head coach suggested the Cowboys won’t make wholesale changes, but an estimated 30-35% would differ. However, when pressed about the differences, McCarthy provided a puzzling reply.

The Cowboys ran the ball above the NFL average in close (8th) and trailing game scripts (6th) and ranked fourth in rushing plays per game, excluding overtime. So, McCarthy’s response doesn’t make much sense on that front. However, no team left more time on the play clock in neutral situations than Dallas (11.6 seconds).

Moore’s formula worked to the tune of 26.8 points per game (4th), ranking sixth in the percentage of drives converted to TDs (27%). The Cowboys played with a lead of four or more points on 39% of snaps – the third-most in the NFL.

Those leading scripts played perfectly into Dan Quinn’s aggressive defense that wants to unleash the pass rush, where Dallas ranked No. 1 in pressure rate (40%). Of course, it also kept them from worrying about run defense – where they ranked No. 20 in PFF grades.

From a macro perspective, the Cowboys have young centerpieces on both sides of the ball with Micah Parsons and CeeDee Lamb that can provide big plays that win games. However, they have multiple former superstars that are aging and making big dollars.

• Edge: DeMarcus Lawrence (31) – $26M
• Guard: Zack Martin (33) – $19.9M
• Tackle: Tyron Smith (33) – $17.6M
• RB: Ezekiel Elliott (28) – $16.7M

Dallas must get their succession plan in order on the offensive and defensive lines. Smith could be a cap casualty, with the team currently $11M over the cap. Cutting Smith and Elliott would provide Dallas with about $14M in cap savings.

The team also faces a decision on Dalton Schultz, who was a big part of the 2023 attack after the trade of Amari Cooper for a bag of chips in the 2022 offseason. The Cowboys will use the franchise tag on Tony Pollard.

Fantasy Fixer Recommendations

Cut Ezekiel Elliott and Feature Tony Pollard

Elliott’s contract is $16.7M this season, but the team can save almost $5M by moving on before June 1st. A post-June-1 cut would save them nearly $11M but add dead cap money to 2024.

The eighth-year veteran has been below average in key efficiency metrics over the past three years. In 2022, those numbers hit a crescendo, with Elliott ranking outside the top 24 across the board.

It is hard to imagine any NFL team paying Zeke even $5M per year, much less his current number. If they want a complement to Pollard, they can pick one up later in a loaded draft class. 

Dallas must move on from this contract.

Pollard was the opposite of Elliott, ranking as my No. 1 potential free agent ahead of Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs.

The fifth-year RB is a true dual-threat option that has upside similar to Alvin Kamara and Austin Ekeler in the passing game. In 2021, Pollard was even better than in 2022, with a 2.01 YPRR and 26% TPRR.

If McCarthy & Co. want to find ways to tweak the 2023 offense, maximizing Pollard in the passing attack should be priority No. 1. He is a mismatch that can work past the line of scrimmage (1.5 aDOT) to create mismatches with linebackers and safeties.

Draft a Playmaker in the Passing Game

Whether the Cowboys decide to keep Schultz or not, they need another threat in the passing game. While the offense was good in 2022, they only converted 17% of targets into 15 yards or more, which ranked 18th.

Lamb made massive strides registering a 27% target share, translating to 107 receptions and nine receiving TDs. His primary damage comes in the intermediate range as a catch-and-run savant that the team can move all over the formation. Last year Lamb operated from the slot on 63% of snaps.

Unfortunately, Michael Gallup didn’t have a strong first year on a new contract coming off of a knee injury. 

At this point, it is fair to wonder if the Cowboys overpaid for Gallup, who has a career 18% TPRR and 1.43 YPRR. Those data points align with tertiary offensive weapons, which translates to WR5-territory in fantasy. 

After the season, the veteran WR also underwent procedures on his meniscus and ankle.

There are reports the Cowboys have an interest in the deep 2023 TE class.

Michael Mayer and Dalton Kincaid are both currently projected as first-round selections, with Luke Musgrave and Darnell Washington looking like second-round picks. 

Mayer dominated targets at Notre Dame with a 25% target share and is the Irish’s all-time leader at tight end with 180 receptions. He started as a true freshman and was an early draft declaration as a junior – he checks boxes we normally want to see from elite receivers. 

Musgrave and Washington don’t have the target-earning prowess of Mayer or Kincaid but possess the size and speed many teams covet. Both posted top-16 Relative Athletic Scores (RAS) based on data dating back to 1987. We have some athletic freaks in this class. Musgrave is a true seam stretcher with a 13.8 aDOT in his last full season.

If Dallas decides to wait a little longer, Sam LaPorta could be a steal based on his third-round projection. He demanded 32% and 23% target shares in his final two seasons, along with 2.16 and 1.97 YPRRs. The former Iowa State (TE Factory) product also showed out at the NFL Combine. 

It is a great year for the Cowboys to target a play-making TE given their draft picks, the lack of depth at WR in the draft, and the depth of the TE class.

Inject Youth Into the Offensive Line

It looks like the Cowboys hit on first-rounder Tyler Smith who graded out as the 25th-best tackle, according to PFF. However, it’s not a time to rest on their laurels, with Tyron Smith and Zack Martin entering their age-33 seasons. Martin remains a high-end option but is at the age where injuries and skill deterioration could quickly become a factor.

Cody Mauch out of North Dakota State is an interesting name to keep in mind. 

Mauch is currently slipping into the second round of mock drafts and could be available at No. 58, where Dallas currently resides. Based on Daniel Jeremiah and Dane Brugler’s recent big boards, Mauch would be a value at that pick, although PFF’s Mike Renner has him a bit lower.

 Another name the Cowboys could consider in the second round is Steve Avila, who sits at pick 63 in consensus mock drafts. Avila is a hometown option out of TCU that Jeremiah projects as a “solid starting guard right away at the next level.”

Grabbing one of these two options or another player like Joe Tippman out of Wisconsin makes a ton of sense given the Cowboys' needs and where they are picking in the second round.