How to Fix the Jaguars

The NFL offseason is in full swing, with coaching changes, free agency, and the NFL draft reshaping the 2023 fantasy football landscape. With that in mind, the Fantasy Life squad is breaking down every NFL team to determine what went wrong in 2022 and identify paths to improvement. Who knows, maybe an NFL GM will read this and realize those fantasy nerds aren’t so crazy after all – we all want the same thing, more points, and more wins!!!

Team Summary

The Jaguars were an easy team to mock going into 2022-23. They had just come out of the Urban Meyer experience and produced their 10th season in 11 years with six or fewer wins. The Doug Pederson hiring was received with lukewarm reactions around the league, but ended up being one of the best moves of the off-season.

The Jaguars offense erupted with Pederson at the helm. They ranked ninth in pass rate above expectation and were seventh in offensive EPA. The improved metrics saw Trevor Lawrence take a massive leap in his second season. Lawrence ended the year ranked 8th at his position in most standard and PPR redraft leagues, and 15th in QB rating, up from 28th the year prior. 

The Jaguars were on the precipice of making some real noise last season and it was only a late fumble that derailed their chances against the Chiefs in the divisional round. A one-score loss to the eventual Super Bowl champions is nothing to hang your head about, and the Jaguars are certainly a team with a ton of momentum heading into 2023-24. 

Everything seems to be lining up for the Jaguars next year. 

The Jags play in a weak division, they’ll be bringing back all of their main offensive weapons (and adding a potential WR1 in Calvin Ridley), and may soon be free from their twice-annual pummeling, courtesy of Derrick Henry.

Jacksonville’s main area of concern next season will be on defense, where they ranked:

• 30th in defensive pass DVOA
• 15th in yards per pass attempt against
• 26th in sacks
• 24th in yards allowed

They need to add talent on that side of the ball, but the Jaguars may also just be a player or two away from being one of the best offenses in the league. With no massive injury concerns or contract issues, this team is on a direct path to elite status in 2023-24, if they can make some necessary modifications this off-season. 

Fantasy Fixer Recommendations

Unleash Travis Etienne in the passing game

Despite a dominant second half of the season, Etienne finished this past year ranked as only the RB17 in full-point PPR leagues. That’s mainly due to his lackluster passing game usage, which saw him accumulate just 45 targets – ranking him behind such luminaries as Rex Burkhead and Samje Perine in that regard.  

Etienne improved every season as a receiver while in college, landing 48 receptions and averaging 12.8 yards per reception in his final year at Clemson. Despite the pedigree and obvious talent that Etienne has in this area of the game, the Jaguars distributed a mere 14% of their targets to the RB position last season, ranking them fifth-last in the league by that metric. 

The Jaguars have a solid WR core, but lack a true WR1. None of Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, or Marvin Jones Jr. ranked within the top-25 graded receivers on PFF for the season. Kirk was likely asked to do a little too much in his first year as a Jaguar, as he posted just a 63.7% catch-rate, despite also posting the lowest aDOT of his career at 9.1. 

Etienne ranked a solid 16th last season in yards per route run (YPRR), was 10th in the league in broken tackles, and led the league with nine plays of 30+ yards. His ability as a pass catcher was also one of the highlighted traits which led to him being a day-one selection in the 2021 draft. 

The Jaguars attempted to force-feed Kirk the ball a few too many times last season and it potentially hurt them in spots, including their playoff loss to the Chiefs when he could only haul in seven of his 14 targets. Using Etienne more as a receiver would help Jacksonville become more balanced on offense and would also put the ball into the hands of arguably their most explosive offensive asset more often. 

The Jaguars don’t necessarily need to turn Etienne into the next Larry Centers, but upping his route participation (where he ranked just 27th among RBs) would likely take some pressure off their WRs and increase the overall efficiency and explosiveness of the offense next season. 

Keep adding weapons to the offense 

As we found out with the Kansas City Chiefs last season, you can never have too much of a good thing. Kansas City did more with more last year, adding a dynamic rookie running back in Isiah Pacheco at the draft and using an eclectic mix of WRs to make up for the gap left by the Tyreek Hill departure. 

Jacksonville’s offense ranked out 9th in offensive DVOA last year and seventh in offensive EPA per play. It’s a great achievement considering where they were ranked in 2021, but they still have a decent gap to make up if they are to join the top-rated offenses like Cincinnati, Buffalo, Philadelphia, and Kansas City at the top of those rankings. 

Jan 14, 2023; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars running back Travis Etienne Jr. (1) runs past Los Angeles Chargers linebacker Troy Reeder (42) during the first quarter of a wild card game at TIAA Bank Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The Jaguars did a bunch of contract restructuring to free up some cap space, but many of those moves were to make room for the $11M cap hit that newly-instated Calvin Ridley will be bringing with him. Ridley is a wild card. In his final season with Matt Ryan (2021), he posted just 1.47 yards per route run (72nd among WRs) and 9.1 yards per reception (92nd among WRs). Ridley was top-20 in both those metrics among WRs in 2020, and now that he’s attached to a more dynamic offensive scheme and quarterback, it’s possible he’ll be able to provide elite production again. 

While getting Ridley for practically nothing was a huge boon, the Jaguars shouldn’t just be content to rest on their laurels. Jacksonville has nine picks in the 2023 NFL Draft, including five picks in the first rounds. The draft pool is currently shaping up to offer one of the most elite TE draft classes in history, with four or more TEs now projected to go in the first two rounds. 

Top TE prospect Michael Mayer isn’t likely to be around when the Jaguars select at 24, but Dalton Kincaid is. Kincaid was recently highlighted among a group of beat writers and NFL analysts as the most likely player to be selected at this spot by Jacksonville and could be a massive boon for Trevor Lawrence in the red zone. 

Kincaid’s college tape is littered with catches made in traffic or near defenders. He commanded a 21.7% team target share in his final season in college and scored 16 times over his last 25 college games. 

Kincaid should be very appealing to the Jaguars, who ranked just 17th in red zone efficiency and were hampered by Trevor Lawrence’s 50% completion rate while inside their opponent's 20-yard line. Adding Kincaid would not only give the Jaguars another offensive weapon, but address a statistical soft point for their offense AND give them a succession plan at TE should Evan Engram (who was franchise tagged for 2023) walk next season. 

Get deep on defense

The Jaguars made some significant improvements on defense last season. But even with a more respectable showing, there is clearly still some room for improvement. 

The Jaguars recorded 14 INTs and 13 fumbles on defense last season, all despite ranking just 26th in sacks. While the defense should be given credit for being opportunistic, it’s also concerning that turnovers were a big part of what made them an effective group. Jacksonville has two solid edge rushers in Josh Allen and Travon Walker, but they’ve ranked 26th and 28th in sacks over the past two seasons and their adjusted sack rate actually got worse in 2022. 

It’s hard to argue that they need to add more talent in those positions, but certainly Jacksonville needs to convert the pressure they are creating into sacks more often. Adding in a versatile player like linebacker Ogbonnia Okoronkwo would likely help, as he could also make up for the potential loss of Dawuane Smoot (free agent). Okoronkwo had five sacks last season and produced a 17.5% pressure percentage. 

The other massive area of concern is cornerback. The Jaguars have a great young boundary corner in Tyson Campbell, but lack depth elsewhere in the secondary including the slot. The Jaguars were one of the worst teams in coverage against TEs and RBs last season, giving up 7 TDs to opposing TEs and the second-most receptions on the season to opposing RBs. 

Whether it’s looking toward the draft for a player like Devon Witherspoon or in free agency for a versatile corner like Cameron Sutton, Jacksonville needs to improve their coverage personnel if they’re going to hold up against a team like Kansas City or Cincinnati in the playoffs.