The NFL offseason will be in full swing before we know it, with coaching changes, free agency and the NFL draft reshaping the 2023 fantasy football landscape. With that in mind, the Fantasy Life squad is breaking down every NFL team to determine what went wrong in 2022 and identify paths to improvement. LaMarca is here to take on our next project, the Jets...
Team Summary
The Jets were not expected to be contenders in 2022, and at the end of the day, they weren’t. However, they got out of the gates red-hot and even though they faded down the stretch, there were still plenty of positives to take away.
The biggest was their defense. Their defense went from one of the worst in football in 2021 to one of the best last season. They ranked dead-last in defensive DVOA two years ago, but they were up to fifth last season. In terms of Pro Football Focus grade, their defense was the best unit in the league.
The Jets also had a massive haul during the 2022 NFL Draft. Sauce Gardner emerged as quite possibly the best cornerback in football during his first professional season, and he took home 46 of 50 possible first-place votes for Defensive Rookie of the Year. Garrett Wilson took home the Offensive Rookie of the Year award for his excellent season at receiver, and Breece Hall would’ve been in the running if not for suffering a season-ending injury. Overall, the Jets became just the third team in NFL history with the Rookie of the Year on both sides of the ball, joining the 1967 Lions and the 2018 Saints.
Ultimately, the Jets feel close to making a return to the postseason for the first time since 2010. Let’s break down how they can get over the hump.
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Aaron Rodgers or Bust at Quarterback
The Jets have been looking for a franchise quarterback for basically 50 years. They have had some success here and there – Vinny Testaverde and Chad Pennington both gave the team solid production – but they have struggled to find a consistent, long-term solution.
Making matters worse, the Jets are notoriously impatient at the quarterback position. Geno Smith made 29 starts over two seasons before being banished to the bench, only to re-emerge as a Pro Bowler with Seattle last season. Could he have been the Jets’ answer if he was given a bit more time to develop? We’ll never know for sure.
Sam Darnold had a slightly longer leash as the Jets’ starter, racking up 38 starts over his first three seasons. He was eventually traded to Carolina to make way for Zach Wilson, who seems to be on a similar trajectory.
It’s very possible that none of the quarterbacks the team has drafted were the right picks, but it’s also reasonable to suggest that none of them got a truly fair shake. They spent most of their Jets’ tenure playing with terrible offensive lines and subpar pass-catchers, only to be jettisoned right as things were turning around.
It seems likely that the Jets will have yet another new starting quarterback this season. Not only did Wilson struggle mightily when on the field, but he also struggled in the locker room. The quarterback has to be a leader, and Wilson has not displayed the proper traits for an NFL quarterback. That’s part of the reason why Mike White finished the year as the Jets’ QB. Even though he doesn’t possess nearly the same arm talent, he was much more respected in the locker room.
While it’s easy to say that the Jets should be ready to move on from Wilson, I don’t think the issue is entirely cut-and-dry. They should definitely be willing to explore other options – Wilson has not done nearly enough to guarantee a place on the field next season – but they should be looking for the RIGHT option.
In my eyes, Aaron Rodgers is the only option that fits the bill.
Rodgers is coming off a subpar season, but he was dealing with his worst supporting cast in ages. He still finished as the No. 14 quarterback per PFF, and he’s just one year removed from winning back-to-back MVPs.
Putting him on the Jets immediately ups their stature to darkhorse title contenders. With their defense, they only need mediocre production from the offense to win a lot of games. Rodgers should be more than capable of providing that with Wilson, Hall, and others catching passes.
Of course, it’s not that simple with Rodgers. While he’s an all-time talent on the field, he’s the GOAT when it comes to being a weirdo. He is reportedly mulling his future during a four-day darkness retreat, so there’s no guarantee he’s even going to be available. Maybe Woody Johnson should spend some time meditating to see if he and Rodgers can get on the same wavelength.
If Rodgers’ chakras don’t align in the right way for New York, they should not panic and sign a lesser quarterback in free agency. The dropoff from someone like Rodgers to Derek Carr is drastic, and one of the biggest mistakes that NFL teams make is overpaying a mediocre quarterback. Carr posted career-lows virtually across the board last year, and he finished No. 27 at the position per PFF.
Giving Wilson another chance would not be popular with the fan base, but I firmly believe it’s in the franchise’s best interests if they can’t get Rodgers. Not every QB can be Justin Herbert and dominate in the NFL right away. Some take a bit more seasoning, like Josh Allen, Daniel Jones, or Geno Smith. Wilson was the No. 2 overall pick just two years ago, and if they don’t get Rodgers, they should give him one more chance to prove he’s not a part of their future.
Dec 18, 2022; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Jets quarterback Zach Wilson (2) throws the ball as Detroit Lions linebacker James Houston (59) pursues during the second half at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Beef Up the Offensive Line
Whoever is under center for the Jets next year is going to need a bit more help on the offensive line. The Jets had a 7.0% adjusted sack rate last season, which put them just slightly below the league average. That leaves some room for improvement, especially when factoring in their weakness in the run game. They generated just 3.81 adjusted line yards, which was the worst mark in the league.
Two starters from last year’s unit – center Connor McGovern and tackle George Fant – are also scheduled to become free agents. Losing Fant won’t hurt, but McGovern ranked 10th among centers in terms of PFF grade last season.
Even if they bring back McGovern, the team still has plenty of work to do to shore up their blocking. Alijah Vera-Tucker has proven to be a capable starter at tackle, but he and McGovern were the only above-average players on the Jets’ offensive line last year.
The Jets currently enter the offseason slightly over the salary cap, but they should be able to free up some additional space. Releasing Corey Davis would free up $10.5M towards the cap, and he definitely seems surplus to requirement at receiver. The team could also restructure the contracts for guys like C.J. Mosley, Laken Tomlinson, and D.J. Reed to open up some additional flexibility.
That would allow them to potentially go after Orlando Brown Jr., who is easily the top prize along the offensive line in the upcoming free agent class. I’m not sure if he’s willing to leave the Chiefs, but the Jets can certainly try to entice him with a big bag of cash. If they miss out on Brown, there are still plenty of other players that they could try to entice to New York, including Mike McGlinchey, Dalton Risner, and Ben Powers.
The Jets could certainly also address the offensive line during the draft. They’ve been linked with Broderick Jones pretty frequently in mock drafts, and PFF has four offensive tackles ranked between No. 9 and No. 24 on their Big Board.
Add One More Pass-Catcher
The Jets have a legitimate No. 1 receiver in Wilson, but you need multiple passing threats in the modern NFL. New York needs to try and supplement their pass-catching corps with another potential option in the offseason.
This is probably true in general, but it’s particularly true if they do move on from Davis. Given that they need some cap flexibility, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where he isn’t a casualty.
Nov 27, 2022; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson (17) scores on a touchdown reception during the first half against the Chicago Bears at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
That would leave Eljiah Moore and Braxton Berrios as the remaining options behind Wilson. That’s not exactly a bare cupboard. Before Wilson’s breakout, Moore looked like he was going to be a future star at receiver. He broke out down the stretch of his rookie season, but the team’s poor quarterback play last year tanked any hope of the Jets having two successful pass-catchers. With Wilson thriving, there simply wasn’t enough to go around.
If the Jets do improve at quarterback in the offseason, Moore is poised for a big bounce-back campaign.
Berrios is more of a slot option/gadget player, and he is a crucial performer on special teams. Having him as a reserve option would be the ideal scenario for the team next season.
It is often said that teams should build their receiving corps like a basketball team, and the Jets currently have a lot of point guards. Moore checks in at just 5’10”, while Wilson is 6’0”. They could use a big-bodied compliment on the outside to serve as the team’s power forward.
D.J. Chark feels like the perfect fit next to that duo. He weighs in at 6’4” and 205 lbs, and he has historically produced when given an opportunity. He exploded for 73 catches and eight touchdowns in his second year in the league, and he had 30 catches, 502 yards, and three touchdowns in limited time for the Lions this season.
I’m not sure how much Chark will command this offseason in what is ultimately a pretty thin crop of receivers. However, the Jets’ should throw their hat in the ring.
