The NFL offseason will be in full swing before we know it, with coaching changes, free agency, and the NFL draft reshaping the 2023 fantasy football landscape. With that in mind, the Fantasy Life squad is breaking down every NFL team to determine what went wrong in 2022 and identify paths to improvement.
Fantasy managers considered the Panthers a fantasy-friendly offense for one simple reason. They had just two players worth targeting at cost. And they were top options in their position. “Oft-injured” Christian McCaffrey and D.J. Moore were the only Carolina players drafted in the top 150 during the ’22 best-ball season. With limitations at quarterback, we assumed production would be limited but focused on the pair. However, the season threw us a few extra curveballs to consider for next year.
McCaffrey’s move to San Francisco left the backfield to D’Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard. Foreman was the coveted backup by most drafters after he flashed during his final weeks as a Titan. And devy enthusiasts were still holding out hope for Hubbard. Surprisingly enough, both exceeded expectations.
Over an 11-week sample, Foreman ranked top 10 in yards after contact per attempt and explosive runs per PFF. He finished as a top-12 RB three times after cracking the century mark in four contests. Meanwhile, Hubbard’s 1.90 YPRR was better than McCaffrey’s over the same split (1.84). But despite Foreman and Hubbard’s success, neither could overcome their quarterback situation.
Three different signal-callers started for the Panthers in ’22. They combined for four games of more than 225 passing yards and three multi-touchdown games. Moore needed Hail Mary throws to keep his fantasy value alive, and the passing offense was 26th in EPA per play. There’s plenty Carolina can do to fix their squad; luckily, they’re already on their way.
The Panthers have put together a staff of teachers and mentors with the experience to develop their young talent. I’ve got a few extra tweaks for the offense, but fantasy managers should be excited to draft their skill players in ’23.
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Upgrade at Quarterback
Getting a boost under center is the most-obvious need for the Panthers. They were the only team without a quarterback to rank inside the Top 12 during the regular fantasy season. By the time Sam Darnold did it in Week 16, no one could trust their passing attack. Their wide receivers didn’t. But I’m not asking for the next Patrick Mahomes or Joe Burrow to make their way to Charlotte. Even an average QB would raise the floor of the offense.
Quarterbacks can use play-action concepts and RPOs to keep defenses guessing. Plus, they have to have some level of mobility to evade pressure. All of which can affect their efficiency or ability to hit their targets in stride. So, I removed all those plays to see how the Carolina QBs performed when asked to play their position in its simplest form. Unfortunately, they can’t.
All three were below the league average in EPA per attempt and rate of catchable passes thrown per SIS. Even without pressure, Darnold and Walker threw more interceptions (6) than touchdowns (4). Brett Rypien (86.7%) and Carson Wentz (84.0%) were more accurate. But help is (reportedly) on the way.
Carolina may have some options at the ninth overall pick in the ’23 draft. However, it may require some maneuvering to ensure they get their guy. Regardless, improving at the position should be high on their priority list. If they can, the Panthers’ offensive coaching staff to add a productive wrinkle to the passing game to ease any new quarterback into the system.
Use More Quick-Game Concepts
In general, quick-game passing concepts make a quarterback’s decisions simple and decisive. But they’re also effective. Intuitively, it’d make sense that being efficient in this area would benefit the entire offense. Consistently demonstrating the ability to catch a defense off guard or set up short third downs is good! However, sequencing them into a game plan pays off throughout the season.
A team’s quick-game efficiency correlated with their overall dropback efficiency. That’s why the playoff teams litter the top-right section of the above chart. Moving the chains and creating explosive plays are byproducts of getting the ball out quickly. And, of course, the Panthers struggled here.
Darnold and Walker’s time-to-throw averages couldn’t have been starker. The XFL star averaged a blistering 2.27 seconds, while the Jets’ castoff needed an additional beat to get the ball out (3.22). Regardless, neither was successful. Both graded out poorly in PFF’s passing grades, and Walker had the sixth-highest pressure-to-sack ratio if he couldn’t find his first read. But here’s where good coaching will help the next QB for Carolina.
Under Frank Reich, Matt Ryan was the 14th-best passer when getting the ball out quickly this season. Coincidentally, Ryan Fitzpatrick was sixth when Jim Caldwell was the assistant head coach and QBs coach in Miami during the 2019 season. Matthew Stafford was 13th in Caldwell’s final season in Detroit. It shouldn’t take much to incorporate these concepts into the Panther’s offense. However, they still need the pass-catching options to go with it.
Upgrade the Ancillary Receiving Options
As I mentioned, Moore and McCaffrey were the primary targets for fantasy and real football. Drafters remember the legendary 2019 season when the duo soaked up 265 of the team’s 516 attempts. But without McCaffrey and Robbie Anderson, it’d be tough for any quarterback to succeed with the receivers left on the roster.
First, I need to contextualize Laviska Shenault’s ranks. He ranked first or second in YPRR and TPRR among all WRs. The math checks out. But he only had 32 targets on the season. And nearly a quarter of his yards came on one play. His weighted opportunity rank emphasizes his lack of air yards and inconsistent usage throughout the season. And his story was common for the rest of the team.
The Panthers’ WRs couldn’t consistently earn targets. Their tight ends were 46th and 49th out of 58 TEs in first downs generated per target. Free agency and multiple swings in the draft would benefit their receiving corps to give their new quarterback more (read: better) options in ’23.
