Table of Contents
  1. WR – Marvin Harrison Jr. | Cardinals
  2. WR – Malik Nabers | Giants
  3. QB – Caleb Williams | Bears
  4. WR – Rome Odunze | Bears
  5. WR – Xavier Worthy | Chiefs
  6. WR – Brian Thomas Jr. | Jaguars
  7. RB – Jonathon Brooks | Panthers

Every season, rookies make massive impacts on fantasy football leagues. Most managers will need to exercise patience as skill players earn higher shares of fantasy-friendly opportunities throughout the season. But these players can absolutely be worth the wait. 

Here are the top 2024 rookies expected to see enough opportunity to impact fantasy leagues sooner than later. 

WR – Marvin Harrison Jr. | Cardinals

Harrison is one of the most highly lauded WR prospects to enter the NFL in the last two decades. In the Fantasy Life Super Model — driven by the data points that correlate most strongly with future NFL production — Harrison posted a 100th-percentile score, topping Ja'Marr Chase for the best mark since 2018.

Harrison is the complete package. He can attack every field level while facing off against the opponent's top cornerback. No other WR in the class was more dominant against man coverage, with a 39% target rate. In other words, when Harrison was on the field and saw man coverage, his QBs decided to get him the rock almost half the time.

Only six prospects have reached the 80th percentile or better in the Super Model and have fared exceptionally well in their first two seasons.

  • Top-12 Finishes: 20%
  • Top-24 Finishes: 67%
  • Top-36 Finishes: 83%

The No. 4 overall pick immediately becomes the top dog in the Cardinals' receiving room and will challenge Trey McBride to be the team's target leader. Playing with a capable QB in Kyler Murray, Harrison projects as a borderline WR1. In a good runout, Harrison reaches similar heights to Justin Jefferson (WR10) and Ja'Marr Chase (WR5) in their rookie campaigns.

If you want Harrison, be prepared to pay up. In early best-ball drafts, he goes in early Round 2 as the ninth WR off the board, ahead of names like Davante Adams, Brandon Aiyuk and D.J. Moore.

FL Mag

WR – Malik Nabers | Giants

Nabers owns the third-highest score in the Super Model, sandwiched between Chase and Jaylen Waddle. While he has yet to demonstrate the same ability to dominate the intermediate range of the field as Harrison, Nabers still earned targets at all field levels and was the more explosive playmaker after the catch. His 30% target rate against man coverage and 25% rate against zone were both WR1-worthy.

Landing on an offense with Daniel Jones, who has averaged only 203 passing yards per game, isn't ideal. However, the Giants receiving corps offers little competition for targets. The No. 6 pick projects as the top option for the Giants by a significant margin, and if you squint, there is a world where Nabers accumulates more targets than Harrison in their rookie campaign.

Nabers projects as a mid-range to low-end WR2 option and comes off the board as the WR18 in early best-ball drafts.

QB – Caleb Williams | Bears

The Bears don't have a great track record with their Round 1 QB picks. However, they appear set on providing Williams the support his predecessors didn't have, preparing for his arrival for over a year.

Williams has the weapons to challenge for 4,000-plus passing yards and could add another 350 to 450 yards on the ground. During his collegiate career, he accounted for 13% of the designed rushing attempts and 30% of rushing TDs, punching in 27 scores in 37 games.

Once you factor in his upside as a rusher, Williams' potential to rank inside the top 12 quarterbacks in 2024 is hard to ignore. I prefer Williams over veterans like Trevor Lawrence, Justin Herbert and Jared Goff.

WR – Rome Odunze | Bears

After going No. 9 to the Bears, Odunze grades out as the ninth-best prospect in the Super Model. He broke out later, and his star never burned as bright as Harrison or Nabers, but Odunze still offers WR1 traits. He can win at all three levels of the field, playing from the outside, and his target rates against man (30%) and zone (25%) were on par with those of Nabers.

Chicago's pecking order for targets will be challenging for Odunze to climb as a rookie. D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen are coming off 26% and 30% target-share seasons. Odunze would immediately lock into the WR3 with WR2 upside status if either of those players went down due to injury. However, the best path to year-one success for Odunze relies on Shane Waldron making three-WR sets the go-to for his offense and Caleb Williams having a C.J. Stroud-like rookie campaign.

Nov 18, 2023; Corvallis, Oregon, USA; Washington Huskies wide receiver Rome Odunze (1) runs the ball after a catch during the first quarter against the Oregon State Beavers at Reser Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Craig Strobeck-USA TODAY Sports

Since 2011, 34 rookies have carved out the No. 3 role in their passing attack, averaging 8.9 points. Nine (26%) of them reached top-36 status, with 12.9 points per contest.

Odunze has a shot at a WR3 finish despite the target competition, and his price in early drafts reflects that as the WR39. 

When focusing on the long-term outlook with Williams on board at QB and Allen aging, Odunze could join the WR1 conversation as soon as Year 2, making him a SMASH selection at pick three in rookie drafts.

WR – Xavier Worthy | Chiefs

Worthy might be best known for his record-setting 4.21 40-yard dash at the combine, but he isn't just a track star. The former four-star recruit's 29% career target share ranks No. 1 in the star-studded 2024 class. 

Some have concerns about Worthy's size at 5-foot-11 and 165 pounds, but college defenders struggled to disrupt his game. Against man coverage, where smaller WRs can have problems, he ranked second behind Harrison with a 32% target rate. The former Longhorn offers the versatility to stretch the defense horizontally with quick-hitting YAC plays around the line of scrimmage, or he can push the vertical boundary with his deep speed.

While the Chiefs' receiving depth chart is suddenly flush with Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown, Worthy still offers WR3 potential in Year 1. The rookie should see plenty of high-leverage opportunities in a pass-first offense led by Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid and could provide high-end WR2 upside in any games without Rice.

WR – Brian Thomas Jr. | Jaguars

With a 40-yard dash time of 4.33 at 6-foot-3, Thomas offers the size-speed combination that NFL teams love. He was never a high-end target earner in college, and his coming-out party didn’t happen until his final season. However, when QBs did look his way, Thomas rewarded them with a 132.8 QB rating.

BrIan Thomas Jr (11) pick six and scores a touchdown as the LSU Tigers take on the the Army Black Knights in Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, October. 21, 2023.

In college, Thomas used his deep speed to set up his underneath route tree, where he collected 50% of his targets 0 to 9 yards downfield. In the NFL, he will have to prove he can win deep to earn that type of respect, and he must unlock more value in the intermediate range of the field. He offers a ceiling similar to Odunze if he can make this transition.

Thomas's long-term outlook is strong, but he must steal targets from Christian Kirk and Evan Engram. The release of Zay Jones helps, and considering Gabe Davis' three-year target rate of 16%, Thomas is the favorite to be the No. 3 target-earner in the offense. The question is if he can push even higher in Year 1, making him an upside WR4 option.

RB – Jonathon Brooks | Panthers

Brooks is the most complete back in the 2024 class, giving him many outs. As a redshirt sophomore with Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson gone, he busted loose, securing the No. 20 score in the Super Model since 2018. On a per-team-attempt basis, Brooks was the No. 2 Power 5 RB in the class with a 2.22 adjusted yards per attempt (YPTA), and he registered the third-best receiving grade in the class per PFF.

The Panthers might seem like a lousy landing spot, but we must keep our minds open to improvement. Bryce Young is still a young player, and the team added Diontae Johnson, Xavier Legette and Ja'Tavion Sanders in the offseason.

They also beefed up their offensive line by signing guards Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis.  Even if they remain a low-end offense, the RB competition isn't substantial — Brooks should overtake the lead role quickly once healthy.

The biggest question around Brooks is how long it will take him to get healthy. He is coming off a late-season ACL injury. Reports indicate he might not be ready for the start of training camp and the Panthers plan to ease him into action. So, fantasy managers may have to practice patience early in 2024, keeping Brooks on the bench until he gets his shot.

Once his opportunity comes, he could pay off in a colossal way. Running backs that have scored in the same range as Brooks in the Super Model have enjoyed a high success rate in their first two seasons.

  • Top-12 Finishes: 48%
  • Top-24 Finishes: 71%
  • Top-36 Finishes: 90%

Brooks would easily rank in my top 18 RBs if he weren't recovering from ACL surgery.

Dwain McFarland
Dwain McFarland
Dwain is the Lead Fantasy Analyst and Director of Analytics of Fantasy Life. He is best known for the Utilization Report, which led to his first full-time role in the industry at Pro Football Focus. Dwain’s experience and background have helped him craft a unique voice in the fantasy football community. He has placed highly in multiple national season-long contests, including three top-five finishes at the FFPC. Before beginning his fantasy career in 2018, Dwain led product strategy and data and analytics teams for one of the largest healthcare improvement companies in the nation.
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