Jaguars (-1.0) at Lions – 51.5 total
The Ravens had a 99.1% win probability with less than two minutes to go on Sunday. Afterward, Trevor Lawrence decided to string together a 91-yard drive capped by a touchdown to Marvin Jones. Jaguars fans collectively cheered and sighed in relief as their quarterback took a much-needed step forward. And there’s not much standing in his path in Week 13.
Four of the last six quarterbacks to face the Lions have finished in the top 12. And each has done it somewhat differently. We watched Josh Allen work the interior on Thanksgiving. Daniel Jones took matters into his own hands. And Tua Tagovailoa, well, he lost his mind in the dome. With Travis Etienne nursing a foot injury, Jacksonville’s passing attack takes center stage and every receiver becomes an option. But Zay Jones sticks out.
Jones led the team in targets and was on the receiving end of the hole shot from Lawrence that set up their game-winning score. But Jones isn’t a flash in the pan. He has led the team in targets over the last eight games (53). Plus, his 1.47 YPRR aligns with Christian Kirk’s (1.49 YPRR) despite primarily operating from the outside. Their playoff hopes are dead, but the future looks bright with a chance to build on their success against Detroit, who is in a similar spot.
Even with the loss, the Lions kept Buffalo on their toes (hooves?) the entire game. They averaged 38.6 yards per drive and were 12th in EPA per play. With a healthy Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jared Goff is fifth in EPA per play among all starting quarterbacks. Against the Jaguars, the two should continue to connect and elevate the offense.
But don’t forget about Jamaal Williams. I mean, you can’t since he gets all the rushing scores, but the workload is also hard to ignore. Since D’Andre Swift returned, Williams has nearly twice as many third-down totes (9 to 5) with 75.0% of the carries inside the 10-yard line. When Detroit gets into scoring position, we know there are only two options as to who is getting the ball.
