Justin Fields Traded to Steelers

The NFL decided to barge into the Saturday night news cycle in a major way: The Bears have traded Justin Fields to the Steelers.

Three quick notes:

  1. The return is a conditional sixth-round pick that can become a fourth-rounder depending on playing time.
  2. There reportedly won’t be a competition for starting QB duties between Fields and Russell Wilson.
  3. THERE WON’T BE A COMPETITION FOR STARTING QB DUTIES BETWEEN FIELDS AND Wilson?!

Look, Fields is hardly guaranteed to find newfound success with the Steelers, but it’s not like he’s been significantly worse than Wilson (36 next November) during the past two seasons.

Maybe the answer to this competition winds up being a simple “No”; these are the only two QBs with 100 or more INTs and sacks taken over the last two seasons after all (s/o StatMuse).

The latter point has been particularly rough to stomach. Both QBs are certainly capable of extending the play, but they stand out as two of the league’s worst signal-callers in terms of allowing pressured dropbacks to end in sacks:

Worst percentage of pressured dropbacks to result in a sack since 2022

Passing the football is obviously the most important part of being a QB (thank you for attending my Ted Talk), but it’s at a minimum curious that Pittsburgh would already shoot down the idea of a competition because of a dude they agreed to terms with *checks notes* six days ago.

Oftentimes guaranteed money is the problem in a situation like this, yet Fields ($3.2 million) will actually be getting paid more money by the Rooney family than Russ ($1.21 million) this season.

It’s not like the artist known as DangeRuss has been in a different stratosphere than Fields when it comes to passing efficiency over the past two years:

Fields and Wilson among 46 QBs with 300-plus dropbacks 2022-23

  • EPA per dropback: Fields (+0.012, 31st), Wilson (+0.020, 29th)
  • Completion percentage over expected: Fields (-0.8, 31st), Wilson (+1.7%, 14th)
  • PFF pass grade: Fields (61.1, 38th), Wilson (69.8, 24th)
  • Passer rating: Fields (85.8, 29th), Wilson (91.0, 20th)
  • Yards per attempt: Fields (7, 25th), Wilson (7.1, 19th)

Yes, Wilson’s numbers are overall better, and maybe a change of scenery returns him to prime-level production. He still showed off a penchant for creating some off-script magic in 2023; perhaps working inside of Arthur Smith’s run-heavy, play-action scheme while tossing the occasional moon ball to George Pickens brings out the best version of Mr. Unlimited.

Also yes, only Lamar Jackson (61.1) has averaged more rushing yards per game than Fields (55.5) among all QBs in NFL history to start at least 16 games. The rising fourth-year QB is absolutely electric with the football in his hands, something that almost seems to be taken for granted at this point – and always seemingly left off the social media QB comparison charts. 

Fantasy Football Impact of Justin Fields Trade to Steelers

In terms of potential fantasy upside, it’d certainly be a lot cooler if Fields manages to make this a competition through fantastic practice performance. His aforementioned rushing prowess would make him a far more appealing target than Wilson.

Overall, Fields (18.8 fantasy points per game, QB6) has easily out-produced Wilson (16.1, QB16) over the past two seasons. High-volume rushing QBs join elite pass-catching RBs as the closest thing our great American pastime has to cheat codes in fantasy land.

However, it’s probably better for the Steelers’ skill-position talents to have Russ under center:

  • Life with a dual-threat QB like Fields is historically not great for RBs: They scramble instead of checking down (Bears RBs rank 28th in targets since 2022, Broncos 1st) and also tend to factor into the rushing conversation on the goal line (Bears RBs rank 25th in carries inside the five-yard line since 2022, Broncos 21st).
  • Pass-game volume: While Arthur Smith will probably look to establish the run to a heavy extent regardless of which QB is under center, the difference in scramble rate between Fields (12.5%, 1st) and Wilson (5.8%, 10th) should lead to the most opportunities possible for the team’s top pass-game options (George Pickens).

Of course, Fields just got done “freeing” D.J. Moore to the tune of a breakout 96-1,364-8 campaign; Pickens should have more than enough target volume to himself after the Diontae Johnson trade to post boom-or-bust WR3 production at worst regardless of who winds up under center.

At the end of the day: Good for the Steelers on acquiring a 25-year-old former first-round QB for a fraction of the cost that many (at least the public) believed would be possible just a few short weeks ago.

An offense led by Russell Wilson and Justin Fields might have the same ending as one engineered by Kenny Pickett and Mason Rudolph, but hey, at least it figures to be a helluva lot more entertaining story.

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