The reigning undisputed champions of the NFL just keep on keeping on. Last season's Chiefs squad looked more mortal than ever after an 11-6 regular season featured a middling +77 point differential (just fourth in the AFC), but patented Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce playoff excellence combined with one of the league's stingiest defenses was (again) enough to get the job done.

And now Kansas City looks to do what no NFL team has ever done: win three consecutive Super Bowls. Of course, their roster will look quite a bit different than it did the last two years. Here's a quick overview of the Chiefs' fantasy-relevant coaching staff and major offseason moves (QB/RB/WR/TE) to this point:

  • Head coach: Andy Reid (128-51 in 11 seasons with the Chiefs)
  • Offensive coordinator: Matt Nagy (66.7% pass-play rate in 2023, 2nd)
  • Offseason arrivals: WR Marquise Brown (one year, $7 million), QB Carson Wentz (one year, $3.3 million), and TE Irv Smith Jr. (one year, $1.3 million)
  • Offseason departures: WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Bills), QB Blaine Gabbert (free agent), RB Jerick McKinnon (free agent), WR Richie James (free agent), TE Jody Fortson (Dolphins), and TE Blake Bell (free agent)
  • Fantasy-relevant draft picks: Texas WR Xavier Worthy (1.28) and TCU TE Jared Wiley (4.131)
  • Reigning Pro Football Focus (PFF) offensive line rank and returning starters: No. 18, 4/5

Tacking on BYU OL Kingsley Suamataia to the offensive front should hopefully help produce better results than what the group managed last year. After all, keeping No. 15 upright and healthy is priority No. 1 in Kansas City.

Kansas City Chiefs Fantasy Football Outlook: Position by Position

Quarterback

The 2023 version of Mahomes accomplished the ultimate goal of winning a ring. However, that same 2023 version of Mahomes was also more reluctant to throw the ball downfield than ever before:

  • 2018: 9.5-yard aDOT (6th among 31 qualifying QBs)
  • 2019: 8.7 (14/30)
  • 2020: 8.9 (12/32)
  • 2021: 7.6 (26/31)
  • 2022: 7.7 (21/31)
  • 2023: 6.8 (30/30)

Of course, the Chiefs didn't exactly make life easy for Mahomes when he did go deep last season. This offense had the league's third-best overall catchable pass rate but was also one of just three teams to flat out drop at least five targets thrown 20-plus yards downfield. Can you blame the man for maybe thinking twice about going deep with the WRs he had last year?

Ultimately, fantasy football managers shouldn't really care how far their QB throws the football on average. Style points don't count for anything extra in our game, but realize that this newfound conservatism did indeed produce the worst fantasy version of Mahomes that we've seen to date. Here's how Mahomes has ranked in fantasy points per game (PPG) each season since becoming a starter:

  • 2018: 26.1 fantasy PPG (QB1)
  • 2019: 20.5 (QB6)
  • 2020: 25 (QB1)
  • 2021: 21.3 (QB5)
  • 2022: 24.5 (QB3)
  • 2023: 17.5 (QB12)
Patrick Mahomes

Feb 11, 2024; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) throws a pass against San Francisco 49ers defensive end Nick Bosa (97) in the fourth quarter in Super Bowl LVIII at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

A fantasy QB12 finish in 2023 is hardly horrendous, but it wasn't exactly what drafters had in mind when they took the two-time first-team All-Pro with an early-round pick. Nobody will ever confuse Mahomes with a pure pocket passer, but his rushing production lags behind some of the position's more high-volume dual-threat talents. Because of that, any shortcoming in passing efficiency makes it tough for Mahomes to compete with the Josh Allen's and Jalen Hurts of the world in fantasy land.

The good news is that the Chiefs went out of their way to provide a way better supporting cast than what Mahomes was dealing with last year. One-trick-pony field-stretchers Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Justin Watson have seemingly been replaced in the starting lineup by the fastest kid alive (Xavier Worthy) and long-time Ravens and Cardinals WR1 Marquise Brown. It probably still isn't the league's best WR room, but Kansas City certainly has an upgrade over last season's much-maligned WR group.

At the end of the day, Mahomes ranks first in career fantasy PPG (22.4) in NFL history. His passing TD rate is also poised for positive regression with the addition of multiple speedy weapons to the table. It seems more likely than not that 2023's relative lack of high-end fantasy production will be a blip on the radar as opposed to a sign of things to come.

Bottom line: The asinine goal-line rushing volume that Allen and Hurts bring to the table places them in rarified early-round territory in fantasy land, but Mahomes is in play anywhere after that.

I don't necessarily blame folks for preferring more high-volume dual-threat options like Lamar Jackson or Anthony Richardson, either. Just realize that Mahomes has proven capable of booming more than just about anyone in fantasy land when things are right. I'm loving the opportunity to stack him at a lower ADP this year with Kelce and/or Brown in Rounds 3 to 5 in early best ball drafts. 

Running Back

  • RB1: Isiah Pacheco (Fantasy Life consensus rank: RB11)
  • RB2: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB65)
  • RB3: Keaontay Ingram
  • RB4: Deneric Prince
  • RB5: Louis Rees-Zammit

Pacheco might run like the ground has taken everything he's ever loved, but the man has also functioned as most people's idea of an above-average rusher over the past two seasons. Here's how Pacheco ranks among 49 RBs with 200-plus carries from 2022 to 2023:

  • PFF rush grade: 84.1 (No. 19)
  • Yards per carry: 4.7 (No. 12)
  • Yards after contact per carry: 3 (No. 18)
  • Missed tackles forced per carry: 0.15 (tied for No. 36)
  • Explosive run rate: 9.3% (No. 31)
  • Stuff rate: 14.4% (No. 7)

He also ranked 14th and ninth in Next-Gen Stats' rushing yards over expected per carry in 2022 and 2023, respectively. You'd be hard-pressed to find an advanced metric that paints the former seventh-round pick as anything other than a solid NFL RB.

Isiah Pacheco

Feb 11, 2024; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco (10) runs with the ball against the San Francisco 49ers during overtime of Super Bowl LVIII at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Pacheco has also been a reliable receiver, having caught an incredible 75 of his 82 career targets. That's good enough to be the single-highest completion rate (91.5%) among 154 qualifying pass-catchers.

Now, Pacheco's demonstrated good but not great all-around talent isn't the central reason why he's being priced as a top-12 fantasy RB heading into 2024. It's more so the lack of competition on one of the league's most efficient offenses.

With Jerick McKinnon gone, the only backfield addition of note was rugby star Louis Rees-Zammit, who probably profiles as more of a special teams contributor (if anything) than a real threat to Pacheco's near-every-down role. And as for CEH, here's a reminder that he saw a total of seven touches in the Chiefs' final three playoff games last season.

And it certainly helps that Pacheco plays on a Chiefs offense that ranked seventh in expected RB PPR PPG in 2023. That was thanks in large part due to Kansas City ranking sixth in targets to the RB position (108) as well as a newfound willingness to run the ball near the goal line. In 2022, the Chiefs' pass-play rate inside the five-yard line was a league-high 64.9%, but that dropped to a relatively lower mark of 52.6% in 2023.

While the Chiefs aren't the league's most willing team to feature one single RB, McKinnon's departure should open up even more fantasy-friendly pass-down work for Pacheco. That also boosts CEH's handcuff upside, as the former first-round pick's modest advantages in snaps (67 vs. 50), carries (24 vs. 8), and targets (8 vs. 7) over McKinnon in two games with Pacheco sidelined last season could be amplified in 2024.

Bottom line: Fantasy Life Projections have Pacheco racking up 259 touches in 2024, which is more than Jahmyr Gibbs and Kyren Williams, both of whom are being drafted multiple rounds earlier.

Throw in the demonstrated solid efficiency and the potential for an elite offensive environment, and it's not hard to make a strong case for the third-year back at the Round 4-5 turn. I also don't hate throwing literal last-round darts at CEH. After all, he'll immediately be on the cover of waiver wire articles across the industry if Pacheco were to miss any game action this coming year.

Wide Receiver

  • WR1: Marquise Brown (Fantasy Life consensus rank: WR34)
  • WR2: Xavier Worthy (WR40)
  • WR3: Rashee Rice (WR43)
  • WR4: Kadarius Toney
  • WR5: Skyy Moore
  • WR6: Justin Watson
  • WR7: Justyn Ross
  • WR8: Mecole Hardman

Brown's one-year deal with the Chiefs is only worth up to $11 million. Sadly, the artist known as Hollywood probably could have earned quite a bit more on the open market had he not dealt with such severe hamstring, foot, and heel injuries during the last two seasons. Only Aaron Jones (7) spent more total games on the injury report listed as questionable than Brown (6) in 2023 per Scott Barrett.

That said, the last time he was fully healthy, Brown was the PPR WR5 during the first six weeks of 2022. We’re talking about a 122-1,374-9 pace over that span, and the dude looked good while doing it.

Look for Brown to bring back some deep-ball goodness to a Kansas City passing attack that struggled mightily in that area last year. Many fantasy players, myself included, subscribe to the idea that WRs largely own their average depth of target (aDOT), and Brown has accordingly never registered a mark under 11.7 yards.

Marquise Brown

Nov 12, 2023; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Marquise Brown (2) is unable to catch a pass against the Atlanta Falcons during the first half at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Now just imagine him in an offense with, you know, a consistently excellent deep-ball passer who might be the most talented QB of all time. And then look at the catchable deep ball rate (20-plus yards) for the three teams that Brown has been a member of since 2019:

  • Chiefs (49%, 7th)
  • Cardinals (47%, 15th)
  • Ravens (41.5%, 31st)

Of course, Brown isn't the only speedy WR the Chiefs added to the equation this offseason. Enter rookie Xavier Worthy, who just set the NFL Combine record for the 40-yard dash (4.21 seconds). And he's not just a speedster, either. Give the man credit for having produced three years of solid numbers with the Longhorns:

  • 2021: 62-981-12
  • 2022: 60-760-9
  • 2023: 75-1,014-5

Worthy plays fast and offers big-play ability in the screen game as well as stretching the field. Here are some of my personal comps for Worthy after grinding the ole film:

  • Rich man's Kalif Raymond
  • Who we wanted K.J. Hamler to be
  • D-Jax with worse ball-tracking skills
  • Will Fuller pre-shattered finger
  • Sonic the Hedgehog

Worthy is a strong addition to the squad, especially if the Chiefs have the luxury of not being forced to put too much on his plate from Day 1. This will depend on how long Rashee Rice's expected multi-game suspension winds up being. Additional reports have speculated that eight-plus games could be incoming, but there's also a possibility that a lengthy legal process could result in no punishment until the 2025 season.

There's little doubt that Rice profiles as the No. 1 WR here when on the field. The rising second-year talent is fresh off averaging the seventh-most yards per route run (YPRR) of any rookie WR over the past 10 years and offers all sorts of juice after the catch. Plus, no team threw more WR screens than the Chiefs last season, and these sorts of manufactured touches are a godsend in full-PPR formats.

Expect a rotation of sorts between Kadarius Toney, Mecole Hardman, Skyy Moore, and Justin Watson behind Brown and Worthy for as long as Rice is sidelined. While I've (sadly) been a Toney truther for years and maintain that he's a dark horse to win a league-wide game of tag, none of these complementary options look worthy of even a late-round dart throw. Kansas City looks like an offense that has a clear-cut depth chart for the top three WRs barring injury or suspension.

Bottom line: Both Mecole Hardman (WR32) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR36) provided WR3 production on a PPR PPG basis back in 2022, so there's a decent floor here even if none of the Chiefs WRs project as a true No. 1 WR who can flirt with Tyreek Hill's elite ceiling.

Fantasy Life Projections have Mahomes leading the NFL in passing yards as well, so don't be surprised if each of Brown (WR32 ADP, pick No. 51 overall), Worthy (WR37, 62), and Rice (WR43, 71.8) provides plenty of boom weeks, even if some duds weeks are also to be expected when all three are available. All three of them are solid WR4/WR5 options in best ball land, where we conveniently don't have to worry about which to start or sit each week.

Tight End

Many have been quick to anoint Lions TE Sam LaPorta as the fantasy TE1 heading into 2024, but is that really the right move?

After all, Kelce’s 14.6 PPR PPG last season led all TEs who played at least eight games in 2023. He continues to play with the game’s best QB and projects for more targets than (almost) anyone at the position.

Maybe a drastic falloff courtesy of Father Time is coming, but his 7-71-0, 5-75-2, 11-116-1, and 9-93-0 playoff performances sure didn’t make Kelce look like someone who's suddenly incapable of putting up big-time numbers. Here’s last season’s PPR PPG TE leaderboard when we include playoff production:

  1. Travis Kelce (16.1)
  2. T.J. Hockenson (14.6)
  3. Sam LaPorta (14.2)
  4. Evan Engram (13.6)
  5. David Njoku (12.8)
Travis Kelce

Feb 11, 2024; Paradise, Nevada, USA; San Francisco 49ers safety Ji'Ayir Brown (27) pushes Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) out of bounds during the fourth quarter of Super Bowl LVIII at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The biggest red flag for Kelce involves Father Time. He'll be 35 years old in October, and the four-time first-team All-Pro already showed signs of decline with career-low marks in yards per reception (10.6) and yards per target (8.1) last season. Plus, there isn't much history of elderly TEs overly balling out in fantasy land.

Of course, Kelce has plenty of room to fall off and still meet value considering that his ADP is cheaper than ever. From 2018 to 2023, his overall ADP was pick No. 25, No. 15, No. 20, No. 7, No. 14, and No. 5, respectively. This year? Kelce can be had at a new low ADP of 38.9 overall.

Bottom line: The youthful upside and potential for similar targets from guys like LaPorta, Trey McBride, Mark Andrews, Dalton Kincaid, and Kyle Pitts presents a bigger top tier, but this shouldn't necessarily be viewed as a big downgrade to Kelce's production in 2024.

Hell, the presence of the two new field-stretching WRs in Kansas City could feasibly even open up the underneath and intermediate areas of the field for Kelce the most since Tyreek Hill was around. Kelce remains my overall TE1 for 2024 and is a player that I'm very interested in clicking on in Round 4.

Kansas City Chiefs 2024 Season Prediction

The Chiefs were the only defense to not allow 30 points in a single game last year, but their secondary depth will be tested after having lost CB L'Jarius Sneed (Titans) and S Mike Edwards (Bills) during this offseason. Still, locking up all-world DL Chris Jones is a major plus, and this unit might not need to be as dominant anyway if the offense can get back to partying like it's 2022 again.

Friendly reminder that this team has won 10-plus games in nine consecutive seasons. The 11.5 win total is admittingly high, but I'm taking the over on that number. The Chiefs are the back-to-back Super Bowl champs for a reason, and the AFC West arguably looks weaker than it has in years.

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